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"mapping": "services", "outcome": "high_later_possible", "total_dc_twh": 3.5, "embedded_dc_twh": 2.202692307692308, "additional_twh": 1.297307692307692, "final_demand_twh": 74.77488471428254, "status": "conditional_mapping_sensitivity", "horizon": "Hold the published outcome constant beyond 2030; no further growth forecast" }, { "year": 2035, "mapping": "industry", "outcome": "lower", "total_dc_twh": 2.5, "embedded_dc_twh": 2.118415384615385, "additional_twh": 0.38158461538461497, "final_demand_twh": 73.85916163735945, "status": "conditional_mapping_sensitivity", "horizon": "Hold the published outcome constant beyond 2030; no further growth forecast" }, { "year": 2035, "mapping": "industry", "outcome": "best_guess", "total_dc_twh": 3.2, "embedded_dc_twh": 2.118415384615385, "additional_twh": 1.0815846153846151, "final_demand_twh": 74.55916163735945, "status": "conditional_mapping_sensitivity", "horizon": "Hold the published outcome constant beyond 2030; no further growth forecast" }, { "year": 2035, "mapping": "industry", "outcome": "high_later_possible", "total_dc_twh": 3.5, "embedded_dc_twh": 2.118415384615385, "additional_twh": 1.381584615384615, "final_demand_twh": 74.85916163735945, "status": "conditional_mapping_sensitivity", "horizon": "Hold the published outcome constant beyond 2030; no further growth forecast" }, { "year": 2050, "mapping": "services", "outcome": "lower", "total_dc_twh": 2.5, "embedded_dc_twh": 2.3400000000000003, "additional_twh": 0.1599999999999997, "final_demand_twh": 93.52564180546513, "status": "conditional_mapping_sensitivity", "horizon": "Hold the published outcome constant beyond 2030; no further growth forecast" }, { "year": 2050, "mapping": "services", "outcome": "best_guess", "total_dc_twh": 3.2, "embedded_dc_twh": 2.3400000000000003, "additional_twh": 0.8599999999999999, "final_demand_twh": 94.22564180546513, "status": "conditional_mapping_sensitivity", "horizon": "Hold the published outcome constant beyond 2030; no further growth forecast" }, { "year": 2050, "mapping": "services", "outcome": "high_later_possible", "total_dc_twh": 3.5, "embedded_dc_twh": 2.3400000000000003, "additional_twh": 1.1599999999999997, "final_demand_twh": 94.52564180546513, "status": "conditional_mapping_sensitivity", "horizon": "Hold the published outcome constant beyond 2030; no further growth forecast" }, { "year": 2050, "mapping": "industry", "outcome": "lower", "total_dc_twh": 2.5, "embedded_dc_twh": 2.1528, "additional_twh": 0.34719999999999995, "final_demand_twh": 93.71284180546513, "status": "conditional_mapping_sensitivity", "horizon": "Hold the published outcome constant beyond 2030; no further growth forecast" }, { "year": 2050, "mapping": "industry", "outcome": "best_guess", "total_dc_twh": 3.2, "embedded_dc_twh": 2.1528, "additional_twh": 1.0472000000000001, "final_demand_twh": 94.41284180546513, "status": "conditional_mapping_sensitivity", "horizon": "Hold the published outcome constant beyond 2030; no further growth forecast" }, { "year": 2050, "mapping": "industry", "outcome": "high_later_possible", "total_dc_twh": 3.5, "embedded_dc_twh": 2.1528, "additional_twh": 1.3472, "final_demand_twh": 94.71284180546513, "status": "conditional_mapping_sensitivity", "horizon": "Hold the published outcome constant beyond 2030; no further growth forecast" } ], "dc_baseline_twh": 2.08, "dc_formula": "Extra = published DC scenario minus 2.08 × interpolated activity × interpolated retained-electricity intensity. Assign all embedded data-centre electricity to services or industry separately as mapping sensitivities. Retain the remainder of sector demand.", "limitation": "The precise allocation across sector/end-use/cooling components is unresolved. These are conditional mappings, not a statistical confidence interval or a calibrated central forecast. Existing small server rooms outside the study remain in the rest of demand. No further data-centre growth after 2030 is estimated. The 2025 test is a comparison against a newly applied official annual total, not an out-of-sample forecasting claim or validation of 2050 equipment assumptions." }, "thermal": { "as_of": "2026-09-17", "annual_electricity_saved_mwh": null, "winter_electricity_saved_mwh": null, "electricity_auxiliaries_mwh": null, "measured_heatpump_cop": null, "id": "hoje-taastrup", "name": "Høje Taastrup pit thermal storage", "observation": "2024", "heat_source": "Connected district-heating system, including CHP; heat dispatch across existing networks", "storage_capacity_mwh_th": 3300, "power_mw_th": 30, "volume_m3": 70880, "design_temperature_degC": [ 45, 90 ], "measured_temperature_degC_approx": [ 44, 90 ], "charge_mwh_th": 34044, "discharge_mwh_th": 29917, "inventory_change_mwh_th": 529, "loss_mwh_th": 3598, "equivalent_discharge_cycles": 