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Publication day is not established by this audit." }, { "id": "kkl-2021-full", "title": "Geschäftsbericht 2021", "publisher": "Kernkraftwerk Leibstadt AG", "url": "https://www.kkl.ch/fileadmin/seiteninhalt/Dateien/01_Unternehmen/E_Publikationen/Geschaftsberichte/Geschaeftsbericht_2021.pdf", "edition": "2021", "publication_date": null, "retrieved_at": "2026-09-09T08:45:19.412631+00:00", "reviewed_at": "2026-09-26", "status": "previously_archived_original", "locator": "Das Betriebsjahr 2021, printed page 4:24 May–3 December revision and actual grid return 3 December. Finanzieller Überblick, printed page 7:193-day revision.", "artifacts": [ { "path": "backups/enrichment-2026-09-09/sources/kkl-2021-full.pdf", "sha256": "36c444aac8225088e7c88405bbcbb549bb8d21fb4c395c751f16e43f19cd7812", "bytes": 8690580 }, { "path": "backups/enrichment-2026-09-09/sources/kkl-2021-full.txt", "sha256": "875891274192f23ba444ba0efa488d4cdb44dd1e18adf3ad5e4cbbdaf24251d4", "bytes": 116316 }, { "path": "backups/enrichment-2026-09-09/sources/kkl-2021-full.metadata.json", "sha256": "bbe750d919f3a2774e263c885bddc50c0860dedd372aa1ac581fd324310ed41a", "bytes": 712 } ], "note": "Original PDF retained; page-specific passages reviewed. Publication day is not established by this audit." }, { "id": "ensi-restart-2017-reader", "url": "https://ensi.admin.ch/de/2017/02/16/ensi-erteilt-kernkraftwerk-leibstadt-freigabe-zum-wiederanfahren-unter-auflagen/", "publisher": "ENSI", "publication_date": "2017-02-16", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-26", "locator": "Main article, start of outage and reduced-power conditions", "status": "selected_reader_extraction", "original_archived": false, "artifacts": [ { "path": "backups/programme-calibration-2026-09-26/ensi.reader.json", "sha256": "2db358abc76418866fd4dfdea44c4341d37d27a176689f912262ac1d41f40763", "bytes": 29045 } ] }, { "id": "ensi-restart-december-2017-reader", "url": "https://ensi.admin.ch/de/2017/12/16/ensi-erteilt-kernkraftwerk-leibstadt-freigabe-zum-wiederanfahren-und-verlaengert-auflagen/", "publisher": "ENSI", "publication_date": "2017-12-16", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-26", "locator": "Main article, autumn revision and continued fuel restrictions", "status": "selected_reader_extraction", "original_archived": false, "artifacts": [ { "path": "backups/programme-calibration-2026-09-26/ensi.reader.json", "sha256": "2db358abc76418866fd4dfdea44c4341d37d27a176689f912262ac1d41f40763", "bytes": 29045 } ] }, { "id": "ensi-restart-2018-reader", "url": "https://ensi.admin.ch/de/2018/10/31/ensi-gibt-wiederanfahren-des-kernkraftwerks-leibstadt-frei/", "publisher": "ENSI", "publication_date": "2018-10-31", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-26", "locator": "Main article, seven-week revision and continuing derating", "status": "selected_reader_extraction", "original_archived": false, "artifacts": [ { "path": "backups/programme-calibration-2026-09-26/ensi.reader.json", "sha256": "2db358abc76418866fd4dfdea44c4341d37d27a176689f912262ac1d41f40763", "bytes": 29045 } ] }, { "id": "ensi-annual-2017-reader", "url": "https://ensi.admin.ch/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2018/06/ENSI_Aufsichtsbericht_2017_web.pdf", "publisher": "ENSI", "publication_date": "2018", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-26", "locator": "Sections 4.1–4.2, printed pages 51–52", "status": "selected_reader_extraction", "original_archived": false, "artifacts": [ { "path": "backups/programme-calibration-2026-09-26/ensi-annual-2017.reader.json", "sha256": "2573d0b465700b231425c91b645362103f9efdcdb06a22673eec4eb6c80cf37a", "bytes": 27865 } ] }, { "id": "ensi-goesgen-restart-2026", "title": "Gösgen restart permission after the extended shutdown", "publisher": "Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (ENSI)", "kind": "primary", "url": "https://ensi.admin.ch/de/2026/03/23/ensi-erteilt-dem-kkw-goesgen-die-freigabe-zum-wiederanfahren/", "publicationDate": "2026-03-23", "edition": "Restart decision of 23 March 2026", "retrievedAt": "2026-09-16T15:18:49.346Z", "reviewedAt": "2026-09-16", "locator": "Opening summary and paragraphs on the 24 May 2025 shutdown, feedwater-system findings, valve replacement and restart permission", "artifacts": [ { "path": "backups/website-nuclear-history-2026-09-16/ensi-goesgen-restart-2026.reader.json", "sha256": "0c09d93f067d4b8f33214b7fbe954adf09a225e0fd7de4772665e752c40fc366", "bytes": 14678 } ], "note": "ENSI describes a ten-month shutdown. The retained evidence is a web-reader extraction of this publication.", "status": "existing_catalogue_entry", "reviewed_for_calibration": "2026-09-26" }, { "id": "ensi-kkl-permit-2021-reader", "title": "Nach