{ "reviewedAt": "2026-09-19", "recommendation": "Develop two standardised large reactors, pursue safe viable Gösgen/Leibstadt extensions, and contract regular winter supply plus separate outage cover. The programme does not close every tested hour.", "weather": [ { "year": 2012, "routine_claim": "programme-2012-dc-routine-winter", "outage_claim": "programme-2012-dc-outage-winter", "routine": 0.7363438588238129, "outage": 2.989449456884814 }, { "year": 2013, "routine_claim": "programme-2013-dc-routine-winter", "outage_claim": "programme-2013-dc-outage-winter", "routine": 0.6245751112069278, "outage": 3.0332280210113356 }, { "year": 2014, "routine_claim": "programme-2014-dc-routine-winter", "outage_claim": "programme-2014-dc-outage-winter", "routine": 0.0, "outage": 1.1004547705566228 }, { "year": 2015, "routine_claim": "programme-2015-dc-routine-winter", "outage_claim": "programme-2015-dc-outage-winter", "routine": 0.0, "outage": 0.9763912455894734 }, { "year": 2016, "routine_claim": "programme-2016-dc-routine-winter", "outage_claim": "programme-2016-dc-outage-winter", "routine": 0.0, "outage": 2.0237913250384603 }, { "year": 2017, "routine_claim": "programme-2017-dc-routine-winter", "outage_claim": "programme-2017-dc-outage-winter", "routine": 1.9552512904960864, "outage": 4.187011727037884 }, { "year": 2018, "routine_claim": "programme-2018-dc-routine-winter", "outage_claim": "programme-2018-dc-outage-winter", "routine": 0.8573819594993686, "outage": 3.261456941564795 }, { "year": 2019, "routine_claim": "programme-2019-dc-routine-winter", "outage_claim": "programme-2019-dc-outage-winter", "routine": 0.0, "outage": 1.8487447526272427 }, { "year": 2020, "routine_claim": "programme-2020-dc-routine-winter", "outage_claim": "programme-2020-dc-outage-winter", "routine": 0.0, "outage": 0.0 }, { "year": 2021, "routine_claim": "programme-2021-dc-routine-winter", "outage_claim": "programme-2021-dc-outage-winter", "routine": 0.0, "outage": 1.8397662383317062 }, { "year": 2022, "routine_claim": "programme-2022-dc-routine-winter", "outage_claim": "programme-2022-dc-outage-winter", "routine": 0.5559891908618801, "outage": 2.705163901045925 }, { "year": 2023, "routine_claim": "programme-2023-dc-routine-winter", "outage_claim": "programme-2023-dc-outage-winter", "routine": 0.0, "outage": 1.577912419351483 }, { "year": 2024, "routine_claim": "programme-2024-dc-routine-winter", "outage_claim": "programme-2024-dc-outage-winter", "routine": 0.0, "outage": 0.0 } ], "fleets": [ { "key": "2new-lto", "label": "Two new reactors + both existing plants", "cases": [ { "year": 2012, "case_id": "2012-2050-2new-lto", "winter": 2.874533494412356, "peak": 7.1712629733851445, "winter_claim": "programme-2012-2050-2new-lto-winter", "peak_claim": "programme-2012-2050-2new-lto-peak" }, { "year": 2017, "case_id": "2017-2050-2new-lto", "winter": 3.8187994742312585, "peak": 3.9989990750370343, "winter_claim": "programme-2017-2050-2new-lto-winter", "peak_claim": "programme-2017-2050-2new-lto-peak" }, { "year": 2022, "case_id": "2022-2050-2new-lto", "winter": 2.4034319914861273, "peak": 0.9439604717024205, "winter_claim": "programme-2022-2050-2new-lto-winter", "peak_claim": "programme-2022-2050-2new-lto-peak" } ] }, { "key": "1new-lto", "label": "Second new reactor delayed", "cases": [ { "year": 2012, "case_id": "2012-2050-1new-lto", "winter": 6.384415001242058, "peak": 8.249262973385143, "winter_claim": "programme-2012-2050-1new-lto-winter", "peak_claim": "programme-2012-2050-1new-lto-peak" }, { "year": 2017, "case_id": "2017-2050-1new-lto", "winter": 7.575105143309248, "peak": 5.076999075037034, "winter_claim": "programme-2017-2050-1new-lto-winter", "peak_claim": "programme-2017-2050-1new-lto-peak" }, { "year": 2022, "case_id": "2022-2050-1new-lto", "winter": 6.028780034072026, "peak": 2.0219604717024198, "winter_claim": "programme-2022-2050-1new-lto-winter", "peak_claim": "programme-2022-2050-1new-lto-peak" } ] }, { "key": "2new-no-lto", "label": "Two new reactors; both existing plants closed", "cases": [ { "year": 2012, "case_id": "2012-2050-2new-no-lto", "winter": 10.306469978079537, "peak": 9.369402973385142, "winter_claim": "programme-2012-2050-2new-no-lto-winter", "peak_claim": "programme-2012-2050-2new-no-lto-peak" }, { "year": 2017, "case_id": "2017-2050-2new-no-lto", "winter": 11.611745613127404, "peak": 6.197139075037033, "winter_claim": "programme-2017-2050-2new-no-lto-winter", "peak_claim": "programme-2017-2050-2new-no-lto-peak" }, { "year": 2022, "case_id": "2022-2050-2new-no-lto", "winter": 9.961721816903635, "peak": 3.164803529375292, "winter_claim": "programme-2022-2050-2new-no-lto-winter", "peak_claim": "programme-2022-2050-2new-no-lto-peak" } ] }, { "key": "3new-no-lto", "label": "Three new reactors; both existing plants closed", "cases": [ { "year": 2012, "case_id": "2012-2050-3new-no-lto", "winter": 6.738030090991864, "peak": 8.291402973385143, "winter_claim": "programme-2012-2050-3new-no-lto-winter", "peak_claim": "programme-2012-2050-3new-no-lto-peak" }, { "year": 2017, "case_id": "2017-2050-3new-no-lto", "winter": 7.997967648646055, "peak": 5.119139075037034, "winter_claim": "programme-2017-2050-3new-no-lto-winter", "peak_claim": "programme-2017-2050-3new-no-lto-peak" }, { "year": 2022, "case_id": "2022-2050-3new-no-lto", "winter": 6.468565412395023, "peak": 2.0641004717024196, "winter_claim": "programme-2022-2050-3new-no-lto-winter", "peak_claim": "programme-2022-2050-3new-no-lto-peak" } ] } ], "day_night": [ { "period": "day", "value": 0.39287431580173127, "claim": "programme-2050-winter-day" }, { "period": "night", "value": 1.6917763811755546, "claim": "programme-2050-winter-night" } ], "finance": [ { "rate_percent": 3.0, "price": 114.68345418515081, "claim": "programme-finance-3" }, { "rate_percent": 5.0, "price": 152.73883761728933, "claim": "programme-finance-5" }, { "rate_percent": 7.000000000000001, "price": 202.14877210239334, "claim": "programme-finance-7" }, { "rate_percent": 10.0, "price": 299.8497224757087, "claim": "programme-finance-10" } ], "timelines": [ { "id": "preparation", "start": 2027, "end": 2030, "action": "Fund site, design, cooling, grid, fuel and delivery-team studies for two standardised large reactors. Compare AP1000, APR1400 and EPR offers; retain HPR1000 only with an acceptable supply/export and licensing case. Keep SMRs conditional on operating references and a financeable delivery offer.", "decision_class": "action_now", "capacity_gw": null, "cost": "Unit1 development allowance CHF550m2026 spread2027–36; unit2 same2030–39. Stage-gate release, not immediate commitment of the full allowance.", "dependencies": [ "Experienced owner/architect-engineer and independent cost/schedule assurance", "Current law and referendum outcomes; no construction authorisation inferred from studies", "Supplier/export/IP rights and Swiss reference-design compliance" ], "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "nuclear-delivery-calculations", "locator": "technology-matrix.json and swiss-delivery-evidence.json" }, { "source_id": "programme-method", "locator": "finance.py development allowance" } ], "as_of": "2026-09-18", "date_status": "Analyst programme dates unless explicitly identified as owner intention or owner target" }, { "id": "licensing", "start": 2028, "end": 2037, "action": "Central assumption: law effective2028, general-licence work2029–35, construction-licence work2033–37. Preserve separate operating licence and commissioning releases.", "decision_class": "conditional_scenario", "capacity_gw": null, "cost": "Covered by the provisional development and construction boundaries; regulator and owner staffing not separately quoted.", "dependencies": [ "General licence including site, system, power class and main cooling", "Parliamentary approval, potential