9, "reported_efficiency_pct": 89, "observed_duration_hours": null, "peak_electricity_reduction_kw": null, "capex_eur_million": 12.04, "subsidy_eur_million": 1.34, "net_owner_capex_eur_million": 10.7, "storage_only_capex_eur_million": 6, "price_basis": "Implementation-year prices; storage built2020–22; full project table published2025", "opex_eur_per_year": 160000, "opex_evidence": "estimate", "income_eur_per_year": 1050000, "income_evidence": "modelled, not measured financial outturn", "expected_lifetime_years_min": 20, "owner": "District-heating utilities; local network business case", "counterfactual": "Dispatch of CHP and expensive peak boilers; not a measured electric-resistance replacement", "maintenance": "Liner/lid, leaks, water quality, pumps and exchangers; measured annual balance does not establish lifetime cost", "constraints": "Existing heat network, adequate summer/winter load, land and suitable groundwater/soil; system ramp limit0.2–0.5MW/min", "evidence_class": "commercial_field_heat_measurements_plus_project_costs_and_modelled_finance", "decision_class": "action_now", "recommendation": "Screen comparable Swiss heat networks using metered balances and owner bids; no national winter-electricity credit yet", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "dtu-htes2024-backend", "locator": "PDFpp6,15; Table4" }, { "source_id": "dtu-htes-study", "locator": "Eq1 andTable4" }, { "source_id": "dea-thermal-2025", "locator": "pp17,21,24,35" } ] }, "claims": [ { "id": "weather-screen-energy", "label": "Additional winter delivery across thirteen weather stress cases", "value": 3.8, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand; 2011/12–2023/24 weather", "definition": "Largest winter gap rounded upward to 0.1 TWh.", "formula": "ceil(max(winter_shortfall_gwh) / 100) / 10 across thirteen matched long-outage cases.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-screen-power", "label": "Additional available power across thirteen weather stress cases", "value": 2.3, "unit": "GW", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand; 2011/12–2023/24 weather", "definition": "Largest hourly annual power gap rounded upward to 0.1 GW.", "formula": "ceil(max(unserved_peak_gw) × 10) / 10 across thirteen matched long-outage cases.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "growth-screen-energy", "label": "Starting supply request including the separate data-centre allowance: energy", "value": 4.2, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 package and three growth sensitivities", "definition": "Largest winter requirement across thirteen base weather cases plus three data-centre sensitivities, rounded upward.", "formula": "ceil(max(screen winter_shortfall_gwh) / 100) / 10", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.The growth cases assume the study central 2030 data-centre total stays at 3.2 TWh through 2035, mapped to retained service demand. Only 2012, 2017 and 2022 receive the added-load test; this is a preliminary offer brief, not a full growth/weather adequacy assessment.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "growth-screen-power", "label": "Starting supply request including the separate data-centre allowance: power", "value": 2.5, "unit": "GW", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 package and three growth sensitivities", "definition": "Largest hourly requirement across the same cases, rounded upward.", "formula": "ceil(max(screen unserved_peak_gw) × 10) / 10", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.The growth cases assume the study central 2030 data-centre total stays at 3.2 TWh through 2035, mapped to retained service demand. Only 2012, 2017 and 2022 receive the added-load test; this is a preliminary offer brief, not a full growth/weather adequacy assessment.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "dc-demand-2035-extra", "label": "2035 annual end-use demand with separate data-centre allowance: extra", "value": 0.9973076923076922, "unit": "TWh/year", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 with 2030 central study DC total held constant", "definition": "Reference-weather annual consumption; either the additional allowance or total including it, as labelled.", "formula": "Extra = published DC scenario minus 2.08 × interpolated activity × interpolated retained-electricity intensity. Assign all embedded data-centre electricity to services or industry separately as mapping sensitivities. Retain the remainder of sector demand.", "limitation": "The precise allocation across sector/end-use/cooling components is unresolved. These are conditional mappings, not a statistical confidence interval or a calibrated central forecast. Existing small server rooms outside the study remain in the rest of demand. No further data-centre growth after 2030 is estimated. The 2025 test is a comparison against a newly applied official annual total, not an out-of-sample forecasting claim or validation of 2050 equipment assumptions.