Check the basis of each claim
Original publications and inputs behind the figures. Each record separates the source from the analysis.
176 source records · 1537 evidence records · Reviewed 26 October 2026
Download the source catalogue (JSON)Check the publisher, date and exact page or table. Source records link to the original publication.
Source and limitsInspect the inputs and assumptions behind a result. Curated downloads provide values and calculation details.
Source and limitsEach numerical claim has a definition, period and limitations. A conditional result stays conditional in the short version.
Source and limitsKeep in viewA source link lets you inspect the basis of a claim; it does not make an estimate or model result certain.
In supply-case records, “routine” means planned maintenance with no additional prolonged outage. “Maximum one-hour shortfall” means the largest hourly power gap; it does not specify its duration.
Primary source
Reporting year is distinct from publication date.
Primary source
The generation series is used unchanged. Published utilization rates for Beznau and Gösgen include heat. Our capacity factors are calculated separately. The Gösgen 2025 discrepancy with operator electricity-only output remains unresolved.
Primary source
Historical account of the regulatory system. Current new-build licensing requires a separate review of the applicable law.
Primary source
Minimum policy targets. Their delivery depends on investment, project completion and operation.
Primary source
ENSI describes a ten-month shutdown. The retained evidence is a web-reader extraction of this publication.
Primary source
Operator corroboration that electricity delivery resumed at 13:00 on 23 March 2026. The announcement establishes that dated event.
Primary source
The operator separates electricity from process steam in electrical-equivalent units. Its financial net-output total includes both.
Primary source
Used for definitions of power and energy. Swiss consumption figures come from the separately indexed Swiss sources.
Primary source
Used for storage definitions and charging losses. Swiss prices and procurement capacity require project evidence.
Primary source
Explains the operating principle. Building performance and national winter demand require their own measurements and assumptions.
Primary source
Used to distinguish flowing water, reservoirs and pumped storage. Swiss fleet evidence comes from the separately indexed Swiss sources.
Primary source
Design for a proposed enlargement. The published budget is dated 2019; a current price requires updated project evidence.
Primary source
Operator report: Grimselsee enters the building-permit phase; Grimsel 4 construction officially started 7 July 2026. Separate projects.
Primary source
January 2025 proposal: about 60 GWh seasonal transfer, unchanged annual generation, a CHF 83 million estimate and unresolved concession, environmental and economic conditions. Project status here is limited to that release.
Primary source
CHF 300 million construction budget; final expenditure depends on delivery. The September operator report records a July start, superseding the original June target.
Primary source
Used for cost definitions and methods. Technology prices, tax treatment and future improvements need evidence appropriate to the Swiss comparison.
Primary source
Detailed methodological statements apply to this complete 2021 manuscript. Changes in the final 2022 journal article remain unverified. The author also tests wind-plus-solar and 95%-annual-energy variants.
Primary source
Methodological critique based on its own cost allocation and Japanese model assumptions. Used here for the distinction between single-source and mixed-system comparisons.
Primary source
VALCOE adjusts generation cost for modelled value. A Swiss grid, risk or consumer-bill assessment requires further inputs.
Primary source
Installer-scope prices excluding VAT, external engineering, roof reinforcement, grid strengthening and batteries. The middle-half ranges describe the surveyed price distribution. The introduction mentions 2024, while the scope and tables identify 2025; this edition follows the latter.
Primary source
Historical wholesale energy-value benchmarks for measured technology groups, excluding VAT. Plant costs, customer tariffs, contracts and future income require separate evidence.
Primary source
The archived cover says 1 April 2026; an earlier research index recorded 10 April. This edition uses the printed date. The hydro sample covers selected categories; extrapolation to the full reservoir and pumped-storage fleet would need additional data.
Primary source
BFE-commissioned Frontier Economics/Siempelkamp study. Conditional break-even prices use operator best-estimate investment costs, 7% nominal pretax finance and real 2025 CHF. Scheduled extension assumes sufficient prefunding and zero additional dismantling costs; early closure includes continuing costs. The study covers extensions. Licensing, new-build prices and national portfolio comparisons are separate decisions.
Primary source
Four systems, January–April 2026. Main heat-output channels and available compressor readings have different boundaries. One unit has substantially different results for minute and monthly data. This measures agreement between data sources; national seasonal performance needs a representative sample and whole-system meters.
Primary source
Demographic scenario inputs based on the BFS reference scenario. The same population is used in both sheets. Annual-average population is distinct from a year-end count. These inputs alone leave electricity use and the generation mix undecided.
