{ "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17", "references": [ { "unit": "FUQING-5", "design": "HPR1000", "country": "CN", "status": "Operational", "net_mwe": 1075, "gross_mwe": 1161, "first_concrete_pris": "2015-05-07", "first_grid": "2020-11-27", "commercial_pris": "2021-01-30", "construction_to_grid_years": 5.561, "construction_to_commercial_years": 5.736, "operator": "CNNC Fujian Fuqing Nuclear Power Co., LTD", "supplier": "Nuclear Power Institute of China", "source_id": "pris-api-CN", "locator": "items[id=937]", "retrieved_cutoff": "2026-09-17", "evidence_class": "international_database_reported", "decision_class": "conditional_scenario", "note": "PRIS milestones preserved verbatim; operator milestone differences in milestone-crosschecks.json. No Swiss delivery inference.", "claim_id": "build-years-fuqing-5", "country_label": "China", "display_name": "Fuqing 5", "exact_years": 5.735797399041752 }, { "unit": "BARAKAH-1", "design": "APR-1400", "country": "AE", "status": "Operational", "net_mwe": 1337, "gross_mwe": 1417, "first_concrete_pris": "2012-07-19", "first_grid": "2020-08-19", "commercial_pris": "2021-04-01", "construction_to_grid_years": 8.085, "construction_to_commercial_years": 8.701, "operator": "Nawah Energy Company", "supplier": "Korea Electric Power Corporation", "source_id": "pris-api-AE", "locator": "items[id=1050]", "retrieved_cutoff": "2026-09-17", "evidence_class": "international_database_reported", "decision_class": "conditional_scenario", "note": "PRIS milestones preserved verbatim; operator milestone differences in milestone-crosschecks.json. No Swiss delivery inference.", "claim_id": "build-years-barakah-1", "country_label": "United Arab Emirates", "display_name": "Barakah 1", "exact_years": 8.700889801505818 }, { "unit": "TAISHAN-1", "design": "EPR-1750", "country": "CN", "status": "Operational", "net_mwe": 1660, "gross_mwe": 1750, "first_concrete_pris": "2009-11-18", "first_grid": "2018-06-29", "commercial_pris": "2018-12-13", "construction_to_grid_years": 8.611, "construction_to_commercial_years": 9.068, "operator": "Taishan Nuclear Power Joint Venture Company Limited", "supplier": "FRAMATOME", "source_id": "pris-api-CN", "locator": "items[id=918]", "retrieved_cutoff": "2026-09-17", "evidence_class": "international_database_reported", "decision_class": "conditional_scenario", "note": "PRIS milestones preserved verbatim; operator milestone differences in milestone-crosschecks.json. No Swiss delivery inference.", "claim_id": "build-years-taishan-1", "country_label": "China", "display_name": "Taishan 1", "exact_years": 9.067761806981519 }, { "unit": "SANMEN-1", "design": "AP-1000", "country": "CN", "status": "Operational", "net_mwe": 1157, "gross_mwe": 1251, "first_concrete_pris": "2009-04-19", "first_grid": "2018-06-30", "commercial_pris": "2018-09-21", "construction_to_grid_years": 9.197, "construction_to_commercial_years": 9.424, "operator": "SANMEN NUCLEAR POWER CO., LTD.", "supplier": "WESTINGHOUSE ELECTRIC CORPORATION / MITSUBISHI HEAVY INDUSTRIES, LTD.", "source_id": "pris-api-CN", "locator": "items[id=879]", "retrieved_cutoff": "2026-09-17", "evidence_class": "international_database_reported", "decision_class": "conditional_scenario", "note": "PRIS milestones preserved verbatim; operator milestone differences in milestone-crosschecks.json. No Swiss delivery inference.", "claim_id": "build-years-sanmen-1", "country_label": "China", "display_name": "Sanmen 1", "exact_years": 9.423682409308693 }, { "unit": "VOGTLE-3", "design": "AP-1000", "country": "US", "status": "Operational", "net_mwe": 1117, "gross_mwe": 1250, "first_concrete_pris": "2013-03-02", "first_grid": "2023-03-31", "commercial_pris": "2023-07-31", "construction_to_grid_years": 10.078, "construction_to_commercial_years": 10.412, "operator": "Southern Nuclear Operating Company, Inc.", "supplier": "WESTINGHOUSE ELECTRIC