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks", "bfe-data-centres-2026" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "dc-demand-2035-total", "label": "2035 annual end-use demand with separate data-centre allowance: total", "value": 74.47488471428254, "unit": "TWh/year", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 with 2030 central study DC total held constant", "definition": "Reference-weather annual consumption; either the additional allowance or total including it, as labelled.", "formula": "Extra = published DC scenario minus 2.08 × interpolated activity × interpolated retained-electricity intensity. Assign all embedded data-centre electricity to services or industry separately as mapping sensitivities. Retain the remainder of sector demand.", "limitation": "The precise allocation across sector/end-use/cooling components is unresolved. These are conditional mappings, not a statistical confidence interval or a calibrated central forecast. Existing small server rooms outside the study remain in the rest of demand. No further data-centre growth after 2030 is estimated. The 2025 test is a comparison against a newly applied official annual total, not an out-of-sample forecasting claim or validation of 2050 equipment assumptions.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks", "bfe-data-centres-2026" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-routine-max-winter", "label": "Largest winter gap with routine nuclear assumptions", "value": 1.5009337340832514, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand; thirteen historical weather years", "definition": "Maximum winter requirement across the same years without the exceptional long outage.", "formula": "max(routine winter_shortfall_gwh) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.Routine still includes scheduled maintenance and the 98% availability allowance.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-max-summer", "label": "Largest summer gap in the expanded fixed-charging cases", "value": 58.10535740623973, "unit": "GWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand; April–September portions of thirteen weather years", "definition": "Maximum summer shortfall in the long-outage base cases; outside the winter supply quantity.", "formula": "max(summer_shortfall_gwh).", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2012-fixed-outage", "label": "Winter gap: 2011/2012 weather, long outage", "value": 2.5556857744809753, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2012-fixed-routine", "label": "Winter gap: 2011/2012 weather, routine operation", "value": 0.3222471802230697, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2013-fixed-outage", "label": "Winter gap: 2012/2013 weather, long outage", "value": 2.605804847945277, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2013-fixed-routine", "label": "Winter gap: 2012/2013 weather, routine operation", "value": 0.20414966381392294, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2014-fixed-outage", "label": "Winter gap: 2013/2014 weather, long outage", "value": 0.7054460884916873, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2014-fixed-routine", "label": "Winter gap: 2013/2014 weather, routine operation", "value": 0.0, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2015-fixed-outage", "label": "Winter gap: 2014/2015 weather, long outage", "value": 0.5780224003499542, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2015-fixed-routine", "label": "Winter gap: 2014/2015 weather, routine operation", "value": 0.0, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2016-fixed-outage", "label": "Winter gap: 2015/2016 weather, long outage", "value": 1.5695068864061137, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2016-fixed-routine", "label": "Winter gap: 2015/2016 weather, routine operation", "value": 0.0, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2017-fixed-outage", "label": "Winter gap: 2016/2017 weather, long outage", "value": 3.714540455792326, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2017-fixed-routine", "label": "Winter gap: 2016/2017 weather, routine operation", "value": 1.5009337340832514, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2018-fixed-outage", "label": "Winter gap: 2017/2018 weather, long outage", "value": 2.8217871608245577, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2018-fixed-routine", "label": "Winter gap: 2017/2018 weather, routine operation", "value": 0.4244667365917269, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2019-fixed-outage", "label": "Winter gap: 2018/2019 weather, long outage", "value": 