Primary source
The catalogue-listed date precedes the internal document date; both are preserved. Page 7 identifies the BFS A-00-2025 population scenario and rounds annual-average population to thousands. Use this as an external input comparator.
Primary source
2024 consumption is estimated by survey and extrapolation. The summary rounds it to 2.1 TWh; p.68 reports 2.08 TWh. Small business server rooms and micro data centers sit outside the matched comparison. Future consumption cases and technical savings potential remain conditional.
Primary source
Statistical estimates from solar-industry sales, installation and retirement assumptions. PV output uses a metered sample and fleet model. Battery stock gives reported capacity; available power, usable energy and contracted grid access need separate evidence.
Primary source
A 50-car sharing-fleet demonstration met grid-service requirements. Potential service revenue is gross income under the study conditions. Expected revenues fell short of additional V2X costs in the studied cases. Apply the dated conditions before comparing current offers.
Primary source
Mörel trials support approximately ±3 MW of additional flexibility under tested conditions. Duration, inflow, air entry and safe water levels constrain delivery. Some economic modelling uses incomplete and non-time-aligned annual inputs; owner profit still needs a complete project assessment.
Primary source
Commissioned economic methodology for a support mechanism. Its treatment of competing uses supports accounting for foregone sales. Administrative cost heuristics are separate from audited operator costs or endorsement of the support mechanism.
Primary source
Original public JSON, archived with an HTML filename suffix. Construction, first grid and commercial-operation dates are separate milestones. Selected completed units illustrate variation; they do not give a Swiss probability forecast.
Primary source
Original public JSON, archived with an HTML filename suffix. Construction, first grid and commercial-operation dates are separate milestones. Selected completed units illustrate variation; they do not give a Swiss probability forecast.
Primary source
Original public JSON, archived with an HTML filename suffix. Construction, first grid and commercial-operation dates are separate milestones. Selected completed units illustrate variation; they do not give a Swiss probability forecast.
Primary source
Original public JSON, archived with an HTML filename suffix. Construction, first grid and commercial-operation dates are separate milestones. Selected completed units illustrate variation; they do not give a Swiss probability forecast.
Primary source
Kernenergie section, checked on 17 September 2026: the ban remains pending the referendum process. The expected 2027 vote is a stated expectation. A successful repeal would still require project-specific approvals.
Primary source
Historical general-licence assessment, published 15 November 2010. Power classes describe proposed plants, with a 20% tolerance. Niederamt has alternative classes, not two units. Conditions and findings belong to that assessment stage.
Primary source
Opinion dated 15 December 2010; BFE catalogue publication dated 10 January 2011. Recommendations describe the historical project. Their resolution by later work has not been established in this review.
Primary source
Undated BFE history page, archived 17 September 2026. Used for historical chronology; current policy is covered separately by the dated DETEC source.
Primary source
The owners cite both changed market conditions and the political direction. Withdrawal of the applications does not establish that earlier site investigations have no reuse value.
Primary source
Conditional system modelling, coauthored by Annalisa Manera and eighteen others. The 2.6–4.9 GW result uses CHF2024 5,000/kW, 5% real WACC and a shared generation target. Security-of-supply stress analysis and existing-plant lifetime extensions are outside its scope. Selected passages reviewed; models not independently reproduced. Archived from a user-supplied download; title, authors, publication date and DOI match the publication. No independent remote byte comparison is claimed.
Primary source
Companion appendix to the report, rather than an independent study. Includes the market-driven cases without a domestic-generation target. Chart results are read qualitatively, without estimating exact capacities from pixels. The 5 TWh winter net-import goal is excluded. Documentation ambiguities remain recorded in the accompanying review. Archived from a user-supplied download; title, authors, publication date and DOI match the publication. No independent remote byte comparison is claimed.
Primary source
A financing proposal and contracted future capacity, not commissioned plants or a final spending outturn. The newer parliamentary record supplies the subsequent deliberation status.
Primary source
Provisional message accompanying the 12 June release. Sections 3.2.2–3.2.3, 3.2.10, 3.2.13 and 4.3 reviewed. CHF 2.18 billion includes CHF 300 million planning contingency; activation fuel and balancing costs are excluded. These contracted-service costs are not a generic technology price or a 2050 national reserve budget.
Primary source
Reader extract, not original HTML; direct request returned 403. The 11 August committee release suspends the main CHF 2.18 billion credit pending the next ElCom report, while treating two additional credits separately. Status checked 18 September against a record updated 11 September 2026.
Primary source
Unlimited licence duration does not establish safety or owner commitment for additional years. Axpo says it rejected operation beyond 2033. ENSI content is an archived reader extract; the owner FAQ is original HTML.
