{
  "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17",
  "interpretation": "Measurements, statistical estimates, study scenarios and explicit arithmetic remain separate. Existing demand-model results and supply scenarios are unchanged.",
  "sources": [
    "bfe-heat-pump-metering-2026",
    "bfe-ep2060-workbook-2026",
    "bfe-ep2060-inputs-2026",
    "bfe-data-centres-2026",
    "bfe-solar-storage-2025",
    "v2x-suisse-2024",
    "smallflex-goms-2026",
    "bfe-hydro-revenue-2023"
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim": {
        "id": "metering-heat-pump-sample",
        "label": "Systems in the heat-pump comparison",
        "value": 4,
        "unit": "systems",
        "status": "observed",
        "period": "January–April 2026",
        "definition": "Systems from different manufacturers compared with calibrated field meters.",
        "limitation": "January–April comparison in four systems. Main heat-output channels; available compressor comparisons cover three systems. National efficiency requires a representative sample and whole-system measurements.",
        "formula": null,
        "sources": [
          "bfe-heat-pump-metering-2026"
        ],
        "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17"
      },
      "research_observation": "HP01",
      "research_metric": "sample_systems",
      "scale": 1
    },
    {
      "claim": {
        "id": "metering-heat-low",
        "label": "Lowest main heat-output deviation",
        "value": -34.7,
        "unit": "%",
        "status": "observed",
        "period": "January–April 2026",
        "definition": "Difference between internal energy data and the calibrated field total: (internal − field) / field × 100.",
        "limitation": "January–April comparison in four systems. Main heat-output channels; available compressor comparisons cover three systems. National efficiency requires a representative sample and whole-system measurements.",
        "formula": null,
        "sources": [
          "bfe-heat-pump-metering-2026"
        ],
        "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17"
      },
      "research_observation": "HP01",
      "research_metric": "thermal_energy_deviation_percent_min",
      "scale": 1
    },
    {
      "claim": {
        "id": "metering-heat-high",
        "label": "Highest main heat-output deviation",
        "value": 0.1,
        "unit": "%",
        "status": "observed",
        "period": "January–April 2026",
        "definition": "Difference between internal energy data and the calibrated field total: (internal − field) / field × 100.",
        "limitation": "January–April comparison in four systems. Main heat-output channels; available compressor comparisons cover three systems. National efficiency requires a representative sample and whole-system measurements.",
        "formula": null,
        "sources": [
          "bfe-heat-pump-metering-2026"
        ],
        "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17"
      },
      "research_observation": "HP01",
      "research_metric": "thermal_energy_deviation_percent_max",
      "scale": 1
    },
    {
      "claim": {
        "id": "metering-electric-low",
        "label": "Lowest compressor-energy deviation",
        "value": -10.5,
        "unit": "%",
        "status": "observed",
        "period": "January–April 2026",
        "definition": "Difference between internal energy data and the calibrated field total: (internal − field) / field × 100.",
        "limitation": "January–April comparison in four systems. Main heat-output channels; available compressor comparisons cover three systems. National efficiency requires a representative sample and whole-system measurements.",
        "formula": null,
        "sources": [
          "bfe-heat-pump-metering-2026"
        ],
        "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17"
      },
      "research_observation": "HP01",
      "research_metric": "electric_compressor_energy_deviation_percent_min",
      "scale": 1
    },
    {
      "claim": {
        "id": "metering-electric-high",
        "label": "Highest compressor-energy deviation",
        "value": -4.6,
        "unit": "%",
        "status": "observed",
        "period": "January–April 2026",
        "definition": "Difference between internal energy data and the calibrated field total: (internal − field) / field × 100.",
        "limitation": "January–April comparison in four systems. Main heat-output channels; available compressor comparisons cover three systems. National efficiency requires a representative sample and whole-system measurements.",
        "formula": null,
        "sources": [
          "bfe-heat-pump-metering-2026"
        ],
        "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17"
      },
      "research_observation": "HP01",
      "research_metric": "electric_compressor_energy_deviation_percent_max",
      "scale": 1
    },
    {
      "claim": {
        "id": "metering-f017-monthly",
        "label": "F017 heat-output deviation using monthly data",
        "value": -7.7,
