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    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
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        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
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          "replacement_fraction": 0.0,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
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        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
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    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 10.907500262064746
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 9.906077028175782
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.851356543845635
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.01202789300282573
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.2540354759856185,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.643683706602105,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.23832818908540673,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.8129308892590965
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.067858449501171
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4352007020722253
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5672159540772927,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8007117502789219,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4203138075637786,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.251242342456567
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.414860960382903
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.8769314540943527
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0017077558507579528
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3515581933332659,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1668127415160627,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5887611551194444
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7981319172194439
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5652397621527777
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.010813266638888888
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3559538794666667,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.09263038345986112,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1712822715591638
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5117280750000002
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.763973900722222
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.9912685658333333
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6298661833333336
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.899573957931583
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 37.66851677133944,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7121233705145836,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5541827725869446,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.065978029275139,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.735766973509031,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 2.6220396364498906,
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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    "year": 2025,
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    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
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      "households_electric_intensity": 0.85,
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      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.9,
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      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.18,
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "sector": "industry",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "transport",
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      {
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.023452179186323717,
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.02832346259878128,
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9980769230769231
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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          "activity": 1.0096153846153846,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9913029454051784,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.296641732191405,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.04090909090909091
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.06207921311461181,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0096153846153846,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9913029454051784,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.22151703928839148,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.04090909090909091
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 1.037033997659623,
        "electricity_twh": 1.0378996145995727,
        "change_twh": 0.0008656169399496871,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0096153846153846,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9913029454051784
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0054971445607910905,
        "change_twh": 0.0054971445607910905,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0096153846153846,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9913029454051784,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.023538530078953797,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.008181818181818182
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.631561428547918e-05,
        "change_twh": 1.631561428547918e-05,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0096153846153846,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9913029454051784,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 6.986273934918898e-05,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.04090909090909091
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0096153846153846,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9913029454051784,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.010227272727272727
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.006438082301302659,
        "change_twh": 0.006438082301302659,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0057692307692307,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.991772736425822,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.024085683618522726,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.04090909090909091
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.020819126745344606,
        "change_twh": 0.020819126745344606,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0057692307692307,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.991772736425822,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.07355994206806815,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.04090909090909091
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 0.13079270068055557,
        "electricity_twh": 0.13046499985843082,
        "change_twh": -0.0003277008221247435,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0057692307692307,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.991772736425822
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0010907429480076145,
        "change_twh": 0.0010907429480076145,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0057692307692307,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.991772736425822,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.004624688963068182,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.008181818181818182
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.00010433178202444061,
        "change_twh": 0.00010433178202444061,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0057692307692307,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.991772736425822,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0004423609079545454,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.04090909090909091
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0004131541655667053,
        "change_twh": 0.0004131541655667053,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0057692307692307,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.991772736425822,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.001751750504582357,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.010227272727272727
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.04050778010514944,
        "change_twh": 0.04050778010514944,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.04740014866035397,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.20804095175157414,
        "change_twh": 0.20804095175157414,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.24343896443766289,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.017811793786645623,
        "change_twh": 0.017811793786645623,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.020842457207059954,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.016877692008290854,
        "change_twh": 0.016877692008290854,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.019749418708209,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.029025481023257995,
        "change_twh": 0.029025481023257995,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.03396414495855861,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0017196608192077236,
        "change_twh": 0.0017196608192077236,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0007036571238719377,
        "change_twh": 0.0007036571238719377,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 1.1240271822669716,
        "change_twh": 0.42108333205586057,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 10.838484586572086,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.04090909090909091,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0057692307692307,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.013222889835607007,
        "change_twh": 0.0036603084297736743,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.09718271750913869,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.04090909090909091,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0057692307692307,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.08890673613115109,
        "change_twh": 0.022081449941845535,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.5941278535277777,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.04090909090909091,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0057692307692307,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.10905053711305894,
        "change_twh": 0.0572117877386145,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.4350584100309913,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.04090909090909091,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0057692307692307,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 0.15382393720565335,
        "change_twh": 0.10825944269801446,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.6703377424952772,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.04090909090909091,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0057692307692307,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
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        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 10.426819192475744
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 9.469527535906208
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.79581139455787
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.011497837505728182
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.246609459471629,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.625090348666319,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.23754300664850495,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7464975794050492
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.9920835361142835
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.43355941102215373
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5697382832974631,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8042724023200792,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.42218288369049617,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.960405646659741
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.1976788286127125
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.855774663916824
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.00163926026815219
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3526863450333233,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1677866853569445,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5632606783566431
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.720251063883929
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5592104533644144
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.010344921449575202
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.35506203780935114,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.09239829823908365,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.16910576270923225
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4588368193360939
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.4923335605433214
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.972434093189858
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6078288778895405
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.8670287920136666
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 36.33596006352816,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6869313837971665,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4992021984553068,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.886764628187058,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.05815852969878701,
        "change_twh": 0.05815852969878701,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.06805416012514778,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0034611329043420843,
        "change_twh": 0.0034611329043420843,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.001416239061566763,
        "change_twh": 0.001416239061566763,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 1.5498947730620234,
        "change_twh": 0.8469509228509123,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 10.838484586572086,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.08181818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0115384615384615,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.01692455742053434,
        "change_twh": 0.007361976014701007,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.09718271750913869,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.08181818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0115384615384615,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.11123708763450256,
        "change_twh": 0.044411801445197005,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.5941278535277777,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.08181818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0115384615384615,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.16691524322296236,
        "change_twh": 0.11507649384851792,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.4350584100309913,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.08181818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0115384615384615,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 0.2633223462969487,
        "change_twh": 0.2177578517893098,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.6703377424952772,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.08181818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0115384615384615,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 9.94784908051331
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 9.03453191735963
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.739942098476743
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.010969668711795461
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.2389067943843513,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.605804314389741,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.23672857305110134,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6793638029703617
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.9155096591563345
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4318759437755191
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5722466890913065,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8078133993233554,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4240416423917398,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.66796018387547
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.979295351039519
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.8341052821870902
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.001570385801335203
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3535884472065443,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1685654785417703,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5378295766785818
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6425820885791678
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5531515387246417
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.00987785041240771
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3541364054629591,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.09215741961930962,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.16692210464062476
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4056718119993272
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.219287279125043
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.953375999487245
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.585677512963611
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.8341624854821825
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 34.985622762136,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6614032549293316,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.443488006581364,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.70515994376348,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.256020213892321,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    ],
    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 2.6220396364498906,
      "feasible_lower_twh": 0,
      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2027,
    "scenario": "central",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.12272727272727273,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 10.5,
      "services_activity": 1.25,
      "industry_activity": 1.15,
      "road_activity": 1.15,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.2,
      "households_electric_intensity": 0.85,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.75,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.95,
      "space_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.7,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.6,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 2.0,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.8,
      "process_heat_intensity": 0.9,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.25,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 2.8,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.18,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.26,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.15,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.15,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.045,
      "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95,
      "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.0,
      "residual_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
      "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "district_heat_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.06
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
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      "services": 17.489653932424652,
      "industry": 17.065819528493872,
      "transport": 6.08107526167667,
      "unallocated": 1.2417864696778054,
      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 61.83818332525536,
    "change_from_2024_twh": 4.326183325255357,
    "annual_supply_accounting_before_storage_and_exports_twh": 66.40756156623031,
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    "components": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 10.849926173879545,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "legacy_heating_auxiliaries",
        "baseline_twh": 0.5934028299616816,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5602318347423564,
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        "source": "Tabelle17!AA12; retirement allocation is a scenario assumption",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 14.89498913352904,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.9959738602629744,
        "electricity_twh": 1.1165634240620539,
        "change_twh": 0.12058956379907948,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 15.426365421675365,
        "change_twh": 0.08544168324730883,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.43597542027777775,
        "electricity_twh": 0.48328058895945397,
        "change_twh": 0.047305168681676224,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "electricity_twh": 3.3465521247347487,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.3412683458311534,
        "change_twh": 0.3412683458311534,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA7",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9711538461538461,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.3386477594352189,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.12272727272727273
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.3281678710948849,
        "change_twh": 0.3281678710948849,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0191466274123577,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9711538461538461,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.2157458170943005,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.12272727272727273
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_resistance",
        "baseline_twh": 2.459562977975301,
        "electricity_twh": 2.226120665839055,
        "change_twh": -0.23344231213624633,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0191466274123577,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9711538461538461,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.12272727272727273
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "baseline_twh": 2.628661286306001,
        "electricity_twh": 2.6017126898016083,
        "change_twh": -0.02694859650439252,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0191466274123577,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9711538461538461
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.02678590364930836,
        "change_twh": 0.02678590364930836,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0191466274123577,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9711538461538461,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.1190787515307565,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.024545454545454547
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_coal",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.000332049376464188,
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0191466274123577,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.12272727272727273
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.08571651520191706,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0191466274123577,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9942307692307693,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.00300664419301828,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0191466274123577,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9942307692307693,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.010682199050863712,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.024545454545454547
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "baseline_twh": 2.3218838832072275,
        "electricity_twh": 2.170889535481926,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0191466274123577,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9942307692307693,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.12272727272727273
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0191466274123577,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9942307692307693
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0288461538461537,
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        "sector": "services",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0288461538461537,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0288461538461537,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.973908836215535
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0288461538461537,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.973908836215535,
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 4.9021717200825927e-05,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0288461538461537,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.973908836215535,
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0288461538461537,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.973908836215535,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.03068181818181818
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0173076923076922,
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.06215700248787221,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0173076923076922,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9753182092774656,
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0173076923076922,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9753182092774656
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0173076923076922,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0173076923076922,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9753182092774656,
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0012335015205547422,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0173076923076922,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9753182092774656,
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "calculation_details": {
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      },
      {
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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      {
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5124747094445204
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.565145940433188
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5470643352981343
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.009412179507302033
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 33.617504867162964,
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        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6355389839110791,
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        "sector": "transport",
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        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.521163976004405,
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      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
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      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9670909457032875,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.018498755852272727,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.03272727272727273
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0004142587359793364,
        "change_twh": 0.0004142587359793364,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.023076923076923,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9670909457032875,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0017694436318181816,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.16363636363636364
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0016404658203975355,
        "change_twh": 0.0016404658203975355,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.023076923076923,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9670909457032875,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.007007002018329428,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.04090909090909091
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.1629103136221978,
        "change_twh": 0.1629103136221978,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.19062938191015386,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.8366791912105063,
        "change_twh": 0.8366791912105063,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.9790395312075179,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.07163376774595158,
        "change_twh": 0.07163376774595158,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.08382219986988962,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.06787708660292634,
        "change_twh": 0.06787708660292634,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.07942632223387201,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.11673190197685032,
        "change_twh": 0.11673190197685032,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.13659374798485172,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.007009510872390717,
        "change_twh": 0.007009510872390717,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0028681773784250764,
        "change_twh": 0.0028681773784250764,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 2.4159827308697013,
        "change_twh": 1.7130388806585901,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 10.838484586572086,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.16363636363636364,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.023076923076923,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.024451970055849977,
        "change_twh": 0.014889388650016645,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.09718271750913869,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.16363636363636364,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.023076923076923,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.15664449532572328,
        "change_twh": 0.08981920913641772,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.5941278535277777,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.16363636363636364,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.023076923076923,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.284603410556636,
        "change_twh": 0.23276466118219158,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.4350584100309913,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.16363636363636364,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.023076923076923,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 0.486036063659382,
        "change_twh": 0.4404715691517431,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.6703377424952772,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.16363636363636364,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.023076923076923,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 8.995698924080639
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 8.169799158671049
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.627289526357182
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.00991971593351993
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.222671518489932,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.56515421681421,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2350119523747888,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5430166967653842
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.759989932893509
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.42838352955453585
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5772217304000123,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8148364282162642,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.42772820751780505,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.078838321038439
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.539368945972826
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.7892759861974334
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0014316404304656192
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3547145029724772,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1695376129432553,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.487202936013718
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.487963568574017
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5409501601495668
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0089480347141738
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3521837687029459,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.09164928218277191,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.16253533637073658
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.2985501832369233
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.669129123258183
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.9146019824040046
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5410449546504862
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.767487689516825
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 32.231606378609044,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6093385707424087,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3298587696065631,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.334776724909832,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.763555572577377,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    ],
    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 2.6220396364498906,
      "feasible_lower_twh": 0,
      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2029,
    "scenario": "central",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.20454545454545453,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 10.5,
      "services_activity": 1.25,
      "industry_activity": 1.15,
      "road_activity": 1.15,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.2,
      "households_electric_intensity": 0.85,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.75,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.95,
      "space_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.7,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.6,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 2.0,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.8,
      "process_heat_intensity": 0.9,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.25,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 2.8,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.18,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.26,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.15,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.15,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.045,
      "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95,
      "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.0,
      "residual_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
      "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "district_heat_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.06
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
      "households": 20.253416586565482,
      "services": 18.023967172575013,
      "industry": 17.838556023513664,
      "transport": 7.378321990676843,
      "unallocated": 1.2417864696778054,
      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 64.73604824300881,
    "change_from_2024_twh": 7.224048243008809,
    "annual_supply_accounting_before_storage_and_exports_twh": 69.4624229039682,
    "effective_loss_fraction": 0.06804217969035718,
    "components": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 10.833593976619063,
        "electricity_twh": 10.856825328705625,
        "change_twh": 0.023231352086561685,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.19067475662132183,
        "electricity_twh": 0.22557474157653284,
        "change_twh": 0.034899984955211016,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "legacy_heating_auxiliaries",
        "baseline_twh": 0.5934028299616816,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5371882473293235,
        "change_twh": -0.05621458263235812,
        "source": "Tabelle17!AA12; retirement allocation is a scenario assumption",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 14.646369183265765,
        "electricity_twh": 15.055319210387276,
        "change_twh": 0.4089500271215112,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.9959738602629744,
        "electricity_twh": 1.196729799808187,
        "change_twh": 0.20075593954521254,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 15.340923738428057,
        "electricity_twh": 15.479922492714847,
        "change_twh": 0.13899875428679032,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.740360447146837
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.5705354805301335
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.009398294299224827
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        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.2141389076827895,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.543790153515254,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2341097652958798,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4738142901982532
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        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6810565427717596
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.42657510701117474
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5796883659148745,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8183184601058968,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.782459602832592
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.3180483122236755
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.766139693000723
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        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0013618396341120516
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3549384565651885,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4620211157454339
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4110559221296808
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.534810330343614
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.008485542012938628
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      {
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3511567642893246,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.733689819552107
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      {
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 30.82792729647425,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5828020154233207,
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.271943724505705,
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.512554046283067,
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 2.6220396364498906,
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
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      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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    "year": 2030,
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      "population_million": 10.5,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9478176724310702,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.14123118047372277,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.049090909090909095
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 9.814785465837904e-05,
        "change_twh": 9.814785465837904e-05,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0576923076923077,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9478176724310702,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.00041917643609513385,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.24545454545454545
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0576923076923077,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9478176724310702,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.06136363636363636
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.03813730101200868,
        "change_twh": 0.03813730101200868,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0346153846153845,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9506364185549311,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.14451410171113635,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.24545454545454545
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.12332636743921643,
        "change_twh": 0.12332636743921643,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0346153846153845,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9506364185549311,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.44135965240840896,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.24545454545454545
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 0.13079270068055557,
        "electricity_twh": 0.12864025355167816,
        "change_twh": -0.0021524471288774105,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0346153846153845,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9506364185549311
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.006461239572298622,
        "change_twh": 0.006461239572298622,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0346153846153845,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9506364185549311,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.02774813377840909,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.049090909090909095
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0006180307100734461,
        "change_twh": 0.0006180307100734461,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0346153846153845,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9506364185549311,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0026541654477272724,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.24545454545454545
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0024474034408343273,
        "change_twh": 0.0024474034408343273,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0346153846153845,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9506364185549311,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.010510503027494143,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.06136363636363636
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.2451908354796967,
        "change_twh": 0.2451908354796967,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.28690987315833166,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2592577189258336,
        "change_twh": 1.2592577189258336,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 1.473519480056498,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.10781357528364119,
        "change_twh": 0.10781357528364119,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.12615797466026074,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.10215952080661589,
        "change_twh": 0.10215952080661589,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.11954188703341323,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.17568926077457422,
        "change_twh": 0.17568926077457422,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.2055826573839794,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.010645133904145895,
        "change_twh": 0.010645133904145895,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.00435581495057494,
        "change_twh": 0.00435581495057494,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 3.3012077236341444,
        "change_twh": 2.598263873423033,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 10.838484586572086,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.24545454545454545,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0346153846153845,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.032144819311780246,
        "change_twh": 0.022582237905946913,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.09718271750913869,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.24545454545454545,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0346153846153845,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.20304750926296763,
        "change_twh": 0.13622222307366208,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.5941278535277777,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.24545454545454545,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0346153846153845,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.40490325137546535,
        "change_twh": 0.3530645020010209,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.4350584100309913,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.24545454545454545,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0346153846153845,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 0.7137056465949388,
        "change_twh": 0.6681411520873,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.6703377424952772,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.24545454545454545,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0346153846153845,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 8.05236418199166
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.313072466581212
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.513515748332501
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.008879484068189988
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.20532964830236,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.52173341387551,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.23317832705646901,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4039332634568003
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6013491074452062
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4247255571332259
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5821410780034099,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8217808369576485,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4313735029419744,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.485067481333141
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.095970920160225
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.7425380503782324
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0012918001689453216
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3549363606310638,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.169729144720517,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4369361079989277
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3344439502282077
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5286461629449508
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.008024827383512142
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3500959691866269,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.09110597115024793,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1581259577962088
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1904224705722115
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.113803894497306
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.874972581582413
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4959932083642466
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.699592047912135
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 29.406467620758583,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5559293179538148,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.2132950616625422,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.954828372714196,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.258373049564199,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      }
    ],
    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 2.6220396364498906,
      "feasible_lower_twh": 0,
      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2031,
    "scenario": "central",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.2863636363636364,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 10.5,
      "services_activity": 1.25,
      "industry_activity": 1.15,
      "road_activity": 1.15,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.2,
      "households_electric_intensity": 0.85,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.75,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.95,
      "space_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.7,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
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        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.09718271750913869,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.2863636363636364,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0403846153846155,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.22662236857384874,
        "change_twh": 0.15979708238454318,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.5941278535277777,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.2863636363636364,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0403846153846155,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.46603254934181354,
        "change_twh": 0.4141937999673691,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.4350584100309913,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.2863636363636364,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0403846153846155,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 0.8293988876526386,
        "change_twh": 0.7838343931449997,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.6703377424952772,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.2863636363636364,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0403846153846155,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.584413337958854
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.888084431283072
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.456244944869977
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.008363466415439261
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        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.1962437403486423,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.498983997894974,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.23221763765655648,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.333379078142605
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5208738565054118
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.42283514213618295
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5845798666656181,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8252235587715189,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4331806745158481,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.186810797463546
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.8732479166546487
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.7184828688615696
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0012215570888149433
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3547082151701022,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1695321846250641,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.41195477213345905
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.2581486019976251
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.522458975018252
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.007566016805809969
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.34900138339485287,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.09082112553549117,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.15591403684680183
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1359998583575603
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.834298771961511
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.8548452582068595
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4733178584719238
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.6651996843314887
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 27.967227351462046,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5287204783338916,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1539127810770744,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.761267271613134,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.001012582420774,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 2.6220396364498906,
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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  },
  {
    "year": 2032,
    "scenario": "central",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.32727272727272727,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 10.5,
      "services_activity": 1.25,
      "industry_activity": 1.15,
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      "other_transport_activity": 1.2,
      "households_electric_intensity": 0.85,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.75,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.95,
      "space_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.7,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
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      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.6,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 2.0,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.8,
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      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.25,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 2.8,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.18,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.26,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.15,
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      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.045,
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      "transport": 9.374971513920688,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 15.555152022585986,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.559731319732504,
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.8920813794030406,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9230769230769231,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9230769230769231
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.07001881706267123,
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        "calculation_details": {
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0008679828334639872,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9230769230769231,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.00393640134637933,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.32727272727272727
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.19330335432047918,
        "change_twh": 0.19330335432047918,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9846153846153846,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.32727272727272727
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.23345465181793637,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9846153846153846,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.008188796191352914,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0510576730996204,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9846153846153846,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.028485864135636564,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.06545454545454546
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "baseline_twh": 2.3218838832072275,
        "electricity_twh": 1.9077480259751096,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0510576730996204,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9846153846153846,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.32727272727272727
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.48575585293080276,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0510576730996204,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9846153846153846
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_oil",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.6296762139477652,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0769230769230769,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.930423563241427,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 2.37313385753124,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.32727272727272727
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.4978697748776347,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0769230769230769,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.930423563241427,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.7721363143071318,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.32727272727272727
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.0391024724822733,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0769230769230769,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.930423563241427
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.04408661108345603,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0769230769230769,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.930423563241427,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.18830824063163037,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.06545454545454546
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.00013084977730476235,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0769230769230769,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.930423563241427,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0005589019147935119,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.32727272727272727
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0769230769230769,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.930423563241427,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.08181818181818182
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.05055447569830721,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0461538461538462,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9341818914065749,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.1926854689481818,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.32727272727272727
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.16348036384911427,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0461538461538462,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9341818914065749,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.5884795365445452,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.32727272727272727
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.12782344200411708,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0461538461538462,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9341818914065749
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.008564963179640261,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0461538461538462,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9341818914065749,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.036997511704545454,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.06545454545454546
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0008192561530082424,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0461538461538462,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9341818914065749,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0035388872636363633,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.32727272727272727
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0032442567903442675,
        "change_twh": 0.0032442567903442675,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0461538461538462,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9341818914065749,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.014014004036658857,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.08181818181818182
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.3279641840025825,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "useful_heat_twh": 0.38376704516123084,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.6843673191474668,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 1.9709611615098717,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.14421008506750782,
        "change_twh": 0.14421008506750782,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.1687473234222778,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.1366472927664175,
        "change_twh": 0.1366472927664175,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.15989772765503182,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.23499975003234336,
        "change_twh": 0.23499975003234336,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
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          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
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        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
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          "replacement_fraction": 0.32727272727272727,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0461538461538462,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
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        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
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          "replacement_fraction": 0.32727272727272727,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0461538461538462,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
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        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
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      {
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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    ],
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.1868811838216367,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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      {
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      {
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      {
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      {
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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      {
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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      {
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      {
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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      {
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.630518038544743
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 26.510206488584625,
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5011754965635504,
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0937968827493014,
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        "sector": "transport",
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      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.43239613970179164,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.897802158424614,
        "change_twh": 1.897802158424614,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 2.2207117794102946,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.16248368606809363,
        "change_twh": 0.16248368606809363,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.19013016399609764,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.15396257348797615,
        "change_twh": 0.15396257348797615,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.1801591904695124,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.26477777606511504,
        "change_twh": 0.26477777606511504,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.3098295170672391,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.016262152946228445,
        "change_twh": 0.016262152946228445,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.006654207412471394,
        "change_twh": 0.006654207412471394,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 4.664927153324745,
        "change_twh": 3.9619833031136342,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 10.838484586572086,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.3681818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.051923076923077,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.043994286859328095,
        "change_twh": 0.03443170545349476,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.09718271750913869,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.3681818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.051923076923077,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.27451879188012873,
        "change_twh": 0.20769350569082318,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.5941278535277777,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.3681818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.051923076923077,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5902499003883765,
        "change_twh": 0.5384111510139321,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.4350584100309913,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.3681818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.051923076923077,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 1.064502268947881,
        "change_twh": 1.018937774440242,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.6703377424952772,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.3681818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.051923076923077,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.656766197182187
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.045605053724828
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.341008584573032
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0073405335448855765
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.177241978721342,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.451407136911525,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.23020850537522594,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1902730782023048
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.357644826152357
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.41893276564679033
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5894156737110539,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8320500372856163,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4367640653871737,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.588299106307758
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.4263096628058203
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.6690591312721503
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0010806002990613047
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3535737756676696,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1685528124659912,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.36233055348267057
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1065915730612368
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5100208058394455
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.006654611725241032
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.34671083974407535,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.09022505410898789,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1514782260278947
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0264741733258054
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.271793798938986
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.8139816574004866
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4276836426703021
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.5955524202864773
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 25.035405032126327,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.47329437264279145,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0329473666792235,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.3669712194045163,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.476753236860246,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 2.6220396364498906,
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2034,
    "scenario": "central",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.40909090909090906,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 10.5,
      "services_activity": 1.25,
      "industry_activity": 1.15,
      "road_activity": 1.15,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.2,
      "households_electric_intensity": 0.85,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.75,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.95,
      "space_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.7,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.6,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 2.0,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.8,
      "process_heat_intensity": 0.9,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.25,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 2.8,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.18,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.26,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.15,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.15,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.045,
      "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95,
      "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.0,
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      "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "district_heat_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.06
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
      "households": 20.931594553658325,
      "services": 19.33402279184865,
      "industry": 19.769529699384304,
      "transport": 10.739924149245642,
      "unallocated": 1.2417864696778054,
      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 72.01685766381473,
    "change_from_2024_twh": 14.504857663814732,
    "annual_supply_accounting_before_storage_and_exports_twh": 77.1163601288587,
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    "components": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 10.860111797387662,
        "change_twh": 0.0265178207685981,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "legacy_heating_auxiliaries",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.47632571169621857,
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        "source": "Tabelle17!AA12; retirement allocation is a scenario assumption",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 15.43718645425571,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_cooling",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.3953607382291466,
        "change_twh": 0.3993868779661722,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 15.601900991374688,
        "change_twh": 0.2609772529466312,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.43597542027777775,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5893705044264906,
        "change_twh": 0.1533950841487129,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "baseline_twh": 3.309249636231664,
        "electricity_twh": 3.4267377889972854,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.105130501346058,
        "change_twh": 1.105130501346058,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA7",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9038461538461539,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 4.462159198117396,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.40909090909090906
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_gas",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.0627071872883083,
        "change_twh": 1.0627071872883083,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA8",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9038461538461539,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 4.052486056981001,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.40909090909090906
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0638220913745255,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0638220913745255,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0638220913745255,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0638220913745255,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0638220913745255,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0638220913745255,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "services",
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      {
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          "activity": 1.0961538461538463,
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        "sector": "services",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0961538461538463,
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0576923076923077,
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8354337939858434,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.288341780868488
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        "sector": "services",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.202316706206921