Primary source
Unlimited licence duration does not establish safety or owner commitment for additional years. Axpo says it rejected operation beyond 2033. ENSI content is an archived reader extract; the owner FAQ is original HTML.
Primary source
May 2023 scenario, not a fleet observation. The 2035 BEV stock is distinct from all plug-in vehicles. The early new-sales assumptions exceeded the subsequent 2025 result. Selected fleet and charging sections reviewed.
Primary source
Official observations: full-calendar-year new registrations versus stock at 30 September 2025. These boundaries are kept explicit in the simplified turnover sensitivity.
Primary source
Technical equations reviewed for hourly day/night classification. The chosen Swiss reference point is an analyst assumption; no country-wide identical sunrise is implied.
Primary source
Selected definitions and architecture reviewed. Publication date unestablished. A dated vehicle compatibility list is not treated as present-day equipment availability.
Primary source
V1.2 dated 17 April 2024. Footnote 4 requires a separate Power Recovery Unit for backup. Used only to explain the distinction between bidirectional charging and blackout operation; not Swiss compatibility, approval, performance or commercial availability evidence.
Primary source
Monthly observed generation. Uniform hourly distribution and continued 2035 thermal/wind output are assumptions. Retaining existing thermal generation does not establish renewable fuel or emissions neutrality.
Primary source
Official national totals; the narrower industry/services survey is a different population.
Primary source
Measured heat flows at one Danish network store. No Swiss electricity saving is inferred.
Primary source
Implementation-year project costs, before and after grants. Annual income is modelled and operating cost estimated; neither is an audited owner outturn or Swiss offer.
Primary source
Municipal account of one Canadian community. A failed project does not establish universal failure of thermal storage.
Primary source
Separate full-scale tests, reduced-scale experiments and wear models. No national extra-energy allowance or audited CHF per start is established.
Primary source
Reported investment for an ongoing overhaul, not a final audited outturn. One unit is revised at a time while the others operate. The publication forecasts November 2026 completion; no completion is inferred here.
Primary source
Historical weather and modelled sites; scaling does not establish feasible sites or hourly adequacy. Earlier archives reused unchanged; original provenance is retained in the research source catalogue.
Primary source
Cover date and later references differ. Facade winter yield/share and VAT labels have inconsistencies. Our calculations disclose the chosen inputs. Earlier archives reused unchanged; original provenance is retained in the research source catalogue.
Primary source
Publisher assumptions, not a Swiss construction offer. The seasonal reconstruction uses its own timing and an additional provisional insurance allowance. Earlier archives reused unchanged; original provenance is retained in the research source catalogue.
Primary source
Owner budget and expected full-project generation. Rounded panel and capacity counts differ; no audited final cost. Earlier archives reused unchanged; original provenance is retained in the research source catalogue.
Primary source
Owner-reported production from part of the plant over one winter; no national extrapolation or validation of full-project annual output. Earlier archives reused unchanged; original provenance is retained in the research source catalogue.
Primary source
Budget and generation forecast. Planned operation in 2029 is conditional; the owner reports construction cannot start pending the Federal Supreme Court decision. Earlier archives reused unchanged; original provenance is retained in the research source catalogue.
Primary source
Storage shift, not new annual natural-water generation. Completion, usable water and voluntary owner access remain conditional. Earlier archives reused unchanged; original provenance is retained in the research source catalogue.
Primary source
National scenario totals include asset renewal and demand electrification. They are not an incremental solar-overbuild bill. Earlier archives reused unchanged; original provenance is retained in the research source catalogue.
Primary source
Method assumptions; the Swiss screening purchase prices are separately declared scenarios, not national procurement offers. Earlier archives reused unchanged; original provenance is retained in the research source catalogue.
Primary source
Currency-year convention for the Axpo inputs; a consumer price index does not measure construction escalation. Earlier archives reused unchanged; original provenance is retained in the research source catalogue.
Primary source
Primary-source reader extraction preserved. The original PDF download failed. Planned major refurbishment with an extended schedule; grid return differs from restart permission.
Primary source
Archived source: archived. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Archived source: archived. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Archived source: archived. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Archived source: archived. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Archived source: selected reader extraction. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Archived source: selected reader extraction. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Archived source: selected reader extraction. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Archived source: selected reader extraction. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Archived source: previously archived original. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Archived source: previously archived original. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Archived source: previously archived original. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Archived source: previously archived original. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Archived source: previously archived original. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Archived source: previously archived original. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Archived source: selected reader extraction. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Archived source: selected reader extraction. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Archived source: selected reader extraction. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Archived source: selected reader extraction. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Archived source: existing catalogue entry. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Archived source: previously archived reader extraction. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Archived source: archived original. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Archived source: original pdf archived. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Archived source: original pdf archived. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Archived source: original pdf archived. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Archived source: original pdf archived. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Archived source: original pdf archived. Exact review coverage is recorded in the source catalogue.