Revision im KKW Leibstadt: ENSI genehmigt Wiederanfahren", "publisher": "ENSI", "url": "https://ensi.admin.ch/de/2021/12/06/nach-revision-im-kkw-leibstadt-ensi-genehmigt-wiederanfahren-2/", "publication_date": "2021-12-06", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-18T21:26:27.546212+00:00", "reviewed_at": "2026-09-26", "status": "previously_archived_reader_extraction", "original_archived": false, "locator": "responses[\"12\"], second source, lead and opening article paragraphs: permission 1 December 2021.", "artifacts": [ { "path": "backups/programme-2050-2026-09-18/reviewed-reader.json", "sha256": "9ccb6991fffc05f2b6ba3229e2b21caafe461dc7cc29de325bee286f2ee8ae41", "bytes": 202568 } ] }, { "id": "kkg-grid-return-2026", "url": "https://www.kkg.ch/de/uns/medienmitteilungen/kkg-stromproduktion-aufgenommen-755.html", "resolved_url": "https://www.kkg.ch/de/uns/medienmitteilungen/kkg-stromproduktion-aufgenommen-755.html", "publisher": "Kernkraftwerk Gösgen-Däniken AG", "title": "KKG hat Stromproduktion wieder aufgenommen", "publication_date": "2026-03-23", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-26T00:50:33.297686+00:00", "http_status": 200, "path": "backups/programme-followup-2026-09-26/outages/kkg-grid-return-2026.html", "sha256": "ed59466158181da0cb64f5b9fc66c4fe6ee46e9446ac429cfe8bb38fe7e9cd83", "bytes": 213193, "locator": "Opening paragraph: grid return on 23 March 2026 at 13:00 local time; full-power ramp expected over subsequent days.", "artifacts": [ { "path": "backups/programme-followup-2026-09-26/outages/kkg-grid-return-2026.html", "sha256": "ed59466158181da0cb64f5b9fc66c4fe6ee46e9446ac429cfe8bb38fe7e9cd83", "bytes": 213193 }, { "path": "backups/programme-followup-2026-09-26/outages/kkg-grid-return-2026.txt", "sha256": "412cd12b2535469dd2358ca15d82018bc947a04d52728e6ebd298c88f74d673f", "bytes": 9339 } ], "status": "archived_original", "reviewed_at": "2026-09-26" } ], "events": [ { "id": "leibstadt-2016-2017", "plant": "Leibstadt", "start_date": "2016-08-02", "restart_permission_date": "2017-02-16", "initial_restart_date": "2017-02-17", "sustained_power_return_date": "2017-02-20", "winter": "2016/17", "cause": "Fuel inspections after findings during the annual revision, followed by operating restrictions. An initial restart on 17 February was interrupted by an off-gas-system fault.", "evidence": [ { "source_id": "kkl-2016-full", "locator": "Printed pp 6–7/PDF p 4: revision began 2 August 2016." }, { "source_id": "kkl-2017-full", "locator": "Printed pp 12–13/PDF p 7: initial restart 17 February and return 20 February 2017." }, { "source_id": "ensi-restart-2017-reader", "locator": "16 February 2017 permission article, lines 381–388 in archived extraction." }, { "source_id": "ensi-annual-2017-reader", "locator": "Printed pp 51–52: power-operation chronology and conditions." } ], "date_limit": "20 February is the resumed power-operation date after the 17 February startup interruption. Do not present the whole interval as a verified uninterrupted zero-output period at hourly resolution." }, { "id": "leibstadt-autumn-2017", "plant": "Leibstadt", "start_date": "2017-09-18", "restart_permission_date": "2017-12-16", "grid_return_date": "2017-12-18", "permitted_maximum_date": "2017-12-22", "winter": "2017/18", "cause": "Planned major component replacement lasted 50 days; subsequent fuel-supplier quality-assurance findings required fuel replacement and a revised core approval. A further trip occurred 21 December, with return 22 December.", "evidence": [ { "source_id": "kkl-2017-full", "locator": "Printed pp 6–7/PDF p 4 and pp 12–13/PDF p 7." }, { "source_id": "ensi-restart-december-2017-reader", "locator": "16 December 2017 permission article, lines 372–384." }, { "source_id": "ensi-annual-2017-reader", "locator": "Printed p 52, lines 2569–2570:18 December grid synchronisation; lines 2541–2543:21 December trip and 22 December permitted maximum." } ], "date_limit": "Restart permission, grid synchronisation and permitted maximum power are distinct events. Output restrictions continued after restart." }, { "id": "leibstadt-autumn-2018", "plant": "Leibstadt", "start_date": "2018-09-17", "restart_permission_date": "2018-10-31", "grid_return_date": "2018-11-02", "winter": "2018/19", "cause": "A four-week planned revision extended to about seven weeks after repair work on a weld in an emergency-cooling system. Reduced reactor output continued after return.", "evidence": [ { "source_id": "kkl-2018-full", "locator": "Printed p 7 states 17 September shutdown and 2 November connection to the grid; printed p 4 reports cycle start 2 November." }, { "source_id": "ensi-restart-2018-reader", "locator": "31 