{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "description": "Illustrative direct-electrification cases, not forecasts or confidence intervals. Parameters are analyst assumptions unless stated otherwise. Endpoints apply in 2050; activity and intensity interpolate from 2024. Technology replacement follows the separate adoption path.",
  "adoption_path": [[2024, 0.0], [2035, 0.45], [2040, 0.7], [2050, 1.0]],
  "parameters": {
    "population_million": {"value": 10.5, "unit": "million residents", "allowed": [1, 30], "sensitivity": [9.5, 11.5], "description": "2050 population; no official population projection embedded"},
    "services_activity": {"value": 1.25, "unit": "2024=1", "allowed": [0.1, 5], "sensitivity": [1.05, 1.5], "description": "Service floor area/activity, including agriculture; independent of household population multiplier"},
    "industry_activity": {"value": 1.15, "unit": "2024=1", "allowed": [0.1, 5], "sensitivity": [0.95, 1.4], "description": "Industrial activity, not a GDP forecast"},
    "road_activity": {"value": 1.15, "unit": "2024 vehicle-km=1", "allowed": [0.1, 5], "sensitivity": [1, 1.35], "description": "Common road activity multiplier; modal shifts not inferred"},
    "other_transport_activity": {"value": 1.2, "unit": "2024=1", "allowed": [0.1, 5], "sensitivity": [1.05, 1.4], "description": "Retained rail, tram, trolleybus and other electric transport"},
    "households_electric_intensity": {"value": 0.85, "unit": "2024=1", "allowed": [0.1, 3], "sensitivity": [0.7, 1.0], "description": "Non-heating, non-space-cooling electricity per resident"},
    "services_electric_intensity": {"value": 0.9, "unit": "2024=1", "allowed": [0.1, 3], "sensitivity": [0.75, 1.05], "description": "Retained electricity per unit of service activity"},
    "industry_electric_intensity": {"value": 0.9, "unit": "2024=1", "allowed": [0.1, 3], "sensitivity": [0.75, 1.05], "description": "Retained electricity including existing electric process heat, per activity"},
    "other_transport_electric_intensity": {"value": 0.9, "unit": "2024=1", "allowed": [0.1, 3], "sensitivity": [0.8, 1.05], "description": "Retained electric transport energy per activity"},
    "space_heat_intensity": {"value": 0.75, "unit": "2024 heat service=1", "allowed": [0.1, 3], "sensitivity": [0.6, 0.9], "description": "Heat per unit of activity: retrofit, controls and heat-service assumptions; same 2024 weather basis"},
    "space_heat_weather_multiplier": {"value": 1.0, "unit": "2024 weather-related heat=1", "allowed": [0.5, 2], "sensitivity": [0.9, 1.2], "description": "Annual weather stress relative to 2024; not a climate projection or calibrated cold-hour relationship"},
    "water_heat_intensity": {"value": 0.95, "unit": "2024 heat service=1", "allowed": [0.1, 3], "sensitivity": [0.85, 1.05], "description": "Hot-water heat per unit of activity"},
    "space_heat_spf": {"value": 3.3, "unit": "kWh heat/kWh electricity", "allowed": [1, 8], "sensitivity": [2.5, 4.0], "description": "New heat-pump seasonal generator/system ratio, including new auxiliaries; not cold-hour COP", "context_sources": ["data/followup/heatpump-field-observations.json", "data/heatpump-alternatives/lucens-measurement-audit.json"]},
    "water_heat_spf": {"value": 2.7, "unit": "kWh heat/kWh electricity", "allowed": [1, 8], "sensitivity": [2.2, 3.3], "description": "New hot-water heat-pump seasonal ratio, at the generator/charging boundary"},
    "existing_hp_intensity": {"value": 1.0, "unit": "2024 electricity/heat=1", "allowed": [0.3, 2], "sensitivity": [0.85, 1.05], "description": "Performance change for existing household heat pumps; heat-service change applied separately"},
    "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": {"value": 1.0, "unit": "2024 electricity/heat=1", "allowed": [0.3, 2], "sensitivity": [0.85, 1.05], "description": "Services/industry existing electric heating: technology split unavailable"},
    "oil_boiler_efficiency": {"value": 0.85, "unit": "kWh generator heat/kWh fuel", "allowed": [0.1, 1], "sensitivity": [0.75, 0.95], "description": "Existing oil heat conversion assumption, not measured Swiss average"},
    "gas_boiler_efficiency": {"value": 0.9, "unit": "kWh generator heat/kWh fuel", "allowed": [0.1, 1], "sensitivity": [0.8, 0.98], "description": "Existing gas heat conversion; gas category includes biogas"},
