{
  "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17",
  "status": "explanation_of_existing_frozen_scenarios",
  "year": 2050,
  "boundary": "Annual final electricity, excluding network losses, storage charging and net exports",
  "cases": [
    {
      "key": "lower_demand",
      "label": "Lower demand",
      "description": "Less growth, stronger efficiency gains",
      "claim_id": "lower-demand-2050",
      "total_twh": 60.84222205968055,
      "inputs": {
        "population_million": 9.5,
        "services_activity": 1.05,
        "industry_activity": 0.95,
        "road_activity": 1.0,
        "other_transport_activity": 1.05,
        "households_electric_intensity": 0.7,
        "services_electric_intensity": 0.75,
        "industry_electric_intensity": 0.75,
        "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
        "space_heat_intensity": 0.6,
        "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
        "water_heat_intensity": 0.85,
        "space_heat_spf": 4.0,
        "water_heat_spf": 3.3,
        "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
        "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
        "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
        "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
        "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
        "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
        "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
        "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
        "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
        "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.9,
        "cooling_service_multiplier": 1.5,
        "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.65,
        "process_heat_intensity": 0.75,
        "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
        "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
        "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
        "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
        "process_heatpump_share": 0.4,
        "process_heatpump_cop": 4,
        "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
        "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
        "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.15,
        "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.21,
        "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
        "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
        "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.03,
        "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
        "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85,
        "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.0,
        "residual_twh": 0,
        "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
        "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
        "district_heat_increment_twh": 0.0,
        "effective_loss_fraction": 0.04
      }
    },
    {
      "key": "central",
      "label": "Central case",
      "description": "Working reference for our proposed strategy",
      "claim_id": "central-demand-2050",
      "total_twh": 93.36564180546513,
      "inputs": {
        "population_million": 10.5,
        "services_activity": 1.25,
        "industry_activity": 1.15,
        "road_activity": 1.15,
        "other_transport_activity": 1.2,
        "households_electric_intensity": 0.85,
        "services_electric_intensity": 0.9,
        "industry_electric_intensity": 0.9,
        "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
        "space_heat_intensity": 0.75,
        "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
        "water_heat_intensity": 0.95,
        "space_heat_spf": 3.3,
        "water_heat_spf": 2.7,
        "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
        "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
        "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
        "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
        "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
        "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
        "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
        "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
        "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
        "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.6,
        "cooling_service_multiplier": 2.0,
        "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.8,
        "process_heat_intensity": 0.9,
        "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
        "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
        "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
        "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
        "process_heatpump_share": 0.25,
        "process_heatpump_cop": 2.8,
        "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
        "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
        "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.18,
        "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.26,
        "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.15,
        "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.15,
        "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.045,
        "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
        "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95,
        "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.0,
        "residual_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