October 2018 permission article, lines 381–391: seven-week revision, about three weeks longer than planned; continuing restrictions." } ], "date_limit": "The previously unresolved actual grid-return date is now established by the archived operator PDF. The 73% annual capacity factor also reflects derating, not only the full outage." }, { "id": "leibstadt-2021", "plant": "Leibstadt", "start_date": "2021-05-24", "restart_permission_date": "2021-12-01", "grid_return_date": "2021-12-03", "winter": "2021/22", "cause": "Major planned condenser and reactor-recirculation modernisation, with an extended completion schedule.", "evidence": [ { "source_id": "kkl-2021-full", "locator": "Printed p 4:24 May–3 December revision and 3 December grid return; printed p 7:193 days." }, { "source_id": "ensi-kkl-permit-2021-reader", "locator": "responses[\"12\"], second source: permission given 1 December, article published 6 December." } ], "date_limit": "A large planned refurbishment with schedule extension; it should not be described as a wholly unexpected six-month outage." }, { "id": "goesgen-2025-2026", "plant": "Gösgen", "start_date": "2025-05-24", "restart_permission_date": "2026-03-23", "grid_return_date": "2026-03-23", "grid_return_local_time": "13:00 Europe/Zurich", "winter": "2025/26", "cause": "Annual revision followed by extended feedwater-system safety work, including replacement of undamped check valves by damped valves.", "evidence": [ { "source_id": "ensi-goesgen-restart-2026", "locator": "Article opening, archived lines 384–393:24 May 2025 shutdown and 23 March 2026 permission." }, { "source_id": "kkg-grid-return-2026", "locator": "Opening paragraph: delivering electricity since 23 March 2026 at 13:00; full-power ramp expected in following days." } ], "date_limit": "Most of the October–March winter, not all of it. The grid-return date does not establish full output from that hour." } ], "observation": { "kind": "observation_from_archived_records", "winters_with_at_least_one_selected_extended_outage": [ "2016/17", "2017/18", "2018/19", "2021/22", "2025/26" ], "count": 5, "window_winter_count": 10, "statement": "At least five of the ten winters from 2016/17 to 2025/26 overlapped extended outages at Leibstadt or Gösgen.", "limitations": [ "This lower-bound count is not an estimated probability for a future reactor or winter.", "Events include planned refurbishment and unplanned extensions; lengths and causes differ.", "No hourly lost-generation reconstruction or exhaustive all-unit outage search was done." ] }, "corrections": [ { "target": "Review 118 F 5: Gösgen all of 2025/26", "finding": "Incorrect for the October–March definition. The operator reports grid return 23 March 2026 at 13:00. Use most of winter or until 23 March." }, { "target": "Calibration-edition 2018 power_return null", "finding": "The archived original 2018 report, printed p 7, establishes grid connection 2 November 2018." }, { "target": "Calibration source coverage for 2016–18 and 2021", "finding": "Original KKL annual PDFs for 2016,2017,2018 and 2021 were already retained in the enrichment archive. Reuse these beside ENSI reader records." } ], "proposed_website": { "heading": "Plan for long shutdowns as well as annual maintenance", "paragraph": "Long shutdowns are part of the operating record. Extended outages at Leibstadt or Gösgen overlapped at least five of the ten winters from 2016/17 to 2025/26. Some began as planned upgrades and then lasted longer than scheduled. Switzerland needs replacement energy for these periods as well as standby power for sudden trips.", "table": [ { "plant": "Leibstadt", "winter": "2016/17", "outage_period": "August 2016–February 2017", "explanation": "Fuel inspections and an interrupted restart delayed resumed power operation until 20 February.", "source_ids": [ "kkl-2016-full", "kkl-2017-full", "ensi-restart-2017-reader", "ensi-annual-2017-reader" ] }, { "plant": "Leibstadt", "winter": "2017/18", "outage_period": "September–December 2017", "explanation": "Major maintenance was followed by fuel-replacement and approval delays. Grid return:18 December.", "source_ids": [ "kkl-2017-full", "ensi-restart-december-2017-reader", "ensi-annual-2017-reader" ] }, { "plant": "Leibstadt", "winter": "2018/19", "outage_period": "September–November 2018", "explanation": "A planned four-week shutdown extended to about seven weeks. Grid return:2 November.", "source_ids": [ "kkl-2018-full", "ensi-restart-2018-reader" ] }, { "plant": "Leibstadt", "winter": "2021/22", "outage_period": "May–December 2021", "explanation": "Major condenser and circulation-system upgrades took longer than scheduled. Grid return:3 December.", "source_ids": [ "kkl-2021-full", "ensi-kkl-permit-2021-reader" ] }, { "plant": "Gösgen", "winter": "2025/26", "outage_period": "May 2025–March 2026", "explanation": "Feedwater-system work prolonged the shutdown. Grid return:23 March, before winter ended.", "source_ids": [ "ensi-goesgen-restart-2026", "kkg-grid-return-2026" ] } ], "footnote": "The count describes recorded events. It does not assign a probability to the model’s 90-day outage. Dates refer to grid return where established; reaching full output can take longer." } }, "solar": { "observations": [ { "year": 2020, "yield_kwh_kwp": 985, "source": "bfe-pv-2021", "locator": "Section 2.3 and 5.4.1, previous year", "status": "published sample-derived national estimate", "five_year_fit_kwh_kwp": 940.3447262421876, "proxy_820_kwh_kwp": 923.1160091379073, "proxy_1100_kwh_kwp": 1238.326353721583 }, { "year": 2021, "yield_kwh_kwp": 895, "source": "bfe-pv-2021", "locator": "Section 2.3 and 5.4.1", "status": "published sample-derived national estimate", "five_year_fit_kwh_kwp": 896.0525798694421, "proxy_820_kwh_kwp": 879.635370330953, "proxy_1100_kwh_kwp": 1179.9986675171322 }, { "year": 2022, "yield_kwh_kwp": 970, "source": "bfe-pv-2022", "locator": "Section 5.4.1, printed page 21", "status": "published sample-derived national estimate", "five_year_fit_kwh_kwp": 977.7843099195127, "proxy_820_kwh_kwp": 959.8696358702125, "proxy_1100_kwh_kwp": 1287.6299993380896 }, { "year": 2023, "yield_kwh_kwp": 885, "source": "bfe-pv-2023", "locator": "Section 2.3 and 5.4.1", "status": "published sample-derived national estimate", "five_year_fit_kwh_kwp": 907.7519740057736, "proxy_820_kwh_kwp": 891.1204116387512, "proxy_1100_kwh_kwp": 1195.4054302471052 }, { "year": 2024, "yield_kwh_kwp": 820, "source": "bfe-pv-2024", "locator": "Section 2.3 and 5.4.1", "status": "published sample-derived national estimate", "five_year_fit_kwh_kwp": 835.3041956651834, "proxy_820_kwh_kwp": 820.0, "proxy_1100_kwh_kwp": 1099.9999999999998 }, { "year": 2025, "yield_kwh_kwp": 900, "source": "bfe-pv-2025-existing", "locator": "Section 5.4.1, printed page 27", "status": "published sample-derived national estimate" } ], "calibration_years": [ 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "five_year_mean_observed_kwh_kwp": 911.0, "five_year_fit_radiation_multiplier": 0.6831104215489002, "five_year_fit_2024_kwh_kwp": 835.3041956651834, "fit_rmse_kwh_kwp": 23.696698528729137, "monthly_shape": [ { "year": 2021, "winter_months": [ 1, 2, 3, 10, 11, 12 ], "published_winter_share": 0.2550607287449393, "old_proxy_winter_share": 0.2678040757350276, "largest_month_share_error_percentage_points": 1.2823327840275571 }, { "year": 2022, "winter_months": [ 1, 2, 3, 10, 11, 12 ], "published_winter_share": 0.2692402262109663, "old_proxy_winter_share": 0.26639764793002735, "largest_month_share_error_percentage_points": 0.8641832691470834 }, { "year": 2023, "winter_months": [ 1, 2, 3, 10, 11, 12 ], "published_winter_share": 0.25356125356125353, "old_proxy_winter_share": 0.25280369854309187, "largest_month_share_error_percentage_points": 0.9499419485841515 }, { "year": 2024, "winter_months": [ 1, 2, 3, 10, 11, 12 ], "published_winter_share": 0.24911927528938096, "old_proxy_winter_share": 0.2536678693131328, "largest_month_share_error_percentage_points": 0.8473404329467236 } ], "boundaries": [ "Output per installed nominal module kW; solar electrical production and module-nameplate capacity, not inverter kVA. The 2025 sample eligibility threshold is 30 kVA.", "The 2025 edition specifies production metering and 12 monthly readings. The 2021–2024 editions describe a representative sample and irradiance/PV-index cross-check without that same detailed eligibility text.", "The production calculation separately accounts for new installations: 30% in the older editions, revised to 50% from reference year 2020 in the 2024/2025 editions. Do not divide production by year-end installed capacity to recover a full-year yield.", "Equal-weight least squares across 2020–2024 annual yields is an in-sample fit to an evolving fleet, not independent validation of a fixed fleet or future site mix.", "Weather ends in 2024. The 2025 observation is not fitted or independently predicted.", "Monthly shares compare fixed-capacity weather shapes with a growing installed fleet and published production estimates. They flag profile uncertainty, not pure model error.", "Hourly horizontal radiation weighted by dwelling floor area remains a proxy. Tilt, orientation, snow, changing site mix and hourly national production are not calibrated." ] }, "solar_history": { "reviewed_at": "2026-09-26", "observations": [ { "year": 2015, "published_yield_kwh_kwp": 