        "unit": "%",
        "status": "observed",
        "period": "January–April 2026",
        "definition": "Monthly internal heat total compared with calibrated field measurements for the same unit whose minute data differ by −34.7%.",
        "limitation": "One system and data stream. The alternative polynomial heat estimate for another system is outside the main-channel range.",
        "formula": "Direct transcription: table 9, PDF p.19 (printed p.18), F017 / Q_dot_H (M).",
        "sources": [
          "bfe-heat-pump-metering-2026"
        ],
        "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17"
      },
      "research_observation": null,
      "research_metric": null,
      "scale": 1
    },
    {
      "claim": {
        "id": "ep2060-population-2050",
        "label": "EP2060 reference population input",
        "value": 10.3065125,
        "unit": "million residents",
        "status": "assumption",
        "period": "2050 scenario input",
        "definition": "Annual-average permanent resident population input shared by the two published workbook sheets.",
        "limitation": "BFS reference-scenario input. Electricity demand also depends on activity, equipment, efficiency and weather.",
        "formula": "Workbook BC13 = 10,306.5125 thousand; divide by 1,000 to express million residents. Both scenario sheets agree.",
        "sources": [
          "bfe-ep2060-workbook-2026",
          "bfe-ep2060-inputs-2026"
        ],
        "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17"
      },
      "research_observation": "EP01",
      "research_metric": "population_annual_average_thousands",
      "scale": 0.001
    },
    {
      "claim": {
        "id": "data-centres-2024",
        "label": "Data-centre electricity in the study scope",
        "value": 2.1,
        "unit": "TWh",
        "status": "estimate",
        "period": "2024",
        "definition": "Rounded estimate of annual electricity use from the report summary.",
        "limitation": "Study scope excludes small business server rooms and micro data centres from the matched comparison. Baseline electricity already includes these users; reconcile sector growth before adding any increment.",
        "formula": null,
        "sources": [
          "bfe-data-centres-2026"
        ],
        "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17"
      },
      "research_observation": "DC01",
      "research_metric": "estimated_demand_twh",
      "scale": 1
    },
    {
      "claim": {
        "id": "data-centres-2030-low",
        "label": "Lower 2030 data-centre case",
        "value": 2.5,
        "unit": "TWh",
        "status": "scenario",
        "period": "2030",
        "definition": "Annual electricity use in the study scenario, on its stated data-centre scope.",
        "limitation": "Study scope excludes small business server rooms and micro data centres from the matched comparison. Baseline electricity already includes these users; reconcile sector growth before adding any increment.",
        "formula": "Study case reproduced directly from PDF p.3 summary.",
        "sources": [
          "bfe-data-centres-2026"
        ],
        "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17"
      },
      "research_observation": "DC02",
      "research_metric": "scenario_low_twh",
      "scale": 1
    },
    {
      "claim": {
        "id": "data-centres-increment-low",
        "label": "Data-centre growth: lower 2030 data-centre case",
        "value": 0.4,
        "unit": "TWh",
        "status": "calculated",
        "period": "2024–2030",
        "definition": "Difference from the rounded 2.1 TWh study baseline.",
        "limitation": "Approximate arithmetic using rounded summary inputs. The increment is a study comparison; its overlap with activity growth in WattInfo’s model remains to be reconciled.",
        "formula": "2.5 − 2.1 = 0.4 TWh. No extrapolation to 2050.",
        "sources": [
          "bfe-data-centres-2026",
          "field-evidence-calculations"
        ],
        "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17"
      },
      "research_observation": null,
      "research_metric": null,
      "scale": 1
    },
    {
      "claim": {
        "id": "data-centres-2030-upper",
        "label": "Upper 2030 data-centre case",
        "value": 3.2,
        "unit": "TWh",
        "status": "scenario",
        "period": "2030",
        "definition": "Annual electricity use in the study scenario, on its stated data-centre scope.",
        "limitation": "Study scope excludes small business server rooms and micro data centres from the matched comparison. Baseline electricity already includes these users; reconcile sector growth before adding any increment.",
        "formula": "Study case reproduced directly from PDF p.3 summary.",
        "sources": [
          "bfe-data-centres-2026"
        ],
        "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17"
      },
      "research_observation": "DC02",
      "research_metric": "scenario_high_twh",
      "scale": 1
    },
    {
      "claim": {
        "id": "data-centres-increment-upper",
        "label": "Data-centre growth: upper 2030 data-centre case",
        "value": 1.1,
        "unit": "TWh",
        "status": "calculated",
        "period": "2024–2030",
        "definition": "Difference from the rounded 2.1 TWh study baseline.",
        "limitation": "Approximate arithmetic using rounded summary inputs. The increment is a study comparison; its overlap with activity growth in WattInfo’s model remains to be reconciled.",
        "formula": "3.2 − 2.1 = 1.1 TWh. No extrapolation to 2050.",
        "sources": [
          "bfe-data-centres-2026",
          "field-evidence-calculations"
        ],
        "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17"
      },
      "research_observation": null,
      "research_metric": null,
      "scale": 1
    },
    {
      "claim": {
        "id": "data-centres-2030-high",
        "label": "Separate high 2030 data-centre case",
        "value": 3.5,
        "unit": "TWh",
        "status": "scenario",
        "period": "2030",
        "definition": "Annual electricity use in the study scenario, on its stated data-centre scope.",
        "limitation": "Study scope excludes small business server rooms and micro data centres from the matched comparison. Baseline electricity already includes these users; reconcile sector growth before adding any increment.",
        "formula": "Study case reproduced directly from PDF p.3 summary.",
        "sources": [
          "bfe-data-centres-2026"
        ],
        "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17"
      },
      "research_observation": "DC02",
      "research_metric": "additional_high_case_twh",
      "scale": 1
    },
    {
      "claim": {
        "id": "data-centres-increment-high",
        "label": "Data-centre growth: separate high 2030 data-centre case",
        "value": 1.4,
        "unit": "TWh",
        "status": "calculated",
        "period": "2024–2030",
        "definition": "Difference from the rounded 2.1 TWh study baseline.",
        "limitation": "Approximate arithmetic using rounded summary inputs. The increment is a study comparison; its overlap with activity growth in WattInfo’s model remains to be reconciled.",
        "formula": "3.5 − 2.1 = 1.4 TWh. No extrapolation to 2050.",
        "sources": [
          "bfe-data-centres-2026",
          "field-evidence-calculations"
        ],
        "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17"
      },
      "research_observation": null,
      "research_metric": null,
      "scale": 1
    },
    {
      "claim": {
        "id": "solar-survey-battery-stock-2025",
        "label": "Battery capacity in the solar-industry survey",
        "value": 1.380878,
        "unit": "GWh",
        "status": "estimate",
        "period": "End of 2025",
        "definition": "Estimated installed stock across the survey’s lithium-ion, salt and other battery categories.",
        "limitation": "Solar-industry survey and retirement model. Reported stock capacity; deliverable grid energy needs usable-capacity, power, charge-state and participation data.",
        "formula": null,
        "sources": [
          "bfe-solar-storage-2025"
        ],
        "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17"
      },
      "research_observation": "ST01",
      "research_metric": "total_gwh",
      "scale": 1
    },
    {
      "claim": {
        "id": "solar-survey-battery-systems-2025",
        "label": "Battery systems in the solar-industry survey",
        "value": 93423,
        "unit": "systems",
        "status": "estimate",
        "period": "End of 2025",
        "definition": "Estimated system count using sales and retirement cohorts.",
        "limitation": "Solar-industry survey and retirement model. Reported stock capacity; deliverable grid energy needs usable-capacity, power, charge-state and participation data.",
        "formula": null,
        "sources": [
          "bfe-solar-storage-2025"
        ],
        "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17"
      },
      "research_observation": "ST01",
      "research_metric": "total_systems",
      "scale": 1
    },
    {
      "claim": {
        "id": "solar-generation-2025",
        "label": "Solar electricity generated in Switzerland",
        "value": 7.948,
        "unit": "TWh",
        "status": "estimate",
        "period": "2025",
        "definition": "Annual PV production estimated from a metered sample and the fleet model.",
        "limitation": "Generation varies through the year. The growing fleet’s year-end capacity is a separate measurement basis.",
        "formula": "7948 × 0.001 = 7.948 TWh; unit conversion from the source value.",
        "sources": [
          "bfe-solar-storage-2025"
        ],
        "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17"
      },
      "research_observation": "PV01",
      "research_metric": "annual_generation_gwh_rounded",
      "scale": 0.001
    },
    {
      "claim": {
        "id": "solar-capacity-2025",