        "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
        "district_heat_increment_twh": 0.0,
        "effective_loss_fraction": 0.06
      }
    },
    {
      "key": "higher_demand",
      "label": "Higher demand",
      "description": "More growth, weaker efficiency gains",
      "claim_id": "higher-demand-2050",
      "total_twh": 147.18361501663603,
      "inputs": {
        "population_million": 11.5,
        "services_activity": 1.5,
        "industry_activity": 1.4,
        "road_activity": 1.35,
        "other_transport_activity": 1.4,
        "households_electric_intensity": 1.0,
        "services_electric_intensity": 1.05,
        "industry_electric_intensity": 1.05,
        "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
        "space_heat_intensity": 0.9,
        "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
        "water_heat_intensity": 1.05,
        "space_heat_spf": 2.5,
        "water_heat_spf": 2.2,
        "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
        "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
        "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
        "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
        "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
        "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
        "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
        "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
        "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
        "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0,
        "cooling_service_multiplier": 3,
        "cooling_electric_intensity": 1,
        "process_heat_intensity": 1.05,
        "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
        "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
        "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
        "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
        "process_heatpump_share": 0.05,
        "process_heatpump_cop": 2,
        "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
        "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
        "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.23,
        "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.35,
        "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.5,
        "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.5,
        "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.075,
        "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
        "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1,
        "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.15,
        "residual_twh": 2.5,
        "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
        "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
        "district_heat_increment_twh": 0.0,
        "effective_loss_fraction": 0.08
      }
    }
  ],
  "displayed_inputs": [
    {
      "key": "population",
      "parameters": [
        "population_million"
      ],
      "label": "Residents",
      "description": "People living in Switzerland.",
      "scale": 1,
      "offset": 0,
      "unit": "million residents",
      "display": "number",
      "values": [
        {
          "scenario": "lower_demand",
          "raw_values": [
            9.5
          ],
          "value": 9.5,
          "claim_id": "demand-input-population-lower-demand"
        },
        {
          "scenario": "central",
          "raw_values": [
            10.5
          ],
          "value": 10.5,
          "claim_id": "demand-input-population-central"
        },
        {
          "scenario": "higher_demand",
          "raw_values": [
            11.5
          ],
          "value": 11.5,
          "claim_id": "demand-input-population-higher-demand"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "services",
      "parameters": [
        "services_activity"
      ],
      "label": "Service-sector activity",
      "description": "Floor area and activity in services, including agriculture. This is not a GDP forecast.",
      "scale": 100,
      "offset": -100,
      "unit": "% versus 2024",
      "display": "change",
      "values": [
        {
          "scenario": "lower_demand",
          "raw_values": [
            1.05
          ],
          "value": 5.0,
          "claim_id": "demand-input-services-lower-demand"
        },
        {
          "scenario": "central",
          "raw_values": [
            1.25
          ],
          "value": 25.0,
          "claim_id": "demand-input-services-central"
        },
        {
          "scenario": "higher_demand",
          "raw_values": [
            1.5
          ],
          "value": 50.0,
          "claim_id": "demand-input-services-higher-demand"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "industry",
      "parameters": [
        "industry_activity"
      ],
      "label": "Industrial activity",
      "description": "How much industrial activity the model assumes. This is not a GDP forecast.",
      "scale": 100,
      "offset": -100,
      "unit": "% versus 2024",
      "display": "change",
      "values": [
        {
          "scenario": "lower_demand",
          "raw_values": [
            0.95
          ],
          "value": -5.0,
          "claim_id": "demand-input-industry-lower-demand"
        },
        {
          "scenario": "central",
          "raw_values": [
            1.15
          ],
          "value": 15.0,
          "claim_id": "demand-input-industry-central"
        },
        {
          "scenario": "higher_demand",