CORPORATION", "source_id": "pris-api-US", "locator": "items[id=1042]", "retrieved_cutoff": "2026-09-17", "evidence_class": "international_database_reported", "decision_class": "conditional_scenario", "note": "PRIS milestones preserved verbatim; operator milestone differences in milestone-crosschecks.json. No Swiss delivery inference.", "claim_id": "build-years-vogtle-3", "country_label": "United States", "display_name": "Vogtle 3", "exact_years": 10.412046543463381 }, { "unit": "OLKILUOTO-3", "design": "EPR", "country": "FI", "status": "Operational", "net_mwe": 1575, "gross_mwe": 1660, "first_concrete_pris": "2005-08-12", "first_grid": "2022-03-12", "commercial_pris": "2023-05-01", "construction_to_grid_years": 16.581, "construction_to_commercial_years": 17.717, "operator": "TEOLLISUUDEN VOIMA OYJ", "supplier": "FRAMATOME", "source_id": "pris-api-FI", "locator": "items[id=860]", "retrieved_cutoff": "2026-09-17", "evidence_class": "international_database_reported", "decision_class": "conditional_scenario", "note": "PRIS milestones preserved verbatim; operator milestone differences in milestone-crosschecks.json. No Swiss delivery inference.", "claim_id": "build-years-olkiluoto-3", "country_label": "Finland", "display_name": "Olkiluoto 3", "exact_years": 17.71663244353183 } ], "schedules": [ { "id": "accelerated_conditional", "preparation_start": 2026, "law_available": 2028, "general_licence_start": 2028, "general_licence_end": 2032, "construction_licence_start": 2030, "construction_licence_end": 2034, "first_concrete": 2034, "construction_to_grid_years": 7, "commissioning_years": 1, "commercial_year": 2042, "unit_count": 1, "note": "Strong overlap, mature unchanged reference, prepared site, timely referendum/appeals, reserved factory slots and financial close. Favourable case, not a guaranteed minimum.", "as_of": "2026-09-17", "evidence_class": "explicit_analyst_schedule_assumptions", "decision_class": "conditional_scenario", "net_mwe_options": [ 1100, 1600 ], "second_unit": "Optional replication only after first project evidence and separate site/grid/financing capacity; no automatic learning credit.", "full_fleet_8_units_by_2050_supported": false, "label": "Favourable case", "description": "Timely decisions, a prepared site and secured suppliers.", "grid_year": 2041, "claim_id": "delivery-accelerated-conditional" }, { "id": "planning_case", "preparation_start": 2026, "law_available": 2028, "general_licence_start": 2029, "general_licence_end": 2035, "construction_licence_start": 2033, "construction_licence_end": 2037, "first_concrete": 2037, "construction_to_grid_years": 9, "commissioning_years": 1, "commercial_year": 2047, "unit_count": 1, "note": "Illustrative planning case with regulatory/design overlap; not a probabilistic P50 forecast.", "as_of": "2026-09-17", "evidence_class": "explicit_analyst_schedule_assumptions", "decision_class": "conditional_scenario", "net_mwe_options": [ 1100, 1600 ], "second_unit": "Optional replication only after first project evidence and separate site/grid/financing capacity; no automatic learning credit.", "full_fleet_8_units_by_2050_supported": false, "label": "Planning illustration", "description": "Longer assessment and construction, with some work in parallel.", "grid_year": 2046, "claim_id": "delivery-planning-case" }, { "id": "delayed_case", "preparation_start": 2026, "law_available": 2031, "general_licence_start": 2032, "general_licence_end": 2039, "construction_licence_start": 2037, "construction_licence_end": 2041, "first_concrete": 2041, "construction_to_grid_years": 11, "commissioning_years": 1, "commercial_year": 2053, "unit_count": 1, "note": "Political/licensing delay plus difficult execution. Construction can be worse: the OL3 reference exceeds 17 years from concrete to commercial operation.", "as_of": "2026-09-17", "evidence_class": "explicit_analyst_schedule_assumptions", "decision_class": "conditional_scenario", "net_mwe_options": [ 1100, 1600 ], "second_unit": "Optional