general-licence referendum and appeals", "DETEC construction licence and ENSI releases" ], "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "fedlex-keg-2025", "locator": "Articles12–20 and42–49" }, { "source_id": "nuclear-delivery-calculations", "locator": "delivery-scenarios.json central case" }, { "source_id": "uvek-status-2026-09-18", "locator": "Kernenergie paragraph; referendum expected2027, not law in force" } ], "as_of": "2026-09-18", "date_status": "Analyst programme dates unless explicitly identified as owner intention or owner target" }, { "id": "site-reuse", "start": 2027, "end": 2031, "action": "Reopen the old Beznau, Mühleberg and Niederamt technical baselines. Select one-site versus two-site programme only after updated studies. Do not assume a two-reactor station fits the old single-reactor envelope.", "decision_class": "action_now", "capacity_gw": null, "cost": "No verified CHF or years saved; included in study allowance without asserting savings.", "dependencies": [ "Updated seismic, flood, geotechnical and external-hazard cases", "Cooling-water rights, hybrid cooling tower design, drought/heat rejection and climate conditions", "380kV connection, transmission reinforcement, largest-unit loss and system services", "Transport routes, heavy lifts, labour accommodation, site interfaces and decommissioning work" ], "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "historical-nuclear-selection", "locator": "projects-and-reuse.json; EKKB/EKKM1450MW±20%, Niederamt1100/1600MW, withdrawn2016" } ], "as_of": "2026-09-18", "date_status": "Analyst programme dates unless explicitly identified as owner intention or owner target" }, { "id": "beznau-exit", "start": 2032, "end": 2033, "action": "Replace Beznau2 output by its2032 owner-intended closure and Beznau1 by2033. Do not rely on an extension beyond2033.", "decision_class": "action_now", "capacity_gw": -0.73, "cost": "Axpo announced CHF350m investment to2033; this is existing-plant spending, not a new-plant bid.", "dependencies": [ "Owner retirement decision", "Independent regular winter and contingency supply contracts" ], "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "beznau-axpo-decision-faq", "locator": "Owner decision and FAQ on operation beyond2033" } ], "as_of": "2026-09-18", "date_status": "Analyst programme dates unless explicitly identified as owner intention or owner target" }, { "id": "winter-service", "start": 2027, "end": 2033, "action": "Tender about2TWh per winter of additional dependable energy with delivery by2033. Start with the model deficit, then adjust for demand and signed firm supply. Procure short-notice response and prolonged-outage energy as distinct services.", "decision_class": "action_now", "capacity_gw": null, "cost": "Illustrative2TWh purchased at CHF150–300/MWh costs CHF300–600m per winter. Transfer/service expenditure, not generation resource cost; exclude any energy already paid through a readiness/activation contract.", "dependencies": [ "Market-permitted generation or deliverable firm imports", "Paid hydro opportunity costs and sustainable fuel logistics", "No automatic use of emergency-only plants for routine market supply" ], "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "programme-method", "locator": "case-index.json routine2017 and backup-costs-and-fuel.json" }, { "source_id": "bfe-reserve-status-2026", "locator": "Reserve-plant purpose and operation constraints" } ], "as_of": "2026-09-18", "date_status": "Analyst programme dates unless explicitly identified as owner intention or owner target" }, { "id": "lto-goesgen", "start": 2030, "end": 2039, "action": "Pursue Gösgen long-term operation beyond its60-year point in2039, with engineering and owner approval before relying on it through2050.", "decision_class": "conditional_scenario", "capacity_gw": 1.01, "cost": "BFE study central incremental investment CHF1169m2025 for60→80years. No public annual expenditure schedule adopted.", "dependencies": [ "Plant-specific safety and ageing findings", "Major component replacement, supply chain, maintenance outages", "Owner revenue, insurance and waste/decommissioning funding" ], "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "bfe-lto-2026-background", "locator": "Long-term-operation investment cases,60→80years" }, { "source_id": "nuclear-delivery-calculations", "locator": "existing-fleet-bridge.json" } ], "as_of": "2026-09-18", "date_status": "Analyst programme dates unless explicitly identified as owner intention or owner target" }, { "id": "lto-leibstadt", "start": 2035, "end": 2044, "action": "Pursue Leibstadt operation beyond its60-year point in2044; retain an early-closure replacement option.", "decision_class": "conditional_scenario", "capacity_gw": 1.233, "cost": "BFE study central incremental investment CHF732m2025 for60→80years. Not a licence or investment commitment.", "dependencies": [ "Same plant-specific LTO gates as Gösgen", "No double counting existing output as new capacity" ], "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "bfe-lto-2026-background", "locator": "Long-term-operation investment cases,60→80years" } ], "as_of": "2026-09-18", "date_status": "Analyst programme dates unless explicitly identified as owner intention or owner target" }, { "id": "new1", "start": 2037, "end": 2047, "action": "Central planning case: first concrete2037, grid operation2046, commercial operation2047 for the first~1.1GW net reactor.", "decision_class": "conditional_scenario", "capacity_gw": 1.1, "cost": "CHF11bn2026 overnight; CHF12.21bn before financing including separate development/grid/core allowances. Scenario, not quote.", "dependencies": [ "Site-specific permits and financial close", "Long-lead forgings, qualified construction and nuclear QA", "Fuel, licensed staff, emergency arrangements and commissioning tests" ], "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "nuclear-delivery-calculations", "locator": "delivery-scenarios.json central; international reference construction intervals" }, { "source_id": "cameco-q2-2026", "locator": "pp33–37, supplier targets and early-project economics" }, { "source_id": "programme-method", "locator": "owner-finance-summary.json" } ], "as_of": "2026-09-18", "date_status": "Analyst programme dates unless explicitly identified as owner intention or owner target" }, { "id": "new2", "start": 2040, "end": 2050, "action": "Develop the second standardised~1.1GW net unit in parallel, with central commercial operation2050. Reserve an option early enough to overlap construction; do not wait for the first unit to enter service.", "decision_class": "conditional_scenario", "capacity_gw": 1.1, "cost": "Same cost allowance as unit1. No automatic learning discount. Combined preoperation cash allowance CHF24.42bn2026 before financing.", "dependencies": [ "Independent or shared-site approval for the complete programme", "Supplier capacity, owner capital and workforce for overlap", "Replication benefit only after a priced, deliverable offer" ], "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "pej-licence-2026", "locator": "Poland owner2036/37/38 sequence is a target, not Swiss slots" }, { "source_id": "edf-arabelle-2026", "locator": "New component capacity from2030, not whole-reactor throughput" }, { "source_id": "programme-method", "locator": "programme-annual-cashflow.json" } ], "as_of": "2026-09-18", "date_status": "Analyst programme dates unless explicitly identified as owner intention or owner target" }, { "id": "delayed-first", "start": 2041, "end": 2053, "action": "Retain a delay case with first operation2053 and zero new nuclear by2050. Price bridge contracts extending beyond2050; do not book generation from unfinished works.", "decision_class": "conditional_scenario", "capacity_gw": 