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        "sector": "services",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.643714196262608
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        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0010099566971370749
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3526674816261992,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "services",
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        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.33770138941586997
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.031371790611486
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5037724587166877
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.006202269182205517
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.34551488188507196,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.988870063796176
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.560308139291271
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 23.542822982087152,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4450771065716148,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9713642328668404,
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.1662362682969625,
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 2.6220396364498906,
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
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      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
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      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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    "year": 2035,
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      "population_million": 10.5,
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.22265764907140584,
        "change_twh": 0.22265764907140584,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0634615384615385,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9095001006840404,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.8091593627487498,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.45
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 0.13079270068055557,
        "electricity_twh": 0.1265051035847109,
        "change_twh": -0.00428759709584467,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0634615384615385,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9095001006840404
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.011665343292984026,
        "change_twh": 0.011665343292984026,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0634615384615385,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9095001006840404,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.05087157859375,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.09000000000000001
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0011158138183767416,
        "change_twh": 0.0011158138183767416,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0634615384615385,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9095001006840404,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0048659699875,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.45
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.004418626022809118,
        "change_twh": 0.004418626022809118,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0634615384615385,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9095001006840404,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.019269255550405928,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.1125
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.45295405751291107,
        "change_twh": 0.45295405751291107,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.5300238523733168,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 2.3262936892645016,
        "change_twh": 2.3262936892645016,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 2.7221108244527903,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.19916974581924274,
        "change_twh": 0.19916974581924274,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.23305832943624824,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.18872471058064097,
        "change_twh": 0.18872471058064097,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.22083607924660079,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.3245601059011725,
        "change_twh": 0.3245601059011725,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.37978376571122274,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.020115888637249994,
        "change_twh": 0.020115888637249994,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.008231093122850135,
        "change_twh": 0.008231093122850135,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 5.597994733481102,
        "change_twh": 4.895050883269992,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 10.838484586572086,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.45,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0634615384615385,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.052100727666794945,
        "change_twh": 0.04253814626096161,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.09718271750913869,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.45,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0634615384615385,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.32341082143243227,
        "change_twh": 0.2565855352431267,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.5941278535277777,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.45,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0634615384615385,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.7170789249200952,
        "change_twh": 0.6652401755456507,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.4350584100309913,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.45,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0634615384615385,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 1.3045615158162462,
        "change_twh": 1.2589970213086072,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.6703377424952772,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.45,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0634615384615385,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.741220443811566
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.214116028943288
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.224943320484853
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.006330945087754633
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.1571336228008913,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.401059570564911,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.22808236845188826,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.044539983189989
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1914192884451082
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.41487007526694725
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5941957870511815,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8387978956481893,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4403061865566035,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.9881152567529097
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.978122725654596
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.617962964485318
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0009392496956472575
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3515351380578917,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.166792837682696,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.31320333466714406
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9565524283447336
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.49750635932459286
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.005752334610556801
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3442851333369921,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.08959380908649839,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.14702978252112156
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9160906090403006
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.704882906461613
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.772327840352758
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.38169198882128524
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.524790505293701
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 22.0324603384671,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.41652369835002045,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9090474813121523,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.9631100338539107,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.9397760096014847,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      }
    ],
    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 2.6220396364498906,
      "feasible_lower_twh": 0,
      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
    },
    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2036,
    "scenario": "central",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.5,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 10.5,
      "services_activity": 1.25,
      "industry_activity": 1.15,
      "road_activity": 1.15,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.2,
      "households_electric_intensity": 0.85,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.75,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.95,
      "space_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.7,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.6,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 2.0,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.8,
      "process_heat_intensity": 0.9,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.25,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 2.8,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.18,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.26,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.15,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.15,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.045,
      "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95,
      "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.0,
      "residual_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
      "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "district_heat_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.06
    },
    "sector_electricity_twh": {
      "households": 21.209460967868733,
      "services": 19.878368277472205,
      "industry": 20.617291918266478,
      "transport": 12.275415471046948,
      "unallocated": 1.2417864696778054,
      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 75.22232310433216,
    "change_from_2024_twh": 17.71032310433216,
    "annual_supply_accounting_before_storage_and_exports_twh": 80.48279557481789,
    "effective_loss_fraction": 0.06536145312690479,
    "components": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 10.833593976619063,
        "electricity_twh": 10.855841817507208,
        "change_twh": 0.02224784088814502,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.19067475662132183,
        "electricity_twh": 0.27232721072783095,
        "change_twh": 0.08165245410650912,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
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        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
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    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.193960685214237
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.717100471497883
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.158235910696021
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.005727472095500502
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.1466644719807326,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.3748467728804155,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.22697542324946673,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9533679660172781
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0874270032534183
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4119470516409001
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.596564958581755,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.842142342272654,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4420617710031074,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.6219153681901193
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.7046631739492186
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.5865918084749673
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0008530051636477726
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3501767449627475,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1656201243069642,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.28368533344225694
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8664016776142031
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4902334541134653
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0052102030260996034
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3430215940998359,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0892649964767588,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.14442693581366461
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8479810535730771
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.35508401089151
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.745665946783018
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.479965955416874
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 20.138168581600702,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3807121096212582,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8308900207291742,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.7083497925740168,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.6010446512221357,
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 2.6220396364498906,
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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    "year": 2037,
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    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.55,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 10.5,
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      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.9,
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      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.6,
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      "process_heatpump_cop": 2.8,
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      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.18,
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.40029740030439337,
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        "sector": "services",
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        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.07385839381303291,
        "change_twh": 0.07385839381303291,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.125,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8869382902673187,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.31646245995037886,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.11000000000000001
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.00021921291169847807,
        "change_twh": 0.00021921291169847807,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.125,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8869382902673187,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0009392657179168742,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.55
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.125,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8869382902673187,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.1375
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.08357924506954989,
        "change_twh": 0.08357924506954989,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.075,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8930455735356841,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.32381863531569444,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.55
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.2702740994831804,
        "change_twh": 0.2702740994831804,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.075,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8930455735356841,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.9889725544706942,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.55
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 0.13079270068055557,
        "electricity_twh": 0.1255641305730639,
        "change_twh": -0.00522857010749167,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.075,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8930455735356841
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.014160035223682373,
        "change_twh": 0.014160035223682373,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.075,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8930455735356841,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.062176373836805555,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.11000000000000001
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0013544361768409229,
        "change_twh": 0.0013544361768409229,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.075,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8930455735356841,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.005947296651388889,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.55
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.005363571268484429,
        "change_twh": 0.005363571268484429,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.075,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8930455735356841,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.023551312339385025,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.1375
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5551222219904586,
        "change_twh": 0.5551222219904586,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.6495758537918203,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 2.8510117093941307,
        "change_twh": 2.8510117093941307,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 3.3361092241268633,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.24409440652665182,
        "change_twh": 0.24409440652665182,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.28562688763715677,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.23129339266167281,
        "change_twh": 0.23129339266167281,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.270647790816047,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.3977677739473211,
        "change_twh": 0.3977677739473211,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.4654476638428354,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.02487932646520811,
        "change_twh": 0.02487932646520811,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.010180214091546763,
        "change_twh": 0.010180214091546763,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 6.7483030993503705,
        "change_twh": 6.04535924913926,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 10.838484586572086,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.55,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.075,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.06208518048235013,
        "change_twh": 0.052522599076516796,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.09718271750913869,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.55,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.075,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.3836048255923752,
        "change_twh": 0.31677953940306963,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.5941278535277777,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.55,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.075,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.873555279940711,
        "change_twh": 0.8217165305662666,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.4350584100309913,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.55,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.075,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 1.600879014468403,
        "change_twh": 1.5553145199607643,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.6703377424952772,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.55,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.075,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.65116462369049
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.224138796791781
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.091449222694323
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.005128921300771759
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.1359186725872865,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.347941298855128,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.22583922688654334,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8614186903486512
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9825481643835108
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4089781649821683
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5989202066860011,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8454671338592376,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4438070380241373,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.255898520800785
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.4313403081326146
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.554850240942105
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0007668037400730423
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3485923023407673,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.164252260275177,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2543511753935389
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7768124012268053
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4829529220542001
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.00467144793016644
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3417242641736032,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.08892739046802267,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1418252651458094
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7796454097798438
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.004123964786847
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.7188013903429895
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3248416740632292
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.434854417663705
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 18.22214498813545,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3444896804864298,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7518359162389343,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.450666871661848,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.258427273434993,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      }
    ],
    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 2.6220396364498906,
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2038,
    "scenario": "central",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.6,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 10.5,
      "services_activity": 1.25,
      "industry_activity": 1.15,
      "road_activity": 1.15,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.2,
      "households_electric_intensity": 0.85,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.75,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.95,
      "space_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.7,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.6,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 2.0,
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        "change_twh": 0.3473328610124685,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.5941278535277777,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.6,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0807692307692307,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.9529904744650487,
        "change_twh": 0.9011517250906043,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.4350584100309913,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.6,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0807692307692307,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 1.7513092021821628,
        "change_twh": 1.705744707674524,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.6703377424952772,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.6,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0807692307692307,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.113033068705249
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.7354133778691962
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.024601119386723
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0045355141397086735
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.1248962246205525,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.32034314848905,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2246737793631182,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7686988314749281
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8767903857806316
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.40596373577635564
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6012615313639205,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8487722704079401,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4455419876196933,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.890246631269134
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.1582899743818866
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.5227526969809153
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0006806882685169189
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3467818101919502,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.162689245587334,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.22520924418230714
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6878102036723512
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.47566637289251085
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.004136223298209737
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.34039314355829414,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.08858099106028999,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.13922538026080325
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7110927346113461
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.652049283080017
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.6917381534908222
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.29627898968914207
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.38946238170979
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 16.284389558071357,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3078564109455354,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6718851678414329,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.1900612711174063,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.911923876240058,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 2.6220396364498906,
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
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    "year": 2039,
    "scenario": "central",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.6499999999999999,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 10.5,
      "services_activity": 1.25,
      "industry_activity": 1.15,
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      "households_electric_intensity": 0.85,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.75,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.95,
      "space_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.7,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
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      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.6,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 2.0,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.8,
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      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.25,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 2.8,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.18,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.26,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.15,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.15,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.045,
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
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      "transport": 14.853904908372714,
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 80.46801373501557,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle17!AA12; retirement allocation is a scenario assumption",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 15.706859234407572,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.660803152158906,
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.6466643756259605,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8557692307692308,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.8557692307692308,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.8557692307692308
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.13440497133710108,
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.6499999999999999
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.394768596020664,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9711538461538461,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.1784050780184125,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.6499999999999999
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.4767665075271583,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9711538461538461,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "change_twh": -0.8622959964722361,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0957331370617882,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9711538461538461,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.6499999999999999
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "baseline_twh": 0.46938032113684663,
        "electricity_twh": 0.499479545646048,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0957331370617882,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9711538461538461
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2437040912877821,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1442307692307692,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8695441810776756,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 4.713307522596768,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.6499999999999999
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.9833667879269891,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1442307692307692,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8695441810776756,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 3.5196596242488867,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.6499999999999999
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "baseline_twh": 1.037033997659623,
        "electricity_twh": 1.031806524145315,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1442307692307692,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8695441810776756
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.08707760808010453,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1442307692307692,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8695441810776756,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.3740010890322658,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.12999999999999998
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0002584477542159916,
        "change_twh": 0.0002584477542159916,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1442307692307692,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8695441810776756,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0011100413029926691,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.6499999999999999
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1442307692307692,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8695441810776756,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.16249999999999998
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.09805682103136808,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0865384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8765910463873279,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.3826947508276388,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.6499999999999999
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.31709091151018115,
        "change_twh": 0.31709091151018115,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0865384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8765910463873279,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.1687857461926383,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.6499999999999999
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 0.13079270068055557,
        "electricity_twh": 0.12457349297578252,
        "change_twh": -0.00621920770477305,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0865384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8765910463873279
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.016612832989470885,
        "change_twh": 0.016612832989470885,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0865384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8765910463873279,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.07348116907986109,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.12999999999999998
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.001589051273200451,
        "change_twh": 0.001589051273200451,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0865384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8765910463873279,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0070286233152777764,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.6499999999999999
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.00629264774436659,
        "change_twh": 0.00629264774436659,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0865384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8765910463873279,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.027833369128364115,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.16249999999999998
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.6577260622525634,
        "change_twh": 0.6577260622525634,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.769637660904492,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 3.377967284991847,
        "change_twh": 3.377967284991847,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 3.9527258976621016,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.28921063950023335,
        "change_twh": 0.28921063950023335,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.33841961398236264,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.2740436004073581,
        "change_twh": 0.2740436004073581,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.3206719145065205,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.47128762151019765,
        "change_twh": 0.47128762151019765,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.5514768586029776,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.029749397148807557,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.012172967483377508,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
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          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
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        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.09718271750913869,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.6499999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0865384615384615,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.44501568183079143,
        "change_twh": 0.3781903956414859,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.5941278535277777,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.6499999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0865384615384615,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 1.0332236803320727,
        "change_twh": 0.9813849309576282,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.4350584100309913,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.6499999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0865384615384615,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.9032536821543768,
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        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
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          "replacement_fraction": 0.6499999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0865384615384615,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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    ],
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.1135971280805306,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7701612813900253
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6035889326155127,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8520577519187614,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.8856480188741387
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.490313611685585
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0005947015925732542
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "sector": "industry",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.003604683105681922
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3390282322539086,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.3437963372307244
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
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        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2708123009985749,
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        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5910377755366699,
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        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.92653299094069,
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        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 2.6220396364498906,
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      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
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      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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    "year": 2040,
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.29547992350603186,
        "change_twh": 0.29547992350603186,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.3457556119831776,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5081528273098616,
        "change_twh": 0.5081528273098616,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.5946146516581067,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.03222441981147279,
        "change_twh": 0.03222441981147279,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.013185706337968178,
        "change_twh": 0.013185706337968178,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 8.517621353263527,
        "change_twh": 7.814677503052416,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 10.838484586572086,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.7,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0923076923076922,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.07744098529459142,
        "change_twh": 0.0678784038887581,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.09718271750913869,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.7,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0923076923076922,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.4761774294794271,
        "change_twh": 0.40935214329012154,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.5941278535277777,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.7,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0923076923076922,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 1.1142548975417834,
        "change_twh": 1.062416148167339,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.4350584100309913,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.7,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0923076923076922,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 2.0567124543850457,
        "change_twh": 2.0111479598774067,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.6703377424952772,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.7,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0923076923076922,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.0515667162099644
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.771400799551399
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.8907921184816456
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0033650164631405487
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.1020213829672203,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.263068818734517,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.22225513083476253,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5809740652754698
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6626684651569363
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3997995316659012
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6059024104407781,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8553235783917017,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4489809345343834,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.1607653925158
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6135502877864718
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.457547420150298
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0005088865558358994
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3424826773138068,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1589777642434806,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.16753559691757008
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5116694630215172
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.46108166224471414
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0030769813280354216
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3376295302604466,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.08786181204783493,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.13403340681232703
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5733725179515385
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.9447420725894293
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.6370315683826706
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.23889743498370808
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.297862773902104
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 12.343683188146617,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2333573506455482,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.509293739324645,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6600820311316995,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.2072590236268055,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 2.6220396364498906,
      "feasible_lower_twh": 0,
      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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  },
  {
    "year": 2041,
    "scenario": "central",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.73,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 10.5,
      "services_activity": 1.25,
      "industry_activity": 1.15,
      "road_activity": 1.15,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.2,
      "households_electric_intensity": 0.85,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.75,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.95,
      "space_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.7,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.6,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 2.0,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.8,
      "process_heat_intensity": 0.9,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.25,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 2.8,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.18,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.26,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.15,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.15,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.045,
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      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95,
      "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.0,
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      "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "district_heat_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.06
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
      "households": 21.845891787977852,
      "services": 21.211584084936245,
      "industry": 22.753526342343044,
      "transport": 16.290372862156733,
      "unallocated": 1.2417864696778054,
      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 83.34316154709168,
    "change_from_2024_twh": 25.831161547091682,
    "annual_supply_accounting_before_storage_and_exports_twh": 88.98922993351631,
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    "components": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 10.831205449422903,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_cooling",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "legacy_heating_auxiliaries",
        "baseline_twh": 0.5934028299616816,
        "electricity_twh": 0.36967549952442863,
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        "source": "Tabelle17!AA12; retirement allocation is a scenario assumption",
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 14.646369183265765,
        "electricity_twh": 15.926301519806337,
        "change_twh": 1.279932336540572,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.9959738602629744,
        "electricity_twh": 1.6658280479891698,
        "change_twh": 0.6698541877261954,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
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        "electricity_twh": 15.744076860045174,
        "change_twh": 0.4031531216171178,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.43597542027777775,
        "electricity_twh": 0.6882163221615106,
        "change_twh": 0.2522409018837329,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "baseline_twh": 3.309249636231664,
        "electricity_twh": 3.4973285874506295,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.901838921332445,
        "change_twh": 1.901838921332445,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA7",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8365384615384616,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 7.962475191307264,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.73
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.8288318785002484,
        "change_twh": 1.8288318785002484,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1084975553366934,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8365384615384616,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 7.23143623056832,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.73
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_resistance",
        "baseline_twh": 2.459562977975301,
        "electricity_twh": 1.120334410360146,
        "change_twh": -1.3392285676151552,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1084975553366934,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8365384615384616,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.73
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_existing_heat_pump",
        "baseline_twh": 2.628661286306001,
        "electricity_twh": 2.4375598177117466,
        "change_twh": -0.19110146859425425,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1084975553366934,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8365384615384616
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.14927395032564733,
        "change_twh": 0.14927395032564733,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1084975553366934,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8365384615384616,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1084975553366934,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8365384615384616,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.008780361892062783,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.73
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        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA7",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1084975553366934,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9673076923076923,
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          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.73
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.5395376963325675,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1084975553366934,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9673076923076923,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.5095366681358549,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.73
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.018925149695732068,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1084975553366934,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9673076923076923,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.06353930250254489,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1084975553366934,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9673076923076923,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.73
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1084975553366934,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9673076923076923
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1634615384615385,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.8521500718880323,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 5.293406909993293,
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.101012955438293,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1634615384615385,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8521500718880323,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 3.952848501079519,
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      {
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1634615384615385,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8521500718880323
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0974952335200195,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1634615384615385,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8521500718880323,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.4200319922977755,
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.00028936743561941967,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1634615384615385,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8521500718880323,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0012466617710533054,
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1634615384615385,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8521500718880323,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.098076923076923,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.8601365192389716,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.4297956432371944,
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.3533703185782616,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.098076923076923,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8601365192389716,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.312636299570194,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.73
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.098076923076923,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.8601365192389716
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.098076923076923,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8601365192389716,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.08252500527430554,
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.098076923076923,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8601365192389716,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.007893684646388888,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.73
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.007012610129811952,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.098076923076923,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8601365192389716,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.031259014559547396,
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "replacement_fraction": 0.73,
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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      {
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
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      {
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.15014230004163492
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.45854869921714003
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4559221871688575
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0027575336959804776
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 11.167990828148849,
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.21113088467737184,
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        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5019650630256693,
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        "sector": "transport",
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 2.6220396364498906,
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      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
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      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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    "year": 2042,
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        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0018362000506733647,
        "change_twh": 0.0018362000506733647,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1038461538461537,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8519092556647934,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.008218082645555555,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.76
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.007271357634548784,
        "change_twh": 0.007271357634548784,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1038461538461537,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8519092556647934,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.03254363159624112,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.19
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.7717169031837635,
        "change_twh": 0.7717169031837635,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.9030239583523442,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 3.9634045263496995,
        "change_twh": 3.9634045263496995,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 4.637774848743529,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.3393338836514169,
        "change_twh": 0.3393338836514169,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.397071290720464,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.32153823724030317,
        "change_twh": 0.32153823724030317,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.3762477283528324,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5529667207273176,
        "change_twh": 0.5529667207273176,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.6470535955973388,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.035391717789607535,
        "change_twh": 0.035391717789607535,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.014481712946275099,
        "change_twh": 0.014481712946275099,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 9.278880886252479,
        "change_twh": 8.575937036041367,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 10.838484586572086,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.76,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1038461538461537,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.08406217288587357,
        "change_twh": 0.07449959148004023,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.09718271750913869,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.76,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1038461538461537,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5161311274007624,
        "change_twh": 0.44930584121145684,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.5941278535277777,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.76,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1038461538461537,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2176368978956595,
        "change_twh": 1.165798148521215,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.4350584100309913,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.76,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1038461538461537,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 2.252279041441369,
        "change_twh": 2.20671454693373,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.6703377424952772,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.76,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1038461538461537,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.413401724137297
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.191826065077787
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.7927323046768113
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0026613006659019457
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.078039947020736,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.2030237836168185,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.21971947766439967,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.46829648369455057
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.534146583533151
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3972042127485973
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6104875958123277,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8617962662239387,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.45237861174717764,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7219123824847355
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.285837060295762
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.413863758343617
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0004055313292266354
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3372793463283177,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1544856802754049,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.13287775312629876
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4058211498962265
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4507445068037436
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.002440450703035294
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.33473075420629345,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.08710745943939364,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1304665920818919
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4908076553824232
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.5207032201633206
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.60616450875351
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.20449652934209664
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.245284287516064
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 9.979259366191771,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.18865791446555583,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.411738882214572,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3420944871402751,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7844601120588537,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 2.6220396364498906,
      "feasible_lower_twh": 0,
      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2043,
    "scenario": "central",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.7899999999999999,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 10.5,
      "services_activity": 1.25,
      "industry_activity": 1.15,
      "road_activity": 1.15,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.2,
      "households_electric_intensity": 0.85,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.75,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.95,
      "space_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.7,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.6,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 2.0,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.8,
      "process_heat_intensity": 0.9,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.25,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 2.8,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.18,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.26,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.15,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.15,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.045,
      "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95,
      "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.0,
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      "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "district_heat_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.06
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
      "households": 21.97095158585231,
      "services": 21.61468979147632,
      "industry": 23.33223291953043,
      "transport": 17.425779738191732,
      "unallocated": 1.2417864696778054,
      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 85.5854405047286,
    "change_from_2024_twh": 28.073440504728595,
    "annual_supply_accounting_before_storage_and_exports_twh": 91.30873858054979,
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    "components": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 10.833593976619063,
        "electricity_twh": 10.815766334835914,
        "change_twh": -0.017827641783149772,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_cooling",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.31595052895444886,
        "change_twh": 0.12527577233312703,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "legacy_heating_auxiliaries",
        "baseline_twh": 0.5934028299616816,
        "electricity_twh": 0.3499793748697796,
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        "source": "Tabelle17!AA12; retirement allocation is a scenario assumption",
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 14.646369183265765,
        "electricity_twh": 16.05629887942112,
        "change_twh": 1.4099296961553556,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.9959738602629744,
        "electricity_twh": 1.7407584209651448,
        "change_twh": 0.7447845607021704,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 15.340923738428057,
        "electricity_twh": 15.77857124478247,
        "change_twh": 0.43764750635441274,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.43597542027777775,
        "electricity_twh": 0.7149131192614289,
        "change_twh": 0.2789376989836511,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 3.309249636231664,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1212619736115985,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1212619736115985,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1212619736115985,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1212619736115985,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
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        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1212619736115985,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1212619736115985,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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          "activity": 1.1826923076923077,
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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          "activity": 1.1826923076923077,
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1826923076923077,
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        "sector": "industry",
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          "activity": 1.1096153846153844,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1096153846153844,
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        "sector": "industry",
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          "activity": 1.1096153846153844,
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          "activity": 1.1096153846153844,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1096153846153844,
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "households",
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      {
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.171962251546782,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.21840777433846553,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4112841938919625
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4691174387973187
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.39586139868472636
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.612759303358612,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8650031275832355,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4540619742153638,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5033600895938055
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        "sector": "services",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.122633263941006
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        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.3915138924303685
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        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0003540596035203053
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3343386065453182,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "services",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.11574698636835183
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3535021777526635
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.44554958699680053
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0021258247344713294
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.33323068014560225,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.307799493402212
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.2186841888620115
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 8.777488802275387,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.16593844001010022,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3621544741430002,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1804703034755166,
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5695632388078642,
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 2.6220396364498906,
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      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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    "year": 2044,
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      "population_million": 10.5,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1923076923076923,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8260589081035673,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.205
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.12122741661461368,
        "change_twh": 0.12122741661461368,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1153846153846154,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8354547285164372,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.4827841471979444,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.82
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.3920187461722368,
        "change_twh": 0.3920187461722368,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1153846153846154,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8354547285164372,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.474468172119944,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.82
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 0.13079270068055557,
        "electricity_twh": 0.12187961642042885,
        "change_twh": -0.008913084260126714,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1153846153846154,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8354547285164372
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.020538406250385534,
        "change_twh": 0.020538406250385534,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1153846153846154,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8354547285164372,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.09269932099305554,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.164
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0019645403419373503,
        "change_twh": 0.0019645403419373503,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1153846153846154,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8354547285164372,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.008866878643888888,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.82
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.007779585567752672,
        "change_twh": 0.007779585567752672,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1153846153846154,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8354547285164372,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.03511286566962858,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.205
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.8343922273906348,
        "change_twh": 0.8343922273906348,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.9763634422003846,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 4.285294150157508,
        "change_twh": 4.285294150157508,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 5.0144337518260995,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.36689303271824114,
        "change_twh": 0.36689303271824114,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.4293196084344792,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.34765210513771677,
        "change_twh": 0.34765210513771677,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.40680485138502975,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5978761536478795,
        "change_twh": 0.5978761536478795,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.6996043350148321,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.03862299548112709,
        "change_twh": 0.03862299548112709,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.015803899008462484,
        "change_twh": 0.015803899008462484,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 10.054174244876393,
        "change_twh": 9.351230394665281,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 10.838484586572086,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.82,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1153846153846154,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.09080468066560646,
        "change_twh": 0.08124209925977313,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.09718271750913869,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.82,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1153846153846154,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5568149365691819,
        "change_twh": 0.48998965037987635,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.5941278535277777,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.82,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1153846153846154,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 1.3229341254719835,
        "change_twh": 1.2710953760975392,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.4350584100309913,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.82,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1153846153846154,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 2.4514799299179835,
        "change_twh": 2.4059154354103445,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.6703377424952772,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.82,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1153846153846154,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7881986710483473
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6240232272736428
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.69392013702211