replication only after first project evidence and separate site/grid/financing capacity; no automatic learning credit.", "full_fleet_8_units_by_2050_supported": false, "label": "Delayed case", "description": "Legal or licensing delays, followed by difficult construction.", "grid_year": 2052, "claim_id": "delivery-delayed-case" } ], "bridge": { "as_of": "2026-09-17", "mean_2021_2025_twh": { "beznau-1": 2.7508000000000004, "beznau-2": 2.8074, "goesgen": 7.0122, "leibstadt": 8.6974 }, "beznau_combined_mean_twh": 5.5582, "goesgen_leibstadt_combined_mean_twh": 15.7096, "evidence_class": "historical_average_not_supply_guarantee", "decision_class": "conditional_scenario", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "nuclear-history-calculation", "locator": "2021–2025 plant-year generation" } ], "limitation": "Includes outages, including Gösgen2025. No assumption that past average persists through LTO. Retirement dates remain operator intentions and conditional scenarios in Swiss delivery table." }, "retirement_intentions": { "beznau-1": 2033, "beznau-2": 2032 }, "claims": [ { "id": "build-years-fuqing-5", "label": "Fuqing 5: construction to commercial operation", "value": 5.735797399041752, "unit": "years", "status": "calculated", "period": "2015-05-07 to 2021-01-30", "definition": "Elapsed time between the IAEA PRIS construction-start and commercial-operation dates.", "limitation": "Earlier planning and licensing are outside this interval. Selected examples span designs and jurisdictions, not a representative statistical sample. Olkiluoto’s operator uses a different regular-production milestone.", "sources": [ "pris-api-CN", "nuclear-delivery-calculations" ], "formula": "(2021-01-30 − 2015-05-07) in calendar days / 365.25.", "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17" }, { "id": "build-years-barakah-1", "label": "Barakah 1: construction to commercial operation", "value": 8.700889801505818, "unit": "years", "status": "calculated", "period": "2012-07-19 to 2021-04-01", "definition": "Elapsed time between the IAEA PRIS construction-start and commercial-operation dates.", "limitation": "Earlier planning and licensing are outside this interval. Selected examples span designs and jurisdictions, not a representative statistical sample. Olkiluoto’s operator uses a different regular-production milestone.", "sources": [ "pris-api-AE", "nuclear-delivery-calculations" ], "formula": "(2021-04-01 − 2012-07-19) in calendar days / 365.25.", "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17" }, { "id": "build-years-taishan-1", "label": "Taishan 1: construction to commercial operation", "value": 9.067761806981519, "unit": "years", "status": "calculated", "period": "2009-11-18 to 2018-12-13", "definition": "Elapsed time between the IAEA PRIS construction-start and commercial-operation dates.", "limitation": "Earlier planning and licensing are outside this interval. Selected examples span designs and jurisdictions, not a representative statistical sample. Olkiluoto’s operator uses a different regular-production milestone.", "sources": [ "pris-api-CN", "nuclear-delivery-calculations" ], "formula": "(2018-12-13 − 2009-11-18) in calendar days / 365.25.", "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17" }, { "id": "build-years-sanmen-1", "label": "Sanmen 1: construction to commercial operation", "value": 9.423682409308693, "unit": "years", "status": "calculated", "period": "2009-04-19 to 2018-09-21", "definition": "Elapsed time between the IAEA PRIS construction-start and commercial-operation dates.", "limitation": "Earlier planning and licensing are outside this interval. Selected examples span designs and jurisdictions, not a representative statistical sample. Olkiluoto’s operator uses a different regular-production milestone.", "sources": [ "pris-api-CN", "nuclear-delivery-calculations" ], "formula": "(2018-09-21 − 2009-04-19) in calendar days / 