0, "cost": "Separate one-unit3-year-slip example loses24.5718TWh at85%CF; CHF3.69–7.37bn gross replacement purchases at150–300/MWh, before avoided variable cost and later generation.", "dependencies": [ "Later legal entry or site decisions", "Construction and commissioning risks", "Replace shortfall with deliverable contracted resources" ], "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "nuclear-delivery-calculations", "locator": "delivery-scenarios.json delayed" }, { "source_id": "programme-method", "locator": "delay-and-public-risk.json" } ], "as_of": "2026-09-18", "date_status": "Analyst programme dates unless explicitly identified as owner intention or owner target" }, { "id": "grimsel4", "start": 2026, "end": 2032, "action": "Include Grimsel4 from owner-target February2032 after commissioning:168MW reversible power and cascade flexibility.", "decision_class": "conditional_scenario", "capacity_gw": 0.168, "cost": "CHF300m2025 ±15% owner estimate; FID27March2026.", "dependencies": [ "Construction and tests", "Shared reservoirs and downstream capacity; no new natural energy" ], "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "kwo-grimsel4-2026", "locator": "Eckdaten" }, { "source_id": "kwo-grimsel4-fid-2026", "locator": "Construction calendar" } ], "as_of": "2026-09-18", "date_status": "Analyst programme dates unless explicitly identified as owner intention or owner target" }, { "id": "seasonal-hydro", "start": 2027, "end": 2035, "action": "Prioritise Grimselsee enlargement and Mattmark raising; use2035 only as an analyst target conditional on concessions, permits and owner contracts.", "decision_class": "conditional_scenario", "capacity_gw": null, "cost": "Grimselsee CHF307m2025 for240GWh extra seasonal storage; Mattmark CHF83m2025 for60GWh winter shift. Do not add0.3TWh as new annual generation or add it again to a2TWh national target.", "dependencies": [ "Grimselsee six-year works after approvals; no firm COD", "Environmental measures, water rights and owner economics", "Mattmark concession and approval process" ], "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "kwo-grimselsee-2026", "locator": "Eckdaten and concession applicationMay2024" }, { "source_id": "axpo-mattmark-project", "locator": "Winter shift60GWh, unchangedannual generation and83m cost" } ], "as_of": "2026-09-18", "date_status": "Analyst programme dates unless explicitly identified as owner intention or owner target" }, { "id": "solar", "start": 2026, "end": 2050, "action": "Maintain the tested26GWp2035 and53GWp2050 build path as a conditional programme, prioritising sites with useful winter output and viable connection costs.", "decision_class": "conditional_scenario", "capacity_gw": 53, "cost": "No future cost learning assumed; installed-roof survey medians used separately in cost-scope-ledger.json, excluding external network and roof works.", "dependencies": [ "Rooftops, workforce, connection queues and owner revenues", "Renewal of ageing panels/inverters and grid works", "Curtailment, winter output and imports tested separately" ], "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "portfolio-2035-model", "locator": "parameters and solar profile" }, { "source_id": "bfe-solar-storage-2025", "locator": "2025 installed capacity9.4986GWp" }, { "source_id": "programme-method", "locator": "cost-scope-ledger.json" } ], "as_of": "2026-09-18", "date_status": "Analyst programme dates unless explicitly identified as owner intention or owner target" } ], "inputs": [ { "id": "dc_total_2035", "central": 3.2, "low": 2.5, "high": 3.5, "unit": "TWh/year at final meter", "rationale": "Carry published2030 central outcome to2035 as explicit plateau; add a4.5TWh post2030-growth stress separately. Subtract2.202692TWh embedded services allowance.", "boundary": "Study population; server rooms outside it stay in baseline; sector/cooling allocation unresolved.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "bfe-data-centres-2026", "locator": "printed pp123–127" } ] }, { "id": "dc_total_2050_floor", "central": 3.2, "low": 2.5, "high": 10, "unit": "TWh/year", "rationale": "Use3.2 only as the explicitly labelled no-further-growth floor; separately test5 and10. No credible single central2050 forecast recovered.", "boundary": "Reference-year final meter. New2050 fleet runs use3.2; never claim these prove adequacy at10.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "bfe-data-centres-2026", "locator": "pp123–127; study horizon2030" } ] }, { "id": "bev_stock_2035", "central": 1439084.5155145188, "low": 1000000, "high": 2100000, "unit": "vehicles", "rationale": "Sales-paced path from observed2025 stock; accelerated BFE2.1m is a separate published scenario. Mechanical path, not forecast confidence interval.", "boundary": "Stock path must change all passenger-car energy, not only V2G participants.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "bfs-vehicles-2025", "locator": "pp1–2; programme_evidence/variants.py fleet calculation" } ] }, { "id": "bev_distance", "central": 12000, "low": 10000, "high": 15000, "unit": "km/vehicle/year", "rationale": "Retain explicit prior driving assumption; combine with future stock once.", "boundary": "Do not multiply future fleet kilometres by another total road activity factor.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "portfolio-2035-model", "locator": "portfolio_model/parameters.json vehicle.annual_km" } ] }, { "id": "bev_battery_intensity", "central": 0.18, "low": 0.15, "high": 0.23, "unit": "kWh/km at battery", "rationale": "No unverified future efficiency gain in central.", "boundary": "Divide by charging efficiency once; include cold-weather driving in high case.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "portfolio-2035-model", "locator": "portfolio_model/parameters.json vehicle.battery_kwh_per_km" } ] }, { "id": "charging_efficiency", "central": 0.9, "low": 0.85, "high": 0.95, "unit": "fraction", "rationale": "Retain demonstrated-technology screening assumption, not fleet observation.", "boundary": "Battery-to-meter; then grid losses separately.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "portfolio-2035-model", "locator": "portfolio_model/parameters.json vehicle.charge_efficiency" } ] }, { "id": "phev_stock_2035", "central": 600000, "low": 0, "high": 700000, "unit": "vehicles", "rationale": "Scenario allowance below published~700k2034 peak; counts and kilometres are not observed2035.", "boundary": "Do not retain old all-passenger-car electricity in addition to BEV+PHEV.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "bfe-charging-2050", "locator": "printed p17 section3.2" } ] }, { "id": "phev_electric_distance_share", "central": 0.3, "low": 0.1, "high": 0.6, "unit": "fraction", "rationale": "Explicit provisional utilisation range; charging access materially affects it.", "boundary": "PHEV electricity only; residual fuel not treated as electrified.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "bfe-charging-2050", "locator": "pp13–18 scenario boundary; fraction is our assumption" } ] }, { "id": "net_foreign_car_adjustment", "central": 0, "low": -0.2, "high": 0.2, "unit": "TWh/year", "rationale": "Label unresolved territorial versus registered-fleet allocation; zero is a central net balance assumption, not evidence of no foreign charging.", "boundary": "Applied to final passenger-car electricity only.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "demand-model-v1", "locator": "baseline road_transport cars activity_boundary" } ] }, { "id": "new_space_heat_spf", "central": 3.3, "low": 2.7, "high": 4.0, "unit": "kWh heat/kWh electricity", "rationale": "Retain annual central pending stock weighting; measured whole-system variation supports stress.", "boundary": "Space heating only. Do not substitute combined heat+DHW WNG unadjusted.