1.4231043065184272, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2019-fixed-routine", "label": "Winter gap: 2018/2019 weather, routine operation", "value": 0.0, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2020-fixed-outage", "label": "Winter gap: 2019/2020 weather, long outage", "value": 0.0, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2020-fixed-routine", "label": "Winter gap: 2019/2020 weather, routine operation", "value": 0.0, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2021-fixed-outage", "label": "Winter gap: 2020/2021 weather, long outage", "value": 1.4430262444818776, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2021-fixed-routine", "label": "Winter gap: 2020/2021 weather, routine operation", "value": 0.0, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2022-fixed-outage", "label": "Winter gap: 2021/2022 weather, long outage", "value": 2.2587349184467915, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2022-fixed-routine", "label": "Winter gap: 2021/2022 weather, routine operation", "value": 0.11812385388020687, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2023-fixed-outage", "label": "Winter gap: 2022/2023 weather, long outage", "value": 1.174495575218196, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2023-fixed-routine", "label": "Winter gap: 2022/2023 weather, routine operation", "value": 0.0, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2024-fixed-outage", "label": "Winter gap: 2023/2024 weather, long outage", "value": 0.0, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2024-fixed-routine", "label": "Winter gap: 2023/2024 weather, routine operation", "value": 0.0, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather", "definition": "Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2012-dc-winter", "label": "Winter gap with the data-centre allowance, 2012 weather", "value": 2.989449456884814, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand with 2030 study central DC total held constant", "definition": "Long-outage case adds only demand beyond the already-grown embedded service baseline; extra load spread uniformly.", "formula": "2035 addition = 3.2 − 2.08 × interpolated services activity × interpolated services intensity; hourly rerun.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.All-services mapping and a flat 3.2 TWh after 2030 are assumptions, not a 2035 forecast.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2012-noimports", "label": "Annual gap with no imports, 2012 weather", "value": 10.83858581396328, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical weather with zero imports", "definition": "Remaining annual electricity gap with the long reactor outage and zero cross-border imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.Import limit is zero in this case. No event probability is assigned.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2017-dc-winter", "label": "Winter gap with the data-centre allowance, 2017 weather", "value": 4.187011727037884, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand with 2030 study central DC total held constant", "definition": "Long-outage case adds only demand beyond the already-grown embedded service baseline; extra load spread uniformly.", "formula": "2035 addition = 3.2 − 2.08 × interpolated services activity × interpolated services intensity; hourly rerun.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.All-services mapping and a flat 3.2 TWh after 2030 are assumptions, not a 2035 forecast.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2017-noimports", "label": "Annual gap with no imports, 2017 weather", "value": 12.268250483558965, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical weather with zero imports", "definition": "Remaining annual electricity gap with the long reactor outage and zero cross-border imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.Import limit is zero in this case. No event probability is assigned.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2022-dc-winter", "label": "Winter gap with the data-centre allowance, 2022 weather", "value": 2.705163901045925, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand with 2030 study central DC total held constant", "definition": "Long-outage case adds only demand beyond the already-grown embedded service baseline; extra load spread uniformly.", "formula": "2035 addition = 3.2 − 2.08 × interpolated services activity × interpolated services intensity; hourly rerun.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.All-services mapping and a flat 3.2 TWh after 2030 are assumptions, not a 2035 forecast.