          "raw_values": [
            1.4
          ],
          "value": 40.0,
          "claim_id": "demand-input-industry-higher-demand"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "travel",
      "parameters": [
        "road_activity"
      ],
      "label": "Road travel",
      "description": "Total distance driven by the covered road vehicles.",
      "scale": 100,
      "offset": -100,
      "unit": "% versus 2024",
      "display": "change",
      "values": [
        {
          "scenario": "lower_demand",
          "raw_values": [
            1.0
          ],
          "value": 0.0,
          "claim_id": "demand-input-travel-lower-demand"
        },
        {
          "scenario": "central",
          "raw_values": [
            1.15
          ],
          "value": 15.0,
          "claim_id": "demand-input-travel-central"
        },
        {
          "scenario": "higher_demand",
          "raw_values": [
            1.35
          ],
          "value": 35.0,
          "claim_id": "demand-input-travel-higher-demand"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "existing-electricity",
      "parameters": [
        "services_electric_intensity",
        "industry_electric_intensity"
      ],
      "label": "Electricity per unit of business activity",
      "description": "Existing service and industrial uses, excluding separately modelled building heat and cooling. New electric uses are added separately.",
      "scale": 100,
      "offset": -100,
      "unit": "% versus 2024",
      "display": "change",
      "values": [
        {
          "scenario": "lower_demand",
          "raw_values": [
            0.75,
            0.75
          ],
          "value": -25.0,
          "claim_id": "demand-input-existing-electricity-lower-demand"
        },
        {
          "scenario": "central",
          "raw_values": [
            0.9,
            0.9
          ],
          "value": -10.0,
          "claim_id": "demand-input-existing-electricity-central"
        },
        {
          "scenario": "higher_demand",
          "raw_values": [
            1.05,
            1.05
          ],
          "value": 5.0,
          "claim_id": "demand-input-existing-electricity-higher-demand"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "heat",
      "parameters": [
        "space_heat_intensity"
      ],
      "label": "Space heat needed per unit of activity",
      "description": "Heat per resident in homes, or per unit of business activity. Insulation and heating controls can reduce it. Weather stays unchanged.",
      "scale": 100,
      "offset": -100,
      "unit": "% versus 2024",
      "display": "change",
      "values": [
        {
          "scenario": "lower_demand",
          "raw_values": [
            0.6
          ],
          "value": -40.0,
          "claim_id": "demand-input-heat-lower-demand"
        },
        {
          "scenario": "central",
          "raw_values": [
            0.75
          ],
          "value": -25.0,
          "claim_id": "demand-input-heat-central"
        },
        {
          "scenario": "higher_demand",
          "raw_values": [
            0.9
          ],
          "value": -10.0,
          "claim_id": "demand-input-heat-higher-demand"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "heat-pump",
      "parameters": [
        "space_heat_spf"
      ],
      "label": "New heat pumps for space heating",
      "description": "Heat delivered per unit of electricity over a season. A larger number means less electricity for the same heat.",
      "scale": 1,
      "offset": 0,
      "unit": "kWh heat / kWh electricity",
      "display": "number",
      "values": [
        {
          "scenario": "lower_demand",
          "raw_values": [
            4.0
          ],
          "value": 4.0,
          "claim_id": "demand-input-heat-pump-lower-demand"
        },
        {
          "scenario": "central",
          "raw_values": [
            3.3
          ],
          "value": 3.3,
          "claim_id": "demand-input-heat-pump-central"
        },
        {
          "scenario": "higher_demand",
          "raw_values": [
            2.5
          ],
          "value": 2.5,
          "claim_id": "demand-input-heat-pump-higher-demand"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "key": "car",
      "parameters": [
        "cars_battery_kwh_per_km"
      ],
      "label": "Electric-car consumption",
      "description": "Energy at the battery per 100 km. Charging losses are added separately.",
      "scale": 100,
      "offset": 0,
      "unit": "kWh / 100 km",
      "display": "number",
      "values": [
        {
          "scenario": "lower_demand",
          "raw_values": [
            0.15
          ],
          "value": 15.0,
          "claim_id": "demand-input-car-lower-demand"
        },
        {
          "scenario": "central",
          "raw_values": [
            0.18
          ],
          "value": 18.0,
          "claim_id": "demand-input-car-central"
        },
        {
          "scenario": "higher_demand",
          "raw_values": [
            0.23
          ],
          "value": 23.0,
          "claim_id": "demand-input-car-higher-demand"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "all_different_inputs": [
    {
      "parameter": "population_million",
      "description": "2050 population; no official population projection embedded",
      "unit": "million residents",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 9.5,
        "central": 10.5,
        "higher_demand": 11.5
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "services_activity",