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "bfe-heat-field-2021", "locator": "pp38–40 Tables6–7; bfe-heatpump-field-2023 pp4,18" } ] }, { "id": "cold_cop_slope", "central": 0.08, "low": 0.06, "high": 0.12, "unit": "COP/degC", "rationale": "Current curve is assumed. High slope lowers COP in cold weather; Swiss measurements bound examples, not a national fitted slope.", "boundary": "COP3.5 at7C, floor1.5, ceiling5; normalized shape separate from annual SPF.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "bfe-heat-field-2021", "locator": "p39 Table6" } ] }, { "id": "heating_balance_temperature", "central": 16, "low": 12, "high": 18, "unit": "degC", "rationale": "Use existing16C pending age/renovation weighting; field-report12/16C thresholds motivate stratification, not direct equivalence.", "boundary": "Model max(balance−smoothedT,0) differs from report20/12 and20/16 degree-day definition.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "bfe-heatpump-field-2023", "locator": "p19" } ] }, { "id": "routine_nuclear_maintenance", "central": 30, "low": 20, "high": 60, "unit": "days/unit/year", "rationale": "Routine summer window; separately schedule major refurbishment using owner programmes.", "boundary": "0.98 other availability applies only in remaining hours. Do not then multiply by an annual90%CF.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "ensi-kkl-revision-2022", "locator": "13June shutdown,11July restart permission; not actual grid timestamp" } ] }, { "id": "other_nuclear_availability", "central": 0.98, "low": 0.95, "high": 1.0, "unit": "fraction outside scheduled outages", "rationale": "Same central as frozen model; not derived outage probability.", "boundary": "With30days maintenance, normal-year impliedCF~89.95%.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "portfolio-2035-model", "locator": "portfolio_model/parameters.json" } ] }, { "id": "exceptional_outage", "central": 90, "low": 30, "high": 180, "unit": "calendar days", "rationale": "Conditional winter stress. Gösgen2025/26 demonstrates longer events are possible; also retain full-year-loss sensitivity.", "boundary": "No probability assigned. Major planned outage is not automatically forced failure.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "kkg-march-restart-2026", "locator": "23March2026 grid return; kkg-2025-annual pp10–11" } ] }, { "id": "imports_during_stress", "central": 2, "low": 0, "high": 2.8, "unit": "GW available each hour", "rationale": "Retain2GW continuity case; tested1GW and0.2.8GW is an ElCom transport scenario, not a dependable supply contract.", "boundary": "NTC, neighbouring surplus and rights to delivered energy are three different constraints.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "elcom-sa-summary-2025", "locator": "pp3–5 Table1 and S5/S6 discussion" } ] }, { "id": "natural_hydro_access_stock", "central": 1, "low": 0.75, "high": 1, "unit": "fraction of inherited store", "rationale": "1 is optimistic aggregate-model access;0.75 illustrates withheld/inaccessible stock, not measured reduction.", "boundary": "Preserve inflow, turbine and cyclic-stock accounting; do not replace gross national store with eligible8160GWh automatically.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "elcom-hydro-reserve-2026", "locator": "pp1–2 and annex; model energy boundary differs" } ] }, { "id": "natural_hydro_access_power", "central": 1, "low": 0.8, "high": 1, "unit": "fraction of inherited turbine power", "rationale": "Station maintenance/cascade bottlenecks unmodeled;0.8 sensitivity paired with0.75stock.", "boundary": "No assertion that20% is routinely unavailable.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "bieudron-overhaul-2026", "locator": "overhaul~9months/unit; otherunitscontinue" } ] }, { "id": "incremental_hydro_winter_shift", "central": 0.3, "low": 0, "high": 0.3, "unit": "TWh/winter", "rationale": "Conditional Grimselsee240GWh+Mattmark60GWh, subject to permits, inflow and owner rights.", "boundary": "Shift from summer, not new annual energy. Not added on top of an encompassing2TWh target.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "kwo-grimselsee-2026", "locator": "opening; inherited Mattmark owner project" } ] }, { "id": "hydro_voluntary_reservation_price", "central": 100, "low": 50, "high": 300, "unit": "CHF2026/MWh reserved", "rationale": "Offer-screening range for opportunity cost, not extrapolated regulated tariff. Reprice per season and owner.", "boundary": "Activation electricity priced separately unless contract includes it; account for foregone sales and maintenance.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "elcom-hydro-reserve-2026", "locator": "p5 section3.8; aramis-doc-73996 pp65–66" } ] }, { "id": "new_nuclear_units_2050", "central": 2, "low": 1, "high": 3, "unit": "units", "rationale": "Develop two standardised large units; third is an option if LTO fails, not assumed available by2050.", "boundary": "First-unit commercial2047, second2050 conditional; sizes separately compared.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "nuclear-delivery-calculations", "locator": "delivery-scenarios; programme delivery-timeline.json" } ] }, { "id": "new_nuclear_unit_net_gw", "central": 1.1, "low": 1.1, "high": 1.6, "unit": "GW net", "rationale": "1.1GW reference simplifies comparison and limits largest-infeed risk; no vendor selection implied.", "boundary": "AP1000 actual project~1.15GW; EPR/APR alternatives1.4–1.6GW with different costs/cooling.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "nuclear-delivery-calculations", "locator": "technology-matrix and reference-units" } ] }, { "id": "first_new_cod", "central": 2047, "low": 2042, "high": 2053, "unit": "calendar year", "rationale": "Central inherited Swiss sequence with10years from concrete through commissioning.", "boundary": "Owner dates in Poland are comparators, not Swiss licence durations.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "nuclear-delivery-calculations", "locator": "delivery-scenarios; pej-licence-2026 finalparagraphs" } ] }, { "id": "second_unit_spacing", "central": 3, "low": 2, "high": 6, "unit": "years afterfirst", "rationale": "Overlapping standardised follow-on programme; no cost learning credit centrally.", "boundary": "Requires separate site/cooling/grid approvals and committed resources beforefirst COD.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "pej-licence-2026", "locator": "2036/37/38 owner targets; Swiss spacing is our assumption" } ] }, { "id": "new_nuclear_overnight", "central": 10000, "low": 6000, "high": 15000, "unit": "CHF2026/kW net", "rationale": "Retain broad earlier Swiss screening band, now checked against distinct foreign project scopes. Not a quote or inflation-converted foreign average.", "boundary": "Plant overnight construction; development, grid, firstcore and financing added separately. No implicit learning.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "cost-chapter-calculations", "locator": "assumptions A01; cameco-q2-2026 p36" } ] }, { "id": "real_owner_discount_rate", "central": 0.07, "low": 0.03, "high": 0.1, "unit": "annual fraction real", "rationale": "Owner/project required-return sensitivity. A lower guaranteed rate reallocates risk; it is not free saving.", "boundary": "Constant2026CHF; no nominal escalation also added.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "cost-chapter-calculations", "locator": "assumptions A01" } ] }, { "id": "development_fraction", "central": 0.05, "low": 0.02, "high": 0.1, "unit": "fraction of overnight", "rationale": "Explicit Swiss feasibility/licensing/owner allowance, not measured cost.", "boundary": "Preconstruction2027–36 forunit1. Count once outside overnight boundary.