965, "source_id": "bfe-pv-history-2015", "locator": "Section 3.5.2 and footnote 2, printed/PDF page 10", "status": "published mean specific yield of grid-connected PV systems", "five_year_fit_kwh_kwp": 918.3472678701522, "error_kwh_kwp": -46.65273212984778, "relative_error_percent": -4.8344800134557335, "calendar_hours": 8760 }, { "year": 2016, "published_yield_kwh_kwp": 905, "source_id": "bfe-pv-history-2016", "locator": "Section 3.5.2 and footnote 2, printed/PDF page 10", "status": "published mean specific yield of grid-connected PV systems", "five_year_fit_kwh_kwp": 856.1227432759172, "error_kwh_kwp": -48.87725672408283, "relative_error_percent": -5.400801847964953, "calendar_hours": 8784 }, { "year": 2017, "published_yield_kwh_kwp": 970, "source_id": "bfe-pv-history-2017", "locator": "Section 3.5.2 and footnote 2, printed/PDF page 12", "status": "published mean specific yield of grid-connected PV systems", "five_year_fit_kwh_kwp": 922.7073220638745, "error_kwh_kwp": -47.29267793612553, "relative_error_percent": -4.875533807847998, "calendar_hours": 8760 }, { "year": 2018, "published_yield_kwh_kwp": 980, "source_id": "bfe-pv-history-2018", "locator": "Section 3.5.2 and footnote 2, printed/PDF page 12", "status": "published mean specific yield of grid-connected PV systems", "five_year_fit_kwh_kwp": 923.1623465449188, "error_kwh_kwp": -56.83765345508118, "relative_error_percent": -5.799760556640932, "calendar_hours": 8760 }, { "year": 2019, "published_yield_kwh_kwp": 960, "source_id": "bfe-pv-history-2019", "locator": "Section 3.5.2 and footnote 2, printed/PDF page 12", "status": "published mean specific yield of grid-connected PV systems", "five_year_fit_kwh_kwp": 918.6224769759848, "error_kwh_kwp": -41.377523024015204, "relative_error_percent": -4.310158648334916, "calendar_hours": 8760 } ], "calculation": { "profile": { "path": "outputs/programme-calibration-2026-09-26/solar-multiyear.csv.gz", "sha256": "51e1d40a203f58205d9485a1838e01f8c1bb1393c7d188e3505463966d511746", "bytes": 1050907 }, "calibration": { "path": "data/programme-calibration-2026-09-26/solar-review.json", "sha256": "6d7c3b0ceecc09479ad8876205b5cb600d52eb75a3432570d3512e3e79bdb8b7", "bytes": 4787 }, "calibration_years": [ 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "evaluation_years": [ 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 ], "formula": "Sum the fixed calibrated hourly per-unit output over each Europe/Zurich calendar year; error = model yield minus published yield; relative error = 100 * error / published yield.", "weighting": "Equal weight per calendar year", "recalibrated": false, "evaluation_rmse_kwh_kwp": 48.465821541172986, "evaluation_bias_kwh_kwp": -48.207568653830506, "evaluation_mae_kwh_kwp": 48.207568653830506, "calibration_rmse_kwh_kwp": 23.696698528729137, "maximum_absolute_relative_error_percent": 5.799760556640932 }, "finding": "The fixed 2020–2024 calibration understates all five earlier annual published yields, by 4.3–5.8%. The annual comparison indicates a systematic difference outside the fitted period.", "interpretation": [ "These earlier BFE reports publish grid-connected mean specific yields. Section 2.5 says the yield and installed stock are cross-checked against Swissgrid data (2015–2017) or Pronovo data (2018–2019). They do not specify the same sample-selection details as the later statistics.", "The publications calculate national production from specific yields and capacity cohorts, with a 30% contribution from current-year additions in section 3.5.4. Production divided by year-end installed capacity is therefore a different measure.", "The held-out annual comparison combines weather-proxy error with changes in installed site mix, equipment and statistical methods. It does not isolate irradiance error or validate hourly or winter production.", "The calibration and dispatch model are unchanged. A uniform solar uplift would require a separately labelled sensitivity; these annual errors do not establish an equally sized winter-yield correction.", "Years 2011–2014 and 2025 remain outside this check. No future improvement is inferred from the historical comparison." ], "sources": [ { "id": "bfe-pv-history-2015", "title": "Markterhebung Sonnenenergie 2015", "publisher": "Bundesamt für Energie / Swissolar", "url": "https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/de/publication/download/8347", "publication_date": "2016-07-05", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-26T00:50:50.255636+00:00", "http_status": 200, "resolved_url": "https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/de/publication/download/8347", "artifacts": [ { "path": "backups/programme-followup-2026-09-26/solar-history/bfe-pv-2015.pdf", "sha256": "42497e3a1822936150de5b8c1c64671ea9cc7450029014cb5a7e50c7ccb21542", "bytes": 