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0019718782274952937
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.0529519167810997,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.140208043135954,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.21706681985202966,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.35382824498061083
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.40358224926838876
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3944887379391922
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6150170874785693,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8681903339046511,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.45573501925807597,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.285536138133326
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9599733561216642
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.368836884585863
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0003027594110879243
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3311718172354823,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1492129936831057,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.09875502996458432
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.30160714548033724
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.44033839359545623
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0018137481755600368
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3316968153958347,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.08631793323496618,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1268899171869577
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.40779088451538476
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.094343444888312
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.574685743552545
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.16990733470887578
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.1918820449744136
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.562679136399691,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1429724613110049,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3120320797270713,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0170925120313936,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3523347539121982,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      }
    ],
    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 2.6220396364498906,
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
    },
    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2045,
    "scenario": "central",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.85,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 10.5,
      "services_activity": 1.25,
      "industry_activity": 1.15,
      "road_activity": 1.15,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.2,
      "households_electric_intensity": 0.85,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.75,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.95,
      "space_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.7,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.6,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 2.0,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.8,
      "process_heat_intensity": 0.9,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.25,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 2.8,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.18,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.26,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.15,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.15,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.045,
      "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95,
      "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.0,
      "residual_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
      "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "district_heat_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.06
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
      "households": 22.082191808819864,
      "services": 22.007898689562406,
      "industry": 23.907441712138255,
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        "electricity_twh": 2.5524432371888994,
        "change_twh": 2.5068787426812604,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.6703377424952772,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.85,
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          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
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    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4807590858201465
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.344809829188932
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.6442587148614987
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0016328591720643538
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.03999292880135,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.107761158384334,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.21569661420509195,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.29593264213498727
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.33754558331350865
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.39308642280335704
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6172609481721996,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8713578851881856,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4573977468753142,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0685496781138337
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7979388445439994
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.3458413958666124
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.00025165645808580383
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3277789783988099,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1462839244028726,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.08190691411178642
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.25015141577313416
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4351118924471389
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0015043134115728747
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3301291599569906,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0859099800342576,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1250987967926743
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.36612661889626213
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.8803629835810587
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.5587229450498588
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.15254778943026936
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.1648817496586283
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.334830368564682,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.11975997836826989,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.26137169896678525,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8519611128079058,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1327746573718553,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 2.6220396364498906,
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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  },
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    "year": 2046,
    "scenario": "central",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.88,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 10.5,
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      "industry_activity": 1.15,
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      "households_electric_intensity": 0.85,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.9,
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      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
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      "space_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.7,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
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      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
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      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.6,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 2.0,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.8,
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      "process_heatpump_cop": 2.8,
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      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.18,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.26,
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 88.93428760293486,
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.7884615384615384
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0021630200689898124,
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9576923076923076,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.88
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.6624738005106843,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9576923076923076,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9576923076923076
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        "sector": "services",
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.808664798913924,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 6.381093261361778,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.88
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.313225364617509,
        "change_twh": 1.313225364617509,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2115384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.808664798913924,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 4.765077645136954,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.88
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 1.037033997659623,
        "electricity_twh": 1.0160117695886974,
        "change_twh": -0.021022228070925575,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2115384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.808664798913924
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.11628674572392214,
        "change_twh": 0.11628674572392214,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2115384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.808664798913924,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.5063399359206061,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.17600000000000002
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0003451409488623802,
        "change_twh": 0.0003451409488623802,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2115384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.808664798913924,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0015028251486669986,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.88
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2115384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.808664798913924,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.22
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.12894574979454973,
        "change_twh": 0.12894574979454973,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.126923076923077,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8190002013680808,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.518109816505111,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.88
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.4169778798421145,
        "change_twh": 0.4169778798421145,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.126923076923077,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8190002013680808,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.5823560871531106,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.88
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 0.13079270068055557,
        "electricity_twh": 0.12071515277342726,
        "change_twh": -0.01007754790712831,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.126923076923077,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8190002013680808
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.021846049907672267,
        "change_twh": 0.021846049907672267,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.126923076923077,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8190002013680808,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0994821981388889,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.17600000000000002
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0020896191180751074,
        "change_twh": 0.0020896191180751074,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.126923076923077,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8190002013680808,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.009515674642222222,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.88
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.008274897891404866,
        "change_twh": 0.008274897891404866,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.126923076923077,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8190002013680808,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.03768209974301604,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.22
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.897169306747188,
        "change_twh": 0.897169306747188,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 1.0498219947608887,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 4.607706370812897,
        "change_twh": 4.607706370812897,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 5.3917041712198674,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.39449692483783594,
        "change_twh": 0.39449692483783594,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.46162028219830353,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.3738083696333178,
        "change_twh": 0.3738083696333178,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.437411584764957,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.6428584982944962,
        "change_twh": 0.6428584982944962,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.7522403920341567,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.041918252886031446,
        "change_twh": 0.041918252886031446,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.017152264524530347,
        "change_twh": 0.017152264524530347,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 10.843501429135266,
        "change_twh": 10.140557578924154,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 10.838484586572086,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.88,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.126923076923077,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.09766850863379006,
        "change_twh": 0.08810592722795674,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.09718271750913869,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.88,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.126923076923077,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5982288569846853,
        "change_twh": 0.5314035707953797,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.5941278535277777,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.88,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.126923076923077,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 1.430146580270755,
        "change_twh": 1.3783078308963104,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.4350584100309913,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.88,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.126923076923077,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 2.654315119814888,
        "change_twh": 2.608750625307249,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.6703377424952772,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.88,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.126923076923077,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
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        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
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    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1769214423747323
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0688676767511627
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.594441357470948
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0012978120413938874
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.0267572922483112,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.07462159729192,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.21429715739765243,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.23760139052958354
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.27101200929982533
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.39165464556858287
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6194908854395028,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.874505781433839,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4590501570670785,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8525098595458673
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6366112369142735
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.322536087329128
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.00020077645067025505
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3241600900353008,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1431597044665833,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.06520766900674844
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.19915035132494102
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4298710493992767
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0011976128277812988
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3285277138290701,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.08549323343455245,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.12330630889511124
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3243656787140001
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6658860184398872
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.5426143885788917
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.13514796439558976
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.137687196720012
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.093942498770364,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.09630099118189522,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2101733318621422,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6850761058050534,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9108829491868365,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      }
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        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.017836264577769444,
        "change_twh": 0.017836264577769444,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 11.243427705877814,
        "change_twh": 10.540483855666702,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 10.838484586572086,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.9099999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1326923076923077,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.1011459176885509,
        "change_twh": 0.09158333628271756,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.09718271750913869,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.9099999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1326923076923077,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.6192096089100936,
        "change_twh": 0.5523843227207881,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.5941278535277777,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.9099999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1326923076923077,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 1.484471017878558,
        "change_twh": 1.4326322685041135,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.4350584100309913,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.9099999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1326923076923077,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 2.757095577795949,
        "change_twh": 2.71153108328831,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.6703377424952772,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.9099999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1326923076923077,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8768062263910589
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7963061937868606
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.5444787825946333
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0009668696971680579
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        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.0132450071219847,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.040789359858716,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.21286844942971106,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.17883849533889146
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.20398609559448597
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3901935985262319
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6217068992804791,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8776340226416112,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4606922498333687,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6375258324399643
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4760720409387493
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.298929620029922
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.00015014509499758932
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3203151521449557,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1398403338742389,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.04866232484626063
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.14861931482964474
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4246168302992979
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0008937388094567683
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.32689247701207325,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.08506769343585077,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.12151281934021686
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.28251349813904575
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.450940458424235
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.526362463614532
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.11771012376877993
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.1103022799639226
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.840015527016741,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.07259549975188098,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.15843697841314233,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5164374910228372,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6866596293571423,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 2.6220396364498906,
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2048,
    "scenario": "central",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.94,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 10.5,
      "services_activity": 1.25,
      "industry_activity": 1.15,
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      "other_transport_activity": 1.2,
      "households_electric_intensity": 0.85,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.75,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.95,
      "space_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.7,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
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      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.6,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 2.0,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.8,
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      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
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      "process_heatpump_share": 0.25,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 2.8,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.18,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.26,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.15,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.15,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.045,
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      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.06
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
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      "services": 22.577937084208017,
      "industry": 24.76298329070624,
      "transport": 20.350272377985632,
      "unallocated": 1.2417864696778054,
      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 91.15531160114341,
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    "components": [
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle17!AA12; retirement allocation is a scenario assumption",
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 15.85289302768684,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.7782865718386183,
        "change_twh": 0.3423111515608405,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 2.342659620782389,
        "change_twh": 2.342659620782389,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.7692307692307692,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.94
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 2.252730526705435,
        "change_twh": 2.252730526705435,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7692307692307692,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 9.311712406485235,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.94
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1531730192988612,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7692307692307692,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.94
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle20!AA10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1531730192988612,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7692307692307692
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.1838736456279739,
        "change_twh": 0.1838736456279739,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1531730192988612,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7692307692307692,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.9120550302429794,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.188
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0022793753826013743,
        "change_twh": 0.0022793753826013743,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1531730192988612,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7692307692307692,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.011306219422656185,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.94
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "water_new_electric_from_oil",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.5901155643715082,
        "change_twh": 0.5901155643715082,
        "source": "Tabelle22!AA7",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1531730192988612,
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          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.7041550359035507,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.7126892551708823,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1531730192988612,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9538461538461538,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.9437869425311007,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.94
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.024998718221784774,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1531730192988612,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9538461538461538,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.08181773198957835,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.188
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "baseline_twh": 2.3218838832072275,
        "electricity_twh": 1.0423921517653185,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1531730192988612,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9538461538461538,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.94
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "baseline_twh": 0.46938032113684663,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1531730192988612,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9538461538461538
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.7644866870058902,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2307692307692308,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7912706897242807,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 6.816167801909172,
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.3951370087914432,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2307692307692308,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7912706897242807,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 5.089969302759928,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.94
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.0099379773485022,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2307692307692308,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7912706897242807
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.12354006171561942,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2307692307692308,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7912706897242807,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.5408631133697384,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.188
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0003666689084607721,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2307692307692308,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7912706897242807,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0016052904997124755,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.94
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2307692307692308,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7912706897242807,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.235
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.13645235971540656,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1384615384615384,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8025456742197246,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.5534354858122776,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.94
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.4412523541430346,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1384615384615384,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8025456742197246,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.6902440021862772,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.94
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.11950102454079134,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1384615384615384,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8025456742197246
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.02311782331028346,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1384615384615384,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8025456742197246,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.1062650752847222,
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0022112668313773857,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1384615384615384,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8025456742197246,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.010164470640555555,
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.00875662319607499,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1384615384615384,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8025456742197246,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.040251333816403494,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.9600165620690385,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 4.930479003087306,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 5.769396326000668,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.42213167423520337,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
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          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.3999938731621517,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "change_twh": 0.6878911268901158,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
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        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
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          "replacement_fraction": 0.94,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1384615384615384,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
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        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
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          "replacement_fraction": 0.94,
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.5392742622919737,
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        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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    ],
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.99945607342237,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.2750306550255037
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 9.978809722411735e-05
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3162441647277736,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "services",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "sector": "industry",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1197186939739395
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.24057551134184624
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.2355542124935377
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.5099695596316702
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.10023653171378301
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.0827308931957176
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        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.573049453303804,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.048643504078226985,
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        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.10616263861978523,
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        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.34604526846125594,
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        "sector": "transport",
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 2.6220396364498906,
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      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
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      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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    "year": 2049,
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          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.2425
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.9914566372218307,
        "change_twh": 0.9914566372218307,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 1.1601522441521124,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 5.091949790697718,
        "change_twh": 5.091949790697718,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 5.958341247622404,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.43595628110836515,
        "change_twh": 0.43595628110836515,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.5101339169984452,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.41309347782498257,
        "change_twh": 0.41309347782498257,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.48338102479818856,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.7104192264884732,
        "change_twh": 0.7104192264884732,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.8312965277118851,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.04698110095598446,
        "change_twh": 0.04698110095598446,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.01922389927465801,
        "change_twh": 0.01922389927465801,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 12.05380562858913,
        "change_twh": 11.350861778378018,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 10.838484586572086,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.97,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1442307692307692,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.1081917259394106,
        "change_twh": 0.09862914453357727,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.09718271750913869,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.97,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1442307692307692,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.6617186961962231,
        "change_twh": 0.5948934100069176,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.5941278535277777,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.97,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1442307692307692,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 1.5945563135110008,
        "change_twh": 1.5427175641365563,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.4350584100309913,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.97,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1442307692307692,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 2.9653822198232893,
        "change_twh": 2.9198177253156503,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.6703377424952772,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.97,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1442307692307692,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.28822501952473967
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.26176293158475394
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.4441608513614144
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0003178308147869516
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.985390491149468,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.971046855969934,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.20992328001232308,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.06003379489960794
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.06847552257742619
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.38718446418424834
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6260971566834507,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8838315399435123,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4639454830895275,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2111617526564929
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.15768491477535015
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.250847853372386
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.973116350615052e-05
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3119471277837553,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1326161407213824,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.016053460146096144
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.049028776473287516
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4140721273327026
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.00029484001029466154
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.32352063131085007,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.08419023324145772,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1179242986422276
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1985571524928486
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0197551896072299
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.4934380661051967
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.082729452394542
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.0549769302207546
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.293044277631557,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.024445004160933325,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.05335031248207112,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.17389943812031022,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.23121815476372365,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    ],
    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 2.6220396364498906,
      "feasible_lower_twh": 0,
      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2050,
    "scenario": "central",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 1.0,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 10.5,
      "services_activity": 1.25,
      "industry_activity": 1.15,
      "road_activity": 1.15,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.2,
      "households_electric_intensity": 0.85,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.75,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.95,
      "space_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.7,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.6,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 2.0,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.8,
      "process_heat_intensity": 0.9,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.25,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 2.8,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.18,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.26,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.15,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.15,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.045,
      "charging_efficiency": 0.9,
      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95,
      "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.0,
      "residual_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
      "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "district_heat_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.06
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
      "households": 22.297407540755962,
      "services": 22.943967087894556,
      "industry": 25.328021093351044,
      "transport": 21.55445961378576,
      "unallocated": 1.2417864696778054,
      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 93.36564180546513,
    "change_from_2024_twh": 35.85364180546513,
    "annual_supply_accounting_before_storage_and_exports_twh": 99.3251508568778,
    "effective_loss_fraction": 0.06,
    "components": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 10.833593976619063,
        "electricity_twh": 10.736598880691748,
        "change_twh": -0.09699509592731559,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.19067475662132183,
        "electricity_twh": 0.3557037394321048,
        "change_twh": 0.165028982810783,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "legacy_heating_auxiliaries",
        "baseline_twh": 0.5934028299616816,
        "electricity_twh": 0.2767482300058178,
        "change_twh": -0.3166545999558638,
        "source": "Tabelle17!AA12; retirement allocation is a scenario assumption",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 14.646369183265765,
        "electricity_twh": 16.477165331173985,
        "change_twh": 1.8307961479082202,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.9959738602629744,
        "electricity_twh": 1.991947720525949,
        "change_twh": 0.9959738602629746,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 15.340923738428057,
        "electricity_twh": 15.877856069273038,
        "change_twh": 0.5369323308449818,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.43597542027777775,
        "electricity_twh": 0.8021947733111111,
        "change_twh": 0.36621935303333336,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 3.309249636231664,
        "electricity_twh": 3.5739896071301973,
        "change_twh": 0.2647399708985332,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 2.4567826068190706,
        "change_twh": 2.4567826068190706,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA7",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.75,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 10.907500262064746,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 1.0
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 2.3624726045399225,
        "change_twh": 2.3624726045399225,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1659374375737663,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.75,
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          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 1.0
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "baseline_twh": 2.459562977975301,
        "electricity_twh": 0.6517492172935966,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1659374375737663,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "baseline_twh": 2.628661286306001,
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        "source": "Tabelle20!AA10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1659374375737663,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.75
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.19283107559618537,
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        "source": "Tabelle20!AA11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1659374375737663,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.75,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.970271308769127,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.2
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.002390415468260125,
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        "source": "Tabelle20!AA12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1659374375737663,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
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          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 1.0
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        "sector": "households",
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        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.6321720097715824,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA7",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1659374375737663,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.95,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.8129308892590965,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 1.0
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.763481300927608,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1659374375737663,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.95,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 2.067858449501171,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 1.0
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.02678033065745415,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1659374375737663,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.95,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.08704014041444506,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.2
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1659374375737663,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.95,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1659374375737663,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.25,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7738765805346375,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 7.251242342456567,
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          "conversion_fraction": 1.0
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.4750812959457145,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.25,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7738765805346375,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 5.414860960382903,
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      {
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        "electricity_twh": 1.0031704050087429,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.25,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7738765805346375
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.25,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
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          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.5753862908188706,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.2
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.25,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7738765805346375,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0017077558507579528,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 1.0
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.25,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7738765805346375,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.25
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.1437367839650124,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.15,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
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          "conversion_fraction": 1.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.46480833628522006,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.15,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7860911470713683,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.7981319172194439,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 1.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.15,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7860911470713683
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.024351953911401377,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.15,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7860911470713683,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.11304795243055554,
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0023293139341349343,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.15,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7860911470713683,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.010813266638888888,
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          "conversion_fraction": 1.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.009224090072332667,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.15,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.25
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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    ],
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.9710482603032773,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6282714002454459,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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        "sector": "services",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.22638987612708
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        "sector": "services",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3074240413129004,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1287113181608706,
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4087835751609425
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3217840224266239,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.08373831304576636,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.11612999919102943
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        "sector": "industry",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.06519114997499997
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.0270442848443913
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        "sector": "transport",
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        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0,
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 2.6220396364498906,
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      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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    "year": 2024,
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      "population_million": 9.5,
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 1.0,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.0,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.0,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.0,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.0,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.0,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 7.737440004411764,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.0,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.05550188793914977,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.0,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.3761932292287234,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.0,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9929457040721802,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.0,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.6908195307050529,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.0,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 10.907500262064746
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 9.906077028175782
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.851356543845635
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.01202789300282573
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.2540354759856185,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.643683706602105,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.23832818908540673,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.8129308892590965
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.067858449501171
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4352007020722253
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5672159540772927,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8007117502789219,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4203138075637786,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.251242342456567
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.414860960382903
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.8769314540943527
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0017077558507579528
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3515581933332659,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1668127415160627,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5887611551194444
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7981319172194439
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5652397621527777
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.010813266638888888
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3559538794666667,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.09263038345986112,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1712822715591638
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5117280750000002
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.763973900722222
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.9912685658333333
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6298661833333336
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.899573957931583
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 37.66851677133944,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7121233705145836,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5541827725869446,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.065978029275139,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.735766973509031,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 4.195263418319825,
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2025,
    "scenario": "lower_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.04090909090909091,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 9.5,
      "services_activity": 1.05,
      "industry_activity": 0.95,
      "road_activity": 1.0,
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      "households_electric_intensity": 0.7,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.6,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
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      "space_heat_spf": 4.0,
      "water_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.9,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 1.5,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.65,
      "process_heat_intensity": 0.75,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.4,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 4,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.15,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.21,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.03,
      "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85,
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      "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
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      "services": 16.679873588923087,
      "industry": 16.0107181575,
      "transport": 4.587712036667988,
      "unallocated": 1.1940254516132744,
      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 57.86574479957011,
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    "annual_supply_accounting_before_storage_and_exports_twh": 62.14136879590626,
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    "components": [
      {
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle17!AA12; retirement allocation is a scenario assumption",
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        "sector": "services",
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_cooling",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 15.164196750834849,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_cooling",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.437534765397628,
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "electricity_twh": 3.302861217925033,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.09355922264584278,
        "change_twh": 0.09355922264584278,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA7",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
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          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.4462159198117396,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.04090909090909091
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_gas",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0899677080867304,
        "change_twh": 0.0899677080867304,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA8",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9846153846153847,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.4052486056981002,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.04090909090909091
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_resistance",
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.868773854851093
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.129252841897381
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        "sector": "services",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.818179189925733
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        "sector": "services",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0016176798656244156
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3348786079785186,
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        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5558968617149542
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6977612755872027
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5518995875416739
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.010209676601755181
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.8152284144539332
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 36.1275319943301,
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6829910508117143,
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        "sector": "transport",
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        "sector": "transport",
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      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
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      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.04817136723704545,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.08181818181818182
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.033322141849058705,
        "change_twh": 0.033322141849058705,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9961538461538462,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9727010718337854,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.1471198841361363,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.08181818181818182
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 0.13079270068055557,
        "electricity_twh": 0.1267328839856272,
        "change_twh": -0.004059816694928359,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9961538461538462,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9727010718337854
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0017457932639992953,
        "change_twh": 0.0017457932639992953,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9961538461538462,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9727010718337854,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.009249377926136363,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.016363636363636365
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.00016698867740746527,
        "change_twh": 0.00016698867740746527,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9961538461538462,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9727010718337854,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0008847218159090908,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.08181818181818182
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0006612756567045606,
        "change_twh": 0.0006612756567045606,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9961538461538462,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9727010718337854,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.003503501009164714,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.020454545454545454
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.06584268513720999,
        "change_twh": 0.06584268513720999,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.09244388457659856,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.33815664166901793,
        "change_twh": 0.33815664166901793,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.4747758006241226,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.028951878552187935,
        "change_twh": 0.028951878552187935,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.04064876931396014,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.027433558636392238,
        "change_twh": 0.027433558636392238,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.03851703075023552,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.04717897655733286,
        "change_twh": 0.04717897655733286,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.066239823819751,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0034319416714733565,
        "change_twh": 0.0034319416714733565,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0014042944857915538,
        "change_twh": 0.0014042944857915538,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2784935355548008,
        "change_twh": 0.5755496853436898,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 7.737440004411764,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.08181818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.013321251940377405,
        "change_twh": 0.0037586705345440726,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.05550188793914977,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.08181818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.09213720880162157,
        "change_twh": 0.025311922612316018,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.3761932292287234,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.08181818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.1288384093042592,
        "change_twh": 0.07699965992981475,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9929457040721802,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.08181818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 0.18017627019651822,
        "change_twh": 0.13461177568887933,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.6908195307050529,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.08181818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.1462644335487435,
        "change_twh": -0.09552203612906185,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 9.747902355668714
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 8.852942404615755
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.644671664549478
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.010749183930230945
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.1939059025185523,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.49313048875063,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.23197044870928535,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6523413427486184
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.8846874016577722
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.42492667495672
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5630387298833951,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7948149618131527,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.41721843446405543,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.493262514123033
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.84883996875645
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.759852950892664
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0015292423732791995
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3181250159607134,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.137949568964497,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5238098343029327
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5997644773668003
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5387323948101225
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.009620361936481222
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.34490504038800296,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.08975512837856692,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.16257090306053526
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3681963454401442
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.026819765228483
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.874638457366332
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5700632437834422
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.731943015204273
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 34.58654721732076,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.653858731108845,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.42702236392074,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.651488917788991,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.184658766585565,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    ],
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 4.195263418319825,
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2027,
    "scenario": "lower_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.12272727272727273,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 9.5,
      "services_activity": 1.05,
      "industry_activity": 0.95,
      "road_activity": 1.0,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.05,
      "households_electric_intensity": 0.7,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.6,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.85,
      "space_heat_spf": 4.0,
      "water_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.9,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 1.5,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.65,
      "process_heat_intensity": 0.75,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.4,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 4,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.15,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.21,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.03,
      "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85,
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      "residual_twh": 0,
      "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "district_heat_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.04
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
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      "services": 16.668765696806698,
      "industry": 16.197754503791383,
      "transport": 5.391020053973014,
      "unallocated": 1.0985034154842124,
      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 58.529681138348586,
    "change_from_2024_twh": 1.0176811383485855,
    "annual_supply_accounting_before_storage_and_exports_twh": 62.69920385484243,
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    "components": [
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        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
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          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.6908195307050529,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.12272727272727273,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.0985034154842124,
        "change_twh": -0.143283054193593,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 9.185026093667704
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 8.341744103011663
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.54245637007696
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.010128490344118935
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.1636214642551246,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.417303913431904,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.22876835388616126,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.572807728895653
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.79397006852632
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.41981348237193716
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5609293899873352,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7918373071333673,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4156553883670864,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.1247570495054235
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.573658729486263
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.7019566036612055
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.001442454850049932
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3012974172798506,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1234221467293315,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4924962795371477
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5041299373222317
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5257374555982093
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.009045252973959417
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.33940865111613083,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.08832479519422004,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.15830985465554595
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.29842556376229
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.668489099192627
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.817329728069087
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5409930315605108
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.649713335403787
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 33.04556244031142,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6247264114059756,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3634421595876378,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.444244362045918,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.9091046631238315,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    ],
    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 4.195263418319825,
      "feasible_lower_twh": 0,
      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
    },
    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2028,
    "scenario": "lower_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.16363636363636364,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 9.5,
      "services_activity": 1.05,
      "industry_activity": 0.95,
      "road_activity": 1.0,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.05,
      "households_electric_intensity": 0.7,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.6,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.85,
      "space_heat_spf": 4.0,
      "water_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.9,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 1.5,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.65,
