Test the strategy. Test the alternatives.

Generation targets for 2050

The corrected edition of BFE’s monitoring report lists these targets for average annual generation. They are minimum targets. They are not a forecast of available electricity in every hour.

The report covers more than generation totals. It includes winter imports, network development and supply security. A fair critique must address those parts too.

An annual surplus is not enough

Switzerland’s recorded winter and summer trade balances show why the time period matters. Imports can cover a seasonal deficit. They are not a measure of unmet demand.

In the screening model, the same case exports electricity over the year and leaves demand unmet in some hours.

The case assumes hypothetical new nuclear capacity, solar and hydro, with no imports and no battery storage. Pumped storage is still included. This is a simplified national model, not a simulation of every grid connection and reservoir.

This result does not prove that the government’s strategy fails. It shows why annual totals cannot, by themselves, prove that any portfolio succeeds.

Apply the same tests to every option

Our proposed standard: assess a revised strategy and a nuclear-inclusive alternative with the same demand, weather and security requirements.

• Test winter supply and hours with low production.
• State how much import capacity is assumed to be available.
• Test prolonged outages and delayed projects.
• Include grid work, storage losses and replacement costs.
• Show whether plant owners can earn enough to operate and invest.
• Keep forecast improvements separate from demonstrated performance.

Choosing a national electricity mix

Our position: retain a nuclear option and compare complete electricity portfolios before selecting a national plan. The demand scenarios and supply screening identify constraints; they do not establish a complete national energy strategy.