1987857 }, { "path": "backups/programme-followup-2026-09-26/solar-history/bfe-pv-2015.txt", "sha256": "19254fba88690273480593108156758c7fdcd0ac9633be16116046c72c2ca971", "bytes": 168489 } ], "status": "original_pdf_archived", "cover_date": "Juni 2016", "publication_date_locator": "BFE publication database entry; cover date is recorded separately", "locator": "Section 3.5.2 and footnote 2, printed page 10; method section 2.5, printed page 5; production accounting section 3.5.4, printed page 11" }, { "id": "bfe-pv-history-2016", "title": "Markterhebung Sonnenenergie 2016", "publisher": "Bundesamt für Energie / Swissolar", "url": "https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/de/publication/download/8703", "publication_date": "2017-07-10", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-26T00:50:50.255970+00:00", "http_status": 200, "resolved_url": "https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/de/publication/download/8703", "artifacts": [ { "path": "backups/programme-followup-2026-09-26/solar-history/bfe-pv-2016.pdf", "sha256": "3bf2f9881eb6de123a675e862ec8e3fa6b6957264d61bbdc4e7c7638d71cfad9", "bytes": 1958269 }, { "path": "backups/programme-followup-2026-09-26/solar-history/bfe-pv-2016.txt", "sha256": "ab7bb74755db89a70a106aaa4f5f2cdced693e39ef3deb67035b9ff33ccff731", "bytes": 161505 } ], "status": "original_pdf_archived", "cover_date": "Juni 2017", "publication_date_locator": "BFE publication database entry; cover date is recorded separately", "locator": "Section 3.5.2 and footnote 2, printed page 10; method section 2.5, printed page 5; production accounting section 3.5.4, printed page 11" }, { "id": "bfe-pv-history-2017", "title": "Markterhebung Sonnenenergie 2017", "publisher": "Bundesamt für Energie / Swissolar", "url": "https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/de/publication/download/9431", "publication_date": "2018-07-11", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-26T00:50:50.256873+00:00", "http_status": 200, "resolved_url": "https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/de/publication/download/9431", "artifacts": [ { "path": "backups/programme-followup-2026-09-26/solar-history/bfe-pv-2017.pdf", "sha256": "94690b03283a0856c3cb52feff82ee18e69c964e770a921be201e730a947ac96", "bytes": 2036039 }, { "path": "backups/programme-followup-2026-09-26/solar-history/bfe-pv-2017.txt", "sha256": "6e32c383f2790e6257a21086c65fc230e32ccf8f1c00f1bec6c712a2beb7cd0f", "bytes": 187416 } ], "status": "original_pdf_archived", "cover_date": "Juli 2018", "publication_date_locator": "BFE publication database entry; cover date is recorded separately", "locator": "Section 3.5.2 and footnote 2, printed page 12; method section 2.5, printed page 5; production accounting section 3.5.4, printed page 13" }, { "id": "bfe-pv-history-2018", "title": "Markterhebung Sonnenenergie 2018", "publisher": "Bundesamt für Energie / Swissolar", "url": "https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/de/publication/download/9776", "publication_date": "2019-07-01", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-26T00:50:50.257091+00:00", "http_status": 200, "resolved_url": "https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/de/publication/download/9776", "artifacts": [ { "path": "backups/programme-followup-2026-09-26/solar-history/bfe-pv-2018.pdf", "sha256": "8b63867ca111efee6c6940cf8d60778234adf9f5acbcc1f6a18f6ce53ea65825", "bytes": 2054599 }, { "path": "backups/programme-followup-2026-09-26/solar-history/bfe-pv-2018.txt", "sha256": "db8b5b4986efdc98f42c45ef3b067684808ef45d2e9a76c545dcd376841f7d6e", "bytes": 168749 } ], "status": "original_pdf_archived", "cover_date": "Juli 2019", "publication_date_locator": "BFE publication database entry; cover date is recorded separately", "locator": "Section 3.5.2 and footnote 2, printed page 12; method section 2.5, printed page 5; production accounting section 3.5.4, printed page 13" }, { "id": "bfe-pv-history-2019", "title": "Markterhebung Sonnenenergie 2019", "publisher": "Bundesamt für Energie / Swissolar", "url": "https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/de/publication/download/10140", "publication_date": "2020-07-01", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-26T00:50:50.257234+00:00", "http_status": 200, "resolved_url": "https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/de/publication/download/10140", "artifacts": [ { "path": "backups/programme-followup-2026-09-26/solar-history/bfe-pv-2019.pdf", "sha256": "7edb2490ab17193b080f08be6d489d13a8de1eb9c78d3a792eb1ff0d7b92108c", "bytes": 2011851 }, { "path": "backups/programme-followup-2026-09-26/solar-history/bfe-pv-2019.txt", "sha256": "28e6f2f97fd0d26686010db7089a8035ece2e29dc1f861af1bbb4e2c24e98617", "bytes": 162633 } ], "status": "original_pdf_archived", "cover_date": "Juli 2020", "publication_date_locator": "BFE publication database entry; cover date is recorded separately", "locator": "Section 3.5.2 and footnote 2, printed page 12; method section 2.5, printed page 6; production accounting section 3.5.4, printed page 13" } ], "metadata_sources": [ { "id": "bfe-solar-publication-index-1", "url": "https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/de/suche?keywords=395", "resolved_url": "https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/de/suche?keywords=395", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-26T00:51:38.291463+00:00", "http_status": 200, "artifacts": [ { "path": "backups/programme-followup-2026-09-26/solar-history/bfe-publication-index-1.html", "sha256": "a3fc9b440e239dee87c80b5a4814501f8c9f09a9c64cb64304bdad06b01de3a2", "bytes": 30529 } ] }, { "id": "bfe-solar-publication-index-2", "url": "https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/de/suche?page=2&q=statistik+sonnenenergie&x=1", "resolved_url": "https://pubdb.bfe.admin.ch/de/suche?page=2&q=statistik+sonnenenergie&x=1", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-26T00:51:38.571349+00:00", "http_status": 200, "artifacts": [ { "path": "backups/programme-followup-2026-09-26/solar-history/bfe-publication-index-2.html", "sha256": "b0b047242331dbebfdbf3888271c9b9e545b0fffd0e7f9b81e4eebdf280134de", "bytes": 32151 } ] } ], "reproduction": "Run .venv/bin/python scripts/build_solar_history_review.py --check for a read-only comparison." }, "solar_fit_claim": "calibrated-solar-fit-2024", "nuclear": [ { "plant": "goesgen", "basis": "all_years", "years": [ 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 ], "excluded_years": [], "generation_gwh": 75515.0, "capacity_factor": 0.8528073584801678, "boundary": "Electrical generation divided by year-specific nominal capacity times calendar hours. Selected-year averages are conditional scenarios, not predicted availability." }, { "plant": "goesgen", "basis": "conditional", "years": [ 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "excluded_years": [ 2025 ], "generation_gwh": 72086.0, "capacity_factor": 0.9044540402945404, "boundary": "Electrical generation divided by year-specific nominal capacity times calendar hours. Selected-year averages are conditional scenarios, not predicted availability." }, { "plant": "goesgen", "basis": "conditional_without_2018", "years": [ 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "excluded_years": [ 2025 ], "generation_gwh": 72086.0, "capacity_factor": 0.9044540402945404, "boundary": "Electrical generation divided by year-specific nominal capacity times calendar hours. Selected-year averages are conditional scenarios, not predicted availability." }, { "plant": "leibstadt", "basis": "all_years", "years": [ 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 ], "excluded_years": [], "generation_gwh": 80936.0, "capacity_factor": 0.7542837681592494, "boundary": "Electrical generation divided by year-specific nominal capacity times calendar hours. Selected-year averages are conditional scenarios, not predicted availability." }, { "plant": "leibstadt", "basis": "conditional", "years": [ 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 ], "excluded_years": [ 2016, 2017, 2021 ], "generation_gwh": 64327.0, "capacity_factor": 0.8552881262761446, "boundary": "Electrical generation divided by year-specific nominal capacity times calendar hours. Selected-year averages are conditional scenarios, not predicted availability." }, { "plant": "leibstadt", "basis": "conditional_without_2018", "years": [ 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 ], "excluded_years": [ 2016, 2017, 2021, 2018 ], "generation_gwh": 56514.0, "capacity_factor": 0.875864054442497, "boundary": "Electrical generation divided by year-specific nominal capacity times calendar hours. Selected-year averages are conditional scenarios, not predicted availability." } ], "maintenance_bound": { "status": "passed", "case_id": "2017-2050-3new-lto-observed-import2", "cases": [ { "id": "restore_winter_maintenance_only", "status": "passed", "case_id": "2017-2050-3new-lto-observed-import2", "restored_hours": 384, "restored_hours_by_month": [ { "year": 2016, "month": 10, "hours": 384 } ], "boundary": "Restore only the October maintenance hours. The September maintenance hours and every other input remain unchanged.", "audit": { "primal_feasibility_error": 7.402412016688231e-13, "raw_dual_sign_error": 0.0, "raw_stationarity_error": 0.0, "raw_primal_dual_gap_gwh": 