Primary source
Committee release published 1 September, despite 31 August in its URL. The supplemental credits and deferred main construction/readiness credit are separate decisions.
Primary source
Owner report published 25 September with observations from mid-September. Capacity is rounded and explicitly almost 6 MWp. Autumn 2027 commissioning and 17 GWh/year are forecasts; no new measured seasonal total or capacity factor is supplied.
Primary source
Government policy decision of 25 September: no new support instruments for now. Existing instruments and monitoring continue. This decision supplies no contracted reserve-fuel volume or delivery guarantee. Hydrogen-derived synthetic fuels are distinct from the HVO in the reserve proposal.
Primary source
Reports parliamentary agreement, a referendum and an expected 2027 vote. The ban remains in force; no individual project permission is established.
Primary source
Public legal summary checked 2 October 2026. Unlimited operator liability differs from available insurance and international compensation. No private plant policy is disclosed.
Primary source
Cross-border capacities depend on cooperation scenarios; they do not establish energy available abroad or WattInfo's exact 2 GW assumption.
Primary source
Explains the statutory 5 TWh winter-import guide value and contrasts an energy resilience measure with transmission capacity.
Primary source
Transmission operator's explanation and position; agreement access does not guarantee production or a particular Swiss import volume.
Primary source
Explains risks of exclusion from coordinated capacity calculation. The percentage is not Switzerland's share of border capacity or guaranteed imports.
Primary source
Self-reported annual additional generation at existing large hydro plants. Not a winter-energy total, national new-build pipeline or guaranteed profitability.
Primary source
Consolidated legal text; version date is distinct from retrieval date.
Primary source
Consolidated legal text; version date is distinct from retrieval date.
Primary source
Consolidation as of 1 January 2026; permission for a particular thermal plant is separate.
Primary source
Official explanation; no site-specific power or energy deduction is inferred.
Primary source
Official explanation; no site-specific power or energy deduction is inferred.
Primary source
A project timetable, not completed results or a demand forecast.
Primary source
Grid-planning scenarios. Demand baselines, target dates and efficiency assumptions differ from the WattInfo programme.
Primary source
Selected text archived through the web reader after the original download failed. This is a partial capture, not a complete original document.
Primary source
Selected text archived through the web reader after the original download failed. This is a partial capture, not a complete original document.
Primary source
Selected text archived through the web reader after the original download failed. This is a partial capture, not a complete original document.
Primary source
Published scenario or industry proposal. Its demand, imports and generation boundary differs from the WattInfo programme.
Primary source
Published scenario or industry proposal. Its demand, imports and generation boundary differs from the WattInfo programme.
Primary source
Published scenario or industry proposal. Its demand, imports and generation boundary differs from the WattInfo programme.
Primary source
Installation meters in Zurich canton, not household counts. Pilot tariffs and controls are excluded; ordinary utility control remains. CC BY 4.0; only aggregate results are republished.
Primary source
The measured winter is a load-shape example. Mixed building sizes, one regional weather series and limited severe cold prevent direct national extrapolation.
Primary source
Existing buildings with residential use, including unknown or absent heating. Administrative counts differ from corrected statistics. Energy-reference area is distinct from footprint area. Only aggregate results are published.
Primary source
Proposed maximum unpackaged high-level-waste volume, including reserves for longer existing-reactor operation and lower burnup. An application quantity, not approved capacity or new-reactor headroom.
Primary source
Nagra explicitly excludes new reactors from the existing application reserves. This dated statement defines the application scope; it is not used for current nuclear-law status.
Primary source
Reference emplacement schedule for the existing waste programme. The cover date is April 2023, despite the March directory in the source URL. A later reactor requires its own storage, packaging and disposal schedule.
Primary source
Experimental statistical estimates. Sum the 41 grouped sectors once; preserve missing values and coefficients of variation. Gas and light fuel oil are fuel inputs, not additional electricity demand or exclusively process heat.
Primary source
Operator commercial position, not a binding station offer. Electricity-taking shareholders carry market risk in the described partner model. Test competing partnerships and competent public ownership on equivalent costs and responsibilities.
Primary source
Swiss day-ahead prices weighted by actual quarter-hour injection of metered technology groups, excluding VAT. These are remuneration references, not full owner receipts, generation costs or a demonstrated storage-arbitrage spread. Certificate-inclusive premium references are excluded.