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "programme-method", "locator": "finance.py assumptions and expenditure profile" } ] }, { "id": "grid_fraction", "central": 0.05, "low": 0.02, "high": 0.15, "unit": "fraction of overnight", "rationale": "Provisional attributable-grid allowance; no connection study/bid.", "boundary": "New connection and incremental reinforcement only, not the entire Swissgrid strategy.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "programme-method", "locator": "finance.py; historical dossiers grid scope not current approval" } ] }, { "id": "first_core_fraction", "central": 0.01, "low": 0.005, "high": 0.02, "unit": "fraction of overnight", "rationale": "Provisional firstcore/initial stock allowance; procurement unavailable.", "boundary": "Regular reload fuel variable cost starts with operation; initialstock capital separate.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "programme-method", "locator": "finance.py explicit assumption" } ] }, { "id": "routine_fixed_om", "central": 240, "low": 118, "high": 320, "unit": "CHF2026/kW/year", "rationale": "Screening budget; combines labour, routine maintenance and compliance. Above prior120 all-in illustration; no Swiss new-buildstaffquote.", "boundary": "Excludes separate insurance allowance and majorrefurbishment; does not count depreciation as resourceOPEX.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "cost-chapter-calculations", "locator": "assumption A01 reference; eth-psi-models-2026 cost-input tables" } ] }, { "id": "insurance_premium_allowance", "central": 10, "low": 2, "high": 30, "unit": "CHF2026/kW/year", "rationale": "Unpriced private-policy gap: explicit budget sensitivity only. Not inferred from coverage limit.", "boundary": "Premium cash cost; uninsured tail liability remains unpriced, not zero.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "programme-method", "locator": "accepted private gap; programme obligations.json" } ] }, { "id": "fuel_variable_waste", "central": 15, "low": 10, "high": 30, "unit": "CHF2026/MWh generated", "rationale": "Retain earlier combined allowance; illustrative split10fuel+3variablemaintenance+2waste.", "boundary": "Waste allowance includes ongoing handling/storage contributions; no separate duplicate interim-storage charge.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "cost-chapter-calculations", "locator": "assumption A01" } ] }, { "id": "major_refurbishment_fraction", "central": 0.1, "low": 0.05, "high": 0.2, "unit": "fraction of overnight atyear30", "rationale": "Explicit life-extension/refurbishment allowance, not an operating record.", "boundary": "Additional capital; routine maintenance already in FOM; test extra outage separately.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "programme-method", "locator": "finance.py" } ] }, { "id": "decommissioning_fraction", "central": 0.15, "low": 0.1, "high": 0.3, "unit": "fraction of overnight atlifeend", "rationale": "Sensitivity informed by study practice, not a new Swiss cost study.", "boundary": "Owner sinkingfund contributions and final resource cost are alternative ledgers, not added together.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026", "locator": "STEM decommissioning15%OCC; low andhigh are our sensitivities" } ] }, { "id": "fund_real_return", "central": 0.02, "low": 0, "high": 0.035, "unit": "annual fraction real", "rationale": "Conservative illustrative sinkingfund accumulation; not a STENFO prescribed return.", "boundary": "Funding transfer; residual public/owner obligations depend actual law and solvency.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "programme-method", "locator": "finance.py" } ] }, { "id": "new_nuclear_economic_cf", "central": 0.85, "low": 0.7, "high": 0.93, "unit": "fraction", "rationale": "Steady lifecycle financial scenario; actual referenceunits vary markedly.", "boundary": "Separate from hourly maintenance+0.98availability stress runs; do not apply both.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "nuclear-delivery-calculations", "locator": "reference-performance-summary" } ] }, { "id": "new_nuclear_life", "central": 60, "low": 40, "high": 80, "unit": "years", "rationale": "Central economic life conditional on safety and economics.", "boundary": "Fund horizon matches life; all60years are modeled rather than discardingpost2050 assets.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "nuclear-delivery-calculations", "locator": "technology-matrix; reference claims" } ] }, { "id": "electricity_capture_price", "central": 100, "low": 60, "high": 150, "unit": "CHF2026/MWh", "rationale": "Price sensitivity, not a forecast or householdtariff.", "boundary": "Unsubsidised owner energyrevenue; shape,cannibalisation,hedging andbasis risk unresolved.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "programme-method", "locator": "finance.py ownerNPV atprice grid" } ] }, { "id": "backup_net_efficiency", "central": 0.4, "low": 0.35, "high": 0.5, "unit": "MWh electricity/MWh LHVfuel", "rationale": "Liquidfuel/open-cycle planning assumption pendingbids; efficientCCGT separate.", "boundary": "Net electricplant boundary; not vendoravailabilityguarantee.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "programme-method", "locator": "backup calculations" } ] }, { "id": "ccgt_net_efficiency", "central": 0.55, "low": 0.5, "high": 0.6, "unit": "MWh electricity/MWh LHVfuel", "rationale": "Modern commercialtechnology performance scenario; no Swissplantdesignselected.", "boundary": "Annualpartload/startpenalties excluded fromsimpleexample.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "programme-method", "locator": "backup calculations" } ] }, { "id": "gas_price_lhv", "central": 65, "low": 35, "high": 120, "unit": "CHF2026/MWh LHVfuel", "rationale": "Explicit fuelcoststressrange, not forward quote.", "boundary": "Deliveryandstockprocurement requirecontracts; ifgasunavailable dispatchcapacityzero.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "programme-method", "locator": "backup calculations" } ] }, { "id": "liquid_fuel_price_lhv", "central": 140, "low": 90, "high": 250, "unit": "CHF2026/MWh LHVfuel", "rationale": "HVO/fuel-cost screening only; no bulkSwisssupplyquote.", "boundary": "Inventorypurchase is workingcapital beforeuse; activationconsumesfuel once.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "programme-method", "locator": "backup calculations" } ] }, { "id": "carbon_price", "central": 100, "low": 50, "high": 200, "unit": "CHF2026/tCO2", "rationale": "Sensitivity only; actual ETS/compensation scope legallydetermined.", "boundary": "Pricefossil combustion separately; HVOrequireslifecyclecertificate, not assumedzeroimpact.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "programme-method", "locator": "backup calculations" } ] }, { "id": "backup_variable_om", "central": 10, "low": 5, "high": 25, "unit": "CHF2026/MWh", "rationale": "ProvisionaldispatchO&M allowance excludingfuelandreadiness.", "boundary": "Do not add constructionannuity when usingfullreadinessservicefee.