    "solid_boiler_efficiency": {"value": 0.75, "unit": "kWh generator heat/kWh fuel", "allowed": [0.1, 1], "sensitivity": [0.65, 0.85], "description": "Coal, wood and mixed other heat conversion assumption"},
    "fossil_heat_conversion": {"value": 1.0, "unit": "share of 2024 oil/gas/coal heat", "allowed": [0, 1], "sensitivity": [0.8, 1], "description": "Share replaced by electric heat pumps by 2050"},
    "wood_heat_conversion": {"value": 0.2, "unit": "share", "allowed": [0, 1], "sensitivity": [0, 0.5], "description": "Wood heating replaced by heat pumps; remaining wood stays non-electric"},
    "other_heat_conversion": {"value": 0.25, "unit": "share", "allowed": [0, 1], "sensitivity": [0, 0.5], "description": "Mixed other building heat replaced; category is not exclusively fossil"},
    "resistance_conversion": {"value": 1.0, "unit": "share of identified household resistance heating", "allowed": [0, 1], "sensitivity": [0.7, 1], "description": "Replaces existing resistance electricity, never adds the full replacement on top"},
    "household_auxiliary_retirement": {"value": 0.6, "unit": "share of identified 2024 heating auxiliaries", "allowed": [0, 1], "sensitivity": [0, 0.9], "description": "Explicit credit for retired legacy auxiliaries to limit double counting with new heat-pump SPF; technology allocation unresolved"},
    "cooling_service_multiplier": {"value": 2.0, "unit": "2024 space-cooling service=1", "allowed": [0.1, 10], "sensitivity": [1.5, 3], "description": "Additional cooling service before activity and efficiency; not a climate projection"},
    "cooling_electric_intensity": {"value": 0.8, "unit": "2024 electricity/cooling service=1", "allowed": [0.1, 3], "sensitivity": [0.65, 1], "description": "Cooling efficiency improvement; process refrigeration stays in retained electricity"},
    "process_heat_intensity": {"value": 0.9, "unit": "2024 heat service=1", "allowed": [0.1, 3], "sensitivity": [0.75, 1.05], "description": "Useful industrial process heat per activity"},
    "process_fossil_conversion": {"value": 0.9, "unit": "share", "allowed": [0, 1], "sensitivity": [0.7, 1], "description": "Oil/gas/coal process energy replaced; technical feasibility is a scenario assumption"},
    "process_wood_conversion": {"value": 0.2, "unit": "share", "allowed": [0, 1], "sensitivity": [0, 0.4], "description": "Wood process energy replaced"},
    "process_other_conversion": {"value": 0.25, "unit": "share", "allowed": [0, 1], "sensitivity": [0, 0.5], "description": "Waste/mixed process energy replaced; retained material-incineration functions not modeled"},
    "process_existing_efficiency": {"value": 0.85, "unit": "kWh useful heat/kWh input", "allowed": [0.1, 1], "sensitivity": [0.75, 0.95], "description": "Converts selected process final energy to useful heat"},
    "process_heatpump_share": {"value": 0.25, "unit": "share of converted process input", "allowed": [0, 1], "sensitivity": [0.05, 0.4], "description": "Assumed overlap with below-100C process demand, checked against published marginal bounds"},
    "process_heatpump_cop": {"value": 2.8, "unit": "kWh heat/kWh electricity", "allowed": [1, 8], "sensitivity": [2, 4], "description": "Industrial heat-pump conversion case; source/sink feasibility not resolved"},
    "process_direct_efficiency": {"value": 0.98, "unit": "kWh useful heat/kWh electricity", "allowed": [0.1, 1], "sensitivity": [0.9, 1], "description": "Direct electric process-heating conversion case"},
    "cooking_conversion_ratio": {"value": 0.55, "unit": "kWh electricity/kWh displaced gas or wood", "allowed": [0.1, 2], "sensitivity": [0.4, 0.75], "description": "Household non-electric cooking replacement; ratio includes old/new appliance efficiency"},
    "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": {"value": 0.18, "unit": "battery kWh/vehicle-km", "allowed": [0.05, 1], "sensitivity": [0.15, 0.23], "description": "Fleet-average assumption; charging losses added once"},
    "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": {"value": 0.26, "unit": "battery kWh/vehicle-km", "allowed": [0.05, 2], "sensitivity": [0.21, 0.35], "description": "Swiss-registered light-goods activity basis"},
    "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": {"value": 1.15, "unit": "battery kWh/vehicle-km", "allowed": [0.1, 5], "sensitivity": [0.85, 1.5], "description": "Weighted fleet assumption; not a measured fleet mean or BFE truck-study coefficient"},
    "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": {"value": 1.15, "unit": "battery kWh/vehicle-km", "allowed": [0.1, 5], "sensitivity": [0.85, 1.5], "description": "Pooled bus/coach assumption"},