Primary source
Signature counting and a running referendum period are administrative stages. Blank counts, outcome and vote-number fields establish neither a certified referendum nor a vote date, legal commencement or plant licence. The public register embeds the archived official dataset.
Primary source
Draft training, qualification, refresher and contractor requirements for operation and decommissioning. It has not been treated as an adopted new rule and does not establish staffing numbers, salaries or simulator costs.
Primary source
Preserved rendered excerpt after direct downloads returned HTTP 403. The complete draft is archived separately. Consultation timing does not establish adoption or implementation.
Primary source
The referendum has formally qualified. This establishes neither approval of the amendment nor permission to build a plant.
Primary source
DETEC reports a vote in 2027. No exact voting date is established in the reviewed record.
Primary source
Referendum deadline: 21 January 2027. Commencement is set separately. The qualified court deadline does not guarantee a complete project approval time.
Primary source
Published Max-E versus BAU scenario. Table 5 gives 18.6 PJ of additional electricity in 2050; the summary says about 6 TWh. Technology adoption, costs and industrial process temperatures remain conditional.
Primary source
Owner plan: 400 MW / 800 MWh, targeted for Q1 2031. No commissioned capacity, all-in price or usable-energy warranty is established.
Primary source
Reported stocks and capacities change over time. The nearest-week comparison is our calculation; stocks do not establish dispatch rights or a shortage forecast.
Primary source
Weekly reports describe Sunday at midnight; publication follows later. Compare observation dates across publications.
Primary source
Submitted lifecycle estimates at 1 January 2026 prices. Includes accrued costs and federal waste; post-operation is separate. Existing-fleet cases do not price or authorise 80-year operation or new-reactor waste.
Primary source
Submission for independent review, not a final assessment of operator contributions or remaining funding needs.
Primary source
January 2025 audit, based on evidence through 2024. Flamanville estimates in 2015 euros have overlapping boundaries: construction, overnight and financed totals. They are dated estimates, not final outturns or Swiss offers.
Primary source
Reported annual heat efficiency is 90%. Public processed measurements do not reproduce its annual charge/discharge totals. Publication metadata gives only a year; no exact release date is established.
Public commentary
An interview records Manera’s position. Read alongside SCNAT’s response. Its tariff comparison is a policy argument; gross tariff revenue is distinct from net subsidy and money available after operating and financing costs.
Public commentary
SCNAT attributes its timing estimate to sequential project processes and describes profitability as uncertain. This records its response without adjudicating the underlying report. Exact post date remains unverified; the context is the interview of 13 July 2025.
News reporting
Secondary reporting of the 28 September National Council vote and pending Council of States consideration. Exact credit amounts come from the primary committee release and federal message. No final parliamentary approval is established.
Project model
Project demand scenarios conditional on the stated inputs. The cases explore different assumptions; their likelihood has not been estimated.
Project model
One national node, perfect foresight and aggregate natural hydro. Commercial viability and grid feasibility require separate assessment.
Project model
Historical-price benchmark with assumed capital costs and financing. A procurement decision requires supplier offers.
Data and calculations
Reproducible calculations from BFE table 15. Five- and ten-year comparisons include every year, including outages. Future supply needs its own availability and retirement assumptions.
Data and calculations
Observed BFE seasonal data, exact unit conversions and a hypothetical storage example. Net imports measure the cross-border trade balance; unserved demand is a separate quantity.
Data and calculations
Derived from preserved datasets. The selected winter week deliberately tests difficult conditions with hypothetical new reactors. Household and storage examples use stated assumptions.
Data and calculations
Observed prices, commissioned study scenarios and explicit analyst assumptions are labelled separately. The research index resolves the source IDs in the downloads. Scripts use the research-repository layout; selected inputs and formulas are also supplied directly. The comparisons inform individual decisions. National costs, procurement prices, tariffs and investment returns need additional project and system evidence.
Data and calculations
All three 2050 results reproduce the archived model exactly. Future parameters are analyst assumptions. The download lists every input, including charging allocation, industrial heating, cooling and the accounting residual. Actual future demand depends on how those inputs develop.
Data and calculations
Data center increments subtract the rounded study baseline from each 2030 case. EP2060 population cells are checked in the original workbook. These observations inform future model choices; the existing model and its totals remain unchanged.
Data and calculations
Construction intervals are checked against original PRIS dates. First Swiss operation in 2042, 2047 or 2053 follows explicit analyst durations, without probabilities. Beznau’s historical average uses 2021–2025 net output. Full third-party originals remain outside the public downloads.
