{
  "reviewedAt": "2026-09-18",
  "profiles": [
    {
      "id": "STEM",
      "name": "Swiss TIMES Energy System Model",
      "scope": "Electricity, heating, transport and other energy uses. It follows the transition over time.",
      "institution": "Paul Scherrer Institute",
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "locator": "Section 2.1, printed pages 1–2; Table 2, page 3",
      "evidence_status": "paraphrase_of_model_documentation"
    },
    {
      "id": "Nexus-e",
      "name": "Nexus-e",
      "scope": "Electricity supply, networks and trade with neighbouring countries for a chosen future year.",
      "institution": "ETH Zurich, Energy Science Center",
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "locator": "Section 2.1, printed pages 1–2; Table 2, page 3",
      "evidence_status": "paraphrase_of_model_documentation"
    },
    {
      "id": "SES",
      "name": "Swiss EnergyScope",
      "scope": "Electricity, heating and transport together, for a chosen future year.",
      "institution": "ETH Zurich, Department of Mechanical and Process Engineering",
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "locator": "Section 2.1, printed pages 1–2; Table 2, page 3",
      "evidence_status": "paraphrase_of_model_documentation"
    },
    {
      "id": "SES-ETH",
      "name": "Swiss EnergyScope — ETH variant",
      "scope": "A separately developed version of EnergyScope, also covering electricity, heating and transport for a chosen future year.",
      "institution": "ETH Zurich, Energy Science Center",
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "locator": "Section 2.1, printed pages 1–2; Table 2, page 3",
      "evidence_status": "paraphrase_of_model_documentation"
    }
  ],
  "findings": [
    {
      "id": "target-change",
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "locator": "Section 2.3.2, printed page 11",
      "statement": "The shared-target case requires 45 TWh/year from non-hydro renewables and nuclear in 2050. The market-driven case removes the domestic-generation constraint. New nuclear remains allowed in the three construction-cost variants."
    },
    {
      "id": "retained-rules",
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "locator": "Sections 2.3.1–2.3.2, printed pages 10–11; electricity trade treatment, pages 7–8",
      "statement": "Net-zero constraints and model-specific trade assumptions remain. Removing the domestic-generation constraint does not impose energy sovereignty or make financing risk disappear."
    },
    {
      "id": "financing-columns",
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "locator": "Section 2.2.2, page 8; section 2.3.4, page 13",
      "statement": "The 8% real nuclear WACC is the study proxy for private investment conditions. The 5% case assumes reduced investment risk, including through government support. These are exogenous scenario inputs, not executable Swiss financing offers."
    },
    {
      "id": "meaning-of-selected",
      "source_id": "eth-psi-report-2026",
      "locator": "Section 2.3, printed page 15",
      "statement": "The models choose investments from a central-planner perspective. Selected nuclear means inclusion in the calculated system-cost optimum under the assumptions; it does not establish an individual owner investment decision."
    }
  ],
  "construction_scale_examples": [
    {
      "claim_id": "eth-psi-example-low-capital",
      "input_claim_id": "eth-psi-occ-low",
      "assumed_capacity_gw": 1,
      "chf2024_per_kw": 5000,
      "billion_chf2024": 5.0,
      "formula": "5000 CHF2024/kW × 1 GW × 1,000,000 kW/GW / 1,000,000,000 = 5 billion CHF2024"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "eth-psi-example-medium-capital",
      "input_claim_id": "eth-psi-occ-medium",
      "assumed_capacity_gw": 1,
      "chf2024_per_kw": 8000,
      "billion_chf2024": 8.0,
      "formula": "8000 CHF2024/kW × 1 GW × 1,000,000 kW/GW / 1,000,000,000 = 8 billion CHF2024"
    },
    {
      "claim_id": "eth-psi-example-high-capital",
      "input_claim_id": "eth-psi-occ-high",
      "assumed_capacity_gw": 1,
      "chf2024_per_kw": 12000,
      "billion_chf2024": 12.0,
      "formula": "12000 CHF2024/kW × 1 GW × 1,000,000 kW/GW / 1,000,000,000 = 12 billion CHF2024"
    }
  ],
  "market_results": [
    {
      "model": "STEM",
      "wacc_percent": 8,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 5000,
      "nuclear_selected": true,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 21,
      "printed_page": 23,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "STEM",
      "wacc_percent": 8,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 8000,
      "nuclear_selected": true,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 21,
      "printed_page": 23,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "STEM",
      "wacc_percent": 8,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 12000,
      "nuclear_selected": true,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 21,
      "printed_page": 23,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "STEM",
      "wacc_percent": 5,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 5000,
      "nuclear_selected": true,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 25,
      "printed_page": 25,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "STEM",
      "wacc_percent": 5,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 8000,
      "nuclear_selected": true,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 25,
      "printed_page": 25,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "STEM",
      "wacc_percent": 5,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 12000,
      "nuclear_selected": true,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 25,
      "printed_page": 25,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "Nexus-e",
      "wacc_percent": 8,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 5000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 21,
      "printed_page": 23,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "Nexus-e",
      "wacc_percent": 8,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 8000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 21,
      "printed_page": 23,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "Nexus-e",
      "wacc_percent": 8,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 12000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 21,
      "printed_page": 23,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "Nexus-e",
      "wacc_percent": 5,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 5000,
      "nuclear_selected": true,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 25,
      "printed_page": 25,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "Nexus-e",
      "wacc_percent": 5,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 8000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 25,
      "printed_page": 25,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "Nexus-e",
      "wacc_percent": 5,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 12000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 25,
      "printed_page": 25,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "SES",
      "wacc_percent": 8,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 5000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 21,
      "printed_page": 23,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "SES",
      "wacc_percent": 8,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 8000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 21,
      "printed_page": 23,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "SES",
      "wacc_percent": 8,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 12000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 21,
      "printed_page": 23,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "SES",
      "wacc_percent": 5,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 5000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 25,
      "printed_page": 25,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "SES",
      "wacc_percent": 5,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 8000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 25,
      "printed_page": 25,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "SES",
      "wacc_percent": 5,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 12000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 25,
      "printed_page": 25,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "SES-ETH",
      "wacc_percent": 8,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 5000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 21,
      "printed_page": 23,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "SES-ETH",
      "wacc_percent": 8,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 8000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 21,
      "printed_page": 23,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "SES-ETH",
      "wacc_percent": 8,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 12000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 21,
      "printed_page": 23,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "SES-ETH",
      "wacc_percent": 5,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 5000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 25,
      "printed_page": 25,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "SES-ETH",
      "wacc_percent": 5,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 8000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 25,
      "printed_page": 25,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    },
    {
      "model": "SES-ETH",
      "wacc_percent": 5,
      "overnight_chf2024_kw": 12000,
      "nuclear_selected": false,
      "capacity_gw": null,
      "source_id": "eth-psi-models-2026",
      "figure": 25,
      "printed_page": 25,
      "evidence_status": "qualitative_reading_of_published_chart"
    }
  ],
  "limitation": "The 24 qualitative market results are copied unchanged from the earlier reviewed chart transcription. No precise capacities are digitised and no model is rerun. The scope descriptions do not isolate the cause of differences in results."
}