{
  "as_of": "2026-09-22",
  "status": "Evidence and component pricing ready; matched chronological whole-system costing remains unsolved",
  "common_service": "Same independent2050 hourly demand and grid-loss boundary, same weather years, same import and export constraints, no unserved electricity in each deterministic comparison case",
  "candidate_portfolios": [
    {"id":"nuclear-hydro-pv","purpose":"Preferred direction to evaluate","new_nuclear_gw":2.2,"pv_gwp":53,"status":"Existing programme starting point, not adequate in every stress test"},
    {"id":"pv-overbuild-hydro","purpose":"Honest comparator","new_nuclear_gw":0,"pv_gwp_candidates":[70,120,140],"status":"70GW belongs to the lower-demand official-energy screen; it is not presumed enough for our own greater-electrification demand"},
    {"id":"winter-diversified","purpose":"Check alternatives to the most expensive marginal PV sites","wind_and_winter_pv":"Siting-bounded candidates, not unlimited replications of one good project","new_nuclear":"Allowed in preferred hybrid; excluded only in the explicitly labelled comparator"}
  ],
  "fair_boundaries": [
    "Hold existing nuclear lifetime assumptions identical when comparing availability of NEW nuclear. Separately vary existing LTO in every portfolio.",
    "Same hydro inflows, cascade storage and turbines; no free reservoir refills, no counting pumped energy as natural generation, no free owner flexibility.",
    "Determine MW/MWh of storage and backup from chronology, not a battery size selected to create a desired cost result.",
    "Apply plant-specific planned/forced outages, PV degradation, actual AC conversion, battery capacity maintenance and replacement symmetrically.",
    "Connect generation to geographical grid zones; cost only the portfolio-dependent difference after common renewal and electrification costs.",
    "Price curtailment as unused investment/foregone receipts, not an extra fictitious payment per MWh unless a contract actually requires it.",
    "Count subsidies, VAT and taxes separately from resource cost. Public grants change who pays, not the construction resource cost.",
    "Use identical year-by-year horizon and terminal asset valuation. Compare construction delays and portfolio transition costs through2050, not only mature end-state plants.",
    "If fossil backup is used, include readiness, fuel supply/storage, activation cost, emissions and applicable market/legal permission; an emergency reserve contract does not automatically permit routine winter generation.",
    "Hold emissions and trade objectives equal. Annual net exports, dependable hours and equipment/fuel sovereignty remain different outputs."
  ],
  "resolved_for_component_screen": ["Current Swiss roof price bands and sample sizes","Reference costs and output of alternative PV site classes","Public potential categories and material numerical inconsistencies","New alpine measured partial-winter result","Current owner wind budget, output and schedule revision","Distribution/transmission network cost scopes","Lifecycle, finance, summer-value, storage and paid hydro sensitivity machinery"],
  "remaining_model_work": ["Build geographical PV portfolios with orientation, snow and finite site categories","Aggregate publicly available hourly PV profiles or reproduce validated equivalent profiles","Rerun matched chronological dispatch and choose storage/backup sizes","Allocate grid investments by location and power/export limits","Jointly test cold demand, dry hydro, plant outages, constrained imports and construction slippage"],
  "accepted_commercial_unknowns": ["Swiss nuclear EPC and financing offers","National PV site-access and connection offers","Hydro owner dispatch and opportunity-cost contracts","Firm battery warranties and long-term tolling prices","Market capture/export value at national overbuild scale"],
  "whole_system_cost_total_chf": null,
  "null_reason": "Storage/backup volume, grid increment and buildable site mix are endogenous unresolved inputs; null is not zero."
}