      "description": "Service floor area/activity, including agriculture; independent of household population multiplier",
      "unit": "2024=1",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 1.05,
        "central": 1.25,
        "higher_demand": 1.5
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "industry_activity",
      "description": "Industrial activity, not a GDP forecast",
      "unit": "2024=1",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.95,
        "central": 1.15,
        "higher_demand": 1.4
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "road_activity",
      "description": "Common road activity multiplier; modal shifts not inferred",
      "unit": "2024 vehicle-km=1",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 1.0,
        "central": 1.15,
        "higher_demand": 1.35
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "other_transport_activity",
      "description": "Retained rail, tram, trolleybus and other electric transport",
      "unit": "2024=1",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 1.05,
        "central": 1.2,
        "higher_demand": 1.4
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "households_electric_intensity",
      "description": "Non-heating, non-space-cooling electricity per resident",
      "unit": "2024=1",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.7,
        "central": 0.85,
        "higher_demand": 1.0
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "services_electric_intensity",
      "description": "Retained electricity per unit of service activity",
      "unit": "2024=1",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.75,
        "central": 0.9,
        "higher_demand": 1.05
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "industry_electric_intensity",
      "description": "Retained electricity including existing electric process heat, per activity",
      "unit": "2024=1",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.75,
        "central": 0.9,
        "higher_demand": 1.05
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "space_heat_intensity",
      "description": "Heat per unit of activity: retrofit, controls and heat-service assumptions; same 2024 weather basis",
      "unit": "2024 heat service=1",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.6,
        "central": 0.75,
        "higher_demand": 0.9
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "water_heat_intensity",
      "description": "Hot-water heat per unit of activity",
      "unit": "2024 heat service=1",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.85,
        "central": 0.95,
        "higher_demand": 1.05
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "space_heat_spf",
      "description": "New heat-pump seasonal generator/system ratio, including new auxiliaries; not cold-hour COP",
      "unit": "kWh heat/kWh electricity",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 4.0,
        "central": 3.3,
        "higher_demand": 2.5
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "water_heat_spf",
      "description": "New hot-water heat-pump seasonal ratio, at the generator/charging boundary",
      "unit": "kWh heat/kWh electricity",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 3.3,
        "central": 2.7,
        "higher_demand": 2.2
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "household_auxiliary_retirement",
      "description": "Explicit credit for retired legacy auxiliaries to limit double counting with new heat-pump SPF; technology allocation unresolved",
      "unit": "share of identified 2024 heating auxiliaries",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.9,
        "central": 0.6,
        "higher_demand": 0
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "cooling_service_multiplier",
      "description": "Additional cooling service before activity and efficiency; not a climate projection",
      "unit": "2024 space-cooling service=1",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 1.5,
        "central": 2.0,
        "higher_demand": 3
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "cooling_electric_intensity",
      "description": "Cooling efficiency improvement; process refrigeration stays in retained electricity",
      "unit": "2024 electricity/cooling service=1",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.65,
        "central": 0.8,
        "higher_demand": 1
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "process_heat_intensity",
      "description": "Useful industrial process heat per activity",
      "unit": "2024 heat service=1",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.75,
        "central": 0.9,
        "higher_demand": 1.05
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "process_heatpump_share",
      "description": "Assumed overlap with below-100C process demand, checked against published marginal bounds",
      "unit": "share of converted process input",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.4,
        "central": 0.25,
        "higher_demand": 0.05
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "process_heatpump_cop",
      "description": "Industrial heat-pump conversion case; source/sink feasibility not resolved",
      "unit": "kWh heat/kWh electricity",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 4,
        "central": 2.8,
        "higher_demand": 2
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "cars_battery_kwh_per_km",
      "description": "Fleet-average assumption; charging losses added once",
      "unit": "battery kWh/vehicle-km",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.15,