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "programme-method", "locator": "backup calculations" } ] }, { "id": "nuclear_fuel_resilience_target", "central": 2, "low": 1, "high": 3, "unit": "reload batches perunit", "rationale": "Recommendedcontracttarget, not observedexistinginventory.", "boundary": "Coverconversion,enrichment,fabrication,transportandstorage; no claimofcompletesovereignty.", "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "recommended_analyst_assumption_unless_stated", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "nuclear-delivery-calculations", "locator": "swiss-delivery-evidence fuel-resilience rows" } ] } ], "all_cases": [ { "natural_release_gwh": 18184.37528317421, "natural_spill_gwh": 1547.5887168257264, "imports_gwh": 8385.4430055346, "exports_gwh": 10825.255378293674, "unserved_gwh": 736.343858823813, "curtailment_gwh": 2904.726140929793, "nant_de_drance_charge_gwh": 712.6764874722473, "nant_de_drance_discharge_gwh": 570.1411899777978, "limmern_charge_gwh": 813.8837009629171, "limmern_discharge_gwh": 651.1069607703337, "hongrin_leman_charge_gwh": 462.35760166849246, "hongrin_leman_discharge_gwh": 369.8860813347924, "grimsel2_charge_gwh": 391.33028486158366, "grimsel2_discharge_gwh": 313.0642278892675, "unserved_peak_gw": 1.1952818030884564, "shortage_hours": 646, "solve_seconds": 23.751207944995258, "audit": { "max_equation_residual_gwh": 1.6640022693081846e-12, "max_bound_violation": 0.0, "max_inequality_violation": 0.0, "simultaneous_max_gw": 0.0, "hours": 8784, 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"battery_max_gwh": 10000, "export_gw": 8, "battery_power_chf_per_kw": 600, "battery_energy_chf_per_kwh": 225, "import_gw": 2 }, "hours": 8784, "final_demand_gwh": 76441.11236184946, "bus_demand_gwh": 81820.34286186245, "solar_gwh": 30644.710888546342, "nuclear_gwh": 17725.80096, "river_gwh": 16652.16, "reservoir_inflow_gwh": 19731.964, "winter_shortfall_gwh": 736.343858823813, "summer_shortfall_gwh": 0.0, "winter_imports_gwh": 7605.649842343707, "winter_net_imports_gwh": 6258.948157171305, "partitions": [ { "season": "winter", "period": "day", "hours": 1849, "demand_gwh": 18820.75671891997, "shortfall_gwh": 219.11403753283173, "imports_gwh": 2713.8755452173655 }, { "season": "winter", "period": "night", "hours": 2543, "demand_gwh": 25812.87681129328, "shortfall_gwh": 517.2298212909812, "imports_gwh": 4891.7742971263415 }, { "season": "summer", "period": "day", "hours": 2607, "demand_gwh": 24219.489960318624, "shortfall_gwh": 0.0, "imports_gwh": 260.9526572666913 }, { "season": 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2112.6006712127964, "hongrin_leman_charge_gwh": 1145.1538569712293, "hongrin_leman_discharge_gwh": 916.1230855769785, "grimsel2_charge_gwh": 1042.8549792926285, "grimsel2_discharge_gwh": 834.2839834341056, "unserved_peak_gw": 4.041139075037035, "shortage_hours": 1926, "solve_seconds": 32.28328620400862, "audit": { "max_equation_residual_gwh": 1.3815615318435448e-12, "max_bound_violation": 2.842170943040401e-14, "max_inequality_violation": 0.0, "simultaneous_max_gw": 0.0, "hours": 8760, "minimum_shortfall_gwh": 6263.81470813325, "initial_final_stocks_gwh": { "natural_stock": 8497.329673078119, "nant_de_drance_stock": 15.42102120192456, "limmern_stock": 34.536725, "hongrin_leman_stock": 98.23009189316036, "grimsel2_stock": 54.36500000000001 } }, "case": { "id": "2017-2050-3new-no-lto-routine", "year": 2017, "forced": false, "imports": 2, "extra_twh": 0.86, "variant": "2050_fleet", "target_year": 2050, "new_units": 3, "new_unit_gw": 1.1, "existing_goesgen_leibstadt": false, "solar_gwp": 53, "forced_unit": null, "dc_total_twh": 3.2 }, "options": { "pumped_stores": [ { "id": "nant_de_drance", "pump_gw": 0.9, "turbine_gw": 0.9, "deliverable_energy_gwh": 20, "roundtrip_efficiency": 0.8 }, { "id": "limmern", "pump_gw": 1, "turbine_gw": 1, "deliverable_energy_gwh": 35.536725, "roundtrip_efficiency": 0.8 }, { "id": "hongrin_leman", "pump_gw": 0.42, "turbine_gw": 0.42, "deliverable_energy_gwh": 100, "roundtrip_efficiency": 0.8 }, { "id": "grimsel2", "pump_gw": 0.392, "turbine_gw": 0.388, "deliverable_energy_gwh": 55.917, "roundtrip_efficiency": 0.8 } ], "natural_capacity_gwh": 8510.546275, "natural_turbine_gw": 9.20488, "battery_rte": 0.85, "battery_max_gw": 20, "battery_max_gwh": 10000, "export_gw": 8, "battery_power_chf_per_kw": 600, "battery_energy_chf_per_kwh": 225, "import_gw": 2 }, "hours": 8760, "final_demand_gwh": 97453.11713620421, "bus_demand_gwh": 103673.52886830235, "solar_gwh": 63835.30545812143, "nuclear_gwh": 26027.232000000004, "river_gwh": 15133.16, "reservoir_inflow_gwh": 16942.576, "winter_shortfall_gwh": 6145.17162256703, "summer_shortfall_gwh": 118.64308556632355, "winter_imports_gwh": 7345.560585096418, "winter_net_imports_gwh": 4014.276705714913, "partitions": [ { "season": "winter", "period": "day", "hours": 1836, "demand_gwh": 22554.633190300763, "shortfall_gwh": 1272.1572102359437, "imports_gwh": 2281.5605850964184 }, { "season": "winter", "period": "night", "hours": 2532, "demand_gwh": 33314.16958581703, "shortfall_gwh": 4873.014412331086, "imports_gwh": 5064.0 }, { "season": "summer", "period": "day", "hours": 2606, "demand_gwh": 31231.30886561374, "shortfall_gwh": 37.5441073143031, "imports_gwh": 271.2690782991499 }, { "season": "summer", "period": "night", "hours": 1786, "demand_gwh": 16573.417226570837, "shortfall_gwh": 81.09897825202044, "imports_gwh": 732.534438481656 } ], "effective_loss_fraction": 0.05999999999999994 }, { "natural_release_gwh": 14708.063999999948, "natural_spill_gwh": 0.0, "imports_gwh": 9775.998906181689, "exports_gwh": 16698.089304926936, "unserved_gwh": 6723.767464304382, "curtailment_gwh": 20462.954323100013, "nant_de_drance_charge_gwh": 2381.4181873076477, "nant_de_drance_discharge_gwh": 1905.1345498461183, "limmern_charge_gwh": 2688.4892400944873, "limmern_discharge_gwh": 2150.79139207559, "hongrin_leman_charge_gwh": 1160.6406850050025, "hongrin_leman_discharge_gwh": 928.5125480039969, "grimsel2_charge_gwh": 1068.7231953978473, "grimsel2_discharge_gwh": 854.9785563182804, "unserved_peak_gw": 2.0641004717024196, "shortage_hours": 3395, "solve_seconds": 46.64921351399971, "audit": { "max_equation_residual_gwh": 1.5099033134902129e-12, "max_bound_violation": 3.3306690738754696e-16, "max_inequality_violation": 0.0, "simultaneous_max_gw": 0.0, "hours": 8760, "minimum_shortfall_gwh": 6723.767464303899, "initial_final_stocks_gwh": { "natural_stock": 8484.418392355245, "nant_de_drance_stock": 14.922203841120066, "limmern_stock": 33.358003104926986, "hongrin_leman_stock": 99.91750813602663, "grimsel2_stock": 53.408199999999994 } }, "case": { "id": "2022-2050-3new-no-lto", "year": 2022, "forced": true, "imports": 2, "extra_twh": 0.86, "variant": "2050_fleet", "target_year": 2050, "new_units": 3, "new_unit_gw": 1.1, "existing_goesgen_leibstadt": false, "solar_gwp": 53, "forced_unit": "new_unit_1", "dc_total_twh": 3.2 }, "options": { "pumped_stores": [ { "id": "nant_de_drance", "pump_gw": 0.9, "turbine_gw": 0.9, "deliverable_energy_gwh": 20, "roundtrip_efficiency": 0.8 }, { "id": "limmern", "pump_gw": 1, "turbine_gw": 1, "deliverable_energy_gwh": 35.536725, "roundtrip_efficiency": 0.8 }, { "id": "hongrin_leman", "pump_gw": 0.42, "turbine_gw": 0.42, "deliverable_energy_gwh": 100, "roundtrip_efficiency": 0.8 }, { "id": "grimsel2", "pump_gw": 0.392, "turbine_gw": 0.388, "deliverable_energy_gwh": 55.917, "roundtrip_efficiency": 0.8 } ], "natural_capacity_gwh": 8510.546275, "natural_turbine_gw": 9.20488, "battery_rte": 0.85, "battery_max_gw": 20, "battery_max_gwh": 10000, "export_gw": 8, "battery_power_chf_per_kw": 600, "battery_energy_chf_per_kwh": 225, "import_gw": 2 }, "hours": 8760, "final_demand_gwh": 96713.28138271377, "bus_demand_gwh": 102886.46955607849, "solar_gwh": 68237.83907518041, "nuclear_gwh": 23673.958000000006, "river_gwh": 14690.199999999997, "reservoir_inflow_gwh": 14708.063999999998, "winter_shortfall_gwh": 6468.565412395023, "summer_shortfall_gwh": 255.20205190935988, "winter_imports_gwh": 7190.509590219965, "winter_net_imports_gwh": 3171.1116354855667, "partitions": [ { "season": "winter", "period": "day", "hours": 1837, "demand_gwh": 22112.19901012815, "shortfall_gwh": 1413.6730416273717, "imports_gwh": 2128.5095902199646 }, { "season": "winter", "period": "night", "hours": 2531, "demand_gwh": 32444.836842453115, "shortfall_gwh": 5054.892370767651, "imports_gwh": 5062.0 }, { "season": "summer", "period": "day", "hours": 2606, "demand_gwh": 