      "process_heat_intensity": 0.75,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.4,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 4,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.15,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.21,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.03,
      "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85,
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      "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "district_heat_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.04
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
      "households": 19.057559958170373,
      "services": 16.65711637239789,
      "industry": 16.281832140104633,
      "transport": 5.792600632530048,
      "unallocated": 1.0507423974196815,
      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 58.83985150062263,
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    "annual_supply_accounting_before_storage_and_exports_twh": 62.95376802947218,
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    "components": [
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
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        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle17!AA12; retirement allocation is a scenario assumption",
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        "sector": "services",
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        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 14.637419839180618,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.35894912493808545,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.16363636363636364
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.3451699274229909,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9384615384615385,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.6209944227924007,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.16363636363636364
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9384615384615385,
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0084455041311469,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9384615384615385
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.028173655110550845,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0084455041311469,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9384615384615385,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.15877166870767534,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.03272727272727273
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0003492525297878852,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0084455041311469,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9384615384615385,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.001968200673189665,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.16363636363636364
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0752798694445303,
        "change_twh": 0.0752798694445303,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9769230769230769,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.2966614182423976,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.16363636363636364
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.09091635151315446,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0084455041311469,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9769230769230769,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.33837683719110073,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.16363636363636364
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.003189036788109195,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0084455041311469,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9769230769230769,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.03272727272727273
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 2.02657515849102,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9769230769230769,
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9769230769230769
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D8",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9430531885643534,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.18656692876562,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.16363636363636364
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.19442845156136557,
        "change_twh": 0.19442845156136557,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0076923076923077,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9430531885643534,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.8860681571535659,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.16363636363636364
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 1.037033997659623,
        "electricity_twh": 0.985501127512873,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0076923076923077,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9430531885643534
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.017216734094073545,
        "change_twh": 0.017216734094073545,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0076923076923077,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9430531885643534,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.09415412031581519,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.03272727272727273
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 5.109954625136116e-05,
        "change_twh": 5.109954625136116e-05,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0076923076923077,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9430531885643534,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.00027945095739675594,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.16363636363636364
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0076923076923077,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9430531885643534,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.04090909090909091
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.019965868586226114,
        "change_twh": 0.019965868586226114,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9923076923076923,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9454021436675708,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0963427344740909,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.16363636363636364
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.06456455963500658,
        "change_twh": 0.06456455963500658,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9923076923076923,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9454021436675708,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.2942397682722726,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.16363636363636364
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 0.13079270068055557,
        "electricity_twh": 0.12270053267947227,
        "change_twh": -0.008092168001083297,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9923076923076923,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9454021436675708
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.003382626897588198,
        "change_twh": 0.003382626897588198,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9923076923076923,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9454021436675708,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.018498755852272727,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.03272727272727273
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.00032355514449470266,
        "change_twh": 0.00032355514449470266,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9923076923076923,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9454021436675708,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0017694436318181816,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.16363636363636364
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0012812793296984844,
        "change_twh": 0.0012812793296984844,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9923076923076923,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9454021436675708,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.007007002018329428,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.04090909090909091
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.12860483583465954,
        "change_twh": 0.12860483583465954,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.18056266349278846,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.6604921913135486,
        "change_twh": 0.6604921913135486,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.9273386067152976,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.05654920634767574,
        "change_twh": 0.05654920634767574,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.07939573384057626,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.05358360305995305,
        "change_twh": 0.05358360305995305,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.0752319928348911,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.09215062420918979,
        "change_twh": 0.09215062420918979,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.1293805325573152,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.006892745940915804,
        "change_twh": 0.006892745940915804,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.002820399075324239,
        "change_twh": 0.002820399075324239,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 1.8540432208984905,
        "change_twh": 1.1510993706873793,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 7.737440004411764,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.16363636363636364,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.017079922474921478,
        "change_twh": 0.007517341069088145,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.05550188793914977,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.16363636363636364,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.11744913141393756,
        "change_twh": 0.05062384522463201,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.3761932292287234,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.16363636363636364,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.20583806923407394,
        "change_twh": 0.1539993198596295,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9929457040721802,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.16363636363636364,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 0.31478804588539755,
        "change_twh": 0.26922355137775866,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.6908195307050529,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.16363636363636364,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.0507423974196815,
        "change_twh": -0.19104407225812392,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 8.63354758021016
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.840897116769176
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.441002820389052
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.009520365256440132
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.1331905916384337,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.341110693851185,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.225550775972995,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4937887819189153
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7038397728020798
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4147165174225556
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5588062315585348,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7888401454889813,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.41408210257204575,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.76330619023131
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.3037455126129744
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.6444940148974165
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0013573287722642405
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.2843958119359302,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1088308338545778,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4619524040713667
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4108460702174894
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5129140415460203
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.00848428004508217
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3339309486892319,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.08689932491407332,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.15411152896027688
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.229976603894231
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.316947081328607
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.7606882616461808
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5124735604874936
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.5685349502736607
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 31.50457766330208,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5955940917031064,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.2998619552545356,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.236999806302844,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.6335505596620985,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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        "change_twh": 0.1138153966886032,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.1597981214252595,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.008633971549875438,
        "change_twh": 0.008633971549875438,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0035328801589935067,
        "change_twh": 0.0035328801589935067,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 2.1418180635703354,
        "change_twh": 1.4388742133592243,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 7.737440004411764,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.20454545454545453,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.01895925774219351,
        "change_twh": 0.009396676336360179,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.05550188793914977,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.20454545454545453,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.13010509272009557,
        "change_twh": 0.06327980653079002,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.3761932292287234,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.20454545454545453,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.24433789919898127,
        "change_twh": 0.19249914982453684,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9929457040721802,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.20454545454545453,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 0.3820939337298372,
        "change_twh": 0.3365294392221983,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.6908195307050529,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.20454545454545453,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.0029813793551505,
        "change_twh": -0.23880509032265484,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 8.093553781105182
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.350480427321522
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.340318751486432
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.00892490456592674
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.1026132846684806,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.264550830008476,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.22231771496978653,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4152899222744388
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6143026971453374
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.40963604034864143
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5566692545969939,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7858234768799951,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.41249857707893356,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.408958665533728
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.039136706662735
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.5874690512673575
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0012738756162497518
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.267420199928952,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0941756303402361,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.43217441455935746
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.319901290816568
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5002614242936411
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.007937373480741883
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.32847193310730616,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.08547871753812676,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1499756500848559
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1628432906422779
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.9721619969097866
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.704711342785237
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.48450225765081845
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.4884034350350777
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 29.963592886292734,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.566461772000237,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.2362817509214332,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.029755250559769,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.357996456200365,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    ],
    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 4.195263418319825,
      "feasible_lower_twh": 0,
      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
    },
    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2030,
    "scenario": "lower_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.24545454545454545,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 9.5,
      "services_activity": 1.05,
      "industry_activity": 0.95,
      "road_activity": 1.0,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.05,
      "households_electric_intensity": 0.7,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.6,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.85,
      "space_heat_spf": 4.0,
      "water_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
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      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.9,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 1.5,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.65,
      "process_heat_intensity": 0.75,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.4,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 4,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.15,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.21,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.03,
      "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85,
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      "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
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      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.04
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
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      "services": 16.621514755484785,
      "industry": 16.431275309404924,
      "transport": 6.595614929453161,
      "unallocated": 0.9552203612906195,
      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 59.41654366860457,
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    "annual_supply_accounting_before_storage_and_exports_twh": 63.41443264200012,
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    "components": [
      {
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle17!AA12; retirement allocation is a scenario assumption",
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        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 13.960633111297774,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.032950579825867,
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 14.289071940682286,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.43597542027777775,
        "electricity_twh": 0.4418460565270462,
        "change_twh": 0.005870636249268479,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.5229511194175142,
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        "source": "Tabelle20!AA7",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9076923076923077,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.24545454545454545
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.5028762779857744,
        "change_twh": 0.5028762779857744,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0126682561967204,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9076923076923077,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 2.431491634188601,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.24545454545454545
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.844614299120755,
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        "source": "Tabelle20!AA9",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9076923076923077,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.24545454545454545
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "baseline_twh": 2.628661286306001,
        "electricity_twh": 2.4162422863874498,
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        "source": "Tabelle20!AA10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0126682561967204,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9076923076923077
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.041046052085199757,
        "change_twh": 0.041046052085199757,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0126682561967204,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9076923076923077,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.238157503061513,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.049090909090909095
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0005088242002079733,
        "change_twh": 0.0005088242002079733,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0126682561967204,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.11205335995289886,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA7",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0126682561967204,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9653846153846154,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.4449921273635964,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.24545454545454545
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.1353281127727564,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0126682561967204,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9653846153846154,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.5075652557866511,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.24545454545454545
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.004746850516051205,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0126682561967204,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9653846153846154,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.021364398101727425,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.049090909090909095
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.8815840793051979,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0126682561967204,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9653846153846154,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.24545454545454545
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0126682561967204,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9653846153846154
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.3592550155808316,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0115384615384615,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9145797828465301,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.77985039314843,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0115384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9145797828465301,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.3291022357303488,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0115384615384615,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9145797828465301
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0115384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9145797828465301,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.14123118047372277,
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 7.465493811438513e-05,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0115384615384615,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9145797828465301,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.00041917643609513385,
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0115384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9145797828465301,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.06136363636363636
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.028990658762813964,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9884615384615385,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
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          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.14451410171113635,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.24545454545454545
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.09374844417443016,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9884615384615385,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9181032155013562,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.44135965240840896,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.24545454545454545
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.11869564676209075,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9884615384615385,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9181032155013562
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.004911611117061415,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9884615384615385,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9181032155013562,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.02774813377840909,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.049090909090909095
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.00046980559570896594,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9884615384615385,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9181032155013562,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0026541654477272724,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.24545454545454545
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0018604315493071573,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9884615384615385,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9181032155013562,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.010510503027494143,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.06136363636363636
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.1883163601937055,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.9671602517687813,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 1.3579040784146212,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.13493637333329384,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "replacement_fraction": 0.24545454545454545,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
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          "replacement_fraction": 0.24545454545454545,
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
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          "replacement_fraction": 0.24545454545454545,
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      },
      {
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        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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    ],
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.071889543345264,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5253650242163774
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.40457231139026034
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5545184591027122,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7827873013064082,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.779868700161695
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.001192106858334093
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.2503705812589159,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.2312840138834602
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.48777887548115745
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 28.422608109283395,
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5373294522973676,
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        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.8225106948166956,
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      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
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      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0005390955011284987,
        "change_twh": 0.0005390955011284987,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9865384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9044537514182489,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0030965263556818183,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.2863636363636364
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0021348197798187075,
        "change_twh": 0.0021348197798187075,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9865384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9044537514182489,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0122622535320765,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.0715909090909091
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.21703748377800122,
        "change_twh": 0.21703748377800122,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.3047231147599444,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.1146669744364073,
        "change_twh": 1.1146669744364073,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 1.5650052076614316,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.09543418313695179,
        "change_twh": 0.09543418313695179,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.13399068692580623,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.09042933964662918,
        "change_twh": 0.09042933964662918,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.12696382930329025,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.155516232940477,
        "change_twh": 0.155516232940477,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.21834657346943762,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.012138069716271523,
        "change_twh": 0.012138069716271523,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.004966699904137889,
        "change_twh": 0.004966699904137889,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 2.7173677489140253,
        "change_twh": 2.014423898702914,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 7.737440004411764,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.2863636363636364,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.022717928276737583,
        "change_twh": 0.01315534687090425,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.05550188793914977,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.2863636363636364,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.1554170153324116,
        "change_twh": 0.08859172914310603,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.3761932292287234,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.2863636363636364,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.321337559128796,
        "change_twh": 0.2694988097543516,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9929457040721802,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.2863636363636364,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5167057094187165,
        "change_twh": 0.47114121491107763,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.6908195307050529,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.2863636363636364,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 0.9074593432260886,
        "change_twh": -0.3343271264517168,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.048368189189289
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.401253864543661
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.141290000039754
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.007772359971325032
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.0410193676687842,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.110331169537077,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.21580514369324277,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.2598741468064034
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4370329366754864
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3995255907874786
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5523538450756901,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7797316187682207,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4093008069984942,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.721768536800317
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.5259778816360097
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.47474746607266
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0011120339748448918
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.2332469559258221,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0646735513927872,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.37490092001172487
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1449826541821606
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4754656667486553
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.006885480769241822
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.31760996247837403,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.08265209149883407,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.14189012923406905
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0324989032119292
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.302735769501229
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.5947402864997393
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4301938650322087
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.3312633151172837
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 26.881623332274057,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5081971325944983,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1091213422552286,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.615266139073622,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.806888249276899,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 4.195263418319825,
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2032,
    "scenario": "lower_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.32727272727272727,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 9.5,
      "services_activity": 1.05,
      "industry_activity": 0.95,
      "road_activity": 1.0,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.05,
      "households_electric_intensity": 0.7,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.6,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.85,
      "space_heat_spf": 4.0,
      "water_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.9,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 1.5,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.65,
      "process_heat_intensity": 0.75,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.4,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 4,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.15,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.21,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.03,
      "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85,
      "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.0,
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      "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "district_heat_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.04
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
      "households": 18.551481566126807,
      "services": 16.56935956591869,
      "industry": 16.555994301388534,
      "transport": 7.398433412788329,
      "unallocated": 0.8596983251615575,
      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 59.93496717138392,
    "change_from_2024_twh": 2.4229671713839167,
    "annual_supply_accounting_before_storage_and_exports_twh": 63.81080012096494,
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    "components": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 9.999668827958768,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_cooling",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.1996319971531555,
        "change_twh": 0.008957240531833666,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "legacy_heating_auxiliaries",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.4256896160025236,
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        "source": "Tabelle17!AA12; retirement allocation is a scenario assumption",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "baseline_twh": 14.646369183265765,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.9959738602629744,
        "electricity_twh": 1.0412165508657256,
        "change_twh": 0.04524269060275121,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 15.340923738428057,
        "electricity_twh": 13.942993409600884,
        "change_twh": -1.3979303288271723,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.43597542027777775,
        "electricity_twh": 0.4419683459456834,
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.007215467864701138
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        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.010002757639042,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.032671372908391,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.21252563341990763,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1829680718949118
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        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.349312617182949
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.39449613878036216
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.38902339123057
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        "sector": "services",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.277500639611831
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        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.419058577840142
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0010336684421097754
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.2160493239296706,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "services",
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        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3473978282836369
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0609856264766626
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4633210697362205
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.006380355283866857
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.31220700743136776,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.254245860880441
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 25.340638555264714,
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.479064812891629,
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      {
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
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      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0173076923076922,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8718696742697951,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0006287646541427009,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.3681818181818182
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0173076923076922,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8718696742697951,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.09204545454545456
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.041348594259876956,
        "change_twh": 0.041348594259876956,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9826923076923076,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8771548232520343,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.21677115256670454,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.3681818181818182
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.13371087605761534,
        "change_twh": 0.13371087605761534,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9826923076923076,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8771548232520343,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.6620394786126135,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.3681818181818182
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 0.13079270068055557,
        "electricity_twh": 0.1127398154899686,
        "change_twh": -0.018052885190586968,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9826923076923076,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8771548232520343
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.007005298392949001,
        "change_twh": 0.007005298392949001,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9826923076923076,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8771548232520343,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.04162220066761364,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.07363636363636365
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0006700710431219006,
        "change_twh": 0.0006700710431219006,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9826923076923076,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8771548232520343,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.00398124817159091,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.3681818181818182
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0026534833137096024,
        "change_twh": 0.0026534833137096024,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9826923076923076,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8771548232520343,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.015765754541241215,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.09204545454545456
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.2722291463194861,
        "change_twh": 0.2722291463194861,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.3822128415373873,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.3981218064236725,
        "change_twh": 1.3981218064236725,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 1.9629790405375345,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.11970266957040342,
        "change_twh": 0.11970266957040342,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.16806392002721396,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.11342511673889916,
        "change_twh": 0.11342511673889916,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.1592501639027524,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.19506331623118248,
        "change_twh": 0.19506331623118248,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.27387113167128774,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.015671030480636703,
        "change_twh": 0.015671030480636703,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.006412329753023405,
        "change_twh": 0.006412329753023405,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 3.292917434257715,
        "change_twh": 2.589973584046604,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 7.737440004411764,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.3681818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.02647659881128166,
        "change_twh": 0.016914017405448328,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.05550188793914977,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.3681818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.18072893794472758,
        "change_twh": 0.11390365175542203,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.3761932292287234,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.3681818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.39833721905861086,
        "change_twh": 0.3464984696841664,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9929457040721802,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.3681818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 0.6513174851075959,
        "change_twh": 0.605752990599957,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.6908195307050529,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.3681818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 0.8119373070970266,
        "change_twh": -0.42984916258077877,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.050165044392799
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.494696266143977
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.9454320037423436
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.006671623750171495
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.9788397132560365,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.954644932017711,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.20923064005653022,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1066037661398158
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.262210248399051
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3894842156089768
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5479831614234237,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7735617327980445,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.40606207812576844,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.063576497169513
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.034473362615311
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.3638227814055894
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0009570217364563707
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1987776852704612,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0349159098869851,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.32064544912439147
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9792813455309599
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4513443560839387
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.005889017486598477
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3068227392293347,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.07984491707634202,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1340510849842074
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9073429999217247
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.659956699153897
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.4873948367135954
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.37804727039610864
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.178257577419882
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 23.799653778255376,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.44993249318875966,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9819609335890241,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.2007770275874745,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.255780042353433,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      }
    ],
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
    },
    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2034,
    "scenario": "lower_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.40909090909090906,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 9.5,
      "services_activity": 1.05,
      "industry_activity": 0.95,
      "road_activity": 1.0,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.05,
      "households_electric_intensity": 0.7,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.6,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.85,
      "space_heat_spf": 4.0,
      "water_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.9,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 1.5,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.65,
      "process_heat_intensity": 0.75,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.4,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 4,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.15,
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        "change_twh": 0.12655961306158003,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.3761932292287234,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.40909090909090906,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.4368370490235181,
        "change_twh": 0.38499829964907367,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9929457040721802,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.40909090909090906,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 0.7186233729520355,
        "change_twh": 0.6730588784443966,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.6908195307050529,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.40909090909090906,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 0.7641762890324956,
        "change_twh": -0.4776101806453098,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.568899304187065
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.057615782169039
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.8487113787763056
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.006140923526468313
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.9475302345197678,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.876251846865038,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.20592016360311055,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0307866499971492
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1757320129840774
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.38449008151338876
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5457770917981796,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7704475293660557,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.40442735414229813,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.745476583850185
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.796932439172601
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.3090439434350625
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0008821053342123045
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1814320399481941,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0199412531747019,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.29463998918775614
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8998582261090461
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.43953479743189594
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.005411397708329085
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3014571578722748,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.07844862422139623,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.13022330185994294
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.846695291844952
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.348480561061612
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.4346999259768443
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3527782150375707
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.103294039956791
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 22.258669001246034,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4208001734858903,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9183807292559218,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.9935324718444005,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.9802259388917003,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 4.195263418319825,
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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  },
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    "year": 2035,
    "scenario": "lower_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.45,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 9.5,
      "services_activity": 1.05,
      "industry_activity": 0.95,
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      "households_electric_intensity": 0.7,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.6,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.85,
      "space_heat_spf": 4.0,
      "water_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
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      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.9,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 1.5,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.65,
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      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
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      "process_heatpump_cop": 4,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.15,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.21,
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      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
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      "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
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      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.04
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
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      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.8866419672702681,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.45
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.8526059049333103,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8307692307692307,
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          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.3851456213485653,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.8307692307692307,
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8307692307692307
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.06959188157018517,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0232251363606542,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8307692307692307,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0008626903607542197,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0232251363606542,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8307692307692307,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.20137036917384382,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA7",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0232251363606542,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9365384615384615,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.8158189001665934,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.45
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "water_new_electric_from_gas",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.2431972770839214,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0232251363606542,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9365384615384615,
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          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.008530534392115329,
        "change_twh": 0.008530534392115329,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0232251363606542,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9365384615384615,
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.5271847597410217,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0232251363606542,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9365384615384615,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.45
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "baseline_twh": 0.46938032113684663,
        "electricity_twh": 0.44980232478812576,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0232251363606542,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9365384615384615
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.6139749623815375,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.021153846153846,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8433962685519717,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 3.263059054105455,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.45
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.485455174469649,
        "change_twh": 0.485455174469649,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.021153846153846,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8433962685519717,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 2.4366874321723064,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.45
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 1.037033997659623,
        "electricity_twh": 0.8931324052258607,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.021153846153846,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8433962685519717
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.04298729217003555,
        "change_twh": 0.04298729217003555,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.021153846153846,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8433962685519717,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.2589238308684918,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.09000000000000001
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.00012758698092570563,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.021153846153846,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8433962685519717,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0007684901328410788,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.45
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.021153846153846,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8433962685519717,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.1125
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.04881060790491862,
        "change_twh": 0.04881060790491862,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9788461538461538,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8498558950858198,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.26494251980375,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.45
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.157841137303294,
        "change_twh": 0.157841137303294,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9788461538461538,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8498558950858198,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.8091593627487498,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.45
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 0.13079270068055557,
        "electricity_twh": 0.10880359304452061,
        "change_twh": -0.021989107636034955,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9788461538461538,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8498558950858198
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.008269516273422343,
        "change_twh": 0.008269516273422343,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9788461538461538,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8498558950858198,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.05087157859375,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.09000000000000001
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0007909960553604618,
        "change_twh": 0.0007909960553604618,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9788461538461538,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8498558950858198,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0048659699875,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.45
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0031323467200287114,
        "change_twh": 0.0031323467200287114,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9788461538461538,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8498558950858198,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.019269255550405928,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.1125
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.32444495277595964,
        "change_twh": 0.32444495277595964,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.45552443226424133,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.6662931563096124,
        "change_twh": 1.6662931563096124,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 2.3394946893745274,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.14266263367092633,
        "change_twh": 0.14266263367092633,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.20029997277579914,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.1351809941789679,
        "change_twh": 0.1351809941789679,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.18979566517963972,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.2324780769384428,
        "change_twh": 0.2324780769384428,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.3264018845267535,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.019232853842970972,
        "change_twh": 0.019232853842970972,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.007869769705650054,
        "change_twh": 0.007869769705650054,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 3.8684671196014047,
        "change_twh": 3.1655232693902935,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 7.737440004411764,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.45,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.03023526934582573,
        "change_twh": 0.0206726879399924,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.05550188793914977,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.45,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.20604086055704357,
        "change_twh": 0.13921557436773802,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.3761932292287234,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.45,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.4753368789884255,
        "change_twh": 0.4234981296139811,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9929457040721802,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.45,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 0.7859292607964752,
        "change_twh": 0.7403647662888363,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.6908195307050529,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.45,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
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        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
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        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
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      }
    ],
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.09964007318847
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        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "gas",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.7528066505996143
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.005623463092323803
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.9160743214302365,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.797492117450375,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.20259420405964867,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9555221439229452
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0898840935983143
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3795139967336641
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.543557203640195,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7673138189694664,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.40278239046075637,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.434772380505627
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.5649142578098543
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.2547259305946197
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0008089307117052048
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1640123879628694,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2693776551274986
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.822704682974915
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4278916654201777
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.004947426279951086
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.296110263360188,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.07705719427065058,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.12645631021629297
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7873261792221455
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.043571068054739
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.3826532709278068
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3280418904339452
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.0293508237123525
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 20.717684224236695,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.39166785378302105,
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        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8548005249228195,
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        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.7862879161013265,
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        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 4.195263418319825,
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      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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    "year": 2036,
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    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
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      "population_million": 9.5,
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        "change_twh": 0.14829412144008194,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.20820664614796605,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.2550294320814364,
        "change_twh": 0.2550294320814364,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.3580642456157703,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.021413933239087187,
        "change_twh": 0.021413933239087187,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.008762231775882343,
        "change_twh": 0.008762231775882343,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 4.220191927311437,
        "change_twh": 3.517248077100326,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 7.737440004411764,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.5,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.032532234672491556,
        "change_twh": 0.022969653266658223,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.05550188793914977,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.5,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.22150925770901447,
        "change_twh": 0.15468397151970892,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.3761932292287234,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.5,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5223922267233123,
        "change_twh": 0.4705534773488679,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9929457040721802,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.5,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 0.8681920126063458,
        "change_twh": 0.8226275180987069,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.6908195307050529,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.5,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 0.6686542529034336,
        "change_twh": -0.5731322167743718,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.559572990113141
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.140956238409527
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.6503511085290508
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0050279215902832046
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.8844719739874416,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.718365743773719,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1992527614261446,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8650868171522871
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9867320894573675
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3738010678374697
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5413234969494697,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7641606016082765,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4011271870811428,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.0755927482194347
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.296697078355844
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.1964353663859044
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0007243395355258646
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1465187293144872,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9898002678313701,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.24048224906886176
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7344553964123357
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4155746868669166
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.004416729362136226
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.29078205569307436,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.07567062722410509,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.12243182941166676
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7185404552932693
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.690299488226415
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.3265520511003692
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2993821055722387
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.9487643756592856
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 18.83425838566972,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3560616852572918,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7770913862934723,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.5329890146375695,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.3678834867545153,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 4.195263418319825,
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2037,
    "scenario": "lower_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.55,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 9.5,
      "services_activity": 1.05,
      "industry_activity": 0.95,
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      "households_electric_intensity": 0.7,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.6,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.85,
      "space_heat_spf": 4.0,
      "water_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
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      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.9,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 1.5,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.65,
      "process_heat_intensity": 0.75,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.4,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 4,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.15,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.21,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.03,
      "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85,
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      "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
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      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.04
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
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      "services": 16.41017160668042,
      "industry": 16.868420519201365,
      "transport": 9.586007762036608,
      "unallocated": 0.6208932348389027,
      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 61.333201351236596,
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    "annual_supply_accounting_before_storage_and_exports_twh": 64.90138144402995,
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    "components": [
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle17!AA12; retirement allocation is a scenario assumption",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 13.135962361241482,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_cooling",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.0527754944810972,
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 13.087725564346435,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_cooling",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "baseline_twh": 3.309249636231664,
        "electricity_twh": 3.2223818332805823,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_oil",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.0478440384969598,