        "label": "Installed solar power at year-end",
        "value": 9.4986,
        "unit": "GW",
        "status": "estimate",
        "period": "End of 2025",
        "definition": "Estimated PV fleet capacity at the end of the reporting year.",
        "limitation": "End-year capacity differs from capacity available through the year. Use time-weighted capacity for a fleet capacity factor.",
        "formula": "9498.6 × 0.001 = 9.4986 GW; unit conversion from the source value.",
        "sources": [
          "bfe-solar-storage-2025"
        ],
        "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17"
      },
      "research_observation": "PV01",
      "research_metric": "end_year_capacity_mw",
      "scale": 0.001
    },
    {
      "claim": {
        "id": "v2x-trial-cars",
        "label": "Cars in the V2X Suisse trial",
        "value": 50,
        "unit": "cars",
        "status": "observed",
        "period": "2021–2024 trial",
        "definition": "Bidirectional cars in the Mobility sharing-fleet demonstration.",
        "limitation": "Demonstrated grid-service capability under trial conditions. Available vehicles, chargers and driving requirements constrain delivery.",
        "formula": null,
        "sources": [
          "v2x-suisse-2024"
        ],
        "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17"
      },
      "research_observation": "V2X01",
      "research_metric": "cars",
      "scale": 1
    },
    {
      "claim": {
        "id": "v2x-potential-service-revenue",
        "label": "Potential V2X grid-service revenue",
        "value": 600,
        "unit": "CHF/vehicle/year",
        "status": "scenario",
        "period": "2024 final report",
        "definition": "Approximate gross potential from ancillary services in the study’s business cases.",
        "limitation": "Expected revenues fell below the additional V2X costs in the studied cases. Gross revenue still has to cover equipment, operation and other costs.",
        "formula": "Study case reproduced directly from PDF pp.3–5 executive summaries.",
        "sources": [
          "v2x-suisse-2024"
        ],
        "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17"
      },
      "research_observation": "V2X01",
      "research_metric": "potential_ancillary_revenue_chf_per_vehicle_year_approx",
      "scale": 1
    },
    {
      "claim": {
        "id": "morel-tested-flexibility",
        "label": "Additional flexibility tested at Mörel",
        "value": 3,
        "unit": "MW in either direction",
        "status": "observed",
        "period": "2026 final report",
        "definition": "Approximately ±3 MW supported by the reported field tests, under the tested hydraulic conditions.",
        "limitation": "Short-term power adjustment. Duration, inflow, water levels and air-entry risks limit operation; this gives no annual generation increment.",
        "formula": null,
        "sources": [
          "smallflex-goms-2026"
        ],
        "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17"
      },
      "research_observation": "HYDRO02",
      "research_metric": "additional_flexibility_mw_plus_minus_approx",
      "scale": 1
    }
  ],
  "ep2060_cells": [
    {
      "source_id": "bfe-12772",
      "sheet": "Rahmendaten_WWB & CO2G",
      "cell": "BC13",
      "year_cell": "BC12",
      "year": 2050,
      "metric": "resident_population_annual_average",
      "source_label": "Bevölkerung",
      "unit": "Tsd., Jahresmittel",
      "value": 10306.5125,
      "upstream_source_as_stated": "Bundesamt für Statistik (BFS), 2025. Szenarien zur Bevölkerungsentwicklung der Schweiz 2025 –2055. ",
      "evidence_kind": "scenario_input_not_forecast"
    },
    {
      "source_id": "bfe-12772",
      "sheet": "Rahmendaten_ZERO",
      "cell": "BC13",
      "year_cell": "BC12",
      "year": 2050,
      "metric": "resident_population_annual_average",
      "source_label": "Bevölkerung",
      "unit": "Tsd., Jahresmittel",
      "value": 10306.5125,
      "upstream_source_as_stated": "Bundesamt für Statistik (BFS), 2025. Szenarien zur Bevölkerungsentwicklung der Schweiz 2025 –2055. ",
      "evidence_kind": "scenario_input_not_forecast"
    }
  ],
  "additional_transcription": {
    "source": "bfe-heat-pump-metering-2026",
    "locator": "PDF p.19 (printed p.18), table 9",
    "system": "F017",
    "metric": "Q_dot_H (M)",
    "value": -7.7,
    "unit": "%",
    "review": "Checked against rendered original table; main minute-series deviation is −34.7%."
  },
  "inputs": [
    {
      "path": "data/bfe-aramis-2026-09-17/source-catalog.json",
      "sha256": "901977312671347799fbaba368bb312a17397a575f22846fd2787720ba798787",
      "bytes": 88115
    },
    {
      "path": "data/bfe-aramis-2026-09-17/selected-observations.json",
      "sha256": "489ad04e3005fad10b8646db02eb43b826045ea1f2bd31b8bb4ef2a9eb17c256",
      "bytes": 12373
    },
    {
      "path": "data/bfe-aramis-2026-09-17/ep2060-demographic-inputs.json",
      "sha256": "341751f5c2f1093c7d763c9fd172dfef4875ef3fa16901e9c3bf84dadec40d86",
      "bytes": 69101
    }
  ]
}