31759.032792058348, "shortfall_gwh": 67.72720958655793, "imports_gwh": 758.1114141466377 }, { "season": "summer", "period": "night", "hours": 1786, "demand_gwh": 16570.400911438872, "shortfall_gwh": 187.47484232280198, "imports_gwh": 1827.3779018150876 } ], "effective_loss_fraction": 0.05999999999999994 }, { "natural_release_gwh": 14708.064000000028, "natural_spill_gwh": 0.0, "imports_gwh": 9706.153012231774, "exports_gwh": 16932.382840401653, "unserved_gwh": 4980.5129191525575, "curtailment_gwh": 20721.28827991092, "nant_de_drance_charge_gwh": 2414.992027617494, "nant_de_drance_discharge_gwh": 1931.9936220939949, "limmern_charge_gwh": 2720.3948745881808, "limmern_discharge_gwh": 2176.315899670545, "hongrin_leman_charge_gwh": 1183.0964455593812, "hongrin_leman_discharge_gwh": 946.4771564475, "grimsel2_charge_gwh": 1089.1583031035057, "grimsel2_discharge_gwh": 871.3266424828062, "unserved_peak_gw": 1.5365272747394563, "shortage_hours": 3324, "solve_seconds": 41.962125275982544, "audit": { "max_equation_residual_gwh": 1.5099033134902129e-12, "max_bound_violation": 0.0, "max_inequality_violation": 0.0, "simultaneous_max_gw": 0.0, "hours": 8760, "minimum_shortfall_gwh": 4980.512919152159, "initial_final_stocks_gwh": { "natural_stock": 8491.566325245247, "nant_de_drance_stock": 14.435308185423413, "limmern_stock": 25.365262640390885, "hongrin_leman_stock": 98.9568765663806, "grimsel2_stock": 55.529 } }, "case": { "id": "2022-2050-3new-no-lto-routine", "year": 2022, "forced": false, "imports": 2, "extra_twh": 0.86, "variant": "2050_fleet", "target_year": 2050, "new_units": 3, "new_unit_gw": 1.1, "existing_goesgen_leibstadt": false, "solar_gwp": 53, "forced_unit": null, "dc_total_twh": 3.2 }, "options": { "pumped_stores": [ { "id": "nant_de_drance", "pump_gw": 0.9, "turbine_gw": 0.9, "deliverable_energy_gwh": 20, "roundtrip_efficiency": 0.8 }, { "id": "limmern", "pump_gw": 1, "turbine_gw": 1, "deliverable_energy_gwh": 35.536725, "roundtrip_efficiency": 0.8 }, { "id": "hongrin_leman", "pump_gw": 0.42, "turbine_gw": 0.42, "deliverable_energy_gwh": 100, "roundtrip_efficiency": 0.8 }, { "id": "grimsel2", "pump_gw": 0.392, "turbine_gw": 0.388, "deliverable_energy_gwh": 55.917, "roundtrip_efficiency": 0.8 } ], "natural_capacity_gwh": 8510.546275, "natural_turbine_gw": 9.20488, "battery_rte": 0.85, "battery_max_gw": 20, "battery_max_gwh": 10000, "export_gw": 8, "battery_power_chf_per_kw": 600, "battery_energy_chf_per_kwh": 225, "import_gw": 2 }, "hours": 8760, "final_demand_gwh": 96713.28138271377, "bus_demand_gwh": 102886.46955607849, "solar_gwh": 68237.83907518041, "nuclear_gwh": 26001.360000000008, "river_gwh": 14690.199999999997, "reservoir_inflow_gwh": 14708.063999999998, "winter_shortfall_gwh": 4754.617185057593, "summer_shortfall_gwh": 225.89573409496444, "winter_imports_gwh": 7120.663696270043, "winter_net_imports_gwh": 2866.972206060928, "partitions": [ { "season": "winter", "period": "day", "hours": 1837, "demand_gwh": 22112.19901012815, "shortfall_gwh": 1018.8473616092506, "imports_gwh": 2058.663696270043 }, { "season": "winter", "period": "night", "hours": 2531, "demand_gwh": 32444.836842453115, "shortfall_gwh": 3735.7698234483414, "imports_gwh": 5062.0 }, { "season": "summer", "period": "day", "hours": 2606, "demand_gwh": 31759.032792058348, "shortfall_gwh": 65.60983181316136, "imports_gwh": 769.1329916417707 }, { "season": "summer", "period": "night", "hours": 1786, "demand_gwh": 16570.400911438872, "shortfall_gwh": 160.28590228180303, "imports_gwh": 1816.356324319962 } ], "effective_loss_fraction": 0.05999999999999994 } ], "owner_assumptions": { "as_of": "2026-09-18", "evidence_status": "illustrative_analyst_cashflow_scenario_not_Swiss_bid", "currency": "constant2026CHF", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "programme-method", "locator": "programme_evidence/finance.py; recommended-inputs.json" }, { "source_id": "cost-chapter-calculations", "locator": "Earlier A01 broad cost sensitivity, not a Swiss quote" }, { "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026", "locator": "STEM15%decommissioning assumption; no adoption of whole-study optimum" } ], "construction_profile": [ 0.03, 0.06, 0.1, 0.14, 0.17, 0.17, 0.14, 0.1, 0.06, 0.03 ], "construction_years_before_cod": [ -10, -9, -8, -7, -6, -5, -4, -3, -2, -1 ], "development_fraction": 0.05, "attributable_grid_fraction": 0.05, "first_core_fraction": 0.01, "fixed_om_chf_kw_year": 240, "insurance_allowance_chf_kw_year": 10, "variable_cost_split_chf_mwh": { "fuel": 10, "routine_variable": 3, "waste_handling_storage": 2 }, "refurbishment_fraction": 0.1, "refurbishment_operating_year": 30, "decommissioning_fraction": 0.15, "fund_real_return": 0.02, "boundaries": [ "No learning discount for unit2. No cost estimate is a vendor quote.", "Financing carry is a diagnostic, not another cash outflow added to discounted capital.", "Annual decommissioning contributions are owner transfers; terminal decom resource cost is a separate ledger, not also deducted in owner cashflow.", "Generation85% financialCF differs from maintenance+98% hourly availability scenarios; never multiply both.", "Insurance premium is an assumed budget. Coverage exclusions/uninsuredtail remain an unpriced liability.", "Waste allowance is provisional; do not add another interim-storage fee without disaggregating it.", "No householdtariff, full national programmeNPV or optimized technology ranking inferred." ] }, "owner_units": [ { "unit": "new_1", "cod": 2047, "overnight_chf_kw": 10000, "real_wacc": 0.07, "capacity_factor": 0.85, "capture_price_chf_mwh": 100, "economic_life_years": 60, "generation_twh_year": 8.1906, "overnight_chf": 11000000000, "development_grid_core_chf": 1210000000.0, "preoperation_cash_total_chf": 12210000000.0, "capital_value_at_cod_chf": 17907386559.76198, "financing_carry_diagnostic_chf": 5697386559.761978, "decom_fund_contribution_chf_year": 14467143.612580426, "decom_terminal_resource_chf": 1650000000.0, "break_even_capture_price_chf_mwh": 202.14877210239334, "owner_npv_at_cod_chf": -12150175030.007364, "discount_convention": "Mid-year real flows, valued at COD; generation represented as equal annual lifecycle output, not an hourly dispatch forecast." }, { "unit": "new_2", "cod": 2050, "overnight_chf_kw": 10000, "real_wacc": 0.07, "capacity_factor": 0.85, "capture_price_chf_mwh": 100, "economic_life_years": 60, "generation_twh_year": 8.1906, "overnight_chf": 11000000000, "development_grid_core_chf": 1210000000.0, "preoperation_cash_total_chf": 12210000000.0, "capital_value_at_cod_chf": 17907386559.76198, "financing_carry_diagnostic_chf": 5697386559.761978, "decom_fund_contribution_chf_year": 14467143.612580426, "decom_terminal_resource_chf": 1650000000.0, "break_even_capture_price_chf_mwh": 202.14877210239334, "owner_npv_at_cod_chf": -12150175030.007364, "discount_convention": "Mid-year real flows, valued at COD; generation represented as equal annual lifecycle output, not an hourly dispatch forecast." } ], "backup": { "as_of": "2026-09-18", "source_refs": [ { "source_id": "reserve-credit-message-2026", "locator": "sections3.2.3,3.2.10 and3.3;1880m,300m,583MW,15years,16days,10weeks" }, { "source_id": "programme-method", "locator": "finance.py explicit fuel/price/efficiency assumptions" }, { "source_id": "bafu-combustion-factors-2025", "locator": "p3 Table2,2024gas56.0tCO2/TJ;1MWh=.0036TJ" } ], "published_readiness_chf_kw_year_nominal_average": 214.97998856489423, "readiness_with_contingency_chf_kw_year_nominal_average": 249.2853058890795, "scaled_2500mw_readiness_chf_year_nominal_average": 537449971.4122356, "scaled_2500mw_with_contingency_chf_year_nominal_average": 623213264.7226987, "scale_status": "Mechanicalscaleofaveragecontractserviceprice; notSwissbid orconstant2026CHF. Includescapitalrecovery; do