        "central": 0.18,
        "higher_demand": 0.23
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "vans_battery_kwh_per_km",
      "description": "Swiss-registered light-goods activity basis",
      "unit": "battery kWh/vehicle-km",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.21,
        "central": 0.26,
        "higher_demand": 0.35
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km",
      "description": "Weighted fleet assumption; not a measured fleet mean or BFE truck-study coefficient",
      "unit": "battery kWh/vehicle-km",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.85,
        "central": 1.15,
        "higher_demand": 1.5
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "buses_battery_kwh_per_km",
      "description": "Pooled bus/coach assumption",
      "unit": "battery kWh/vehicle-km",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.85,
        "central": 1.15,
        "higher_demand": 1.5
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km",
      "description": "Pooled motorcycles/mopeds assumption",
      "unit": "battery kWh/vehicle-km",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.03,
        "central": 0.045,
        "higher_demand": 0.075
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "charging_efficiency",
      "description": "Grid-to-battery efficiency; do not add charging loss again",
      "unit": "battery kWh/grid kWh",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.94,
        "central": 0.9,
        "higher_demand": 0.85
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "domestic_charging_multiplier",
      "description": "Charging allocation, not vehicle-km share; can exceed one if Swiss charging serves foreign driving",
      "unit": "Swiss charging/territorial driving energy",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.85,
        "central": 0.95,
        "higher_demand": 1.1
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "foreign_van_activity_addition",
      "description": "Explicit missing foreign-van activity sensitivity; zero means unmodeled, not observed absence",
      "unit": "share of observed Swiss-registered van km",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.0,
        "central": 0.0,
        "higher_demand": 0.15
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "residual_twh",
      "description": "2050 unallocated electricity component; central holds baseline constant explicitly, not as an observed future load",
      "unit": "TWh/year",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0,
        "central": 1.2417864696778054,
        "higher_demand": 2.5
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "effective_loss_fraction",
      "description": "Optional annual national accounting uplift; no pumping, exports or new plant-own-use estimate",
      "unit": "losses/(final electricity+losses)",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.04,
        "central": 0.06,
        "higher_demand": 0.08
      },
      "affects_final_demand": false
    }
  ],
  "common_inputs": [
    {
      "parameter": "other_transport_electric_intensity",
      "description": "Retained electric transport energy per activity",
      "unit": "2024=1",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.9,
        "central": 0.9,
        "higher_demand": 0.9
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "space_heat_weather_multiplier",
      "description": "Annual weather stress relative to 2024; not a climate projection or calibrated cold-hour relationship",
      "unit": "2024 weather-related heat=1",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 1.0,
        "central": 1.0,
        "higher_demand": 1.0
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "existing_hp_intensity",
      "description": "Performance change for existing household heat pumps; heat-service change applied separately",
      "unit": "2024 electricity/heat=1",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 1.0,
        "central": 1.0,
        "higher_demand": 1.0
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity",
      "description": "Services/industry existing electric heating: technology split unavailable",
      "unit": "2024 electricity/heat=1",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 1.0,
        "central": 1.0,
        "higher_demand": 1.0
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "oil_boiler_efficiency",
      "description": "Existing oil heat conversion assumption, not measured Swiss average",
      "unit": "kWh generator heat/kWh fuel",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.85,
        "central": 0.85,
        "higher_demand": 0.85
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "gas_boiler_efficiency",
      "description": "Existing gas heat conversion; gas category includes biogas",
      "unit": "kWh generator heat/kWh fuel",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.9,
        "central": 0.9,
        "higher_demand": 0.9
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "solid_boiler_efficiency",
      "description": "Coal, wood and mixed other heat conversion assumption",
      "unit": "kWh generator heat/kWh fuel",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.75,
        "central": 0.75,
        "higher_demand": 0.75
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "fossil_heat_conversion",
      "description": "Share replaced by electric heat pumps by 2050",
      "unit": "share of 2024 oil/gas/coal heat",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 1.0,
        "central": 1.0,
        "higher_demand": 1.0