365.25.", "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17" }, { "id": "build-years-vogtle-3", "label": "Vogtle 3: construction to commercial operation", "value": 10.412046543463381, "unit": "years", "status": "calculated", "period": "2013-03-02 to 2023-07-31", "definition": "Elapsed time between the IAEA PRIS construction-start and commercial-operation dates.", "limitation": "Earlier planning and licensing are outside this interval. Selected examples span designs and jurisdictions, not a representative statistical sample. Olkiluoto’s operator uses a different regular-production milestone.", "sources": [ "pris-api-US", "nuclear-delivery-calculations" ], "formula": "(2023-07-31 − 2013-03-02) in calendar days / 365.25.", "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17" }, { "id": "build-years-olkiluoto-3", "label": "Olkiluoto 3: construction to commercial operation", "value": 17.71663244353183, "unit": "years", "status": "calculated", "period": "2005-08-12 to 2023-05-01", "definition": "Elapsed time between the IAEA PRIS construction-start and commercial-operation dates.", "limitation": "Earlier planning and licensing are outside this interval. Selected examples span designs and jurisdictions, not a representative statistical sample. Olkiluoto’s operator uses a different regular-production milestone.", "sources": [ "pris-api-FI", "nuclear-delivery-calculations" ], "formula": "(2023-05-01 − 2005-08-12) in calendar days / 365.25.", "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17" }, { "id": "delivery-accelerated-conditional", "label": "Favourable case: first commercial operation", "value": 2042, "unit": "year", "status": "scenario", "period": "Illustrative first Swiss project; preparation begins in 2026", "definition": "Analyst schedule combining assumed legal availability, overlapping preparation and approvals, construction and commissioning.", "limitation": "A conditional first-unit case, with no assigned probability. Site approval, supplier slots, finance and legal change remain dependencies. Greater delay or cancellation is possible.", "sources": [ "nuclear-delivery-calculations" ], "formula": "2034 first concrete + 7 years to first grid + 1 commissioning year = 2042. All durations are assumptions.", "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17" }, { "id": "delivery-planning-case", "label": "Planning illustration: first commercial operation", "value": 2047, "unit": "year", "status": "scenario", "period": "Illustrative first Swiss project; preparation begins in 2026", "definition": "Analyst schedule combining assumed legal availability, overlapping preparation and approvals, construction and commissioning.", "limitation": "A conditional first-unit case, with no assigned probability. Site approval, supplier slots, finance and legal change remain dependencies. Greater delay or cancellation is possible.", "sources": [ "nuclear-delivery-calculations" ], "formula": "2037 first concrete + 9 years to first grid + 1 commissioning year = 2047. All durations are assumptions.", "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17" }, { "id": "delivery-delayed-case", "label": "Delayed case: first commercial operation", "value": 2053, "unit": "year", "status": "scenario", "period": "Illustrative first Swiss project; preparation begins in 2026", "definition": "Analyst schedule combining assumed legal availability, overlapping preparation and approvals, construction and commissioning.", "limitation": "A conditional first-unit case, with no assigned probability. Site approval, supplier slots, finance and legal change remain dependencies. Greater delay or cancellation is possible.", "sources": [ "nuclear-delivery-calculations" ], "formula": "2041 first concrete + 11 years to first grid + 1 commissioning year = 2053. All durations are assumptions.", "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17" }, { "id": "beznau-mean-2021-2025", "label": "Beznau’s average