Data and calculations
Directly transcribed proposal parameters and selected historical findings, with an editorial reuse recommendation. Niederamt’s two power classes are alternatives. Reuse savings remain unquantified; the conditional Swiss delivery scenarios are unchanged. Blank savings cells in the CSV mean unknown, not zero.
Data and calculations
Curated transcription and qualitative figure review, with separate attribution of public commentary. Models were not independently reproduced. No exact market-case capacities are inferred from plotted points. Earlier WattInfo demand and delivery calculations remain unchanged.
Data and calculations
Historical replacement scale and an assumed reserve overlay on an existing hypothetical nuclear-inclusive stress case. Preserves the original model and its limitations. No national cost optimum, fleet delivery forecast or probabilistic blackout estimate.
Project model
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments. The 2035 bridge complements the proposed new-nuclear programme. Supply shortfalls identify further procurement needs; no complete funded national plan is claimed.
Evidence synthesis
Editorial synthesis of catalogued evidence. Diagram sizes are qualitative; no complete portfolio price or technology cost ranking is calculated. Existing extension results and new-build costs have separate boundaries.
Evidence synthesis
Editorial choices linked to catalogued research. The 2.6 TWh/2.3 GW screen covers two fixed-charging stress cases with 2 GW imports and a long reactor outage. The 2021/22 case also has a smaller summer gap. No final procurement margin, complete 2050 fleet cost or construction commitment is established.
Project model
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days. Source review includes data center report printed pp123–127, BFE T25 original cells and cited thermal/hydro sections. Models are independent calculations on archived inputs; no owner profitability or Swiss site permitting is established.
Project model
Separates analyst-selected severe outage from routine operation and distinguishes energy procurement from standby reserve. No new outage probability, dispatch run, cost optimum or regulatory requirement is asserted.
Data and calculations
Swiss final electricity consumption, excluding network losses and pumping. Annual mean is total / five; daily and power means use the actual 1,826 days and 43,824 hours. No winter peak, hourly profile, city allocation or future demand is inferred. A magnitude comparison does not establish available supply, storage duration at a specified load or firm generation.
Evidence synthesis
The 24 qualitative market results are copied unchanged from the earlier reviewed chart transcription. No precise capacities are digitised and no model is rerun. The scope descriptions do not isolate the cause of differences in results.
Evidence synthesis
2035 has thirteen weather years; 2050 has three selected years. Perfect forecasts, pooled hydro and simplified domestic grid. No secured supplier slots, Swiss project price, owner return, reserve size or sovereignty guarantee. The separate owner budget includes provisional insurance/waste allowances and unpriced residual liability.
Evidence synthesis
Constant 2025 CHF assumptions with disclosed mixed source vintages. Seasonal energy calculations, not equally reliable portfolios or firm delivered prices. National sites, storage, backup, market value and incremental networks still require matched modelling.
Evidence synthesis
No recalibrated case, uniqueness range, current legal verification or market-price result. Original evidence preserved.
Evidence synthesis
Matched import effects, different solar input boundaries and an hourly physical bound for the older illustration. No new calibrated dispatch or market outcome.
Evidence synthesis
Conditional scenarios with matched solar and reactor assumptions. Hydro levels, imports and fleets vary explicitly. No internal network model, market-price forecast or probabilistic reserve size.
Data and calculations
Conditional physical screens. Annual energy and minimum peak are optimized; shortage dates and trade remain schedule-dependent. No least-cost, probability or secured-delivery claim.
Data and calculations
Project status as reviewed in September 2026. Potential, winter shifting, annual generation and turbine power are distinct. Unapproved quantities are not committed supply.
Data and calculations
Calculated illustrations and historical checks. Fuel prices, financing, saleable output and the additional disposal contribution are assumptions, not offers.
Data and calculations
Aggregates from catalogued evidence. The heating sample does not set national demand. The 2050 plus 60-year disposal example is an assumption, not a promised service date. Earlier supply scenarios are unchanged.
Data and calculations
Derived and selected values from catalogued evidence. Fuel conversion does not set future electricity demand. Existing model inputs, results and earlier records are preserved.
Data and calculations
Cost comparisons retain their price years. Heat efficiency differs from electricity delivery; public-data gaps limit verification.
Each figure has a definition, a period and limits on what it can establish.
57.5 TWh · 2024
Annual final electricity consumption in Switzerland.
2024 model baseline. Grid losses and pumped-storage charging sit outside final consumption. Newer observations are available in the 2025 statistics.
93.4 TWh · 2050
Annual final electricity demand under the project's central assumptions.
Additional data center, hydrogen, e-fuel and district-heat demand is set to zero. Aviation conversion is outside the model. Further growth in these uses needs an explicit allowance.