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "weather-2022-noimports", "label": "Annual gap with no imports, 2022 weather", "value": 10.869326645223309, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2035 demand and historical weather with zero imports", "definition": "Remaining annual electricity gap with the long reactor outage and zero cross-border imports.", "formula": "sum(hourly unserved) / 1000.", "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.Import limit is zero in this case. No event probability is assigned.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "demand-check-2025-model", "label": "Unchanged demand path at 2025", "value": 58.95103937219433, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2025", "definition": "Existing central path evaluated at 2025, retaining 2024 annual weather assumptions.", "formula": "Run model.demand.calculate at year=2025 with original parameters.", "limitation": "One-year comparison; no weather or realized replacement recalibration. The original model was built after 2025.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "demand-check-2025-observed", "label": "Recorded national final electricity in 2025", "value": 57.97, "unit": "TWh", "status": "observed", "period": "2025", "definition": "National final electricity, after network losses; pumping already removed from generation.", "formula": "BFE workbook T25!H71 / 1000.", "limitation": "Separate from narrower survey or Swissgrid withdrawal boundaries.", "sources": [ "bfe-energy-balance-2025" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "demand-check-2025-error", "label": "Central path above recorded 2025 final consumption", "value": 1.6923225326795466, "unit": "%", "status": "calculated", "period": "2025 comparison", "definition": "Relative difference of unchanged model path and official final electricity.", "formula": "(model / observed − 1) × 100.", "limitation": "A close annual total does not validate 2050 end-use assumptions.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks", "bfe-energy-balance-2025" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "demand-population-check", "label": "2050 demand using the EP2060 population input", "value": 92.95475898246112, "unit": "TWh", "status": "scenario", "period": "2050", "definition": "Original central model with only population changed to 10.3065125 million.", "formula": "calculate(..., population_million=10.3065125).", "limitation": "Other sector activity, electrification and efficiency assumptions unchanged.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks", "bfe-ep2060-workbook-2026" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "demand-population-difference", "label": "Demand change from the population sensitivity", "value": -0.410882823004016, "unit": "TWh", "status": "calculated", "period": "2050", "definition": "Population sensitivity minus original 93.3656 TWh reference.", "formula": "population_sensitivity_2050_twh − reference_2050_twh.", "limitation": "Only the household population dependence represented in this model changes.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks", "bfe-ep2060-workbook-2026" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "dc-extra-lower", "label": "Extra DC demand after embedded service growth: lower", "value": 0.3507692307692305, "unit": "TWh/year", "status": "scenario", "period": "2030; high case may arrive later", "definition": "Increment above the activity-scaled national model under an all-services retained-electricity mapping.", "formula": "Extra = published DC scenario minus 2.08 × interpolated activity × interpolated retained-electricity intensity. Assign all embedded data-centre electricity to services or industry separately as mapping sensitivities. Retain the remainder of sector demand.", "limitation": "The precise allocation across sector/end-use/cooling components is unresolved. These are conditional mappings, not a statistical confidence interval or a calibrated central forecast. Existing small server rooms outside the study remain in the rest of demand. No further data-centre growth after 2030 is estimated. The 2025 test is a comparison against a newly applied official annual total, not an out-of-sample forecasting claim or validation of 2050 equipment assumptions.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks", "bfe-data-centres-2026" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "dc-extra-best_guess", "label": "Extra DC demand after embedded service growth: best_guess", "value": 1.0507692307692307, "unit": "TWh/year", "status": "scenario", "period": "2030; high case may arrive later", "definition": "Increment above the activity-scaled national model under an all-services retained-electricity mapping.", "formula": "Extra = published DC scenario minus 2.08 × interpolated activity × interpolated retained-electricity intensity. Assign all embedded data-centre electricity to services or industry separately as mapping sensitivities. Retain the remainder of sector demand.", "limitation": "The precise allocation across sector/end-use/cooling components is unresolved. These are conditional mappings, not a statistical confidence interval or a calibrated central forecast. Existing small server rooms outside the study remain in the rest of demand. No further data-centre growth after 2030 is estimated. The 2025 test is a comparison against a newly applied official annual total, not an out-of-sample forecasting claim or validation of 2050 equipment assumptions.