4.179128154646605e-10, "original_primal_annual_unserved_gwh": 1341.6465672690242, "original_raw_dual_gwh": 1341.6465672686063, "certified_original_lower_bound_gwh": 1341.6465672686063, "certified_original_gap_gwh": 4.179128154646605e-10, "lagrangian_finite_bound_term_gwh": -7988.2448, "maximum_added_generation_gwh": 413.952, "weighted_bus_marginal_change_gwh": 278.33959999999996, "restored_hour_bus_marginal_min": 0.0, "restored_hour_bus_marginal_max": 1.0, "every_restored_hour_marginal_at_most_one": true, "weighted_change_at_most_added_energy": true, "remaining_annual_unserved_lower_bound_gwh": 1063.3069672686063, "normalization_max_change": 0.0 }, "arrays": { "path": "outputs/programme-followup-2026-09-26/maintenance-dual-certificate.npz", "sha256": "61eb38ae3db8b1e6f6b087cca5728efa22b2e577572ff26b9457d275d31a83c3" } }, { "id": "remove_all_modelled_maintenance", "status": "passed", "case_id": "2017-2050-3new-lto-observed-import2", "restored_hours": 696, "restored_hours_by_month": [ { "year": 2016, "month": 10, "hours": 384 }, { "year": 2017, "month": 9, "hours": 312 } ], "boundary": "Remove every third-unit maintenance hour in this hydrological year. Keep 98% outside-maintenance availability and every other input. This optimistic counterfactual dominates any rescheduling of that same unit maintenance at unchanged capacity and availability.", "audit": { "primal_feasibility_error": 7.402412016688231e-13, "raw_dual_sign_error": 0.0, "raw_stationarity_error": 0.0, "raw_primal_dual_gap_gwh": 4.179128154646605e-10, "original_primal_annual_unserved_gwh": 1341.6465672690242, "original_raw_dual_gwh": 1341.6465672686063, "certified_original_lower_bound_gwh": 1341.6465672686063, "certified_original_gap_gwh": 4.179128154646605e-10, "lagrangian_finite_bound_term_gwh": -7988.2448, "maximum_added_generation_gwh": 750.288, "weighted_bus_marginal_change_gwh": 278.33959999999996, "restored_hour_bus_marginal_min": 0.0, "restored_hour_bus_marginal_max": 1.0, "every_restored_hour_marginal_at_most_one": true, "weighted_change_at_most_added_energy": true, "remaining_annual_unserved_lower_bound_gwh": 1063.3069672686063, "normalization_max_change": 0.0 }, "arrays": { "path": "outputs/programme-followup-2026-09-26/maintenance-all-hours-dual-certificate.npz", "sha256": "92b7973b43755f3794a1153322b8eacf82b11ebb89ccae026610dd788cdea651" } } ], "original_certificate": { "path": "data/programme-followup-2026-09-26/maintenance-dual-certificate.json", "sha256": "d2ace8a135178f67fa817c2850dcf576f021068a45fb3d4f9757438f8e2ed8e1" }, "calculation_code": { "path": "programme_followup/maintenance_comparisons.py", "sha256": "3bd420caf806f3307f19fb08d4cab7c69b0ffc0c86d9b20b16e370764855886f" }, "calendar": "Maintenance is 30 days in each calendar year, starting on day 261. The October 2016–September 2017 hydrological year includes 16 October 2016 days and 13 September 2017 days: 696 hours. The leap/non-leap boundary prevents treating this particular model year as a 720-hour stop.", "proof": "Both rows evaluate the same feasible original-LP dual/Lagrangian certificate against their changed bus right-hand side. No modified dispatch problem is solved. All original constraints, including fixed combined initial/final stock, are retained. Removing every maintenance hour produces at least as much generation in every hour as any rescheduling at unchanged capacity and outside-maintenance availability; surplus can be curtailed.", "limitations": "The certified quantities are lower bounds on minimum annual unmet electricity. They are not optimized restored-dispatch totals, winter-allocation estimates, peak requirements or deliverable maintenance schedules. The full-maintenance-removal comparison applies only to this unit and unchanged fleet/resources.", "units": "Energy in GWh; TWh = GWh / 1000." }, "manifests": { "run-manifest.json": { "cases": [ { "weather_year": 2017, "target_year": 2035, "new_units": 0, "existing": true, "import_gw": 2, "hydro": "free", "outage": false, "coldheat": false }, { "weather_year": 2017, "target_year": 2035, "new_units": 0, "existing": true, "import_gw": 2, "hydro": "observed", "outage": false, "coldheat": false }, { "weather_year": 2017, "target_year": 2035, "new_units": 0, "existing": true, "import_gw": 2, "hydro": "observed-floor", "outage": false, "coldheat": false }, { "weather_year": 2017, "target_year": 2035, "new_units": 0, "existing": true, "import_gw": 2, "hydro": "observed-power", "outage": false, "coldheat": false }, { "weather_year": 2017, "target_year": 2050, "new_units": 2, "existing": true, "import_gw": 2, "hydro": "free", "outage": false, "coldheat": false }, { "weather_year": 2017, 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