{
  "version": 1,
  "status": "specified_not_yet_solved_or_agreed_policy",
  "service": "Same hourly final electricity demand at customer meter, plus explicitly identical ancillary and adequacy service",
  "demand": "Reuse independent2050central93.3656TWh final demand as conditional working case; low/high and heat/flex sensitivities retained; do not relabel forecast.",
  "horizon": "2026–2050 build path plus2051–2085continuation sensitivity; investment after2050cannot be made artificially free/expensive by horizon cutoff.",
  "financial_boundary": "Constant2025CHF for future integrated model; publish original money, sector cost index and FX date when conversion is actually performed. This evidence package makes no foreign/base-year conversions.",
  "modes": [
    {
      "id": "connected",
      "imports": "Hourly border-capacity/price scenarios with correlated neighbour shortages, EU/legal/market-access sensitivity",
      "exports": "Hourly dispatch/price revenue, with congestion and saturation"
    },
    {
      "id": "restricted-import",
      "imports": "Explicit severe common hourly/seasonal limits, not total domestic-only by stealth",
      "exports": "Same stated border rules; do not assume export acceptance during neighbours surplus"
    },
    {
      "id": "domestic-only",
      "imports": "Zero normal imports; specify whether emergency-only assistance is allowed",
      "exports": "Report gross and net exports; evaluate zero-revenue/spill sensitivity"
    }
  ],
  "retention": "All portfolios start from same existing hydro, grids and assets; identical nuclear safe-lifetime options, capex and retirement decision rules. No free inherited nuclear/hydro for only one portfolio.",
  "candidate_sets": [
    "Nuclear retention/extension + hydro + PV/wind/flex/storage",
    "Same starting fleet with new nuclear options available",
    "Same starting fleet without new nuclear, endogenous PV/wind/storage/flex/low-carbon firm alternatives"
  ],
  "technology_baseline": "Demonstrated technologies at fixed current performance/cost, no learning assumed; 2050improvements separately sourced and tested.",
  "reliability": {
    "screening": "Zero unserved demand in each named deterministic hourly test, cyclic storage, initial reserves and capacity limits.",
    "probabilistic": "Report EENS and LOLE, Monte Carlo forced/common-mode outages, multi-year weather/drought and grid contingencies. Provisional sensitivities LOLE1/3/6hours/year are analyst thresholds, not claimed Swiss statutory standards.",
    "critical_stresses": [
      "Nuclear planned and forced outages; largest unit and common-mode failures",
      "Hydro drought, usable water bounds, climate/inflow effects",
      "Coincident cold heat demand, weak wind/sun and neighbour scarcity",
      "Construction delay and commissioning ramp",
      "Battery usable-energy fade, maintenance and interconnection failure"
    ]
  },
  "carbon": "Report operational and lifecycle emissions for every option, including imports and fuel supply; impose identical annual cap before ranking; no arbitrary uncosted carbon-neutral fuel assumption.",
  "owner_contract": "Separate owner NPV, cash/debt coverage and market volume with voluntary PPAs, tolling, reserve and water rights. Unsupported and public-supported financing separate; no assumption owners accept uncompensated dispatch.",
  "minimum_missing": [
    "Swiss site-specific new-build bids, schedules and financing/risk allocations",
    "Matched hydro reservoir/cascade/pump/turbine topology, inflows, rights and concession terms",
    "Nodal or zonal grid reinforcement costs and adequacy/operational validation",
    "Hourly import/export supply curves and market saturation under each mix",
    "Buildable land/siting/supply-chain ceilings; correlated failures",
    "Demand-response comfort/participation contracts; measured future heat profiles",
    "Full waste/decommissioning and storage replacement/capacity-maintenance cash-flow boundaries"
  ],
  "not_proven": "Existing perfect-foresight pooled-hydro national model is not a least-cost optimization of buildable portfolios and not an investor business case."
}