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks", "bfe-data-centres-2026" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "dc-extra-high_later_possible", "label": "Extra DC demand after embedded service growth: high_later_possible", "value": 1.3507692307692305, "unit": "TWh/year", "status": "scenario", "period": "2030; high case may arrive later", "definition": "Increment above the activity-scaled national model under an all-services retained-electricity mapping.", "formula": "Extra = published DC scenario minus 2.08 × interpolated activity × interpolated retained-electricity intensity. Assign all embedded data-centre electricity to services or industry separately as mapping sensitivities. Retain the remainder of sector demand.", "limitation": "The precise allocation across sector/end-use/cooling components is unresolved. These are conditional mappings, not a statistical confidence interval or a calibrated central forecast. Existing small server rooms outside the study remain in the rest of demand. No further data-centre growth after 2030 is estimated. The 2025 test is a comparison against a newly applied official annual total, not an out-of-sample forecasting claim or validation of 2050 equipment assumptions.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks", "bfe-data-centres-2026" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "dc-embedded-2030", "label": "Data-centre demand already represented by service growth", "value": 2.1492307692307695, "unit": "TWh/year", "status": "scenario", "period": "2030", "definition": "Matched 2.08 TWh estimate multiplied by interpolated model activity and retained-electricity intensity.", "formula": "2.08 × (1 + .25 × 6/26) × (1 − .1 × 6/26).", "limitation": "The precise allocation across sector/end-use/cooling components is unresolved. These are conditional mappings, not a statistical confidence interval or a calibrated central forecast. Existing small server rooms outside the study remain in the rest of demand. No further data-centre growth after 2030 is estimated. The 2025 test is a comparison against a newly applied official annual total, not an out-of-sample forecasting claim or validation of 2050 equipment assumptions.", "sources": [ "archive-model-checks", "bfe-data-centres-2026" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "dc-high-timing", "label": "High data-centre case, with flexible arrival date", "value": 3.5, "unit": "TWh/year", "status": "scenario", "period": "2030 or later", "definition": "Study upper sensitivity; printed page 127 explicitly allows arrival after 2030.", "formula": "Published conditional study total, no extrapolation.", "limitation": "Author sensitivity, not a promised commissioning or utilization date.", "sources": [ "bfe-data-centres-2026", "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "heat-store-capacity", "label": "Høje Taastrup: capacity", "value": 3.3000000000000003, "unit": "GWh heat", "status": "estimate", "period": "2024 heat balance; construction 2020–22 cost reported in 2025", "definition": "Single district-heating store. Thermal energy or project-cost boundary as labelled.", "formula": "Thermal evidence field storage_capacity_mwh_th × 0.001.", "limitation": "Heat cannot be treated as deliverable electricity. Danish implementation-year costs, no Swiss quote or national savings credit. Capacity calculated from water volume and temperature window.", "sources": [ "dtu-heat-storage-2024", "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "heat-store-charged", "label": "Høje Taastrup: charged", "value": 34.044000000000004, "unit": "GWh heat", "status": "observed", "period": "2024 heat balance; construction 2020–22 cost reported in 2025", "definition": "Single district-heating store. Thermal energy or project-cost boundary as labelled.", "formula": "Thermal evidence field charge_mwh_th × 0.001.", "limitation": "Heat cannot be treated as deliverable electricity. Danish implementation-year costs, no Swiss quote or national savings credit. Capacity calculated from water volume and temperature window.", "sources": [ "dtu-heat-storage-2024", "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "heat-store-delivered", "label": "Høje Taastrup: delivered", "value": 29.917, "unit": "GWh heat", "status": "observed", "period": "2024 heat balance; construction 2020–22 cost reported