{
  "as_of": "2026-09-22",
  "classification": "Analyst scenarios informed by catalogued evidence; not quotes or a full-system optimum",
  "money_basis": "Constant 2025 CHF for our comparative calculations. Observed roof prices are 2025 ex-VAT; Axpo CHF2024 inputs use the BFS annual CPI ratio 1.002. EBP mixed-vintage O&M/cost inputs and undated project budgets are expressly carried at their printed numbers as 2025-price scenario assumptions, not claimed inflation-normalised observations.",
  "cpi_2024_to_2025": 1.002,
  "real_discount_rates": [0.03, 0.05, 0.07],
  "comparison_horizon_years_from_first_cod": 60,
  "summer_effective_value_chf_per_potential_mwh": [0, 20, 50],
  "summer_value_boundary": "Net value after unsold energy, curtailment, export limits, losses and transaction costs; not a forecast or an assumption that all summer output sells at a given spot price. Applied symmetrically to each generator. Winter output is all counted usable for this energy-only screen.",
  "existing_pv_end_2025_gwp": 9.4986,
  "common_portfolio_pv_gwp": 53,
  "total_pv_targets_gwp": [70, 120, 140],
  "national_unit_capex_sensitivities_chf_kwp": [800, 1102, 1428, 1911, 2497],
  "national_cost_boundary": "Mechanical all-at-one-unit-price envelopes, not a plausible site mix. Subtract existing capacity for net additions; replacement/cohort examples separate. External design, roof works, off-site networks, storage and financing excluded from overnight table.",
  "historical_pv_stock_gwp": {"2010":0.125,"2011":0.223,"2012":0.437,"2013":0.756,"2014":1.061,"2015":1.394,"2016":1.664,"2017":1.906,"2018":2.173,"2019":2.498,"2020":2.973,"2021":3.655,"2022":4.737,"2023":6.375,"2024":8.1701,"2025":9.4986},
  "historical_cohort_boundary": "Approximate cohorts from rounded net capacity increments in BFE12679 p6, not gross commissioning/retirement records. Pre-2010 stock lumped into 2010. Used only for transparent replacement/age sensitivity.",
  "pv_lifetime_sensitivities_years": [25,30],
  "pv_degradation_sensitivities": [0,0.0015,0.005],
  "cohort_boundary": "Uniform annual gross commissioning 2026–2050. Retire at age >= life. No cost learning. Effective target is first-year-equivalent capacity at end-2050 under one common PV yield, not a geographical solar design. Gross builds include replacing any lost cohorts. No inherited capital is charged again.",
  "pv_default_life_years": 30,
  "pv_default_degradation": 0.005,
  "pv_construction_carry_years": 0.5,
  "pv_end_of_life_fraction": 0.05,
  "pv_end_of_life_boundary": "Unverified 5% removal/site-restoration allowance at each retirement, not the recycling charge already paid with compliant modules. Sensitivity, no Swiss national demolition quote. No salvage credit.",
  "nuclear": {
    "source_id": "axpo-nuclear-existing",
    "overnight_chf2024_kw": 8530,
    "overnight_sensitivity_chf2024_kw": [7100,8530,10830,15000],
    "availability": 0.85,
    "winter_fraction": 0.55,
    "life_years": 60,
    "construction_spend_fractions": [0.03,0.06,0.10,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.10,0.06,0.03],
    "years_before_cod": [10,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1],
    "opex_chf2024_mwh": 16,
    "fuel_chf2024_mwh": 7.3,
    "waste_and_decommission_chf2024_mwh": 12.7,
    "refurbishment_chf2024_kw_at_year30": 1000,
    "additional_insurance_budget_chf2025_kw_year": 10,
    "insurance_boundary": "Conservative additional allowance because exact cover/premium and overlap with published O&M remain unresolved; do not claim an observed cost. Test zero if proven included in O&M.",
    "boundary": "Reconstruction using reference assumptions, not Axpo's exact model. Off-site grid and site-specific extra development unpriced. Included 15% contingency not added again. Waste/decommission allowance not duplicated with terminal decommission capex. Overnight sensitivities change only cost, not lifetime/output simultaneously. Largest-unit outages still require separate system coverage."
  },
  "wind": {
    "source_id": "grenchen-owner",
    "budget_chf": 34000000,
    "capacity_kw": 16000,
    "annual_generation_mwh": 30000,
    "winter_fraction": 0.6666666666666666,
    "life_years": 30,
    "construction_carry_years": 1,
    "fixed_om_chf_kw_year": 70,
    "fixed_om_sensitivity_chf_kw_year": [40,70,100],
    "end_of_life_fraction": 0.05,
    "boundary": "Current owner project budget/output expectation, not operating results or a national wind supply curve. O&M/removal are analyst allowances. Owner page now targets 2029 and ~30GWh; do not mix with older 2025 factsheet's 2027/32GWh."
  },
  "battery": {
    "installed_chf_per_usable_ac_kwh": [250,375,500],
    "energy_gwh": [40,80,160],
    "duration_hours": 4,
    "life_years": 15,
    "annual_om_and_augmentation_fraction": 0.04,
    "roundtrip_efficiency": 0.85,
    "cycles_per_year": [50,150,300],
    "charging_price_chf_mwh": [0,30,60],
    "boundary": "Cost envelope inherited from battery research and restated as a 2025-price assumption, not an FX-converted quote. MW = MWh/4: largest cases entail enormous power. Constant AC-usable capacity maintained through O&M/augmentation; no second augmentation charge. Full replacement every 15 years, zero salvage. Grid and construction finance extra. Duration and annual cycles are service assumptions, not demonstrated charging opportunities."
  },
  "hydro_shift": {
    "source_id": "hydro-owner-existing",
    "grimselsee_capex_chf2025": 307000000,
    "seasonal_shift_gwh": 240,
    "life_years": 60,
    "wear_om_chf_mwh": 10,
    "summer_opportunity_cost_chf_mwh": [0,30,70],
    "boundary": "One additional seasonal shift per year assumed; not extra natural generation. Price foregone summer sales plus capital/wear. No extrapolation of this reservoir's CHF/kWh to unbuilt national potential; water, concessions and completion date conditional."
  },
  "network_sensitivity": {
    "incremental_investment_chf_bn": [5,10,20,40],
    "life_years": 40,
    "boundary": "Unpriced nodal difference represented as a sensitivity, not derived from BFE study totals. Existing replacements and demand-driven reinforcement common to portfolios must not all be assigned to PV."
  }
}