annual electricity", "value": 5.5582, "unit": "TWh/year", "status": "calculated", "period": "2021–2025", "definition": "Combined net output of Beznau 1 and 2, averaged over five years, including outages.", "limitation": "Historical annual energy sets the scale. Replacement supply must also meet winter and hourly needs; the average is not guaranteed future output.", "sources": [ "nuclear-history-calculation", "nuclear-delivery-calculations" ], "formula": "Sum the ten plant-year net-generation values in GWh; divide by five years and by 1,000.", "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17" }, { "id": "beznau-2-retirement", "label": "Beznau 2: announced retirement year", "value": 2032, "unit": "year", "status": "scenario", "period": "Operator intention announced December 2024", "definition": "Axpo’s announced operating horizon, recorded in ENSI’s tenth national report, introduction.", "limitation": "An operator intention, distinct from a fixed statutory lifetime. Continued operation remains subject to safety requirements and the owner’s decision.", "sources": [ "ensi-cns-2025" ], "formula": "Use the operator intention recorded by ENSI; no lifetime extrapolation.", "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17" }, { "id": "beznau-1-retirement", "label": "Beznau 1: announced retirement year", "value": 2033, "unit": "year", "status": "scenario", "period": "Operator intention announced December 2024", "definition": "Axpo’s announced operating horizon, recorded in ENSI’s tenth national report, introduction.", "limitation": "An operator intention, distinct from a fixed statutory lifetime. Continued operation remains subject to safety requirements and the owner’s decision.", "sources": [ "ensi-cns-2025" ], "formula": "Use the operator intention recorded by ENSI; no lifetime extrapolation.", "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17" }, { "id": "nuclear-referendum-expected", "label": "Expected vote on the new-build ban", "value": 2027, "unit": "year", "status": "scenario", "period": "DETEC position checked 17 September 2026", "definition": "DETEC expects the referendum vote in 2027 after parliamentary approval of repeal.", "limitation": "Expected timing and outcome remain conditional. Repeal would allow project applications; it would not approve a station.", "sources": [ "uvek-nuclear-status" ], "formula": "Directly reproduce DETEC’s stated expected vote year; no probability assigned.", "reviewedAt": "2026-09-17" } ], "selection": "Six completed reference units span four designs and four countries, including different outcomes within AP1000 and EPR designs. This is an illustrative selection, not a global sample or estimate of Swiss completion odds.", "inputs": [ { "path": "data/nuclear-delivery-2026-09-17/reference-units.json", "sha256": "7f9c1580abee9e5e3d422247a2326ab0f14182a6140022eb6f756c2c6c961bc9", "bytes": 17847 }, { "path": "data/nuclear-delivery-2026-09-17/delivery-scenarios.json", "sha256": "c8685bed3cfb2656db36caaf328ab082cff954e03f050d7bd92c33f3b94198cc", "bytes": 4356 }, { "path": "data/nuclear-delivery-2026-09-17/existing-fleet-bridge.json", "sha256": "3ddd0db7e10d75051f50e77ad14ad95fd8c8ee022dbf8d3a728f7782db4f79e8", "bytes": 693 }, { "path": "data/nuclear-delivery-2026-09-17/swiss-delivery-evidence.json", "sha256": "c3b114a1fe7a246015c6822fe0f41c5e5c88c649fced4340c816662b3e55f577", "bytes": 10342 }, { "path": "data/nuclear-delivery-2026-09-17/source-catalog.json", "sha256": "ca2ad93238035c3fe2341f9f3dad44a8aafd1492051a71b173b72cf552378516", "bytes": 153955 } ], "recommendations": [ "Begin owner-led assessment of mature large-reactor designs.", "Procure the Beznau replacement bridge independently of new nuclear.", "Keep SMRs as a conditional option until reference performance and executable offers support investment.", "Make further units depend on site, grid, supplier and financing capacity; do not assume a fleet delivery rate." ] }