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "wood_heat_conversion",
      "description": "Wood heating replaced by heat pumps; remaining wood stays non-electric",
      "unit": "share",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.2,
        "central": 0.2,
        "higher_demand": 0.2
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "other_heat_conversion",
      "description": "Mixed other building heat replaced; category is not exclusively fossil",
      "unit": "share",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.25,
        "central": 0.25,
        "higher_demand": 0.25
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "resistance_conversion",
      "description": "Replaces existing resistance electricity, never adds the full replacement on top",
      "unit": "share of identified household resistance heating",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 1.0,
        "central": 1.0,
        "higher_demand": 1.0
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "process_fossil_conversion",
      "description": "Oil/gas/coal process energy replaced; technical feasibility is a scenario assumption",
      "unit": "share",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.9,
        "central": 0.9,
        "higher_demand": 0.9
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "process_wood_conversion",
      "description": "Wood process energy replaced",
      "unit": "share",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.2,
        "central": 0.2,
        "higher_demand": 0.2
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "process_other_conversion",
      "description": "Waste/mixed process energy replaced; retained material-incineration functions not modeled",
      "unit": "share",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.25,
        "central": 0.25,
        "higher_demand": 0.25
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "process_existing_efficiency",
      "description": "Converts selected process final energy to useful heat",
      "unit": "kWh useful heat/kWh input",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.85,
        "central": 0.85,
        "higher_demand": 0.85
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "process_direct_efficiency",
      "description": "Direct electric process-heating conversion case",
      "unit": "kWh useful heat/kWh electricity",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.98,
        "central": 0.98,
        "higher_demand": 0.98
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "cooking_conversion_ratio",
      "description": "Household non-electric cooking replacement; ratio includes old/new appliance efficiency",
      "unit": "kWh electricity/kWh displaced gas or wood",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.55,
        "central": 0.55,
        "higher_demand": 0.55
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "data_centres_increment_twh",
      "description": "Additional data-centre demand; existing demand remains in sector baseline",
      "unit": "TWh/year beyond activity-scaled baseline",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.0,
        "central": 0.0,
        "higher_demand": 0.0
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh",
      "description": "Explicit optional domestic electrolysis/synthetic-fuel electricity; no production volumes inferred",
      "unit": "TWh/year",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.0,
        "central": 0.0,
        "higher_demand": 0.0
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    },
    {
      "parameter": "district_heat_increment_twh",
      "description": "Optional additional district-heat production electricity; delivered district heat is retained separately",
      "unit": "TWh/year electricity input",
      "values": {
        "lower_demand": 0.0,
        "central": 0.0,
        "higher_demand": 0.0
      },
      "affects_final_demand": true
    }
  ],
  "shared_adoption_path": [
    [
      2024,
      0.0
    ],
    [
      2035,
      0.45
    ],
    [
      2040,
      0.7
    ],
    [
      2050,
      1.0
    ]
  ],
  "methods": {
    "results": "Recalculate all three complete 2050 results and require exact equality to frozen scenario-results.json. No model inputs were changed.",
    "display": "Activity and intensity factors are shown as percentage changes from 2024: (factor − 1) × 100. Vehicle consumption is converted from kWh/km to kWh/100 km. Raw inputs remain in this file.",
    "interpretation": "The cases are bundles of assumptions, not confidence bounds or a causal decomposition. Changes interact; individual effects cannot simply be summed. The different network-loss fractions affect only the separate supply-accounting output, not these final-demand totals.",
    "provenance": "The baseline draws on BFE/BFS sources indexed in demand-model-v1. Future scenario endpoints are analyst choices, not official forecasts or guaranteed technical improvements."
  },
  "inputs": [
    {
      "path": "model/parameters.json",
      "sha256": "3bdb6e40035be7a1e73a70379ea4ea27988002c3a71a467a9d72d974164b0254",
      "bytes": 12869
    },
    {
      "path": "model/demand.py",
      "sha256": "d0ee84fc740ac8f77f7962264979a8720f11656f58c614f33a36f59bfa659982",
      "bytes": 12917
    },
    {
      "path": "data/demand-model-v1/baseline.json",
      "sha256": "f75c5dfe2927502ed331bd69309950c10196453a2c3e02b3594bfa193e239563",
      "bytes": 26653
    },
    {
      "path": "data/demand-model-v1/scenario-results.json",
      "sha256": "403c6bf48c64485c981a841583d39a159642dbf5b02480d12770d28d73d25ed7",
      "bytes": 2853180
    }
  ]
}