    "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": {"value": 0.045, "unit": "battery kWh/vehicle-km", "allowed": [0.005, 0.5], "sensitivity": [0.03, 0.075], "description": "Pooled motorcycles/mopeds assumption"},
    "charging_efficiency": {"value": 0.9, "unit": "battery kWh/grid kWh", "allowed": [0.5, 1], "sensitivity": [0.85, 0.94], "description": "Grid-to-battery efficiency; do not add charging loss again"},
    "domestic_charging_multiplier": {"value": 0.95, "unit": "Swiss charging/territorial driving energy", "allowed": [0, 2], "sensitivity": [0.85, 1.1], "description": "Charging allocation, not vehicle-km share; can exceed one if Swiss charging serves foreign driving"},
    "foreign_van_activity_addition": {"value": 0.0, "unit": "share of observed Swiss-registered van km", "allowed": [0, 1], "sensitivity": [0, 0.15], "description": "Explicit missing foreign-van activity sensitivity; zero means unmodeled, not observed absence"},
    "residual_twh": {"value": 1.2417864696778054, "unit": "TWh/year", "allowed": [0, 10], "sensitivity": [0, 2.5], "description": "2050 unallocated electricity component; central holds baseline constant explicitly, not as an observed future load"},
    "data_centres_increment_twh": {"value": 0.0, "unit": "TWh/year beyond activity-scaled baseline", "allowed": [0, 100], "sensitivity": [0, 5], "description": "Additional data-centre demand; existing demand remains in sector baseline"},
    "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": {"value": 0.0, "unit": "TWh/year", "allowed": [0, 200], "sensitivity": [0, 15], "description": "Explicit optional domestic electrolysis/synthetic-fuel electricity; no production volumes inferred"},
    "district_heat_increment_twh": {"value": 0.0, "unit": "TWh/year electricity input", "allowed": [0, 50], "sensitivity": [0, 3], "description": "Optional additional district-heat production electricity; delivered district heat is retained separately"},
    "effective_loss_fraction": {"value": 0.06, "unit": "losses/(final electricity+losses)", "allowed": [0, 0.3], "sensitivity": [0.04, 0.08], "description": "Optional annual national accounting uplift; no pumping, exports or new plant-own-use estimate"}
  },
  "scenarios": {
    "central": {},
    "lower_demand": {"population_million": 9.5, "services_activity": 1.05, "industry_activity": 0.95, "road_activity": 1.0, "other_transport_activity": 1.05, "households_electric_intensity": 0.7, "services_electric_intensity": 0.75, "industry_electric_intensity": 0.75, "space_heat_intensity": 0.6, "water_heat_intensity": 0.85, "space_heat_spf": 4.0, "water_heat_spf": 3.3, "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.9, "cooling_service_multiplier": 1.5, "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.65, "process_heat_intensity": 0.75, "process_heatpump_share": 0.4, "process_heatpump_cop": 4, "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.15, "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.21, "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85, "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85, "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.03, "charging_efficiency": 0.94, "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85, "residual_twh": 0, "effective_loss_fraction": 0.04},
    "higher_demand": {"population_million": 11.5, "services_activity": 1.5, "industry_activity": 1.4, "road_activity": 1.35, "other_transport_activity": 1.4, "households_electric_intensity": 1.0, "services_electric_intensity": 1.05, "industry_electric_intensity": 1.05, "space_heat_intensity": 0.9, "water_heat_intensity": 1.05, "space_heat_spf": 2.5, "water_heat_spf": 2.2, "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0, "cooling_service_multiplier": 3, "cooling_electric_intensity": 1, "process_heat_intensity": 1.05, "process_heatpump_share": 0.05, "process_heatpump_cop": 2, "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.23, "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.35, "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.5, "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.5, "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.075, "charging_efficiency": 0.85, "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1, "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.15, "residual_twh": 2.5, "effective_loss_fraction": 0.08}
  }
}