        "change_twh": 1.0478440384969598,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA7",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.8,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 5.99912514413561,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.55
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.0076198145934903,
        "change_twh": 1.0076198145934903,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0274478884262277,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 5.44834236549668,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.55
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_resistance",
        "baseline_twh": 2.459562977975301,
        "electricity_twh": 1.1877242104408623,
        "change_twh": -1.271838767534439,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA9",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.55
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 2.1606499904022978,
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        "source": "Tabelle20!AA10",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_wood",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.08224451461011985,
        "change_twh": 0.08224451461011985,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0274478884262277,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.5336492198230199,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.11000000000000001
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0010195377446075165,
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        "source": "Tabelle20!AA12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0274478884262277,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
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          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.24409026600543576,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA7",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0274478884262277,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.925,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.9971119890925032,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.55
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.29479058065372327,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0274478884262277,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.925,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.1373221472256443,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.55
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.010340252230169772,
        "change_twh": 0.010340252230169772,
        "source": "Tabelle22!AA9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0274478884262277,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.925,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.04787207722794479,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.11000000000000001
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "baseline_twh": 2.3218838832072275,
        "electricity_twh": 1.3607943811162004,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0274478884262277,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.925,
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0274478884262277,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.925
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.7282522676717531,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.025,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8149228628341485,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 3.988183288351112,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.55
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.5758114798186423,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.025,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8149228628341485,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 2.978173528210597,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.55
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.8662302820848496,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.025,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8149228628341485
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.050988387022275025,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.025,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
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          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.31646245995037886,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.11000000000000001
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.025,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8149228628341485,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0009392657179168742,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.55
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.025,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8149228628341485,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.1375
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.975,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8225569669196052,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.55
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.18614043600359517,
        "change_twh": 0.18614043600359517,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.975,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8225569669196052,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.9889725544706942,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.55
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.10489483598784603,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.975,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8225569669196052
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.00975215581294178,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.975,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8225569669196052,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.062176373836805555,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.11000000000000001
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.975,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8225569669196052,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.005947296651388889,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.55
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.975,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8225569669196052,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.1375
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.38649138599232674,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.984952904773157,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 2.7868966284780714,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "change_twh": 0.16994525125150117,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
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          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "change_twh": 0.2769368837456213,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
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          "replacement_fraction": 0.55,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
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        "change_twh": 0.17015236867167985,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
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          "replacement_fraction": 0.55,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
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        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
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        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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    ],
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "sector": "services",
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        "sector": "services",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1289510640030467,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.003902474076188833
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2854725348709339,
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 16.950832547102745,
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3204555167315626,
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.2796901131738125,
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        "sector": "transport",
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 4.195263418319825,
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      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
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      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.003956790619463584,
        "change_twh": 0.003956790619463584,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9730769230769231,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8089075028364979,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.02569234073387457,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.15
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.41617123038122966,
        "change_twh": 0.41617123038122966,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.5843091773260818,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 2.1373834516576813,
        "change_twh": 2.1373834516576813,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 3.0009108633589223,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.18299586193672274,
        "change_twh": 0.18299586193672274,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.2569282875329345,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.1733990317626155,
        "change_twh": 0.1733990317626155,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.24345422797616503,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.2982037060164828,
        "change_twh": 0.2982037060164828,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.4186814210546606,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.025802549412791302,
        "change_twh": 0.025802549412791302,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.010557981844776295,
        "change_twh": 0.010557981844776295,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 4.923641542731502,
        "change_twh": 4.220697692520392,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 7.737440004411764,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.6,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.03712616532582319,
        "change_twh": 0.027563583919989858,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.05550188793914977,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.6,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.2524460520129562,
        "change_twh": 0.18562076582365067,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.3761932292287234,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.6,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.6165029221930858,
        "change_twh": 0.5646641728186413,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9929457040721802,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.6,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 1.0327175162260873,
        "change_twh": 0.9871530217184484,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.6908195307050529,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.6,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5731322167743718,
        "change_twh": -0.6686542529034336,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.5244665556417987
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.200883460424325
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.448689035107184
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.003886491460443263
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.820827976042064,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.5590130636344295,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.19252342688900975,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6863049699902903
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7828106076945143
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.36245004947457793
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5368146279697974,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7577956459920953,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.39778606122770094,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.3849135786519713
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7809328141354959
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.0816725802976697
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0005616761825278061
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.111309392028549,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9594037199296854,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.18537244443994594
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5661448721983569
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.39152672707160036
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0034045752709774032
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2801817008937666,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.07291208184361456,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.11459808926019947
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5855821820697116
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.007448795523102
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.2166362061664944
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.24398462934430482
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.7912094736977373
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 15.067406708535778,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.28484934820583346,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6216731090347779,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.0263912117100555,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.6943067894036123,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    ],
    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 4.195263418319825,
      "feasible_lower_twh": 0,
      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
    },
    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2039,
    "scenario": "lower_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.6499999999999999,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 9.5,
      "services_activity": 1.05,
      "industry_activity": 0.95,
      "road_activity": 1.0,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.05,
      "households_electric_intensity": 0.7,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.6,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.85,
      "space_heat_spf": 4.0,
      "water_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.9,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 1.5,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.65,
      "process_heat_intensity": 0.75,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.4,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 4,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.15,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.21,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.03,
      "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85,
      "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.0,
      "residual_twh": 0,
      "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "district_heat_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.04
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
      "households": 17.54767039217463,
      "services": 16.340715450973114,
      "industry": 17.010050644804398,
      "transport": 10.569525723171587,
      "unallocated": 0.5253711987098408,
      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 61.99333340983357,
    "change_from_2024_twh": 4.481333409833567,
    "annual_supply_accounting_before_storage_and_exports_twh": 65.44034527516625,
    "effective_loss_fraction": 0.052674108775535085,
    "components": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "baseline_twh": 10.833593976619063,
        "electricity_twh": 9.2422718457217,
        "change_twh": -1.591322130897364,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_cooling",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "legacy_heating_auxiliaries",
        "baseline_twh": 0.5934028299616816,
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        "source": "Tabelle17!AA12; retirement allocation is a scenario assumption",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "baseline_twh": 14.646369183265765,
        "electricity_twh": 12.895467245954134,
        "change_twh": -1.7509019373116317,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.9959738602629744,
        "electricity_twh": 1.0536942033004826,
        "change_twh": 0.05772034303750817,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 15.340923738428057,
        "electricity_twh": 12.74958981922428,
        "change_twh": -2.5913339192037768,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.43597542027777775,
        "electricity_twh": 0.43537777105256625,
        "change_twh": -0.000597649225211494,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
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        "electricity_twh": 3.2082832549487086,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.1956257017874372,
        "change_twh": 1.1956257017874372,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA7",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.7692307692307693,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.6499999999999999
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      {
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          "activity": 1.031670640491801,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.031670640491801,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.031670640491801,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
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        "sector": "households",
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          "activity": 1.031670640491801,
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        "sector": "households",
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          "activity": 1.031670640491801,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
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        "sector": "households",
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          "activity": 1.031670640491801,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.031670640491801,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.031670640491801,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "services",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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          "activity": 1.028846153846154,
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          "activity": 1.028846153846154,
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        "sector": "services",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.028846153846154,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.7864494571163252,
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        "sector": "industry",
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          "activity": 0.9711538461538461,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9711538461538461,
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "industry",
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          "activity": 0.9711538461538461,
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          "activity": 0.9711538461538461,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9711538461538461,
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.35681259615026406
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5345394656808502,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.0535331572736855
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5334746790997527
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        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.025209810268516
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        "sector": "services",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0004836320589543988
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.15914877324554347
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4860553150811641
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.37979396539419935
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0029229477953704305
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 13.183980869968808,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.24924317968010434,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7730923102462992,
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 4.195263418319825,
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      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
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      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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    "year": 2040,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.7816085746702833,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.41213280858361107,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.7
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.22408234861214169,
        "change_twh": 0.22408234861214169,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9692307692307692,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7816085746702833,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.2586923420536107,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.7
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 0.13079270068055557,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0990831980067843,
        "change_twh": -0.03170950267377126,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9692307692307692,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7816085746702833
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.01173998527946575,
        "change_twh": 0.01173998527946575,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9692307692307692,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7816085746702833,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.07913356670138887,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.13999999999999999
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0011229534762381172,
        "change_twh": 0.0011229534762381172,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9692307692307692,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7816085746702833,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.007569286647222221,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.7
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.004446899089068615,
        "change_twh": 0.004446899089068615,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9692307692307692,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7816085746702833,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.029974397522853666,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.175
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.47286702118678847,
        "change_twh": 0.47286702118678847,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.663910717425577,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 2.428563226231336,
        "change_twh": 2.428563226231336,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 3.40973060416434,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.20792573298317485,
        "change_twh": 0.20792573298317485,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.2919301122113343,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.1970215085534646,
        "change_twh": 0.1970215085534646,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.27662045613523684,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.33882855872017753,
        "change_twh": 0.33882855872017753,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.47571917986500567,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0302264420951243,
        "change_twh": 0.0302264420951243,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.012368166484909411,
        "change_twh": 0.012368166484909411,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 5.627091158151568,
        "change_twh": 4.924147307940458,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 7.737440004411764,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.7,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.04172009597915484,
        "change_twh": 0.032157514573321506,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.05550188793914977,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.7,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.28338284631689803,
        "change_twh": 0.21655756012759247,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.3761932292287234,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.7,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.7106136176628594,
        "change_twh": 0.6587748682884149,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9929457040721802,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.7,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 1.1972430198458286,
        "change_twh": 1.1516785253381898,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.6908195307050529,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.7,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 0.4776101806453097,
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        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
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    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.550105707039209
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.315979184688019
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.2514220100572544
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.002812046560002255
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7565982406836342,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.398193806447172,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.18573215999170595,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5103523646795124
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5821162051890046
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3512009374922941
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5322504848591625,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7513526625175123,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.39440397658197274,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7315382554343528
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.293025175267359
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.9693657568162506
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0004077983394949466
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0758040280903798,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9287516094696473,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1338064077150957
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.40865734831330663
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3682541622400725
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0024575064982364087
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.26965609347435154,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.07017298807992464,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.10704906306089419
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4587244919653847
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.355929642466491
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.1097470294264498
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.19112897996272193
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.638442510175662
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 11.300555031401833,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2136370111543751,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.46625483177608346,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.519793408782542,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.0207300920527094,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    ],
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2041,
    "scenario": "lower_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.73,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 9.5,
      "services_activity": 1.05,
      "industry_activity": 0.95,
      "road_activity": 1.0,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.05,
      "households_electric_intensity": 0.7,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.6,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.85,
      "space_heat_spf": 4.0,
      "water_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.9,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 1.5,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.65,
      "process_heat_intensity": 0.75,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.4,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 4,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.15,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.21,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.03,
      "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85,
      "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.0,
      "residual_twh": 0,
      "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "district_heat_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.04
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
      "households": 17.203418243121984,
      "services": 16.204870727017305,
      "industry": 17.011055265031732,
      "transport": 11.353324562825257,
      "unallocated": 0.42984916258077877,
      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 62.202517960577055,
    "change_from_2024_twh": 4.690517960577054,
    "annual_supply_accounting_before_storage_and_exports_twh": 65.50182699711813,
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    "components": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 9.021121997569514,
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        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
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    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.252848254803808
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.046013092705936
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.1693047974090307
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0024842555222871496
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.724263721474525,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.317234211460554,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.18231330190799072,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4573298774407077
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5216378941293156
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.34724181694396244
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5299476855047341,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7481019103333199,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3926975747120012,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5325075055723054
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1443990797039019
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.9231528877289557
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0003609241748338736
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0579403361267086,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9133297182802458,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.11808796845946408
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3606517571348394
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3585859870498601
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0021688195267193415
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2644213200321037,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.06881073555437991,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1040166622330641
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4195834536889004
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.154908040333585
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.067111164346438
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.579618468157609
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 10.170499528261649,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1922733100389376,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.41962934859847506,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3678140679042876,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.8186570828474384,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 4.195263418319825,
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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    "year": 2042,
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    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.76,
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      "population_million": 9.5,
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        "sector": "services",
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        "sector": "industry",
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      {
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0346153846153847,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7437393485395901
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.06501710581665718,
        "change_twh": 0.06501710581665718,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0346153846153847,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7437393485395901,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.43729358102234167,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.15200000000000002
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.00019297182541441204,
        "change_twh": 0.00019297182541441204,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0346153846153847,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7437393485395901,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0012978944465760441,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.76
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0346153846153847,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7437393485395901,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.19
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.07238957301136668,
        "change_twh": 0.07238957301136668,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9653846153846154,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7543096465040687,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.44745847789077775,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.76
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.2340895355221044,
        "change_twh": 0.2340895355221044,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9653846153846154,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7543096465040687,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.3665802570867773,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.76
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 0.13079270068055557,
        "electricity_twh": 0.09524310442204326,
        "change_twh": -0.03554959625851231,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9653846153846154,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7543096465040687
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.012264275692072836,
        "change_twh": 0.012264275692072836,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9653846153846154,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7543096465040687,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.08591644384722223,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.15200000000000002
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0011731029208396553,
        "change_twh": 0.0011731029208396553,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9653846153846154,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7543096465040687,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.008218082645555555,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.76
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.004645491038098379,
        "change_twh": 0.004645491038098379,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9653846153846154,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7543096465040687,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.03254363159624112,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.19
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.4997393394852151,
        "change_twh": 0.4997393394852151,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.7016397603087547,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 2.5665748047494406,
        "change_twh": 2.5665748047494406,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 3.603500442198355,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.21974183820686824,
        "change_twh": 0.21974183820686824,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.30852005937353993,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.2082179431794131,
        "change_twh": 0.2082179431794131,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.29234037867596685,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.3580836737325842,
        "change_twh": 0.3580836737325842,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.502753582031422,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.03295133072178188,
        "change_twh": 0.03295133072178188,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0134831464114676,
        "change_twh": 0.0134831464114676,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 6.049160927403607,
        "change_twh": 5.346217077192496,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 7.737440004411764,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.76,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.04447645437115383,
        "change_twh": 0.034913872965320496,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.05550188793914977,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.76,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.3019449228992631,
        "change_twh": 0.23511963670995756,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.3761932292287234,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.76,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.7670800349447235,
        "change_twh": 0.7152412855702791,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9929457040721802,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.76,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2959583220176736,
        "change_twh": 1.2503938275100346,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.6908195307050529,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.76,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
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        "change_twh": -0.8596983251615575,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.9648089319931705
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7844188089240318
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.087755442601193
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0021666294785434746
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.691782767912152,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.235907972211944,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.17887896073423323,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4047384014814046
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.46165120154302125
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3432949076645348
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5276310676175651,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7448316511845269,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.39098093314395793,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3391318906142278
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9999959528085739
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.8772627290892419
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.00031538186329023584
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0400026374999796,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8978439364512562,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.10289645807738057
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.31425545627281476
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3490427265417208
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0018898102018334434
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2592052334348291,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.06745334593303534,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.10102932888918753
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.38135219170548085
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.9585588918725143
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.0249613804083735
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.15889157148538954
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.5215504733464504
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 9.040444025121465,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.17090960892350007,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.37300386542086666,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.2158347270260332,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6165840736421673,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      }
    ],
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
    },
    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2043,
    "scenario": "lower_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.7899999999999999,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 9.5,
      "services_activity": 1.05,
      "industry_activity": 0.95,
      "road_activity": 1.0,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.05,
      "households_electric_intensity": 0.7,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.6,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
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        "electricity_twh": 0.045854633567153316,
        "change_twh": 0.03629205216131998,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.05550188793914977,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.7899999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.3112259611904456,
        "change_twh": 0.24440067500114004,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.3761932292287234,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.7899999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.7953132435856556,
        "change_twh": 0.7434744942112111,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9929457040721802,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.7899999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 1.3453159731035957,
        "change_twh": 1.2997514785959567,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.6908195307050529,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.7899999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 0.3343271264517169,
        "change_twh": -0.9074593432260885,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6860515135339682
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5312542530600135
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.006779618700906
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0018592387545081843
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6591553799965169,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.154215088701342,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.17542913647043354,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3525819118026949
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4021606613809981
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3393604004967262
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5253006311976556,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7415418850711337,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.38925405187784323,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.151447145331016
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8598424795005537
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.83169811645222
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.00027117982083762685
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0219909322101928,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8822942639826779,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.08822909478160819
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.269459949887495
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3396238465850507
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0016204274328998122
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2540078336825276,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.06610081921589091,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.09808686071002483
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3440261775397537
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7668589396170848
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.983295686383183
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.14333957210771547
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.464235280904391
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.910388521981285,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.14954590780806262,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3263783822432585,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0638553861477795,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.414511064436897,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 4.195263418319825,
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2044,
    "scenario": "lower_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.82,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 9.5,
      "services_activity": 1.05,
      "industry_activity": 0.95,
      "road_activity": 1.0,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.05,
      "households_electric_intensity": 0.7,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.6,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.85,
      "space_heat_spf": 4.0,
      "water_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
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      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
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      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.9,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 1.5,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.65,
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      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.4,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 4,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.15,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.21,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
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      "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
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      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
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      "industry": 16.809952411298642,
      "transport": 12.229370709988304,
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 61.850901474130026,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.3713860037832635,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.82
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.3187417784523747,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.6923076923076923,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 8.12298316310414,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.6923076923076923,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.6923076923076923
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.1076390875745711,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0422275206557348,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.6923076923076923,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0013343395981801544,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.6923076923076923,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.009862872262317099,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.82
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.35303447009049055,
        "change_twh": 0.35303447009049055,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8846153846153846,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.486603329192459,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.82
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "water_new_electric_from_gas",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.4263637306472417,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8846153846153846,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.6956439285909601,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.014955391406713056,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0422275206557348,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "baseline_twh": 2.3218838832072275,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0422275206557348,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8846153846153846,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.82
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.4327548089188504,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0422275206557348,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8846153846153846
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.9679130581532281,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0384615384615385,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7152659428217667,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 5.946018720814385,
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.765305478735848,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0384615384615385,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7152659428217667,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 4.44018598751398,
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.7702841423847836,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0384615384615385,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.7152659428217667
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.06776817293108008,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0384615384615385,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7152659428217667,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.47181675847147386,
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0002011370372650407,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0384615384615385,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7152659428217667,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0014003597976215212,
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0384615384615385,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7152659428217667,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.205
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.07505687187794545,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9615384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7270107183378541,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.4827841471979444,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.82
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.2427149041601818,
        "change_twh": 0.2427149041601818,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9615384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7270107183378541,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.474468172119944,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.82
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.09143047622607563,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9615384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7270107183378541
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.012716170727394276,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9615384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7270107183378541,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.09269932099305554,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.164
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.001216327600320007,
        "change_twh": 0.001216327600320007,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9615384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7270107183378541,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.008866878643888888,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.82
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.004816660896755731,
        "change_twh": 0.004816660896755731,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9615384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.7270107183378541,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.03511286566962858,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.205
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.5245548665762534,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 2.6940230594016445,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 3.782439252455031,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.23065354578761274,
        "change_twh": 0.23065354578761274,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.32384022187945627,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.21855740938019608,
        "change_twh": 0.21855740938019608,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.30685710772577673,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.3758650137317986,
        "change_twh": 0.3758650137317986,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
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          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
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        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.05550188793914977,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.82,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
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        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
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          "replacement_fraction": 0.82,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
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        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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    ],
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6263815577276184,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5229563762450055,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.00022832646344963966
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      {
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.001360620129239544
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      {
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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      {
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      {
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      {
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      {
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.407669645993631
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        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1281822066926251,
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        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2797528990656501,
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        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9118760452695253,
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      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
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      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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      "population_million": 9.5,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.33102836524809015,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.22340863503642985,
        "change_twh": 0.22340863503642985,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.3136682841485691,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.38420792922968694,
        "change_twh": 0.38420792922968694,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.5394323361677553,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.03707834973397574,
        "change_twh": 0.03707834973397574,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.015171855193948943,
        "change_twh": 0.015171855193948943,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 6.682265581281666,
        "change_twh": 5.979321731070555,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 7.737440004411764,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.85,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.048610991959152305,
        "change_twh": 0.03904841055331897,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.05550188793914977,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.85,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.3297880377728107,
        "change_twh": 0.2629627515835051,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.3761932292287234,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.85,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.8517796608675198,
        "change_twh": 0.7999409114930753,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9929457040721802,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.85,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 1.4440312752754407,
        "change_twh": 1.398466780767802,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.6908195307050529,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.85,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 0.23880509032265484,
        "change_twh": -1.0029813793551505,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.156637489376545
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0504460039564552
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.8465712558916314
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.001275444568510567
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.593461301105457,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.9897293888941605,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1684830386727075,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.24958979129141914
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.28468617413326763
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.33152935586682647
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5205983027596145,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7349038319505455,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.38576957025139885,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7932932028727708
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5923912333231484
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7415568714066922
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.00018683020709986766
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9857455016414465,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8510032471267572,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.06045568230004838
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.18463733718801764
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3211570918037035
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0011103372001737362
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.24366909471284415,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.06341035449420253,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0923357105688825
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2720717787598859
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3973135938583559
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.90140860315512
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.11335954905792191
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.351850323776373
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.650277515700917,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.10681850557718756,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.23312741588804173,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.759896704391271,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0103650460263547,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 4.195263418319825,
      "feasible_lower_twh": 0,
      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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  },
  {
    "year": 2046,
    "scenario": "lower_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.88,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 9.5,
      "services_activity": 1.05,
      "industry_activity": 0.95,
      "road_activity": 1.0,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.05,
      "households_electric_intensity": 0.7,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.6,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.85,
      "space_heat_spf": 4.0,
      "water_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.9,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 1.5,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.65,
      "process_heat_intensity": 0.75,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.4,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 4,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.15,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.21,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.03,
      "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85,
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      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
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      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.04
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
      "households": 16.216773474345278,
      "services": 15.68331733874694,
      "industry": 16.655690585453524,
      "transport": 12.813156707778745,
      "unallocated": 0.19104407225812392,
      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 61.55998217858261,
    "change_from_2024_twh": 4.047982178582608,
    "annual_supply_accounting_before_storage_and_exports_twh": 64.43431762939946,
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    "components": [
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        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 8.459009884802612,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle17!AA12; retirement allocation is a scenario assumption",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 12.036672188998958,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_cooling",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.039800450116524,
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 11.58398597970503,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_cooling",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.41820971956332914,
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "electricity_twh": 3.157396198782099,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_oil",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.412018975586845,
        "change_twh": 1.412018975586845,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA7",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.6615384615384615,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 9.598600230616976,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.88
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.357814947751344,
        "change_twh": 1.357814947751344,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0464502727213083,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.6615384615384615,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 8.717347784794688,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.88
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_resistance",
        "baseline_twh": 2.459562977975301,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5789093431309671,
        "change_twh": -1.8806536348443341,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA9",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.6615384615384615,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.88
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.8197357347340763,
        "change_twh": -0.8089255515719245,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0464502727213083,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.6615384615384615
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.11082833990638356,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0464502727213083,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0464502727213083,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.8730769230769231,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0464502727213083,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8730769230769231,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.8197154355610305,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.015904524276221632,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0464502727213083,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.8730769230769231,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.07659532356471166,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.17600000000000002
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0464502727213083,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0464502727213083,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.8730769230769231
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0423076923076924,
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          "activity": 1.0423076923076924,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0423076923076924,
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0423076923076924,
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      {
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0423076923076924,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.6867925371039435,
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0423076923076924,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.6867925371039435,
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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          "activity": 0.9576923076923076,
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9576923076923076,
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9576923076923076,
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9576923076923076,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9576923076923076,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9576923076923076,
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "calculation_details": {
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "services",
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        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.04734406953978695
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.14459323919438424
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3121081487178189
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.296774069414819
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.520222012560732,
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        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.08545480446175004,
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        "sector": "transport",
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        "sector": "transport",
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 4.195263418319825,
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      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
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      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.6860623260885321,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.10287363671180554,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.182
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0012683510385307797,
        "change_twh": 0.0012683510385307797,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9557692307692307,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.6860623260885321,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.009840072641388888,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.9099999999999999
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.005022673866023789,
        "change_twh": 0.005022673866023789,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9557692307692307,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.6860623260885321,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.03896671677970976,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.22749999999999998
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5579696512782176,
        "change_twh": 0.5579696512782176,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.783395785462254,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 2.8656356136795047,
        "change_twh": 2.8656356136795047,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 4.023385245567213,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.2453464579390956,
        "change_twh": 0.2453464579390956,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.3444692389402775,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.23247978289114063,
        "change_twh": 0.23247978289114063,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.32640427970389374,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.3998080734784822,
        "change_twh": 0.3998080734784822,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.5613351174912787,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.039856153123576654,
        "change_twh": 0.039856153123576654,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.016308486977365876,
        "change_twh": 0.016308486977365876,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 7.104335350533705,
        "change_twh": 6.401391500322594,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 7.737440004411764,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.9099999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.05136735035115129,
        "change_twh": 0.041804768945317955,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.05550188793914977,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.9099999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.34835011435517577,
        "change_twh": 0.2815248281658702,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.3761932292287234,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.9099999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.9082460781493839,
        "change_twh": 0.8564073287749394,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9929457040721802,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.9099999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 1.5427465774472853,
        "change_twh": 1.4971820829396463,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.6908195307050529,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.9099999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 0.143283054193593,
        "change_twh": -1.0985034154842124,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6651163817449011
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6040517031369153
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.6887250935185123
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0007334355701899297
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5271814848013454,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.82377711203901,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.16147500851481253,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.14838531591561147
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.16925070399313247
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3237502097959839
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5158407001906111,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7281877509715555,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.38224412983266803,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.45833155636473555
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.34225882052511314
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6527518370332523
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.00010794266140934234
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9492040444204688,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8194566677124828,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.03474547671688845