notaddanotherconstructionannuity.", "published_583mw_sixteen_day_stock_twhe": 0.223872, "published_583mw_ten_week_output_twhe": 0.9794400000000001, "stock_boundary": "Full-load energy equivalents before availability/partload penalties. Tenweeks is securedresupply contractrequirement, notphysicalonsitestock.", "liquid_efficiency_assumed": 0.4, "liquid_lhv_kwh_litre_assumed": 9.6, "severe_4_2twhe_fuel_litres": 1093750000.0, "published_stock_equivalent_litres": 58300000.0, "liquid_variable_cost_chf_mwh": 360.0, "liquid_4_2twhe_variable_cost_chf": 1512000000.0, "gas_variable_cost_excluding_carbon_chf_mwh": 128.1818181818182, "gas_4_2twhe_variable_cost_excluding_carbon_chf": 538363636.3636364, "gas_combustion_factor_tco2_mwh_lhv": 0.2016, "gas_carbon_price_assumed_chf_tonne": 100, "gas_variable_cost_including_assumed_carbon_chf_mwh": 164.83636363636364, "gas_4_2twhe_combustion_mtco2": 1.539490909090909, "emissions_status": "BAFU2025 Table2 reports56.0tCO2/TJ for2024gas, convertedto0.2016t/MWhLHV. VerifyactualfuelcertificateandapplicableETS/compensation; carbonprice100CHF/tisanassumption. HVOupstreamimpactnotzero; notestimatedhere.", "fuel_inventory_working_capital_chf": 78355200.0, "inventory_boundary": "Illustrativeinitialfuelworkingcapital, recoveredthroughfuelactivationorstockresale. Do notaddinitialinventoryagainasconsumedactivationfuel.", "routine_and_outage_boundary": "Total4.2TWhisillustrativecombinedseverewintercover, not4.2plus2routine. Newheat/hydroimportstresscasescanrequiremore.", "regular_winter_options": [ { "service": "regular winter energy", "candidate": "Existing/new market-permitted generation, firmdeliveryimports, efficiency orhydroseasonalshift underpaidcontracts", "central_procurement_gwh": 2000, "date": "2033 beforeBeznau1exit", "status": "recommendation;notprocured" }, { "service": "prompt contingency power", "candidate": "Hydro/battery/fastgeneration prearmedandcontracted; bridge48hreservewarning", "power_gw": 2.5, "status": "base-screenenvelope; coldheatrestrictionraisesrequirement; noengineeringN-1orfrequencycertification" }, { "service": "prolonged severe season", "candidate": "Paid additionalfirmenergy/fuel/logistics; ordinarymarketpermission ifroutineuse", "energy_gwh": 4200, "status": "base-screenenvelope; conditionalnotcompleteallstresscoverage" } ] }, "ev": [ { "id": "sales-paced", "bev_stock": 1439084.5155145188, "annual_km": 12000, "battery_kwh_km": 0.18, "charging_efficiency": 0.9, "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95, "phev_stock_assumed": 600000, "phev_electric_km_fraction_assumed": 0.3, "bev_electricity_twh": 3.281112695373102, "phev_electricity_twh": 0.4104, "road_cars_twh": 3.691512695373102, "old_road_cars_twh": 5.597994733481102, "change_twh": -1.9064820381080003, "status": "analyst_fleet_energy_scenario", "boundary": "Replace the whole road_cars component. Other road modes unchanged. No extra road-activity growth on top of the explicit future fleet and km. Foreign-car/PHEV allocation remains uncertain; no observed national total is asserted." }, { "id": "bfe", "bev_stock": 2100000, "annual_km": 12000, "battery_kwh_km": 0.18, "charging_efficiency": 0.9, "domestic_charging_multiplier": 0.95, "phev_stock_assumed": 600000, "phev_electric_km_fraction_assumed": 0.3, "bev_electricity_twh": 4.788, "phev_electricity_twh": 0.4104, "road_cars_twh": 5.1984, "old_road_cars_twh": 5.597994733481102, "change_twh": -0.3995947334811021, "status": "analyst_fleet_energy_scenario", "boundary": "Replace the whole road_cars component. Other road modes unchanged. No extra road-activity growth on top of the explicit future fleet and km. Foreign-car/PHEV allocation remains uncertain; no observed national total is asserted." } ], "claim_ids": [ "programme-2012-dc-routine-winter", "programme-2012-dc-outage-winter", "programme-2013-dc-routine-winter", "programme-2013-dc-outage-winter", "programme-2014-dc-routine-winter", "programme-2014-dc-outage-winter", "programme-2015-dc-routine-winter", "programme-2015-dc-outage-winter", "programme-2016-dc-routine-winter", "programme-2016-dc-outage-winter", "programme-2017-dc-routine-winter", "programme-2017-dc-outage-winter", "programme-2018-dc-routine-winter", "programme-2018-dc-outage-winter", "programme-2019-dc-routine-winter", "programme-2019-dc-outage-winter", "programme-2020-dc-routine-winter", "programme-2020-dc-outage-winter", "programme-2021-dc-routine-winter", "programme-2021-dc-outage-winter", "programme-2022-dc-routine-winter", "programme-2022-dc-outage-winter", "programme-2023-dc-routine-winter", "programme-2023-dc-outage-winter", "programme-2024-dc-routine-winter", "programme-2024-dc-outage-winter", "programme-routine-winter-max", "programme-routine-offer-start", "programme-2012-2050-2new-lto-winter", "programme-2012-2050-2new-lto-peak", "programme-2017-2050-2new-lto-winter", "programme-2017-2050-2new-lto-peak", "programme-2022-2050-2new-lto-winter", "programme-2022-2050-2new-lto-peak", "programme-2012-2050-1new-lto-winter", "programme-2012-2050-1new-lto-peak", "programme-2017-2050-1new-lto-winter", "programme-2017-2050-1new-lto-peak", "programme-2022-2050-1new-lto-winter", "programme-2022-2050-1new-lto-peak", "programme-2012-2050-2new-no-lto-winter", "programme-2012-2050-2new-no-lto-peak", "programme-2017-2050-2new-no-lto-winter", "programme-2017-2050-2new-no-lto-peak", "programme-2022-2050-2new-no-lto-winter", "programme-2022-2050-2new-no-lto-peak", "programme-2012-2050-3new-no-lto-winter", "programme-2012-2050-3new-no-lto-peak", "programme-2017-2050-3new-no-lto-winter", "programme-2017-2050-3new-no-lto-peak", "programme-2022-2050-3new-no-lto-winter", "programme-2022-2050-3new-no-lto-peak", "programme-2012-2050-2new-lto-routine-winter", "programme-2012-2050-2new-lto-routine-peak", "programme-2017-2050-2new-lto-routine-winter", "programme-2017-2050-2new-lto-routine-peak", "programme-2022-2050-2new-lto-routine-winter", "programme-2022-2050-2new-lto-routine-peak", "programme-2050-winter-day", "programme-2050-winter-night", "programme-2050-reference-demand", "programme-units", "programme-unit-power", "programme-first-operation", "programme-second-operation", "programme-solar-2050", "programme-2017-dc-import1-outage-winter", "programme-2017-dc-import1-outage-peak", "programme-2017-dc-import0-outage-winter", "programme-2017-dc-import0-outage-peak", "programme-2017-dc-coldheat-outage-winter", "programme-2017-dc-coldheat-outage-peak", "programme-2012-dc-coldheat-outage-winter", "programme-2012-dc-coldheat-outage-peak", "programme-2017-dc-hydro-restricted-winter", "programme-2017-dc-hydro-restricted-peak", "programme-2017-2050-2new-lto-dc10-winter", "programme-2017-2050-2new-lto-dc10-peak", "programme-finance-3", "programme-finance-5", "programme-finance-7", "programme-finance-10", "programme-overnight", "programme-allowances", "programme-preoperation", "programme-budget-low", "programme-budget-high", "programme-backup-stock", "programme-backup-fuel-litres", "programme-ev-sales-paced", "programme-ev-bfe", "programme-2035-outage-summer-max" ], "limits": [ "The 2035 comparison covers thirteen weather years; the 2050 fleet comparison covers three selected years only.", "Routine operation and exceptional outages remain separate; do not add their full shortfalls.", "2050 exceptional outage removes the first new 1.1 GW reactor for January–March; 2035 removes Leibstadt.", "Hydro is pooled, forecasts perfect, and the domestic grid unconstrained. Actual cascade access, heating profiles and combined stress remain unresolved.", "Financial 85% lifetime output differs from hourly maintenance plus 98% availability; do not multiply these assumptions together.", "Costs have different boundaries and price years. No national total, final reserve specification, household tariff or guaranteed sovereignty is established." ] }