Method: Sum of baseline activity adjusted for population, sector activity and efficiency, plus specified fuel-to-electricity conversions. See demand.py, parameters.json and all central-2050.json inputs.
60.8 TWh · 2050
Annual final electricity demand under this set of assumptions.
An alternative combination of inputs, with the same scope limits as the central case. The likelihood of each case remains unestimated.
Method: Same model equations as the central case, with scenario-specific parameters in scenario-results.json.
147.2 TWh · 2050
Annual final electricity demand under this set of assumptions.
An alternative combination of inputs, with the same scope limits as the central case. The likelihood of each case remains unestimated.
Method: Same model equations as the central case, with scenario-specific parameters in scenario-results.json.
18.4 TWh · 2025
Sum of BFE table 15 generation for the four operating reactors. Gösgen had an extended outage.
Covers the stated year. Use the longer record to assess output variation. Gösgen’s BFE 2025 figure differs from operator electricity-only output; that discrepancy remains unresolved.
Method: (2,909 + 2,483 + 3,429 + 9,558) GWh ÷ 1,000 = 18.379 TWh.
45 TWh · 2050
Minimum average annual generation target reported by BFE.
Minimum generation target from the corrected March 2026 report. Delivery requires the relevant projects and operation.
39.2 TWh · 2050
Minimum average annual generation target reported by BFE.
Individual projects still require funding, permits and construction.
21.1 TWh · 2050 scenario · 2012 hydro year
Annual exports in the no-battery case; imports are set to zero.
Assumes 8.8 GW of hypothetical new nuclear and 26 GWp of solar. Uses one national node, perfect foresight and aggregate natural hydro.
Method: exports_gwh ÷ 1,000; net exports equal exports because imports are zero.
216.7 GWh · Same no-battery case
Total electricity demand the model cannot serve.
The specified hypothetical case leaves some hourly demand unserved despite annual exports. Government scenarios require their own matched tests.
Method: Sum of hourly unserved demand in case n8-pv26-2012-battery_none.
75'649 CHF/MW/year · 2025 prices
Modelled trading margin after energy purchases and trading fees for a 1 MW / 4 MWh battery.
Calculated with perfect knowledge of prices. Capital and operating costs and other revenue markets are outside this trading margin.
Method: Sales minus purchases minus trading fees; 85% round-trip efficiency, 365-cycle limit, fixed 0.95 CHF/EUR and CHF 1/MWh trading fee in each direction.
224'692 CHF/MW/year · Illustrative cost case
Annualised capital cost plus fixed operating and augmentation allowance for a 1 MW / 4 MWh battery.
Uses assumed purchase and ownership costs. A specific project needs a supplier price and a complete revenue case.
Method: CHF 1,500,000 × [0.07 × 1.07^15 ÷ (1.07^15 − 1) + 0.04]. Capital assumption: CHF 600/kW × 1,000 kW + CHF 225/kWh × 4,000 kWh.
91 % · 2025
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Capacity factor reflects operating time and output while running. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions.
Method: 2909 GWh × 1,000 ÷ 3197400 MWh × 100; the denominator sums each year’s net capacity × actual hours.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
2'909 GWh/year · 2025
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions.
Method: 2909 GWh ÷ 1 calendar years.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
86 % · 2021–2025
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Capacity factor reflects operating time and output while running. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions.
Method: 13754 GWh × 1,000 ÷ 15995760 MWh × 100; the denominator sums each year’s net capacity × actual hours.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
2'750.8 GWh/year · 2021–2025
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions.
Method: 13754 GWh ÷ 5 calendar years.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
68 % · 2016–2025
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Capacity factor reflects operating time and output while running. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions.
Method: 21768 GWh × 1,000 ÷ 32000280 MWh × 100; the denominator sums each year’s net capacity × actual hours.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
2'176.8 GWh/year · 2016–2025
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions.
Method: 21768 GWh ÷ 10 calendar years.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
77.7 % · 2025
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Capacity factor reflects operating time and output while running. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions.
Method: 2483 GWh × 1,000 ÷ 3197400 MWh × 100; the denominator sums each year’s net capacity × actual hours.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
2'483 GWh/year · 2025
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions.
Method: 2483 GWh ÷ 1 calendar years.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
87.8 % · 2021–2025
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Capacity factor reflects operating time and output while running. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions.
Method: 14037 GWh × 1,000 ÷ 15995760 MWh × 100; the denominator sums each year’s net capacity × actual hours.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
2'807.4 GWh/year · 2021–2025
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions.