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.10611595231850379
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3031814496609884
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0006381401031098905
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.23340510312305335,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.06073934138931475,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0867615932557199
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.20368402954631618
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.046085943327825
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.8214339848296512
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.08486558159362888
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.2424376380711717
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.3901665094205526,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.06409110334631259,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.13987644953282513,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4559380226347629,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6062190276158133,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    ],
    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 4.195263418319825,
      "feasible_lower_twh": 0,
      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2048,
    "scenario": "lower_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.94,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 9.5,
      "services_activity": 1.05,
      "industry_activity": 0.95,
      "road_activity": 1.0,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.05,
      "households_electric_intensity": 0.7,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.6,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.85,
      "space_heat_spf": 4.0,
      "water_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.9,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 1.5,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.65,
      "process_heat_intensity": 0.75,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.4,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 4,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.15,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.21,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.03,
      "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85,
      "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.0,
      "residual_twh": 0,
      "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "district_heat_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.04
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
      "households": 15.79667555741537,
      "services": 15.449324864995276,
      "industry": 16.485508697082842,
      "transport": 13.39674689198124,
      "unallocated": 0.09552203612906185,
      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 61.22377804760379,
    "change_from_2024_twh": 3.7117780476037865,
    "annual_supply_accounting_before_storage_and_exports_twh": 63.928222064791015,
    "effective_loss_fraction": 0.042304383413733646,
    "components": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 10.833593976619063,
        "electricity_twh": 8.230470042741272,
        "change_twh": -2.603123933877791,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.19067475662132183,
        "electricity_twh": 0.1982030583080416,
        "change_twh": 0.007528301686719779,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "legacy_heating_auxiliaries",
        "baseline_twh": 0.5934028299616816,
        "electricity_twh": 0.09601474132603209,
        "change_twh": -0.4973880886356495,
        "source": "Tabelle17!AA12; retirement allocation is a scenario assumption",
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 14.646369183265765,
        "electricity_twh": 11.786427271740497,
        "change_twh": -2.8599419115252687,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.9959738602629744,
        "electricity_twh": 1.0308442787115082,
        "change_twh": 0.03487041844853378,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 15.340923738428057,
        "electricity_twh": 11.256062387959044,
        "change_twh": -4.084861350469012,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_cooling",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4938219251193952,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.7402510072184465,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1579477688008017,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.09846338265623626
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1123089352156029
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3198805758269966
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5134411711069985,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7248004500351596,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.38046605007619516,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2996371810192857
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.22375388894130502
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6088574877363409
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.056820401577551e-05
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9308223058153934,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.02265712204411581
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.06919698072063822
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2943764605026087
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0004161237537540463
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2283011375956178,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.08404041611153194
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.17081632733846158
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8772831101076423
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7821588719327022
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.1888377849076326
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.2601110062803684,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.04272740223087505,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.09325096635521676,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.30395868175650864,
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4041460184105422,
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 4.195263418319825,
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
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      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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    "year": 2049,
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    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
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      "population_million": 9.5,
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0480769230769231,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.6440824285272085,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.2425
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.07988716608398501,
        "change_twh": 0.07988716608398501,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9519230769230769,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.6587633979223178,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.5710983204658611,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.97
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.2583348516207002,
        "change_twh": 0.2583348516207002,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9519230769230769,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.6587633979223178,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.7441879597028604,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.97
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 0.13079270068055557,
        "electricity_twh": 0.08201906681204021,
        "change_twh": -0.048773633868515354,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9519230769230769,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.6587633979223178
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.013534521455991457,
        "change_twh": 0.013534521455991457,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9519230769230769,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.6587633979223178,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.10965651385763887,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.194
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.001294604512393105,
        "change_twh": 0.001294604512393105,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9519230769230769,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.6587633979223178,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.010488868639722222,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.97
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.005126637700210723,
        "change_twh": 0.005126637700210723,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 0.9519230769230769,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.6587633979223178,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.04153595085309722,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.2425
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5777391555093048,
        "change_twh": 0.5777391555093048,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.8111523959872761,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 2.967168367763191,
        "change_twh": 2.967168367763191,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 4.165938395999896,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.25403936413425837,
        "change_twh": 0.25403936413425837,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.3566741788704487,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.24071680804292073,
        "change_twh": 0.24071680804292073,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.33796915742415806,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.41397373173991076,
        "change_twh": 0.41397373173991076,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.5812238640474392,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.4
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.04265512241835492,
        "change_twh": 0.04265512241835492,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.017453779503526307,
        "change_twh": 0.017453779503526307,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 7.5264051197857444,
        "change_twh": 6.823461269574634,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 7.737440004411764,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.97,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.05412370874315028,
        "change_twh": 0.044561127337316944,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.05550188793914977,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.97,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.36691219093754085,
        "change_twh": 0.3000869047482353,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.3761932292287234,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.97,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.964712495431248,
        "change_twh": 0.9128737460568036,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9929457040721802,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.97,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 1.6414618796191305,
        "change_twh": 1.5958973851114915,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 1.6908195307050529,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.97,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 0.047761018064530925,
        "change_twh": -1.1940254516132744,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.21199839005239793
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.19253470834304368
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.5332865161188525
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.00023377436544190123
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4603159310841822,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.656358258135891,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.15440504599674867,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.04900028568400201
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0558905225676001
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3160244890259188
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5110278234906452,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7213936421341633,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3786777306216508,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.14684808397407523
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1096587204598745
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5653056977727817
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.4584511554796976e-05
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9123665605472602,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7876545257398555,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.011076223734232003
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.03382782856104961
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2856926471120757
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.00020342741627705035
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.22321585891315532,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.05808777990122761,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.08136289021661992
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.13882670209606374
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7129899282959185
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7433559015741769
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.05784257528854935
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.1359712650864044
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1300555031401842,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.021363701115437526,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.04662548317760838,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.15197934087825432,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2020730092052711,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      }
    ],
    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 4.195263418319825,
      "feasible_lower_twh": 0,
      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
    },
    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2050,
    "scenario": "lower_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 1.0,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 9.5,
      "services_activity": 1.05,
      "industry_activity": 0.95,
      "road_activity": 1.0,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.05,
      "households_electric_intensity": 0.7,
      "services_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 0.75,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.6,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 0.85,
      "space_heat_spf": 4.0,
      "water_heat_spf": 3.3,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0.9,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 1.5,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 0.65,
      "process_heat_intensity": 0.75,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.4,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 4,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.15,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.21,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.85,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.03,
      "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85,
      "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.0,
      "residual_twh": 0,
      "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "district_heat_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.04
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          "charging_efficiency": 0.94,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.85
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": -1.2417864696778054,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.456484254451976
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4266635026957053,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.5720988647913425,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1508468401026534,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3121821402354655
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5086006573415515,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7179673272685665,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.37687917146903477,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.522099302697685
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8938368086160692,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7716576187941594,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.27712947535878574
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.218149267075666,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.056769293513484254,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.07872881325174425
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.10771062534375003
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.553183140426458
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.705023082525
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.044877965562499976
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.0838348337696897
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 4.195263418319825,
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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    "year": 2024,
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    "evidence": "published_baseline_reconstruction",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
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      "population_million": 11.5,
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      "industry_activity": 1.4,
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      "cooling_service_multiplier": 3,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 1,
      "process_heat_intensity": 1.05,
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      "process_heatpump_cop": 2,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.23,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
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        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 1.0,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 1.0,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 1.0,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 1.0,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 0.13079270068055557,
        "electricity_twh": 0.13079270068055557,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 1.0
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 1.0,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 1.0,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 1.0,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.0
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.0,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.0,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.0,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.0,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.0,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 16.979173996301785,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.0,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.19857768902796144,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.0,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9500927311764706,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.0,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.723671826325788,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.0,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 4.270239922041176,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.0,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 10.907500262064746
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 9.906077028175782
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.851356543845635
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.01202789300282573
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.2540354759856185,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.643683706602105,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.23832818908540673,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.8129308892590965
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.067858449501171
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4352007020722253
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5672159540772927,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8007117502789219,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4203138075637786,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.251242342456567
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.414860960382903
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.8769314540943527
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0017077558507579528
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3515581933332659,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1668127415160627,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5887611551194444
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7981319172194439
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5652397621527777
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.010813266638888888
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3559538794666667,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.09263038345986112,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1712822715591638
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5117280750000002
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.763973900722222
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.9912685658333333
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6298661833333336
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.899573957931583
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 37.66851677133944,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7121233705145836,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5541827725869446,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.065978029275139,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.735766973509031,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 0.5244079272899781,
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2025,
    "scenario": "higher_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.04090909090909091,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 11.5,
      "services_activity": 1.5,
      "industry_activity": 1.4,
      "road_activity": 1.35,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.4,
      "households_electric_intensity": 1.0,
      "services_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 1.05,
      "space_heat_spf": 2.5,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.2,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 3,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 1,
      "process_heat_intensity": 1.05,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.05,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 2,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.23,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.35,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.5,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.5,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.075,
      "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1,
      "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.15,
      "residual_twh": 2.5,
      "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "district_heat_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.08
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
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      "services": 17.29740384073844,
      "industry": 16.623099562600604,
      "transport": 5.240968128104184,
      "unallocated": 1.2901792977671205,
      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 60.42321676942432,
    "change_from_2024_twh": 2.911216769424321,
    "annual_supply_accounting_before_storage_and_exports_twh": 64.99518993764383,
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        "change_twh": 0.17576752512529134,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
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          "replacement_fraction": 0.04090909090909091,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0134615384615384,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2901792977671205,
        "change_twh": 0.04839282808931511,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
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    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 10.532064504541463
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 9.56511022150131
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.84421893452872
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.01161389336840628
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.2692860887760395,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.681868391731501,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.23994069739217797,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7606680786914504
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.0082466380045108
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.43707716758646276
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5743609498457056,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.810798000544516,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4256083349036063,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.065962150852727
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.2765030861226965
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.899083287808683
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0016641201099706967
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3732002129168461,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1854964980326683,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5717544676718387
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7461918949543693
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5676431665933768
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.010500919527643248
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3604162587923879,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.09379163476776721,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.17165582305540866
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.607768718127306
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.018230692498031
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6171937602371156
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.926608504313012
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 36.613864155792236,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6921851611111027,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5106683720572593,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.924139501060381,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.547177274067165,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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  },
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    "year": 2026,
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    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.08181818181818182,
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      "population_million": 11.5,
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      "industry_electric_intensity": 1.05,
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      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
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      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
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      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 3,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 1,
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      "process_heatpump_cop": 2,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.23,
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        "sector": "services",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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        "sector": "transport",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0002992009115410157,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0587557530003788,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.07095998880734838,
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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          "heat_service_scale": 1.0038461538461538
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        "sector": "services",
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          "activity": 1.0384615384615385,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9936851873385368,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.59328346438281,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.08181818181818182
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.16728737169338803,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0384615384615385,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9936851873385368,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.44303407857678295,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.08181818181818182
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 1.037033997659623,
        "electricity_twh": 1.070119373096251,
        "change_twh": 0.03308537543662804,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0384615384615385,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9936851873385368
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.014813378251034808,
        "change_twh": 0.014813378251034808,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0384615384615385,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9936851873385368,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.047077060157907594,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.016363636363636365
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 4.396634709821216e-05,
        "change_twh": 4.396634709821216e-05,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0384615384615385,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9936851873385368,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.00013972547869837797,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.08181818181818182
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0384615384615385,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9936851873385368,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.020454545454545454
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0172045286580714,
        "change_twh": 0.0172045286580714,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0307692307692307,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9943898738695021,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.04817136723704545,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.08181818181818182
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.05563508603389996,
        "change_twh": 0.05563508603389996,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0307692307692307,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9943898738695021,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.1471198841361363,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.08181818181818182
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 0.13079270068055557,
        "electricity_twh": 0.13406075058302883,
        "change_twh": 0.003268049902473258,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0307692307692307,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9943898738695021
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.002914799381143247,
        "change_twh": 0.002914799381143247,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0307692307692307,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9943898738695021,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.009249377926136363,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.016363636363636365
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.00027880649078126224,
        "change_twh": 0.00027880649078126224,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0307692307692307,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9943898738695021,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0008847218159090908,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.08181818181818182
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0011040745285681927,
        "change_twh": 0.0011040745285681927,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0307692307692307,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9943898738695021,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.003503501009164714,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.020454545454545454
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.09735747712190104,
        "change_twh": 0.09735747712190104,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.09790695493018269,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5000111620038548,
        "change_twh": 0.5000111620038548,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.5028331849807878,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.04280933938078049,
        "change_twh": 0.04280933938078049,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.04305095186574129,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.04056429429858551,
        "change_twh": 0.04056429429858551,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.040793235928798154,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.06976061382131345,
        "change_twh": 0.06976061382131345,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.07015433714200839,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0034903241372108125,
        "change_twh": 0.0034903241372108125,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0014281836373419724,
        "change_twh": 0.0014281836373419724,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 2.0894140532082592,
        "change_twh": 1.386470202997148,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 16.979173996301785,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.08181818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0269230769230768,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.025701269912772683,
        "change_twh": 0.01613868850693935,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.19857768902796144,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.08181818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0269230769230768,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.14283742397496718,
        "change_twh": 0.07601213778566163,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9500927311764706,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.08181818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0269230769230768,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.27772443891753534,
        "change_twh": 0.2258856895430909,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.723671826325788,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.08181818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0269230769230768,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 0.40175259636547006,
        "change_twh": 0.3561881018578312,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 4.270239922041176,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.08181818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0269230769230768,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.3385721258564358,
        "change_twh": 0.09678565617863044,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 10.14976992931625
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 9.217914308721399
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.836153161195422
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.01119233039468244
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.284351991296147,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.719590596853762,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.24153367554305838,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7066050087168854
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.9465814213571375
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.43888146659347793
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5815291862891923,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8209170585643392,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.43092008386169145,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.8703733887068035
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.130447292864684
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.9201376394864225
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.001618056575320709
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3946781010236584,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.2040385583209336,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5540972267102123
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.692265021098886
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5698826298297484
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.010176624262976134
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.36484791586948684,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.09494489118129289,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1719709723462766
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4490513736217308
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.442077204000331
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.044518295341966
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6037517416331927
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.952486184079165
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 35.51772348855632,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6714626200233138,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4654421967955291,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.776721311729464,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
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      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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        "electricity_twh": 0.10640617901617735,
        "change_twh": 0.10640617901617735,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.10700672697368271,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0052900965293577185,
        "change_twh": 0.0052900965293577185,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0021646211085786966,
        "change_twh": 0.0021646211085786966,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 2.809539080385253,
        "change_twh": 2.106595230174142,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 16.979173996301785,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.12272727272727273,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0403846153846155,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.03408288562900969,
        "change_twh": 0.02452030422317636,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.19857768902796144,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.12272727272727273,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0403846153846155,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.1823027371606527,
        "change_twh": 0.11547745097134715,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9500927311764706,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.12272727272727273,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0403846153846155,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.395081413510268,
        "change_twh": 0.34324266413582355,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.723671826325788,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.12272727272727273,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0403846153846155,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5868262247052584,
        "change_twh": 0.5412617301976195,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 4.270239922041176,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.12272727272727273,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0403846153846155,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.386964953945751,
        "change_twh": 0.14517848426794555,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 9.760726233859323
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 8.864588915924852
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.827168981930126
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.01076332504699024
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.299233183545939,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.756850321968888,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.24310712353804786,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6507325629509197
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.8828524012626842
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4406131614089717
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5887206634077528,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8310689243383907,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.43624905443803397,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.664584127382237
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.976774282836043
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.940103084593403
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0015695906989297778
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4159918576537018,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.2224389223808592,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5357956687140906
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6363703424477563
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5719593493275111
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.00984049538491011
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3692488506979636,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0960901527004382,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.17222817301059595
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4149325085590385
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.266848614778684
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.0701270298653394
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5895360108598505
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.977199917583938
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 34.38009476963169,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6499557472512171,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.418504246801754,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.623723461282387,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.147741582211525,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    ],
    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 0.5244079272899781,
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2028,
    "scenario": "higher_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.16363636363636364,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 11.5,
      "services_activity": 1.5,
      "industry_activity": 1.4,
      "road_activity": 1.35,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.4,
      "households_electric_intensity": 1.0,
      "services_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 1.05,
      "space_heat_spf": 2.5,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.2,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
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      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 3,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 1,
      "process_heat_intensity": 1.05,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.05,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 2,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.23,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.35,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.5,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.5,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.075,
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      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1,
      "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.15,
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      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
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      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.08
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
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      "services": 19.21120822429889,
      "industry": 18.86249391399037,
      "transport": 8.563789550265835,
      "unallocated": 1.435357782035066,
      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 69.48967686125366,
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    "annual_supply_accounting_before_storage_and_exports_twh": 74.84095994713047,
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    "components": [
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        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle17!AA12; retirement allocation is a scenario assumption",
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        "sector": "services",
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_cooling",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.4026140753999283,
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 16.410249665284166,
        "change_twh": 1.0693259268561093,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.43597542027777775,
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.6229789550839385,
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        "source": "Tabelle20!AA7",
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9846153846153847,
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          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.16363636363636364
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.5990642845262948,
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        "source": "Tabelle20!AA8",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9846153846153847,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.6209944227924007,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.16363636363636364
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        "sector": "households",
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        "baseline_twh": 2.459562977975301,
        "electricity_twh": 2.2770173572940404,
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        "source": "Tabelle20!AA9",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9846153846153847,
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 2.69851002604205,
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        "source": "Tabelle20!AA10",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9846153846153847
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.04889716397746805,
        "change_twh": 0.04889716397746805,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0426121689684735,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9846153846153847,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.03272727272727273
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0006061498996695097,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0426121689684735,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA7",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0426121689684735,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 1.0076923076923077,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.2966614182423976,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.16363636363636364
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.1454357544796518,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0426121689684735,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 1.0076923076923077,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.33837683719110073,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.16363636363636364
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0051013922536796924,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0426121689684735,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 1.0076923076923077,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.014242932067818282,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.03272727272727273
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 2.2217104311183005,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0426121689684735,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 1.0076923076923077,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.16363636363636364
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0426121689684735,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 1.0076923076923077
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0769230769230769,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9873703746770736,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.18656692876562,
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0769230769230769,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9873703746770736,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0769230769230769,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9873703746770736
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.03053385798406557,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0769230769230769,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9873703746770736,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.03272727272727273
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 9.062498611896066e-05,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0769230769230769,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9873703746770736,
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          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0769230769230769,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9873703746770736,
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          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.04090909090909091
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.03524440728841867,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0615384615384615,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.988779747739004,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.16363636363636364
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.11397148219954714,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0615384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.988779747739004,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.16363636363636364
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0615384615384615,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.988779747739004
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.005971124149620221,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0615384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.988779747739004,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.03272727272727273
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0615384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.988779747739004,
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0615384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.988779747739004,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.007007002018329428,
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.20129564492591379,
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "services",
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        "sector": "services",
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      {
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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      {
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5168560301629977
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.578526905795739
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.573874522552283
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.000742625181224
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        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6276645427948121,
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        "sector": "transport",
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 0.5244079272899781,
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      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
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      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
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          "activity": 1.0769230769230769,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9859746846737549,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.023123444815340906,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.04090909090909091
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0007223140047242265,
        "change_twh": 0.0007223140047242265,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0769230769230769,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9859746846737549,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.002211804539772727,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.20454545454545453
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0028603655962578496,
        "change_twh": 0.0028603655962578496,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.0769230769230769,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9859746846737549,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.008758752522911785,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.05113636363636363
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.25575336565948015,
        "change_twh": 0.25575336565948015,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.25719681718449516,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.3135050468663623,
        "change_twh": 1.3135050468663623,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 1.3209183642165572,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.11245805614482782,
        "change_twh": 0.11245805614482782,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.1130927604124487,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.1065604317116299,
        "change_twh": 0.1065604317116299,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.10716185025900185,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.18325774560625524,
        "change_twh": 0.18325774560625524,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.18429203765431518,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.008998861960734537,
        "change_twh": 0.008998861960734537,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0036821873561836225,
        "change_twh": 0.0036821873561836225,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 4.303568986096077,
        "change_twh": 3.600625135884966,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 16.979173996301785,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.20454545454545453,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0673076923076923,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.051470659987018344,
        "change_twh": 0.04190807858118501,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.19857768902796144,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.20454545454545453,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0673076923076923,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.264151852117733,
        "change_twh": 0.19732656592842746,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9500927311764706,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.20454545454545453,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0673076923076923,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.6386236223381072,
        "change_twh": 0.5867848729636628,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.723671826325788,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.20454545454545453,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0673076923076923,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 0.9709326362065803,
        "change_twh": 0.9253681416989414,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 4.270239922041176,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.20454545454545453,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0673076923076923,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.4837506101243814,
        "change_twh": 0.241964140446576,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 8.962830272131217
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 8.139948194637094
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.806484437941094
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.009883471091044913
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.3284414372345794,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.829982332177733,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2461954290603542,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5335230785068625
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7491613575470735
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.44385698772819954
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6031733396700951,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8514710791491806,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4469586604454912,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.222836392650952
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.6468994213755925
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.9768015569584207
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0014655537294122412
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4581269764834828,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.2588145618156894,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.49728454753645873
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5187537579375965
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5756293469696824
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.009133194948671566
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.37795855360904995,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.09835669105558753,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.17257054277490202
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3410843481370192
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.887577236800931
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.1192905159512003
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5587669461580488
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.02310722722492
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 31.980373176716284,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.604589006654099,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3194930226180681,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.300988777039754,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.718630833060005,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      }
    ],
    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 0.5244079272899781,
      "feasible_lower_twh": 0,
      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
    },
    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2030,
    "scenario": "higher_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.24545454545454545,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 11.5,
      "services_activity": 1.5,
      "industry_activity": 1.4,
      "road_activity": 1.35,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.4,
      "households_electric_intensity": 1.0,
      "services_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 1.05,
      "space_heat_spf": 2.5,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.2,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 3,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 1,
      "process_heat_intensity": 1.05,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.05,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 2,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.23,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.35,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.5,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.5,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.075,
      "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1,
      "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.15,
      "residual_twh": 2.5,
      "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "district_heat_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.08
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
      "households": 22.39810751635669,
      "services": 20.53617080719149,
      "industry": 20.433616484058014,
      "transport": 10.910562858047841,
      "unallocated": 1.5321434382136965,
      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 75.81060110386773,
    "change_from_2024_twh": 18.298601103867725,
    "annual_supply_accounting_before_storage_and_exports_twh": 81.71663875872969,
    "effective_loss_fraction": 0.07227460336810575,
    "components": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 10.833593976619063,
        "electricity_twh": 11.526058382220354,
        "change_twh": 0.6924644056012905,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.19067475662132183,
        "electricity_twh": 0.29649113283072837,
        "change_twh": 0.10581637620940654,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "legacy_heating_auxiliaries",
        "baseline_twh": 0.5934028299616816,
        "electricity_twh": 0.6313321024467278,
        "change_twh": 0.037929272485046184,
        "source": "Tabelle17!AA12; retirement allocation is a scenario assumption",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 14.646369183265765,
        "electricity_twh": 16.524831029699406,
        "change_twh": 1.8784618464336411,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.9959738602629744,
        "electricity_twh": 1.6236141923221863,
        "change_twh": 0.6276403320592119,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 15.340923738428057,
        "electricity_twh": 16.950359110512846,
        "change_twh": 1.6094353720847892,
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        "calculation_details": {}
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          "activity": 1.0923076923076922,
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 8.554197400800478
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.768832118323501
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.794803589386128
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        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.009432864413463847
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.3427684986734274,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.865854617271452,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.472167807059809
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.679178537333183
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.44536824386333557
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6104345388138769,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8617213681859187,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.987094061971124
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.47085897439814
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        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.993551735148125
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        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.001410033540529214
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4789483386832205,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "services",
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        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.477087457313999
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4570699456680898
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5772250200453278
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 30.71828030272551,
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5807291388290781,
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      {
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 0.5244079272899781,
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      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
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      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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    "year": 2031,
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          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.16476971055267658,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.05727272727272728
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.00016552869328706195,
        "change_twh": 0.00016552869328706195,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1346153846153846,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9778981556848787,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0004890391754443228,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.2863636363636364
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1346153846153846,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9778981556848787,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.0715909090909091
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.06383402538660127,
        "change_twh": 0.06383402538660127,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1076923076923078,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.980364558543257,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.16859978532965908,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.2863636363636364
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.2064230624887007,
        "change_twh": 0.2064230624887007,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1076923076923078,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.980364558543257,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.5149195944764772,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.2863636363636364
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 0.13079270068055557,
        "electricity_twh": 0.1420333236148134,
        "change_twh": 0.011240622934257843,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1076923076923078,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.980364558543257
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.010814790767630662,
        "change_twh": 0.010814790767630662,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1076923076923078,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.980364558543257,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.03237282274147727,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.05727272727272728
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.001034456738931397,
        "change_twh": 0.001034456738931397,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1076923076923078,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.980364558543257,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0030965263556818183,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.2863636363636364
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.004096451747444864,
        "change_twh": 0.004096451747444864,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1076923076923078,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.980364558543257,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0122622535320765,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.0715909090909091
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.36968783644126924,
        "change_twh": 0.36968783644126924,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.3717743249999424,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.8986527808875147,
        "change_twh": 1.8986527808875147,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 1.909368625212688,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.16255651361368945,
        "change_twh": 0.16255651361368945,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.1634739695653316,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.15403158174727946,
        "change_twh": 0.15403158174727946,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.1549009236658121,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.26489645330604766,
        "change_twh": 0.26489645330604766,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.26639150768591763,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.012853254921555361,
        "change_twh": 0.012853254921555361,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0052593420106305175,
        "change_twh": 0.0052593420106305175,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 5.869305360282687,
        "change_twh": 5.166361510071576,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 16.979173996301785,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.2863636363636364,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0942307692307693,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.06969115824573989,
        "change_twh": 0.06012857683990656,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.19857768902796144,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.2863636363636364,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0942307692307693,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.34989228518909254,
        "change_twh": 0.283066998999787,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9500927311764706,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.2863636363636364,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0942307692307693,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 0.8939368440224457,
        "change_twh": 0.8420980946480012,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.723671826325788,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.2863636363636364,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0942307692307693,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 1.3736512541368964,
        "change_twh": 1.3280867596292576,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 4.270239922041176,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.2863636363636364,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.0942307692307693,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.5805362663030116,
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        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 8.13925419911891
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.391985066348513
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.7822433672367115
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.008975299223258562
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.356910849841961,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.901264422358038,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.24920561395909704,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4089666942834305
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6070903204867473
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.44680514506975455
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6177189786327327,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8720044649768856,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.45773715292597805,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.741583517566427
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.287524119558774
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.0092473086304024
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.001352212818392399
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4996055694061896,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.29462341633716,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.45627099597514315
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3934945157819798
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5786627392448376
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.008379934539108113
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.38654536752564744,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1005912498332153,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.17268656097895335
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.2596897452534617
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.469548635693162
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.165686394757215
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5248536328379937
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.064273796067128
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 29.414699377046038,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5560849393197492,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.2136346995062022,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.955935448332483,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.2598450266126076,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      }
    ],
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      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2032,
    "scenario": "higher_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.32727272727272727,
    "parameters_2050": {
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      "services_activity": 1.5,
      "industry_activity": 1.4,
      "road_activity": 1.35,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.4,
      "households_electric_intensity": 1.0,
      "services_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 1.05,
      "space_heat_spf": 2.5,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.2,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
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          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.19857768902796144,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.32727272727272727,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1076923076923078,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.3942217460176269,
        "change_twh": 0.32739645982832133,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9500927311764706,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.32727272727272727,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1076923076923078,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 1.0260075846858019,
        "change_twh": 0.9741688353113575,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.723671826325788,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.32727272727272727,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1076923076923078,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 1.581990140512927,
        "change_twh": 1.5364256460052883,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 4.270239922041176,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.32727272727272727,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1076923076923078,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.6289290943923267,
        "change_twh": 0.3871426247145213,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.7181103645567255
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.009506664800937
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.768813529577227
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.008510896485765085
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.37086849074018,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.936211747437487,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2506814111746321,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3439106237932454
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5328863087113997
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.44816725366315735
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6250266591266622,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8823203695220813,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4631522315936075,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.486412830800311
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.096975559084673
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.0238968528710872
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.001292117015123585
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.52009866865239,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3123152992553848,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.43484139999941585
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3280465150740268
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5799437020338297
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.007986355694385947
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3907926911110127,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.10169653688045856,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.17266082219295423
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.2161378271138463
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.2458735175589934
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.1878356201807807
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5067075912918344
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.083061603573428
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 28.069630399677838,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5306564081261121,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1581378758522016,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.7750392923046077,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.019323976902953,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    ],
    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 0.5244079272899781,
      "feasible_lower_twh": 0,
      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
    },
    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2033,
    "scenario": "higher_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.3681818181818182,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 11.5,
      "services_activity": 1.5,
      "industry_activity": 1.4,
      "road_activity": 1.35,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.4,
      "households_electric_intensity": 1.0,
      "services_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 1.05,
      "space_heat_spf": 2.5,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.2,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 3,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 1,
      "process_heat_intensity": 1.05,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.05,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 2,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.23,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.35,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.5,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.5,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.075,
      "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1,
      "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.15,
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      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
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      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.08
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
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      "services": 22.595900185163092,
      "industry": 22.90869044490831,
      "transport": 14.628061359232222,
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      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "annual_supply_accounting_before_storage_and_exports_twh": 92.49790245680427,
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    "components": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle17!AA12; retirement allocation is a scenario assumption",
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        "sector": "services",
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.9772143793977983,
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 17.767331380606645,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_cooling",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.839962111493754,
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "electricity_twh": 3.6370415824477473,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.4445375098909896,
        "change_twh": 1.4445375098909896,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA7",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9653846153846154,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 4.015943278305657,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.3681818181818182
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.389085173379,
        "change_twh": 1.389085173379,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.095877380179065,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9653846153846154,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 3.6472374512829018,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.3681818181818182
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "baseline_twh": 2.459562977975301,
        "electricity_twh": 2.0272551875085005,
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        "source": "Tabelle20!AA9",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9653846153846154,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.3681818181818182
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 2.7809742361446275,
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        "source": "Tabelle20!AA10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.095877380179065,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9653846153846154
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.11338069595501196,
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        "source": "Tabelle20!AA11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.095877380179065,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9653846153846154,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.3572362545922696,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.07363636363636365
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.001405515001018437,
        "change_twh": 0.001405515001018437,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.095877380179065,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9653846153846154,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0044284515146767464,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.3681818181818182
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.2875107733592172,
        "change_twh": 0.2875107733592172,
        "source": "Tabelle22!AA7",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 1.0173076923076922,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.6674881910453947,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.3681818181818182
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "water_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.3472300194915483,
        "change_twh": 0.3472300194915483,
        "source": "Tabelle22!AA8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.095877380179065,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 1.0173076923076922,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.7613478836799767,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.3681818181818182
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.012179649619289919,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.095877380179065,
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          "heat_service_scale": 1.0173076923076922,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.032046597152591144,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.07363636363636365
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "baseline_twh": 2.3218838832072275,
        "electricity_twh": 2.068692271640705,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.095877380179065,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 1.0173076923076922,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.3681818181818182
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.5232860641152779,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.095877380179065,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 1.0173076923076922
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.0522057327213294,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1730769230769231,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9715833430234155,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 2.6697755897226454,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.3681818181818182
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.8319536607402832,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1730769230769231,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9715833430234155,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.9936533535955236,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.3681818181818182
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1730769230769231,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9715833430234155
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.07366990191266187,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1730769230769231,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9715833430234155,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.2118467707105842,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.07363636363636365
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.00021865346467859692,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1730769230769231,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9715833430234155,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0006287646541427009,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.3681818181818182
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1730769230769231,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9715833430234155,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.09204545454545456
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.08388931685692709,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1384615384615384,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9747544324127592,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.21677115256670454,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.3681818181818182
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.27127679307102953,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1384615384615384,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9747544324127592,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.6620394786126135,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.3681818181818182
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.14514333213776778,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1384615384615384,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9747544324127592
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.014212567732530447,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1384615384615384,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9747544324127592,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.04162220066761364,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.07363636363636365
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.001359461018186306,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1384615384615384,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9747544324127592,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.00398124817159091,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.3681818181818182
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.005383469655082202,
        "change_twh": 0.005383469655082202,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1384615384615384,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9747544324127592,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.015765754541241215,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.09204545454545456
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.4903700205113148,
        "change_twh": 0.4903700205113148,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 2.518455603165582,
        "change_twh": 2.518455603165582,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 2.5326695650100257,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.2156220277148782,
        "change_twh": 0.2156220277148782,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.2168389811806882,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.20431418741796561,
        "change_twh": 0.20431418741796561,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.2054673203382312,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.3513701735266516,
        "change_twh": 0.3513701735266516,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.35335327866199956,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.016853275411820183,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
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        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
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          "replacement_fraction": 0.3681818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1211538461538462,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
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        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
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          "replacement_fraction": 0.3681818181818182,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1211538461538462,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.1610210785632826,
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        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
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        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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    ],
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.3846414213680833,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4565561037107746
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6323575802956654,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8926690818215055,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.899293995203017
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      {
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0012297715828445616
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      {
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "sector": "industry",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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      {
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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      {
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      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
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      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 2.8414598973027427,
        "change_twh": 2.8414598973027427,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 2.857496869529695,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.24327661125207647,
        "change_twh": 0.24327661125207647,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.2446496449738686,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.2305184849271993,
        "change_twh": 0.2305184849271993,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.23181951280518762,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.3964351231482257,
        "change_twh": 0.3964351231482257,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.3986725712521921,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.018907895980494097,
        "change_twh": 0.018907895980494097,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.007736802255129551,
        "change_twh": 0.007736802255129551,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 8.352359549954693,
        "change_twh": 7.6494156997435825,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 16.979173996301785,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.40909090909090906,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1346153846153846,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0985832629476588,
        "change_twh": 0.08902068154182546,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.19857768902796144,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.40909090909090906,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1346153846153846,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.4857991562604049,
        "change_twh": 0.4189738700710993,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9500927311764706,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.40909090909090906,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1346153846153846,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2989773256548884,
        "change_twh": 1.247138576280444,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.723671826325788,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.40909090909090906,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1346153846153846,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 2.0126270680867338,
        "change_twh": 1.9670625735790948,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 4.270239922041176,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.40909090909090906,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1346153846153846,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.7257147505709571,
        "change_twh": 0.48392828089315176,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.8576595866714065
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.228054317343257
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.739384040065609
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.007562062230257702
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.398229641725673,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.00471895757498,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2535744151380297,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.2081971441335324
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3780893071885052
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.45066534227371896
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6397117421397426,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9030506018751588,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.47403405378363866,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.947523315637585
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.694560130140983
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.0500921554910123
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0011652019736771166
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5605924727144858,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3472739764068153,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3901677500554469
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1916089883716372
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5820401482427351
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.007165873425173539
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.39919517153587647,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.10388312629180388,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1724441167390479
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.123275355889423
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.768947928317032
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.2300149205700306
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.46801615511867944
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.117010866525905
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 25.25502828987531,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.47744635068591407,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0420089043480651,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.3965079969003775,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.516025584511737,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 0.5244079272899781,
      "feasible_lower_twh": 0,
      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2035,
    "scenario": "higher_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.45,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 11.5,
      "services_activity": 1.5,
      "industry_activity": 1.4,
      "road_activity": 1.35,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.4,
      "households_electric_intensity": 1.0,
      "services_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 1.05,
      "space_heat_spf": 2.5,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.2,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 3,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 1,
      "process_heat_intensity": 1.05,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.05,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 2,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.23,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.35,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.5,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.5,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.075,
      "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1,
      "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.15,
      "residual_twh": 2.5,
      "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "district_heat_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.08
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
      "households": 24.910027425214032,
      "services": 24.01645361373096,
      "industry": 24.638308507162712,
      "transport": 17.23795271969605,
      "unallocated": 1.7741075786602725,
      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 92.57684984446402,
    "change_from_2024_twh": 35.06484984446402,
    "annual_supply_accounting_before_storage_and_exports_twh": 99.99724031177882,
    "effective_loss_fraction": 0.07420595252607931,
    "components": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
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        "electricity_twh": 12.103112053554764,
        "change_twh": 1.2695180769357002,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_cooling",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "legacy_heating_auxiliaries",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.6629398295175997,
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        "source": "Tabelle17!AA12; retirement allocation is a scenario assumption",
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 18.12000696330583,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.9959738602629744,
        "electricity_twh": 2.227681178576357,
        "change_twh": 1.2317073183133824,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 15.340923738428057,
        "electricity_twh": 18.316518295503034,
        "change_twh": 2.9755945570749773,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.43597542027777775,
        "electricity_twh": 0.9410877711084812,
        "change_twh": 0.5051123508307034,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 3.309249636231664,
        "electricity_twh": 3.7055763382276927,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.785530039742131,
        "change_twh": 1.785530039742131,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA7",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9576923076923077,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 4.908375117929135,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.45
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.716987816408991,
        "change_twh": 1.716987816408991,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1171834646633019,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9576923076923077,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 4.457734662679102,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.45
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_resistance",
        "baseline_twh": 2.459562977975301,
        "electricity_twh": 1.9210174313100514,
        "change_twh": -0.5385455466652498,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1171834646633019,
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9576923076923077,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1171834646633019,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1171834646633019,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1171834646633019,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA7",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1171834646633019,
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          "heat_service_scale": 1.021153846153846,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1171834646633019,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 1.021153846153846,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1171834646633019,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 1.021153846153846,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1171834646633019,
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          "heat_service_scale": 1.021153846153846
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        "sector": "services",
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          "activity": 1.2115384615384615,
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          "activity": 1.2115384615384615,
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2115384615384615,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2115384615384615,
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2115384615384615,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.169230769230769,
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.169230769230769,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9691443062822611
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.169230769230769,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.169230769230769,
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.169230769230769,
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "households",
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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      {
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.482854666125748
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.0616550648019176
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        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0010984336397430396
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5805931775303803,
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.36693616904625515
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1206575559667222
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 23.78549515744097,
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        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.44966482443935296,
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        "sector": "transport",
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        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.1988728575240226,
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        "sector": "transport",
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 0.5244079272899781,
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      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
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      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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      "population_million": 11.5,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1846153846153846,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9663392432170121
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.01991730117388603,
        "change_twh": 0.01991730117388603,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1846153846153846,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9663392432170121,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.05652397621527777,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0019051303777711944,
        "change_twh": 0.0019051303777711944,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1846153846153846,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9663392432170121,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.005406633319444444,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.5
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.007544321933842289,
        "change_twh": 0.007544321933842289,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1846153846153846,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9663392432170121,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.021410283944895477,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.125
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.6968616149939495,
        "change_twh": 0.6968616149939495,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.7007946461714423,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 3.578960714365354,
        "change_twh": 3.578960714365354,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 3.59916008217347,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.306419047202322,
        "change_twh": 0.306419047202322,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.30814845177863065,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.2903495496355996,
        "change_twh": 0.2903495496355996,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.29198825925386107,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.4993298455096662,
        "change_twh": 0.4993298455096662,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.5021480231908393,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.02355462364946058,
        "change_twh": 0.02355462364946058,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.009638167332731023,
        "change_twh": 0.009638167332731023,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 10.269229980090183,
        "change_twh": 9.566286129879071,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 16.979173996301785,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.5,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1615384615384616,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.12088146475193466,
        "change_twh": 0.11131888334610132,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.19857768902796144,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.5,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1615384615384616,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5905946947008931,
        "change_twh": 0.5237694085115876,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9500927311764706,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.5,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1615384615384616,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 1.611931142041289,
        "change_twh": 1.5600923926668444,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.723671826325788,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.5,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1615384615384616,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 2.5064864111495044,
        "change_twh": 2.4609219166418654,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 4.270239922041176,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.5,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1615384615384616,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.8225004067495876,
        "change_twh": 0.5807139370717822,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.867049028211522
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.328392226006275
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.697104086361995
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.006469698488029426
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.424851951629908,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.071376247683931,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2563892984778637,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0459373934868768
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.193013197350825
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4519459860266356
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6544897878531182,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9239120652451516,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.48498476244669947,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.29323133582995
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.2059679785026276
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.066012282527437
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.001011108246857617
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.600429750869507,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3816658686448853,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3369893207590364
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0291970659918834
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5823474788437711
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.006189191233389456
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4074747629662511,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.10603773612562761,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1715645091996356
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0076785761942308
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.17526286325597
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.262748312950207
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4198523989271204
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.1353366615716185
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 21.876715509508678,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4135793421065467,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9026215333101102,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.9421641631559465,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.9119262038456295,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    ],
    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 0.5244079272899781,
      "feasible_lower_twh": 0,
      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
    },
    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2037,
    "scenario": "higher_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.55,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 11.5,
      "services_activity": 1.5,
      "industry_activity": 1.4,
      "road_activity": 1.35,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.4,
      "households_electric_intensity": 1.0,
      "services_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 1.05,
      "space_heat_spf": 2.5,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.2,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 3,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 1,
      "process_heat_intensity": 1.05,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.05,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 2,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.23,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.35,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.5,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.5,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.075,
      "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1,
      "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.15,
      "residual_twh": 2.5,
      "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "district_heat_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.08
    },
    "sector_electricity_twh": {
      "households": 26.06464718573462,
      "services": 25.57602604814993,
      "industry": 26.649708524320896,
      "transport": 20.4710531178461,
      "unallocated": 1.8708932348389027,
      "explicit_additions": 0.0
    },
    "electricity_demand_twh": 100.63232811089046,
    "change_from_2024_twh": 43.120328110890455,
    "annual_supply_accounting_before_storage_and_exports_twh": 108.78917653391564,
    "effective_loss_fraction": 0.07497849218926873,
    "components": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 10.833593976619063,
        "electricity_twh": 12.333933522088527,
        "change_twh": 1.5003395454694637,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.19067475662132183,
        "electricity_twh": 0.4341624353992507,
        "change_twh": 0.24348767877792887,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "legacy_heating_auxiliaries",
        "baseline_twh": 0.5934028299616816,
        "electricity_twh": 0.6755829203459484,
        "change_twh": 0.08218009038426677,
        "source": "Tabelle17!AA12; retirement allocation is a scenario assumption",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 14.646369183265765,
        "electricity_twh": 18.76566051605926,
        "change_twh": 4.119291332793495,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.9959738602629744,
        "electricity_twh": 2.4899346506574362,
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "transport",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "activity": 1.1384895491475386,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.437886041176553,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.104011172727703,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2577674449139444,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9520213241326233
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0858910016241592
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4519938312576735
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6619136717224166,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.934392008561491,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.911403263763334
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        "sector": "services",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.9208380899446142
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.0692140762389943
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0009211830873801188
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6201021927318646,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.30633740832773815
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9355832438378875
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5816625233104779
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.005626234083058676
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.411568475308505,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1708125944098357
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.822592388433607
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.27454169901775
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.136960522620668
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 19.917228242845727,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.37653523215958606,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.821774141005347,
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.6786358829792296,
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 0.5244079272899781,
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
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      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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    "year": 2038,
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    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
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      "population_million": 11.5,
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      "cooling_service_multiplier": 3,
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        "electricity_twh": 0.1898896854344242,
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2692307692307692,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9557963113697574,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.15
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.14393275107472822,
        "change_twh": 0.14393275107472822,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2153846153846153,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9607291170865142,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.3532566930716666,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.6
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.4654420442597619,
        "change_twh": 0.4654420442597619,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2153846153846153,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9607291170865142,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.0788791503316664,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.6
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 0.13079270068055557,
        "electricity_twh": 0.15272080172075506,
        "change_twh": 0.021928101040199488,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2153846153846153,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9607291170865142
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.024385154751800798,
        "change_twh": 0.024385154751800798,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2153846153846153,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9607291170865142,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.06782877145833333,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.12
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0023324896620641484,
        "change_twh": 0.0023324896620641484,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2153846153846153,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9607291170865142,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.006487959983333333,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.6
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.009236665964330312,
        "change_twh": 0.009236665964330312,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2153846153846153,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9607291170865142,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.02569234073387457,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.15
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.8611796921238578,
        "change_twh": 0.8611796921238578,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.8660401213764809,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 4.422869935442344,
        "change_twh": 4.422869935442344,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 4.447832259346842,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.37867182673402466,
        "change_twh": 0.37867182673402466,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.38080902021482216,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.3588131852629843,
        "change_twh": 0.3588131852629843,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.36083829816082563,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.6170704676107054,
        "change_twh": 0.6170704676107054,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.6205531639389341,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.028799515987314037,
        "change_twh": 0.028799515987314037,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.011784291624364448,
        "change_twh": 0.011784291624364448,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 12.44162584154017,
        "change_twh": 11.738681991329058,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 16.979173996301785,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.6,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1884615384615385,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.14614707156748097,
        "change_twh": 0.13658449016164764,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.19857768902796144,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.6,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1884615384615385,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.7092569143581379,
        "change_twh": 0.6424316281688323,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9500927311764706,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.6,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1884615384615385,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 1.9668308693210863,
        "change_twh": 1.9149921199466418,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.723671826325788,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.6,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1884615384615385,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 3.0666702041060696,
        "change_twh": 3.0211057095984306,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 4.270239922041176,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.6,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.1884615384615385,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.9192860629282178,
        "change_twh": 0.6774995932504124,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.7437402872556635
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.308215040860328
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.641747866174813
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.005231006118491187
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.4507354204528835,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.13618361776434,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2591260611941341,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8557621518845828
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9760962246393364
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4519434476679172
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.669360796266789,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9449047596320593,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.49600435758278977,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.518668500990002
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.627563636507149
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.0712709270614966
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0008286892694593988
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6396105031174537,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4154909759695948,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.27498805411622435
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8398393689205543
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5808046235630945
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.005050467623096995
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4156314654021367,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.10816036638192972,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.16999886723352117
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8679269190265386
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.457522525707075
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.2854111547945446
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.36162443824396456
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.137021092926228
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 17.907033357452132,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.33853249459847135,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7388345795836398,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.4082880169938736,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.2020799920219853,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      }
    ],
    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 0.5244079272899781,
      "feasible_lower_twh": 0,
      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
    },
    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2039,
    "scenario": "higher_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.6499999999999999,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 11.5,
      "services_activity": 1.5,
      "industry_activity": 1.4,
      "road_activity": 1.35,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.4,
      "households_electric_intensity": 1.0,
      "services_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 1.05,
      "space_heat_spf": 2.5,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.2,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 3,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 1,
      "process_heat_intensity": 1.05,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.05,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 2,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.23,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.35,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.5,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.5,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.075,
      "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1,
      "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.15,
      "residual_twh": 2.5,
      "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "district_heat_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.08
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          "activity_multiplier": 1.2019230769230769,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 3.3552926951976407,
        "change_twh": 3.3097282006900017,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 4.270239922041176,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.6499999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.2019230769230769,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 1.967678891017533,
        "change_twh": 0.7258924213397275,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.172222705748643
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.7891687837581918
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.612715317103052
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.00460078359688302
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.4634000894589,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.167893582793843,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.26046514731843307,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7571487344950556
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8636161573674636
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.45179430030989015
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6768311614862352,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9554503184568566,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.501539987578221,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.1151591347319414
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.326243254245672
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.0721933161198507
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0007336579012443094
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6589546820262742,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4321909852894397,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.24294888048835864
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7419887206557021
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5797752431707099
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.004462031846865318
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4196637332471459,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.10920968916851015,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.16912388204481543
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7944175759807695
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.079991255166513
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.29535137033639
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.33099654285108493
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.135509719587503
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 15.846130853327894,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2995711294232023,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6538028490449889,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.1311205651998786,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.833555818182886,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 0.5244079272899781,
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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  },
  {
    "year": 2040,
    "scenario": "higher_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.7,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 11.5,
      "services_activity": 1.5,
      "industry_activity": 1.4,
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      "households_electric_intensity": 1.0,
      "services_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 1.05,
      "space_heat_spf": 2.5,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.2,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
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      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
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      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 3,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 1,
      "process_heat_intensity": 1.05,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
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      "process_heatpump_share": 0.05,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 2,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.23,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.35,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.5,
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      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1,
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
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      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 113.20762039430356,
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 2.7420230073007663,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9384615384615385,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9384615384615385,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9384615384615385
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.22381095331696507,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9384615384615385,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.13999999999999999
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.002774455118921204,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
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          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.00841952510197801,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.5915471336079143,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 1.0307692307692309,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.714418177562391,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 1.0307692307692309,
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          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.025059362946507468,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 1.0307692307692309,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.7316915798852017,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 1.0307692307692309,
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 1.0307692307692309
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 2.180669243269521,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3076923076923077,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9494814987082942,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 5.075869639719596,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.7
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.7242025046847995,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3076923076923077,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9494814987082942,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 3.7904026722680317,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.7
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 1.037033997659623,
        "electricity_twh": 1.287612161789101,
        "change_twh": 0.250578164129478,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3076923076923077,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9494814987082942
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.15267897166852948,
        "change_twh": 0.15267897166852948,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3076923076923077,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9494814987082942,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.4027704035732093,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.13999999999999999
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0004531536661806189,
        "change_twh": 0.0004531536661806189,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3076923076923077,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9494814987082942,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.001195429095530567,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.7
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3076923076923077,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9494814987082942,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.175
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.17120962162491515,
        "change_twh": 0.17120962162491515,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2461538461538462,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9551189909560162,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.41213280858361107,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.7
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5536485316303562,
        "change_twh": 0.5536485316303562,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2461538461538462,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9551189909560162,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.2586923420536107,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.7
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 0.13079270068055557,
        "electricity_twh": 0.1556727688641905,
        "change_twh": 0.024880068183634946,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2461538461538462,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9551189909560162
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.029006415059441334,
        "change_twh": 0.029006415059441334,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2461538461538462,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9551189909560162,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.07913356670138887,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.13999999999999999
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0027745226121516572,
        "change_twh": 0.0027745226121516572,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2461538461538462,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9551189909560162,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.007569286647222221,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.7
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.010987117754788675,
        "change_twh": 0.010987117754788675,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2461538461538462,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9551189909560162,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.029974397522853666,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.175
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.0340035501222595,
        "change_twh": 1.0340035501222595,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 1.0398393833964232,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 5.31046337576508,
        "change_twh": 5.31046337576508,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 5.340435206002851,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.4546647079062206,
        "change_twh": 0.4546647079062206,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.4572307991258042,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.43082078082635655,
        "change_twh": 0.43082078082635655,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.4332522988299943,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.7409058295505014,
        "change_twh": 0.7409058295505014,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.7450874427496064,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.03422239752782128,
        "change_twh": 0.03422239752782128,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.014003246191026945,
        "change_twh": 0.014003246191026945,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 14.70166294223834,
        "change_twh": 13.998719092027228,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 16.979173996301785,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.7,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.2153846153846155,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.1724304520394541,
        "change_twh": 0.16286787063362076,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.19857768902796144,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.7,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.2153846153846155,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.8326751894883904,
        "change_twh": 0.7658499032990849,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9500927311764706,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.7,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.2153846153846155,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 2.33611739009216,
        "change_twh": 2.284278640717716,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.723671826325788,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.7,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.2153846153846155,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 3.6496022493647398,
        "change_twh": 3.6040377548571008,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 4.270239922041176,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.7,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.2153846153846155,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 2.016071719106848,
        "change_twh": 0.7742852494290426,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.59430841646999
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.2643131039294846
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.582795710775953
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.003963507312744577
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.4758800481946013,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.1991410678162095,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2617847032868411,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.656169929716342
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.748438090779648
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.45154585423611565
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6843247673807551,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9660286850358822,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5070928391919097,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.701007252211138
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.0169755792156234
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.0719917245389654
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0006361200908837038
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6781347294583264,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4487492983809447,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.21022750980800475
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6420545784591498
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5785758457024135
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0038610667477245535
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.42366527884353306,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.11025101706071021,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.168188193217842
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7184697887146156
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.689936556902063
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.3043570356990895
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.29935266212343203
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.132417749703699
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 13.734520730473,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.25965113663377903,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5666789493893938,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.8471335275972436,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.455964265725601,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      }
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      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.014736300565427587,
        "change_twh": 0.014736300565427587,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 15.464527301022725,
        "change_twh": 14.761583450811614,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 16.979173996301785,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.73,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.228846153846154,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.1813083976361954,
        "change_twh": 0.17174581623036209,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.19857768902796144,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.73,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.228846153846154,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.8744598518040946,
        "change_twh": 0.807634565614789,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9500927311764706,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.73,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.228846153846154,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 2.4604902620303144,
        "change_twh": 2.40865151265587,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.723671826325788,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.73,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.228846153846154,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 3.8457693435999043,
        "change_twh": 3.8002048490922653,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 4.270239922041176,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.73,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.228846153846154,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 2.0644645471961636,
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        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
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    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.2509420136339733
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.952471347921372
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.573422154793997
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0035848711216054934
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        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.4881752966599877,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.229926072831441,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2630847290993583,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5970397629248029
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6809932611147576
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4533208572026427
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6918416139503487,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9766398593691369,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5126629124238558,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.458452535901545
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.8358479872702396
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.0851268764246575
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0005789955022485497
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6971506454136098,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4651659152441094,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1909780895941486
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5832650394864541
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5799241671730695
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0035075293045584593
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4276361021912979,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.11128435005852987,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.16822123115827342
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6755215941038657
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.469362058382545
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.328010713131091
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.28145816385493205
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.1531379859455555
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 12.497979227998451,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.23627431752861755,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.515659911066203,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6808330565208458,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.234849761422141,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 0.5244079272899781,
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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  },
  {
    "year": 2042,
    "scenario": "higher_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.76,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 11.5,
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      "industry_activity": 1.4,
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      "households_electric_intensity": 1.0,
      "services_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
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      "space_heat_spf": 2.5,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.2,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
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      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
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      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 3,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 1,
      "process_heat_intensity": 1.05,
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      "process_heatpump_share": 0.05,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 2,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.23,
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      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.5,
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      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1,
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      "transport": 27.913316333506145,
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 3.1264152092366895,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.76
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 3.0063996145763072,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9307692307692308,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 7.528618541413594,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9307692307692308,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9307692307692308
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.2453900503382154,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9307692307692308,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0030419587209791245,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
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          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.009141198682147555,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.76
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.6563823783962771,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 1.0346153846153847,
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          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.7927204375040561,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1917547603581304,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 1.0346153846153847,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.5715724216208902,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.76
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.02780594024960052,
        "change_twh": 0.02780594024960052,
        "source": "Tabelle22!AA9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1917547603581304,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 1.0346153846153847,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.06615050671497825,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.15200000000000002
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "water_resistance",
        "baseline_twh": 2.3218838832072275,
        "electricity_twh": 1.6760983810021695,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1917547603581304,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 1.0346153846153847,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.76
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "baseline_twh": 0.46938032113684663,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5787496017071089,
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        "source": "Tabelle22!AA12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.1917547603581304,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 1.0346153846153847
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 2.4214485390530953,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3461538461538463,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.943166686046831,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 5.510944180266991,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.76
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.9145808787310326,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3461538461538463,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.943166686046831,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 4.1152943298910065,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.76
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.3166675831218588,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3461538461538463,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.943166686046831
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.16953706942579913,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3461538461538463,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.943166686046831,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.43729358102234167,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.15200000000000002
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0005031887739630001,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3461538461538463,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.943166686046831,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0012978944465760441,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.76
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3461538461538463,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.943166686046831,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.19
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.18940300898582937,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2769230769230768,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9495088648255182,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.44745847789077775,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.76
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.6124813361313772,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2769230769230768,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9495088648255182,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.3665802570867773,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.76
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.1585795813277634,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2769230769230768,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9495088648255182
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.032088747349644085,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2769230769230768,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9495088648255182,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.08591644384722223,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.15200000000000002
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.003069353966519563,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2769230769230768,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9495088648255182,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.008218082645555555,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.76
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.012154650790582493,
        "change_twh": 0.012154650790582493,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2769230769230768,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9495088648255182,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.03254363159624112,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.19
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.154644102261218,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "useful_heat_twh": 1.1611608211554578,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 5.9300523836464025,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 5.963521124652103,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.5077119159099253,
        "change_twh": 0.5077119159099253,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.5105774013255278,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.4810860404240469,
        "change_twh": 0.4810860404240469,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
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          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.827349718789931,
        "change_twh": 0.827349718789931,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
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        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
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          "replacement_fraction": 0.76,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.2423076923076923,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.9169579224407499,
        "change_twh": 0.8501326362514443,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
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          "replacement_fraction": 0.76,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.2423076923076923,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
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        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
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        "electricity_twh": 4.045348675680384,
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        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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    ],
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
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        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
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      {
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6993817011950164,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.649991474085889
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.0974800337110917
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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      {
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "sector": "industry",
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      {
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0031465302649912757
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      {
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2169404413420655,
        "change_twh": 1.2169404413420655,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 1.2238087557878135,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 6.2499956054022325,
        "change_twh": 6.2499956054022325,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 6.285270080342933,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5351044203248971,
        "change_twh": 0.5351044203248971,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.5381245068428929,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5070420029952207,
        "change_twh": 0.5070420029952207,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.5099037074759531,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.8719875933689855,
        "change_twh": 0.8719875933689855,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.8769090215511604,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.039677006092836246,
        "change_twh": 0.039677006092836246,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.016235182937991952,
        "change_twh": 0.016235182937991952,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 17.029694576253174,
        "change_twh": 16.326750726042064,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 16.979173996301785,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.7899999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.2557692307692307,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.19952228697507,
        "change_twh": 0.18995970556923666,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.19857768902796144,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.7899999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.2557692307692307,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 0.9601694013983564,
        "change_twh": 0.8933441152090509,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9500927311764706,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.7899999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.2557692307692307,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 2.715710062977696,
        "change_twh": 2.6638713136032517,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.723671826325788,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.7899999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.2557692307692307,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 4.24834024560618,
        "change_twh": 4.202775751098541,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 4.270239922041176,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.7899999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.2557692307692307,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 2.161250203374794,
        "change_twh": 0.9194637336969884,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.552936468407492
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.3185500523927054
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.552718158033471
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.002815168090512106
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.512211662779817,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.290108642840498,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.26562619025671996,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4745016759953314
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5412243267642752
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4567082808611418
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7069450291147577,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9979606312983325,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5238547237425201,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.9544243310090013
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4594652212958366
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.109057485073212
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.00046029072378424817
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7346900828938716,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.497574060285419,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1512650147269123
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.461977575412477
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5822705795912496
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0027781536250395494
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.43548558214096056,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.11332703137102791,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.16816573338471302
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5852250027677309
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.0056143844115306
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.37379623798746
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.24383580948217168
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.191925479045757
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 9.93362250933419,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.1877951496128171,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4098559300093227,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3359568599125,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7762994713024878,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 0.5244079272899781,
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2044,
    "scenario": "higher_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.82,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 11.5,
      "services_activity": 1.5,
      "industry_activity": 1.4,
      "road_activity": 1.35,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.4,
      "households_electric_intensity": 1.0,
      "services_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 1.05,
      "space_heat_spf": 2.5,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.2,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 3,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 1,
      "process_heat_intensity": 1.05,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.05,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 2,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.23,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.35,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.5,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.5,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.075,
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      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1,
      "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.15,
      "residual_twh": 2.5,
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      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "district_heat_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.08
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
      "households": 29.63605029816049,
      "services": 30.873586399338134,
      "industry": 33.24598922948195,
      "transport": 30.3408482514887,
      "unallocated": 2.209643031464109,
      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 126.30611720993339,
    "change_from_2024_twh": 68.79411720993339,
    "annual_supply_accounting_before_storage_and_exports_twh": 136.9442745204263,
    "effective_loss_fraction": 0.07768238101043172,
    "components": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 13.141808661956702,
        "change_twh": 2.3082146853376386,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_cooling",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "legacy_heating_auxiliaries",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.719833738245169,
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        "source": "Tabelle17!AA12; retirement allocation is a scenario assumption",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "electricity_twh": 21.059572257595157,
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        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_cooling",
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        "electricity_twh": 3.500641852048561,
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 15.340923738428057,
        "electricity_twh": 20.83279288739195,
        "change_twh": 5.491869148963893,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.43597542027777775,
        "electricity_twh": 1.4472320164250492,
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 3.309249636231664,
        "electricity_twh": 3.994597194031122,
        "change_twh": 0.6853475577994579,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 3.405167502891311,
        "change_twh": 3.405167502891311,
        "source": "Tabelle20!AA7",
        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9230769230769231,
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          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.82
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 3.2744512750626056,
        "change_twh": 3.2744512750626056,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9230769230769231,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 8.12298316310414,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.82
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2130608448423672,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2130608448423672,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2130608448423672,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2130608448423672,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2130608448423672,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.2130608448423672,
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "services",
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          "activity": 1.3846153846153846,
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        "sector": "services",
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          "activity": 1.3846153846153846,
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      {
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3846153846153846,
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        "sector": "industry",
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          "activity": 1.3076923076923077,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3076923076923077,
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3076923076923077,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3076923076923077,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3076923076923077,
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "calculation_details": {
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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        "calculation_details": {
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      {
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6931093470924337
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        "sector": "services",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.2643284105333457
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        "sector": "services",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.1198655191859626
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        "sector": "services",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.000398747863733724
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7532136044188493,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "services",
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        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.13081050691016866
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3995075856101783
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5832704268216811
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0024024833807198233
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4393642387428585,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.2099823524231486
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        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 8.605807293144476,
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.16269280080217802,
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        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.35507098727563285,
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1573811343805513,
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        "sector": "transport",
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 0.5244079272899781,
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      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
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      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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    "year": 2045,
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      "population_million": 11.5,
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 0.13079270068055557,
        "electricity_twh": 0.16285513499838053,
        "change_twh": 0.03206243431782496,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.323076923076923,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9410936756297713
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.036870367629859895,
        "change_twh": 0.036870367629859895,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.323076923076923,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9410936756297713,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.09609075956597221,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.17
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.003526725674226114,
        "change_twh": 0.003526725674226114,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.323076923076923,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9410936756297713,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.009191276643055555,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.85
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.013965844106604374,
        "change_twh": 0.013965844106604374,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.323076923076923,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9410936756297713,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.03639748270632231,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.2125
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.3455158663376243,
        "change_twh": 1.3455158663376243,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 1.3531098501907357,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 6.910336747733526,
        "change_twh": 6.910336747733526,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 6.949338135227148,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5916406943469852,
        "change_twh": 0.5916406943469852,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.5949798670703391,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.5606133519379954,
        "change_twh": 0.5606133519379954,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.563777408824254,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.9641171435091946,
        "change_twh": 0.9641171435091946,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.9695585434982152,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.043446903704836566,
        "change_twh": 0.043446903704836566,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.017777763475573766,
        "change_twh": 0.017777763475573766,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 18.647446595032534,
        "change_twh": 17.944502744821424,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 16.979173996301785,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.85,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.2826923076923078,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.2183468405078007,
        "change_twh": 0.20878425910196738,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.19857768902796144,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.85,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.2826923076923078,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 1.0487325842764232,
        "change_twh": 0.9819072980871177,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9500927311764706,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.85,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.2826923076923078,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 2.9795619400198445,
        "change_twh": 2.9277231906454,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.723671826325788,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.85,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.2826923076923078,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 4.66456009899372,
        "change_twh": 4.618995604486081,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 4.270239922041176,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.85,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.2826923076923078,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 2.2580358595534245,
        "change_twh": 1.016249389875619,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.840436902518372
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6714654397260666
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.529452687734459
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.002029482247085697
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.535509187818388,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.348441292821016,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2680895307905182,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3462153489465384
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3948988562706203
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.45987678836366175
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7221414069794617,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0194126342444432,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5351154215342139,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4256994453065914
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0646402234316807
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.1299104247242866
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0003357695763233669
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7715729944670584,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.529415420413368,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.10996345006243237
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.33583871416366123
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5841558722549443
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.002019603528048643
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.44321217309613425,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.11533773310600438,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.16795035490174914
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.48901317154144247
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.511487061558447
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.4175314163901827
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.20374885209334814
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.227141054698101
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 7.247567505716368,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.13701527542304637,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.29903074307177663,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.9747136573634188,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.2959874724991898,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    ],
    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 0.5244079272899781,
      "feasible_lower_twh": 0,
      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
    },
    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2046,
    "scenario": "higher_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.88,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 11.5,
      "services_activity": 1.5,
      "industry_activity": 1.4,
      "road_activity": 1.35,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.4,
      "households_electric_intensity": 1.0,
      "services_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 1.05,
      "space_heat_spf": 2.5,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.2,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 3,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 1,
      "process_heat_intensity": 1.05,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
      "process_heatpump_share": 0.05,
      "process_heatpump_cop": 2,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.23,
      "vans_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.35,
      "trucks_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.5,
      "buses_battery_kwh_per_km": 1.5,
      "motorcycles_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.075,
      "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
      "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1,
      "foreign_van_activity_addition": 0.15,
      "residual_twh": 2.5,
      "data_centres_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "district_heat_increment_twh": 0.0,
      "effective_loss_fraction": 0.08
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    "sector_electricity_twh": {
      "households": 30.552863610199147,
      "services": 32.35778472376318,
      "industry": 35.039520113511706,
      "transport": 32.845143729270305,
      "unallocated": 2.3064286876427396,
      "explicit_additions": 0.0
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    "electricity_demand_twh": 133.10174086438707,
    "change_from_2024_twh": 75.58974086438707,
    "annual_supply_accounting_before_storage_and_exports_twh": 144.43323918747453,
    "effective_loss_fraction": 0.07845492067362114,
    "components": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 10.833593976619063,
        "electricity_twh": 13.372630130490464,
        "change_twh": 2.5390361538714004,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "space_cooling",
        "baseline_twh": 0.19067475662132183,
        "electricity_twh": 0.6336685756981961,
        "change_twh": 0.4429938190768743,
        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "legacy_heating_auxiliaries",
        "baseline_twh": 0.5934028299616816,
        "electricity_twh": 0.7324768290735176,
        "change_twh": 0.13907399911183604,
        "source": "Tabelle17!AA12; retirement allocation is a scenario assumption",
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "retained_electricity",
        "baseline_twh": 14.646369183265765,
        "electricity_twh": 21.724725414290806,
        "change_twh": 7.07835623102504,
        "source": "BFE sector electricity minus explicitly modeled electric components",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4789529738540597
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.3431695372954915
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.516877289829393
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0016308675405303378
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        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.546880884932201,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.376913897800571,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2798998820058476
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        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.31925835642676503
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        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4613781461352147
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        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0301878473488415,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "households",
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        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1522738779846682
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8604598416241065
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        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.139198490363132
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        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.00027137452644248857
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7897682530384993,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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        "sector": "services",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.08872841760202169
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.27098492872241725
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.584927794032493
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.001629598063042553
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4470293852007876,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.252938001936342
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.243396394130135
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      {
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 5.858903147049873,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.11076257347542216,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.241735197397754,
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7879544288611023,
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 0.5244079272899781,
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      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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    "year": 2047,
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0006350278316206364,
        "change_twh": 0.0006350278316206364,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.4423076923076923,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9273796543931729,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.001554057824189737,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.9099999999999999
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.4423076923076923,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9273796543931729,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.22749999999999998
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.23704636586539293,
        "change_twh": 0.23704636586539293,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3538461538461537,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9354835494992731,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.5357726511586943,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.9099999999999999
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.7665478794013544,
        "change_twh": 0.7665478794013544,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3538461538461537,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9354835494992731,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.6363000446696938,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.9099999999999999
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 0.13079270068055557,
        "electricity_twh": 0.16564906076229702,
        "change_twh": 0.03485636008174145,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3538461538461537,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9354835494992731
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0401605074023665,
        "change_twh": 0.0401605074023665,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3538461538461537,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9354835494992731,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.10287363671180554,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.182
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.003841434237047559,
        "change_twh": 0.003841434237047559,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3538461538461537,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9354835494992731,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.009840072641388888,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.9099999999999999
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.015212090946696996,
        "change_twh": 0.015212090946696996,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3538461538461537,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9354835494992731,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.03896671677970976,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.22749999999999998
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.4794424481931696,
        "change_twh": 1.4794424481931696,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 1.4877923029546498,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 7.5981605060767015,
        "change_twh": 7.5981605060767015,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 7.641043915808279,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.6505299411131401,
        "change_twh": 0.6505299411131401,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.6542014800316853,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.6164142769556985,
        "change_twh": 0.6164142769556985,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.6198932697963926,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.0600810163767618,
        "change_twh": 1.0600810163767618,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 1.0660640287831982,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.04732359483842915,
        "change_twh": 0.04732359483842915,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.01936404217817302,
        "change_twh": 0.01936404217817302,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 20.317783357360803,
        "change_twh": 19.614839507149693,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 16.979173996301785,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.9099999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.3096153846153846,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.2377820582343875,
        "change_twh": 0.22821947682855417,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.19857768902796144,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.9099999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.3096153846153846,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 1.1401494004382944,
        "change_twh": 1.0733241142489889,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9500927311764706,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.9099999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.3096153846153846,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 3.2520458931567573,
        "change_twh": 3.200207143782313,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.723671826325788,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.9099999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.3096153846153846,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 5.09442890376252,
        "change_twh": 5.048864409254881,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 4.270239922041176,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.9099999999999999,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.3096153846153846,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 2.3548215157320547,
        "change_twh": 1.1130350460542493,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.1140868744585726
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.011801982975805
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.5036829913253555
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0012285232546309988
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.5580678717756995,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.40492402277299,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2704747507007529,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.21212729898946814
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.24195584629511105
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.46282381196231537
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.737430747544461,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.040995868207469,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5464450057989373,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.8729118974598558
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6518464467438876
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.1477360047774394
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0002055813789804011
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.807799380133171,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.560689995627957,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.06710998294725491
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.20496019693593798
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5855870702957803
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0012325509817180998
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.45081587505681864,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.11731645526345919,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.16757775670517425
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3868281359402309
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.9866823942559768
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.4591907606071017
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.16117314060640234
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.258743178978777
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.439814217144993,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.08393469495930551,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.18318435025356522,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.597103448873603,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7939137650122478,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      }
    ],
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      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 0.5244079272899781,
      "feasible_lower_twh": 0,
      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
    },
    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  },
  {
    "year": 2048,
    "scenario": "higher_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.94,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 11.5,
      "services_activity": 1.5,
      "industry_activity": 1.4,
      "road_activity": 1.35,
      "other_transport_activity": 1.4,
      "households_electric_intensity": 1.0,
      "services_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "industry_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 1.05,
      "space_heat_spf": 2.5,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.2,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
      "gas_boiler_efficiency": 0.9,
      "solid_boiler_efficiency": 0.75,
      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
      "wood_heat_conversion": 0.2,
      "other_heat_conversion": 0.25,
      "resistance_conversion": 1.0,
      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 3,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 1,
      "process_heat_intensity": 1.05,
      "process_fossil_conversion": 0.9,
      "process_wood_conversion": 0.2,
      "process_other_conversion": 0.25,
      "process_existing_efficiency": 0.85,
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          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 3.391524898260752,
        "change_twh": 3.3396861488863077,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.723671826325788,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.94,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.3230769230769233,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 5.314481662914894,
        "change_twh": 5.268917168407255,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 4.270239922041176,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.94,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.3230769230769233,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 2.40321434382137,
        "change_twh": 1.1614278741435644,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
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    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7459190491434033
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.6774358358987981
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.4898769481508936
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.000822538097300768
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.5690701483488834,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.432471667738275,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.27163806542203384,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.14289091454877992
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.16298370045832228
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4642134648764774
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7451102788395713,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.051836696820325,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5521356303586851,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5876927560653451
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.43885922042428704
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.155529256642155
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.00013840879882641587
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.825666375751075,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5761147388927417,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.045112719516450184
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.13777848645371438
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5861345791862602
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0008285462800918265
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.45457164266422756,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.11829382400061604,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.16733333177546802
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3334775525975386
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.7126830265714361
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.4792340299795854
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.13894445486299012
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.273176217503547
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.9903007160017183,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.056531639874696234,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.12337820163920989,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.40216071740091913,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5347162705124098,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
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    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 0.5244079272899781,
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      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
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    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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  },
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    "year": 2049,
    "scenario": "higher_demand",
    "evidence": "illustrative_scenario_calculation",
    "boundary": "BFE national final electricity consumption; supply-side losses and storage pumping separate",
    "technology_replacement_progress": 0.97,
    "parameters_2050": {
      "population_million": 11.5,
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      "households_electric_intensity": 1.0,
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      "industry_electric_intensity": 1.05,
      "other_transport_electric_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_intensity": 0.9,
      "space_heat_weather_multiplier": 1.0,
      "water_heat_intensity": 1.05,
      "space_heat_spf": 2.5,
      "water_heat_spf": 2.2,
      "existing_hp_intensity": 1.0,
      "unsplit_existing_heat_intensity": 1.0,
      "oil_boiler_efficiency": 0.85,
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      "fossil_heat_conversion": 1.0,
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      "household_auxiliary_retirement": 0,
      "cooling_service_multiplier": 3,
      "cooling_electric_intensity": 1,
      "process_heat_intensity": 1.05,
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      "process_heatpump_cop": 2,
      "process_direct_efficiency": 0.98,
      "cooking_conversion_ratio": 0.55,
      "cars_battery_kwh_per_km": 0.23,
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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        "sector": "households",
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "calculation_details": {}
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "source": "Tabelle52 climate cooling electricity; excludes process refrigeration",
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.97
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 3.9592779664845255,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9038461538461539,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 9.608894717330507,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.97
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        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9038461538461539,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 0.9038461538461539
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.3231664263087487,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.266326056052959,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9038461538461539,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.9411631695060533,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.004006107531591555,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 1,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.9017536928764006,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 1.0480769230769231,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.97
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 1.0890581549194327,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 1.0480769230769231,
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          "conversion_fraction": 0.97
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0382004607820837,
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 1.0480769230769231,
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "calculation_details": {
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          "heat_service_scale": 1.0480769230769231,
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      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.622964902529772,
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        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.266326056052959,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0,
          "heat_service_scale": 1.0480769230769231
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 3.322095296723518,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.4807692307692308,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9210648417317098,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 7.03370507218287,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.97
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 2.6267005182428447,
        "change_twh": 2.6267005182428447,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.4807692307692308,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9210648417317098,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 5.252415131571416,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.97
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 1.037033997659623,
        "electricity_twh": 1.4143945717155144,
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        "source": "Tabelle52!D10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.4807692307692308,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9210648417317098
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.23259561038616242,
        "change_twh": 0.23259561038616242,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.4807692307692308,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9210648417317098,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.5581247020943044,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.194
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0006903475470927206,
        "change_twh": 0.0006903475470927206,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.4807692307692308,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9210648417317098,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0016565231752352142,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.97
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      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Tabelle52!D15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.4807692307692308,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8806170973268125,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9210648417317098,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.0,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.2425
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.2569355606882169,
        "change_twh": 0.2569355606882169,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E8",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3846153846153846,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9298734233687753,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.5710983204658611,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.85,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.97
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.8308644955147335,
        "change_twh": 0.8308644955147335,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E9",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3846153846153846,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9298734233687753,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 1.7441879597028604,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.9,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.97
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_existing_electric_unsplit",
        "baseline_twh": 0.13079270068055557,
        "electricity_twh": 0.16839783184635104,
        "change_twh": 0.037605131165795475,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E10",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3846153846153846,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9298734233687753
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.04353014419470066,
        "change_twh": 0.04353014419470066,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E11",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3846153846153846,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9298734233687753,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.10965651385763887,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.194
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0041637468515471655,
        "change_twh": 0.0041637468515471655,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E12",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3846153846153846,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9298734233687753,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.010488868639722222,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.97
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "space_and_water_new_electric_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.01648844985393787,
        "change_twh": 0.01648844985393787,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E15",
        "calculation_details": {
          "activity": 1.3846153846153846,
          "space_fraction_assumed_for_combined_carriers": 0.8195442646431583,
          "heat_service_scale": 0.9298734233687753,
          "displaced_input_before_activity_twh": 0.04153595085309722,
          "existing_generator_efficiency": 0.75,
          "conversion_fraction": 0.2425
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_oil",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.6187691802065047,
        "change_twh": 1.6187691802065047,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E17",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 1.3605552675,
          "useful_heat_twh": 1.6279053838916107,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 8.313718501534618,
        "change_twh": 8.313718501534618,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E18",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 6.98757651065,
          "useful_heat_twh": 8.360640463318548,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.7117937036088114,
        "change_twh": 0.7117937036088114,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E20",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5982537131666666,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.7158110102992665,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_coal",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.6744651912575615,
        "change_twh": 0.6744651912575615,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E21",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.5668795650000003,
          "useful_heat_twh": 0.6782718188121194,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
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      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "component": "new_process_heat_from_other",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 1.1599143176731597,
        "change_twh": 1.1599143176731597,
        "source": "Tabelle52!E24",
        "calculation_details": {
          "converted_2024_input_at_full_adoption_twh": 0.9748934894828958,
          "useful_heat_twh": 1.166460781241351,
          "heatpump_share_assumption": 0.05
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_gas",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.051307079493614016,
        "change_twh": 0.051307079493614016,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.02099401904578972,
        "change_twh": 0.02099401904578972,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 22.04070486323798,
        "change_twh": 21.33776101302687,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 16.979173996301785,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.97,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.3365384615384617,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.25782794015483046,
        "change_twh": 0.24826535874899713,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.19857768902796144,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.97,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.3365384615384617,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2344198498839707,
        "change_twh": 1.1675945636946652,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9500927311764706,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.97,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.3365384615384617,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 3.533161922388438,
        "change_twh": 3.4813231730139935,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.723671826325788,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.97,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.3365384615384617,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 5.537946659912582,
        "change_twh": 5.492382165404943,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 4.270239922041176,
          "replacement_fraction": 0.97,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.3365384615384617,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
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      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
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        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
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        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.37452994272004775
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.3401441551962654
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.475466316234561
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.00041300077645273805
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      {
        "sector": "households",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.579887714651753,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.459556832696425,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.272781849987424,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.07218404333516373
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.08233429349906372
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4655467839092153
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      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7528130508097555,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.06271033318741,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5578434765366903,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.2966957061343291
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.22155734429856974
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.1625845346322223
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      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.987545086984488e-05
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      {
        "sector": "services",
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        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.8433692398922101,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5913977859291861,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.022741200727925792
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.06945376492523792
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5865711988453858
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.000417667954180278
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.45829668802301415,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.11926319784339245,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.16705059979078132
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.27861193147932706
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.4309026869368031
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
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        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.498748782906058
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.11608452393927511
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      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.28669031796397
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      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.5103626436200541,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.028553408221594394,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.062316751554688125,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.20312623444305145,
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        "sector": "transport",
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      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
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      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
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        "source": "Tabelle52!C18",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "component": "new_cooking_from_wood",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.021825394291479613,
        "change_twh": 0.021825394291479613,
        "source": "Tabelle52!C20",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_cars",
        "baseline_twh": 0.702943850211111,
        "electricity_twh": 22.921884895007413,
        "change_twh": 22.218941044796303,
        "source": "Tabelle39!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 57044.65571880046,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 16.979173996301785,
          "replacement_fraction": 1.0,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.35,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_motorcycles",
        "baseline_twh": 0.009562581405833333,
        "electricity_twh": 0.268079880187748,
        "change_twh": 0.25851729878191465,
        "source": "Tabelle39!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2045.9519475608147,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.19857768902796144,
          "replacement_fraction": 1.0,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.35,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_buses",
        "baseline_twh": 0.06682528618930555,
        "electricity_twh": 1.2826251870882355,
        "change_twh": 1.21579990089893,
        "source": "Tabelle39!G28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 489.44171,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 0.9500927311764706,
          "replacement_fraction": 1.0,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.35,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_vans",
        "baseline_twh": 0.05183874937444444,
        "electricity_twh": 3.6769569655398144,
        "change_twh": 3.62511821616537,
        "source": "Tabelle41!C28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 5228.957769343694,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 2.723671826325788,
          "replacement_fraction": 1.0,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.35,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "component": "road_trucks",
        "baseline_twh": 0.045564494507638886,
        "electricity_twh": 5.764823894755588,
        "change_twh": 5.719259400247949,
        "source": "Tabelle41!D28",
        "calculation_details": {
          "million_vehicle_km_2024": 2199.8205658999996,
          "full_electric_at_2024_activity_twh": 4.270239922041176,
          "replacement_fraction": 1.0,
          "activity_multiplier": 1.35,
          "charging_efficiency": 0.85,
          "domestic_charging_multiplier": 1.1
        }
      },
      {
        "sector": "unallocated",
        "component": "explicit_residual",
        "baseline_twh": 1.2417864696778054,
        "electricity_twh": 2.5,
        "change_twh": 1.2582135303221946,
        "source": "Detailed official final electricity minus published end-use sector sum",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "data_centres_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "hydrogen_and_efuels_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      },
      {
        "sector": "explicit_additions",
        "component": "district_heat_increment",
        "baseline_twh": 0,
        "electricity_twh": 0.0,
        "change_twh": 0.0,
        "source": "Editable additional electricity assumption; not an observed future requirement",
        "calculation_details": {}
      }
    ],
    "remaining_non_electric_reference_flows": [
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.460458251504904
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 2.590520570684307,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 6.486179517647438,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "space",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.27390610439692326,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4668234480920428
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.7605390634550134,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "ambient_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.0736167773087235,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "households",
        "end_use": "water",
        "carrier": "solar_thermal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.563568544332953,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.1689081274225854
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.8609079725565765,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.6065391367372903,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "services",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.5868978074146105
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "district_heat",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.4619910111331783,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "ambient_and_solar",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.12022457679178845,
        "note": "Existing ambient/solar and district heat are retained reference flows, not added electricity or full future renewable-heat accounting"
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "space_and_water",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.16672989337558816
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "oil",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.22222402702500008
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "gas",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 1.141304163406166
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "wood",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 3.5177318334199996
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "coal",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.09259032894999995
      },
      {
        "sector": "industry",
        "end_use": "process",
        "carrier": "other",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 4.2992802886195705
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "cars",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "motorcycles",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "buses",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "vans",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      },
      {
        "sector": "transport",
        "end_use": "trucks",
        "carrier": "non_electric_transport_energy",
        "remaining_final_energy_twh": 0.0,
        "note": "Covered road modes only; no claim of zero aviation, navigation or non-road fossil demand"
      }
    ],
    "industrial_low_temperature_allocation": {
      "assumed_twh_2024_basis": 0.5244079272899781,
      "feasible_lower_twh": 0,
      "feasible_upper_twh": 4.732211898744723,
      "status": "feasible_assumption_not_identified_joint_distribution"
    },
    "omissions": [
      "International aviation and synthetic fuels unless explicit additional electricity entered",
      "Domestic non-road and navigation fuel conversion",
      "Foreign van activity unless explicit addition entered",
      "District heat production electrification unless explicit addition entered",
      "National hourly load, winter peaks, storage, generation outages and cross-border adequacy"
    ]
  }
]