in 2025", "definition": "Single district-heating store. Thermal energy or project-cost boundary as labelled.", "formula": "Thermal evidence field discharge_mwh_th × 0.001.", "limitation": "Heat cannot be treated as deliverable electricity. Danish implementation-year costs, no Swiss quote or national savings credit. Capacity calculated from water volume and temperature window.", "sources": [ "dtu-heat-storage-2024", "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "heat-store-loss", "label": "Høje Taastrup: loss", "value": 3.598, "unit": "GWh heat", "status": "observed", "period": "2024 heat balance; construction 2020–22 cost reported in 2025", "definition": "Single district-heating store. Thermal energy or project-cost boundary as labelled.", "formula": "Thermal evidence field loss_mwh_th × 0.001.", "limitation": "Heat cannot be treated as deliverable electricity. Danish implementation-year costs, no Swiss quote or national savings credit. Capacity calculated from water volume and temperature window.", "sources": [ "dtu-heat-storage-2024", "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "heat-store-inventory", "label": "Høje Taastrup: inventory", "value": 0.529, "unit": "GWh heat", "status": "observed", "period": "2024 heat balance; construction 2020–22 cost reported in 2025", "definition": "Single district-heating store. Thermal energy or project-cost boundary as labelled.", "formula": "Thermal evidence field inventory_change_mwh_th × 0.001.", "limitation": "Heat cannot be treated as deliverable electricity. Danish implementation-year costs, no Swiss quote or national savings credit. Capacity calculated from water volume and temperature window.", "sources": [ "dtu-heat-storage-2024", "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "heat-store-cost", "label": "Høje Taastrup: cost", "value": 12.04, "unit": "million EUR", "status": "observed", "period": "2024 heat balance; construction 2020–22 cost reported in 2025", "definition": "Single district-heating store. Full-project amount before grants.", "formula": "Thermal evidence field capex_eur_million × 1.", "limitation": "Heat cannot be treated as deliverable electricity. Danish implementation-year costs, no Swiss quote or national savings credit. Capacity calculated from water volume and temperature window.", "sources": [ "dea-heat-storage-costs-2025", "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "heat-store-grant", "label": "Høje Taastrup: grant", "value": 1.34, "unit": "million EUR", "status": "observed", "period": "2024 heat balance; construction 2020–22 cost reported in 2025", "definition": "Single district-heating store. Thermal energy or project-cost boundary as labelled.", "formula": "Thermal evidence field subsidy_eur_million × 1.", "limitation": "Heat cannot be treated as deliverable electricity. Danish implementation-year costs, no Swiss quote or national savings credit. Capacity calculated from water volume and temperature window.", "sources": [ "dea-heat-storage-costs-2025", "archive-model-checks" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "bieudron-overhaul-months", "label": "Approximate Bieudron overhaul duration per generating unit", "value": 9, "unit": "months per unit", "status": "estimate", "period": "Operator programme reported 15 July 2026", "definition": "Approximate duration of a major overhaul for one generating unit; work is staged across the plant.", "formula": "Operator page 1, duration bullet.", "limitation": "Maintenance programme at one plant, not a uniform annual hydro-outage assumption.", "sources": [ "bieudron-overhaul-2026" ], "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18" }, { "id": "bieudron-overhaul-investment", "label": "Bieudron overhaul programme investment", "value": 54.4, "unit": "million CHF", "status": "estimate", "period": "Programme reported 15 July 2026", "definition": "Reported investment for the complete staged overhaul programme, in 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thirteen fixed-charging weather tests as a starting supply screen; keep data-centre growth and import loss as separate sensitivities.", "The selected historical years are a sample, not probabilities. All use future demand and a hypothetical outage; results are not historical blackouts.", "Keep the central 2050 reference while separating prospective load additions. Population sensitivity is small compared with equipment, efficiency and activity assumptions.", "Support viable heat-network storage and controls, counting heat service and owner costs. No national electricity saving is credited without a counterfactual and site mapping.", "Data-centre high-case timing is qualified by printed p127; study counts and sector/end-use allocation remain estimates." ], "limitation": "Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days." }