Method: 14037 GWh ÷ 5 calendar years.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
89.2 % · 2016–2025
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Capacity factor reflects operating time and output while running. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions.
Method: 28554 GWh × 1,000 ÷ 32000280 MWh × 100; the denominator sums each year’s net capacity × actual hours.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
2'855.4 GWh/year · 2016–2025
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions.
Method: 28554 GWh ÷ 10 calendar years.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
38.8 % · 2025
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Capacity factor reflects operating time and output while running. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions. The unresolved difference from operator electricity-only output in 2025 remains.
Method: 3429 GWh × 1,000 ÷ 8847600 MWh × 100; the denominator sums each year’s net capacity × actual hours.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
3'429 GWh/year · 2025
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions. The unresolved difference from operator electricity-only output in 2025 remains.
Method: 3429 GWh ÷ 1 calendar years.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
79.2 % · 2021–2025
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Capacity factor reflects operating time and output while running. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions. The unresolved difference from operator electricity-only output in 2025 remains.
Method: 35061 GWh × 1,000 ÷ 44262240 MWh × 100; the denominator sums each year’s net capacity × actual hours.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
7'012.2 GWh/year · 2021–2025
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions. The unresolved difference from operator electricity-only output in 2025 remains.
Method: 35061 GWh ÷ 5 calendar years.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
85.3 % · 2016–2025
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Capacity factor reflects operating time and output while running. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions. The unresolved difference from operator electricity-only output in 2025 remains.
Method: 75515 GWh × 1,000 ÷ 88548720 MWh × 100; the denominator sums each year’s net capacity × actual hours.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
7'551.5 GWh/year · 2016–2025
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions. The unresolved difference from operator electricity-only output in 2025 remains.
Method: 75515 GWh ÷ 10 calendar years.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
88.5 % · 2025
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Capacity factor reflects operating time and output while running. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions.
Method: 9558 GWh × 1,000 ÷ 10801080 MWh × 100; the denominator sums each year’s net capacity × actual hours.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
9'558 GWh/year · 2025
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions.
Method: 9558 GWh ÷ 1 calendar years.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
80.8 % · 2021–2025
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Capacity factor reflects operating time and output while running. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions.
Method: 43487 GWh × 1,000 ÷ 53807232 MWh × 100; the denominator sums each year’s net capacity × actual hours.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
8'697.4 GWh/year · 2021–2025
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions.
Method: 43487 GWh ÷ 5 calendar years.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
75.4 % · 2016–2025
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Capacity factor reflects operating time and output while running. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions.
Method: 80936 GWh × 1,000 ÷ 107301792 MWh × 100; the denominator sums each year’s net capacity × actual hours.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
8'093.6 GWh/year · 2016–2025
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions.
Method: 80936 GWh ÷ 10 calendar years.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
90.4 % · 2016–2024
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Capacity factor reflects operating time and output while running. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions. This comparison ends before the 2025 outage; the five- and ten-year comparisons retain that year.
Method: 72086 GWh × 1,000 ÷ 79701120 MWh × 100; the denominator sums each year’s net capacity × actual hours.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
8'009.6 GWh/year · 2016–2024
Historical calculation using every calendar year in the stated period.
Generation is rounded to whole GWh. Future supply needs separate availability assumptions. This comparison ends before the 2025 outage; the five- and ten-year comparisons retain that year.
Method: 72086 GWh ÷ 9 calendar years.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
20.7 TWh/year · 2016–2025
Mean output of the four reactors still operating at the review date. All ten years are included.
Includes every outage year for the same four reactors; Mühleberg is excluded throughout. Uses the BFE series. Future availability depends on operation and retirement decisions.
Method: 206773 GWh ÷ 10 years ÷ 1,000 = 20.6773 TWh/year.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025
1.8 TWh · 2020-10-01 to 2021-03-31
Physical imports minus physical exports. A negative value means net exports.
Net physical trade over the season. Hourly flows and unserved demand are separate measures.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Swiss seasonal balances and electricity examples
7.8 TWh · 2021-10-01 to 2022-03-31
Physical imports minus physical exports. A negative value means net exports.
Net physical trade over the season. Hourly flows and unserved demand are separate measures.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Swiss seasonal balances and electricity examples
3.6 TWh · 2022-10-01 to 2023-03-31
Physical imports minus physical exports. A negative value means net exports.
Net physical trade over the season. Hourly flows and unserved demand are separate measures.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Swiss seasonal balances and electricity examples
-2 TWh · 2023-10-01 to 2024-03-31
Physical imports minus physical exports. A negative value means net exports.
Net physical trade over the season. