{
  "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18",
  "model_reproduced": false,
  "headline": {
    "cost_claim": "eth-psi-occ-low",
    "financing_claim": "eth-psi-wacc-derisked",
    "target_claim": "eth-psi-shared-target",
    "capacity_claims": [
      "eth-psi-nuclear-lower",
      "eth-psi-nuclear-upper"
    ]
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "finding_id": "security-scope",
      "source_id": "eth-psi-report-2026",
      "locator": "printed p2 (PDF p6)",
      "evidence_status": "verified_author_scope_statement",
      "finding": "The authors explicitly exclude a security-of-supply study of adequacy under stress scenarios.",
      "implication": "Does not establish resilience to prolonged import loss, severe weather or coincident outages; applies to both nuclear and no-new-nuclear pathways."
    },
    {
      "finding_id": "winter-import-goal",
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "locator": "Table3 p7; section2.3.2 p11 (PDF pp13,17)",
      "evidence_status": "verified_model_assumption",
      "finding": "The 5 TWh winter net-import goal is not implemented in any model. The authors cite missing implementation rules and distortion of arbitrage/capacity decisions.",
      "implication": "Our sovereignty/import constraint requires explicit sensitivity runs; do not assume these scenarios meet that goal."
    },
    {
      "finding_id": "delivery-and-lifetime",
      "source_id": "eth-psi-report-2026",
      "locator": "section2.2.1 p10 (PDF p14)",
      "evidence_status": "verified_model_assumption",
      "finding": "New nuclear is assumed operational in 2050, not earlier. Lifetime extensions are excluded; STEM closes Gösgen in2039 and Leibstadt in2044, and Beznau in2032/2033.",
      "implication": "An assumed start date is not a demonstrated licensing/construction schedule; separately test earlier delivery, late delivery and extended operation."
    },
    {
      "finding_id": "continuous-reactor-investment",
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "locator": "section2.3.3 p12 (PDF p18)",
      "evidence_status": "verified_model_assumption",
      "finding": "Nuclear capacity is continuously optimised, with a 300 MW minimum and generic GenIII/III+ light-water reactor assumptions.",
      "implication": "Optimal capacity is not a selected reactor fleet or SMR cost demonstration. Test discrete available units and site-specific constraints."
    },
    {
      "finding_id": "low-cost-capacity-range",
      "source_id": "eth-psi-report-2026",
      "locator": "pp21–22 and27 (PDF pp25–26,31)",
      "evidence_status": "verified_result_scope",
      "finding": "The quoted 2.6–4.9 GW nuclear range belongs to the CHF2024 5,000/kW low-cost case with 5% WACC and the shared nuclear/renewable generation target.",
      "implication": "Do not extend this capacity range to all 5,000–8,000 CHF/kW scenarios."
    },
    {
      "finding_id": "market-driven-results",
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "locator": "section2.3.2 p11; Figures21 and25 pp23,25 (PDF pp17,29,31)",
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_visual_result_verified",
      "finding": "Without a domestic-generation target, STEM selects nuclear at all three cost levels with either WACC. The other three models select zero at8%; at5%, only Nexus-e selects some at the lowest cost. Import reliance remains prominent.",
      "implication": "Neither universal nuclear exclusion nor universal nuclear investment follows from removing the domestic-generation target. The5% scenario still assumes financing de-risking; it is not evidence of fully unsupported commercial investment."
    },
    {
      "finding_id": "unequal-inputs",
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "locator": "Tables2–3 pp3–7 (PDF pp9–13)",
      "evidence_status": "verified_model_input_differences",
      "finding": "Demand treatment, typical-day counts, renewable resource limits, fuel prices and nuclear operating assumptions differ across models despite partial harmonisation.",
      "implication": "Model disagreement must be examined through assumptions as well as structure; do not count four outputs as independent measurements."
    },
    {
      "finding_id": "ses-nuclear-exceptions",
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "locator": "Table3 p6; annualisation section2.2.3 p8 (PDF pp12,14)",
      "evidence_status": "verified_table_with_unresolved_method_consistency",
      "finding": "SES lists zero planned outage weeks and construction time as not modelled; the annualisation explanation later groups SES with models whose formula includes construction time.",
      "implication": "Confirm the actual SES implementation before calculating interest-during-construction effects or interpreting its capacity factor."
    },
    {
      "finding_id": "central-planner-vs-owner",
      "source_id": "eth-psi-report-2026",
      "locator": "section2.3 p15 (PDF p19)",
      "evidence_status": "verified_author_method_statement",
      "finding": "The optimisation takes a central-planner perspective rather than that of a single firm.",
      "implication": "Least system cost does not itself establish owner profitability, acceptable contract risk or the commercial terms needed by hydro and nuclear operators."
    },
    {
      "finding_id": "accounting-and-wacc-ambiguities",
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "locator": "Table3 pp6–7; section2.2.2 p8 (PDF pp12–14)",
      "evidence_status": "unresolved_documentation_discrepancies",
      "finding": "Table3 lists household rooftop PV WACC3.6% and large commercial rooftop4.3%, while prose uses rooftop3.8% and open-field4.3%. STEM decommissioning is15% of OCC but the displayed1,200–1,800 CHF/kW range omits750 for the5,000 cost case.",
      "implication": "Preserve both statements and verify code/inputs. Do not silently resolve them or infer that these discrepancies invalidate the entire study."
    },
    {
      "finding_id": "external-carbon-removal",
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "locator": "section2.3.1 pp10–11 (PDF pp16–17)",
      "evidence_status": "verified_scenario_assumption",
      "finding": "Selected scenarios allow emissions compensation abroad; the documentation states a7.2 MtCO2 allowance.",
      "implication": "Net-zero modelling here is not synonymous with zero domestic emissions or full energy/material sovereignty."
    }
  ],
  "model_inputs": {
    "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
    "locator": "Table3 printed pp5–6, visually verified",
    "evidence_status": "published_2050_model_assumptions_not_observations_or_our_adopted_base_case",
    "rows": [
      {
        "parameter": "Space_heat_service",
        "unit": "TWh_2050",
        "values": {
          "Nexus-e": null,
          "SES": 52.0,
          "SES-ETH": 52.0,
          "STEM": 52.0
        },
        "note": "Energy-service demand, not heat-pump electricity; Nexus-e cell is a dash."
      },
      {
        "parameter": "Warm_water_service",
        "unit": "TWh_2050",
        "values": {
          "Nexus-e": null,
          "SES": 9.3,
          "SES-ETH": 9.3,
          "STEM": 9.3
        },
        "note": "Energy-service demand."
      },
      {
        "parameter": "Industrial_heat_service",
        "unit": "TWh_2050",
        "values": {
          "Nexus-e": null,
          "SES": 18.6,
          "SES-ETH": 18.6,
          "STEM": 18.6
        },
        "note": "Energy-service demand."
      },
      {
        "parameter": "Electricity_base_service",
        "unit": "TWh_2050",
        "values": {
          "Nexus-e": null,
          "SES": 37.4,
          "SES-ETH": 37.3,
          "STEM": 37.3
        },
        "note": "Footnote2: energy-service demand, not final electricity consumption. Nexus-e cell is blank."
      },
      {
        "parameter": "Total_electricity",
        "unit": "TWh_2050",
        "values": {
          "Nexus-e": 76,
          "SES": "endogenous",
          "SES-ETH": "endogenous",
          "STEM": "endogenous"
        },
        "note": "Nexus-e assumption cites BFE2020; do not treat as independently updated demand forecast."
      },
      {
        "parameter": "Rooftop_PV_potential",
        "unit": "GW",
        "values": {
          "Nexus-e": 44,
          "SES": 50,
          "SES-ETH": 50,
          "STEM": 50
        }
      },
      {
        "parameter": "Open_field_PV_potential",
        "unit": "GW",
        "values": {
          "Nexus-e": 0,
          "SES": 20,
          "SES-ETH": 10,
          "STEM": 1.7
        }
      },
      {
        "parameter": "Alpine_PV_potential",
        "unit": "GW",
        "values": {
          "Nexus-e": 7.6,
          "SES": 0,
          "SES-ETH": 5,
          "STEM": 15
        }
      },
      {
        "parameter": "Wind_potential",
        "unit": "GW",
        "values": {
          "Nexus-e": 1.7,
          "SES": 4.3,
          "SES-ETH": 4.3,
          "STEM": 18
        }
      },
      {
        "parameter": "Nuclear_variable_OM",
        "unit": "CHF_per_MWh_e",
        "values": {
          "Nexus-e": 10.2,
          "SES": 10.2,
          "SES-ETH": 10.2,
          "STEM": 11.7
        },
        "note": "STEM waste disposal separate; other models include waste/decommissioning within variable costs."
      },
      {
        "parameter": "Nuclear_fuel",
        "unit": "CHF_per_MWh_e",
        "values": {
          "Nexus-e": 4,
          "SES": 4,
          "SES-ETH": 4,
          "STEM": 4
        }
      },
      {
        "parameter": "Nuclear_fixed_OM",
        "unit": "percent_CAPEX_per_year",
        "values": {
          "Nexus-e": 2.5,
          "SES": 2.5,
          "SES-ETH": 2.5,
          "STEM": 3
        }
      },
      {
        "parameter": "Nuclear_lifetime",
        "unit": "years",
        "values": {
          "Nexus-e": 60,
          "SES": 60,
          "SES-ETH": 60,
          "STEM": 60
        },
        "note": "STEM lists40-year amortisation."
      },
      {
        "parameter": "Nuclear_construction_time",
        "unit": "years",
        "values": {
          "Nexus-e": 10,
          "SES": "not modelled",
          "SES-ETH": 10,
          "STEM": 10
        },
        "note": "SES table/prose consistency remains unresolved."
      },
      {
        "parameter": "Planned_nuclear_outages",
        "unit": "weeks_per_year",
        "values": {
          "Nexus-e": 4,
          "SES": 0,
          "SES-ETH": 4,
          "STEM": 4
        },
        "note": "Nexus-e/SES-ETH: June; STEM optimises four consecutive weeks."
      },
      {
        "parameter": "Heat_pump_COP",
        "unit": "ratio",
        "values": {
          "Nexus-e": null,
          "SES": [
            3,
            4
          ],
          "SES-ETH": 3.5,
          "STEM": [
            3.0,
            3.9
          ]
        },
        "note": "Ranges depend on type/use; annual assumptions are not cold-spell peak performance."
      },
      {
        "parameter": "Passenger_EV_consumption",
        "unit": "kWh_per_100_km",
        "values": {
          "Nexus-e": null,
          "SES": 17,
          "SES-ETH": 20,
          "STEM": [
            11.3,
            16.1
          ]
        },
        "note": "STEM varies with vehicle size; do not mix passenger-km with vehicle-km."
      }
    ]
  },
  "demand_comparison": [
    {
      "parameter": "Space_heat_service",
      "label": "Space heating",
      "value": 52.0,
      "claim_id": "eth-psi-demand-space-heat-service",
      "kind": "heat service"
    },
    {
      "parameter": "Warm_water_service",
      "label": "Hot water",
      "value": 9.3,
      "claim_id": "eth-psi-demand-warm-water-service",
      "kind": "heat service"
    },
    {
      "parameter": "Industrial_heat_service",
      "label": "Industrial heat",
      "value": 18.6,
      "claim_id": "eth-psi-demand-industrial-heat-service",
      "kind": "heat service"
    },
    {
      "parameter": "Total_electricity",
      "label": "Nexus-e electricity input",
      "value": 76,
      "claim_id": "eth-psi-demand-total-electricity",
      "kind": "electricity input"
    }
  ],
  "market_results": [
    {
      "model": "STEM",
      "wacc_percent": 8,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 5000,
      "nuclear_selected": true,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 21,
      "printed_page": 23,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "STEM",
      "wacc_percent": 8,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 8000,
      "nuclear_selected": true,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 21,
      "printed_page": 23,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "STEM",
      "wacc_percent": 8,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 12000,
      "nuclear_selected": true,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 21,
      "printed_page": 23,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "STEM",
      "wacc_percent": 5,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 5000,
      "nuclear_selected": true,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 25,
      "printed_page": 25,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "STEM",
      "wacc_percent": 5,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 8000,
      "nuclear_selected": true,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 25,
      "printed_page": 25,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "STEM",
      "wacc_percent": 5,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 12000,
      "nuclear_selected": true,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 25,
      "printed_page": 25,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "Nexus-e",
      "wacc_percent": 8,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 5000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 21,
      "printed_page": 23,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "Nexus-e",
      "wacc_percent": 8,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 8000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 21,
      "printed_page": 23,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "Nexus-e",
      "wacc_percent": 8,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 12000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 21,
      "printed_page": 23,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "Nexus-e",
      "wacc_percent": 5,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 5000,
      "nuclear_selected": true,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 25,
      "printed_page": 25,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "Nexus-e",
      "wacc_percent": 5,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 8000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 25,
      "printed_page": 25,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "Nexus-e",
      "wacc_percent": 5,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 12000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 25,
      "printed_page": 25,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "SES",
      "wacc_percent": 8,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 5000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 21,
      "printed_page": 23,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "SES",
      "wacc_percent": 8,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 8000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 21,
      "printed_page": 23,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "SES",
      "wacc_percent": 8,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 12000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 21,
      "printed_page": 23,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "SES",
      "wacc_percent": 5,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 5000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 25,
      "printed_page": 25,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "SES",
      "wacc_percent": 5,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 8000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 25,
      "printed_page": 25,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "SES",
      "wacc_percent": 5,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 12000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 25,
      "printed_page": 25,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "SES-ETH",
      "wacc_percent": 8,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 5000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 21,
      "printed_page": 23,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "SES-ETH",
      "wacc_percent": 8,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 8000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 21,
      "printed_page": 23,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "SES-ETH",
      "wacc_percent": 8,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 12000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 21,
      "printed_page": 23,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "SES-ETH",
      "wacc_percent": 5,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 5000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 25,
      "printed_page": 25,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "SES-ETH",
      "wacc_percent": 5,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 8000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 25,
      "printed_page": 25,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "SES-ETH",
      "wacc_percent": 5,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 12000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 25,
      "printed_page": 25,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "eth-psi-occ-low",
      "label": "ETH–PSI: low nuclear construction-cost assumption",
      "value": 5000,
      "unit": "CHF2024/kW",
      "status": "assumption",
      "period": "2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026",
      "definition": "Overnight construction cost per unit of electrical capacity, in 2024 Swiss francs. This excludes construction financing.",
      "limitation": "A model input, distinct from a current executable Swiss project offer. Model-specific construction and operating treatment must also be considered.",
      "sources": [
        "eth-psi-models-2026",
        "eth-psi-study-review"
      ],
      "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18",
      "formula": "Direct transcription from Table 3, p6; section 2.3.3, p12; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation."
    },
    {
      "id": "eth-psi-occ-medium",
      "label": "ETH–PSI: medium nuclear construction-cost assumption",
      "value": 8000,
      "unit": "CHF2024/kW",
      "status": "assumption",
      "period": "2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026",
      "definition": "Overnight construction cost per unit of electrical capacity, in 2024 Swiss francs. This excludes construction financing.",
      "limitation": "A model input, distinct from a current executable Swiss project offer. Model-specific construction and operating treatment must also be considered.",
      "sources": [
        "eth-psi-models-2026",
        "eth-psi-study-review"
      ],
      "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18",
      "formula": "Direct transcription from Table 3, p6; section 2.3.3, p12; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation."
    },
    {
      "id": "eth-psi-occ-high",
      "label": "ETH–PSI: high nuclear construction-cost assumption",
      "value": 12000,
      "unit": "CHF2024/kW",
      "status": "assumption",
      "period": "2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026",
      "definition": "Overnight construction cost per unit of electrical capacity, in 2024 Swiss francs. This excludes construction financing.",
      "limitation": "A model input, distinct from a current executable Swiss project offer. Model-specific construction and operating treatment must also be considered.",
      "sources": [
        "eth-psi-models-2026",
        "eth-psi-study-review"
      ],
      "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18",
      "formula": "Direct transcription from Table 3, p6; section 2.3.3, p12; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation."
    },
    {
      "id": "eth-psi-wacc-derisked",
      "label": "ETH–PSI: derisked nuclear financing assumption",
      "value": 5,
      "unit": "% real WACC",
      "status": "assumption",
      "period": "2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026",
      "definition": "Weighted average cost of capital: the combined return required by debt and equity financing, above inflation.",
      "limitation": "The study associates 5% with investment de-risking such as public guarantees and 8% with private nuclear finance. Neither rate is a bankable financing offer.",
      "sources": [
        "eth-psi-models-2026",
        "eth-psi-study-review"
      ],
      "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18",
      "formula": "Direct transcription from Table 3, p7; section 2.2.2, p8; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation."
    },
    {
      "id": "eth-psi-wacc-private",
      "label": "ETH–PSI: private nuclear financing assumption",
      "value": 8,
      "unit": "% real WACC",
      "status": "assumption",
      "period": "2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026",
      "definition": "Weighted average cost of capital: the combined return required by debt and equity financing, above inflation.",
      "limitation": "The study associates 5% with investment de-risking such as public guarantees and 8% with private nuclear finance. Neither rate is a bankable financing offer.",
      "sources": [
        "eth-psi-models-2026",
        "eth-psi-study-review"
      ],
      "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18",
      "formula": "Direct transcription from Table 3, p7; section 2.2.2, p8; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation."
    },
    {
      "id": "eth-psi-shared-target",
      "label": "ETH–PSI: shared generation target",
      "value": 45,
      "unit": "TWh/year",
      "status": "assumption",
      "period": "2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026",
      "definition": "Hypothetical domestic generation requirement met jointly by non-hydro renewables and new nuclear in the shared-target policy family.",
      "limitation": "This is a study policy variant. The market-driven family removes the domestic-generation requirement; net-zero constraints and electricity trade remain.",
      "sources": [
        "eth-psi-models-2026",
        "eth-psi-study-review"
      ],
      "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18",
      "formula": "Direct transcription from section 2.3.2, p11; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation."
    },
    {
      "id": "eth-psi-nuclear-lower",
      "label": "ETH–PSI: lower end of the low-cost nuclear result",
      "value": 2.6,
      "unit": "GW",
      "status": "scenario",
      "period": "2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026",
      "definition": "Endpoint of the four-model new-nuclear capacity range with CHF2024 5,000/kW overnight cost, 5% real WACC and the shared 45 TWh/year generation target.",
      "limitation": "Only the low-cost case. Not the capacity range for the CHF2024 8,000/kW case, a statistical confidence interval or a selected reactor fleet. New operation in 2050 is assumed.",
      "sources": [
        "eth-psi-report-2026",
        "eth-psi-study-review"
      ],
      "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18",
      "formula": "Direct transcription from pp21–22, Figure 6; conclusion p27; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation."
    },
    {
      "id": "eth-psi-nuclear-upper",
      "label": "ETH–PSI: upper end of the low-cost nuclear result",
      "value": 4.9,
      "unit": "GW",
      "status": "scenario",
      "period": "2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026",
      "definition": "Endpoint of the four-model new-nuclear capacity range with CHF2024 5,000/kW overnight cost, 5% real WACC and the shared 45 TWh/year generation target.",
      "limitation": "Only the low-cost case. Not the capacity range for the CHF2024 8,000/kW case, a statistical confidence interval or a selected reactor fleet. New operation in 2050 is assumed.",
      "sources": [
        "eth-psi-report-2026",
        "eth-psi-study-review"
      ],
      "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18",
      "formula": "Direct transcription from pp21–22, Figure 6; conclusion p27; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation."
    },
    {
      "id": "eth-psi-nuclear-start",
      "label": "ETH–PSI: assumed new-nuclear start year",
      "value": 2050,
      "unit": "year",
      "status": "assumption",
      "period": "2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026",
      "definition": "New nuclear enters the study in 2050 by assumption, with existing-plant lifetime extensions excluded.",
      "limitation": "A scenario boundary rather than a demonstrated licensing or construction schedule. It does not replace WattInfo’s conditional delivery cases.",
      "sources": [
        "eth-psi-report-2026",
        "eth-psi-study-review"
      ],
      "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18",
      "formula": "Direct transcription from section 2.2.1, p10; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation."
    },
    {
      "id": "eth-psi-minimum-unit",
      "label": "ETH–PSI: minimum modelled nuclear investment size",
      "value": 300,
      "unit": "MW",
      "status": "assumption",
      "period": "2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026",
      "definition": "Minimum size within continuous capacity optimisation using generic light-water reactor assumptions.",
      "limitation": "Continuous model sizes are an approximation of discrete available plants. This input establishes neither SMR prices nor approved Swiss sites.",
      "sources": [
        "eth-psi-models-2026",
        "eth-psi-study-review"
      ],
      "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18",
      "formula": "Direct transcription from section 2.3.3, p12; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation."
    },
    {
      "id": "eth-psi-excluded-winter-goal",
      "label": "Winter net-import goal excluded from ETH–PSI modelling",
      "value": 5,
      "unit": "TWh/winter",
      "status": "target",
      "period": "2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026",
      "definition": "The winter net-import goal identified by the authors and explicitly excluded from all four models.",
      "limitation": "Not a model result or enforced import limit. The authors discuss absent implementation rules and effects on trading and investment decisions.",
      "sources": [
        "eth-psi-models-2026",
        "eth-psi-study-review"
      ],
      "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18",
      "formula": "Direct transcription from Table 3, p7; section 2.3.2, p11; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation."
    },
    {
      "id": "eth-psi-demand-space-heat-service",
      "label": "ETH–PSI assumption: Space heating",
      "value": 52.0,
      "unit": "TWh/year",
      "status": "assumption",
      "period": "2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026",
      "definition": "Heat-service demand shared by SES, SES-ETH and STEM. The electricity used to supply this heat depends on the selected equipment and its efficiency.",
      "limitation": "Different model scope and demand treatment from WattInfo. Heat services must not be added directly to final electricity use. These inputs have not replaced our demand scenarios.",
      "sources": [
        "eth-psi-models-2026",
        "eth-psi-study-review"
      ],
      "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18",
      "formula": "Direct transcription from Table 3, p5, including footnotes 2 and 3; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation."
    },
    {
      "id": "eth-psi-demand-warm-water-service",
      "label": "ETH–PSI assumption: Hot water",
      "value": 9.3,
      "unit": "TWh/year",
      "status": "assumption",
      "period": "2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026",
      "definition": "Heat-service demand shared by SES, SES-ETH and STEM. The electricity used to supply this heat depends on the selected equipment and its efficiency.",
      "limitation": "Different model scope and demand treatment from WattInfo. Heat services must not be added directly to final electricity use. These inputs have not replaced our demand scenarios.",
      "sources": [
        "eth-psi-models-2026",
        "eth-psi-study-review"
      ],
      "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18",
      "formula": "Direct transcription from Table 3, p5, including footnotes 2 and 3; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation."
    },
    {
      "id": "eth-psi-demand-industrial-heat-service",
      "label": "ETH–PSI assumption: Industrial heat",
      "value": 18.6,
      "unit": "TWh/year",
      "status": "assumption",
      "period": "2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026",
      "definition": "Heat-service demand shared by SES, SES-ETH and STEM. The electricity used to supply this heat depends on the selected equipment and its efficiency.",
      "limitation": "Different model scope and demand treatment from WattInfo. Heat services must not be added directly to final electricity use. These inputs have not replaced our demand scenarios.",
      "sources": [
        "eth-psi-models-2026",
        "eth-psi-study-review"
      ],
      "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18",
      "formula": "Direct transcription from Table 3, p5, including footnotes 2 and 3; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation."
    },
    {
      "id": "eth-psi-demand-total-electricity",
      "label": "ETH–PSI assumption: Nexus-e electricity input",
      "value": 76,
      "unit": "TWh/year",
      "status": "assumption",
      "period": "2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026",
      "definition": "Externally fixed electricity-demand input for Nexus-e, citing BFE 2020.",
      "limitation": "Different model scope and demand treatment from WattInfo. Heat services must not be added directly to final electricity use. These inputs have not replaced our demand scenarios.",
      "sources": [
        "eth-psi-models-2026",
        "eth-psi-study-review"
      ],
      "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18",
      "formula": "Direct transcription from Table 3, p5, including footnotes 2 and 3; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation."
    }
  ],
  "remaining_work": [
    "Retrieve actual model inputs and code versions before reproducing or resolving discrepancies.",
    "Stress-test low imports, adverse weather, reactor outages, construction delays and lifetime extensions.",
    "Verify battery cost/lifetime/capacity inputs and hydro expansion/owner economics in underlying model documentation; this appendix does not provide a complete parameter set for those questions.",
    "Obtain machine-readable results rather than digitising approximate chart values."
  ],
  "interpretation": "Conditional central-planner system economics. Swiss bids, owner profitability, stress adequacy, site selection and delivery schedules need separate evidence. Market-driven cases retain net-zero constraints; 5% financing remains de-risked.",
  "media_review": {
    "sources": [
      "manera-interview-2025",
      "scnat-response-2025"
    ],
    "scope": "Attributed policy positions, separate from the joint study. Timing and profitability responses reviewed; no adjudication of the underlying SCNAT report.",
    "accounting": "A support tariff times generation gives gross revenue. Establish market revenue, support rules and all owner costs before estimating net subsidy, profit or funds available for construction. Annual generation equality does not establish equal winter service."
  },
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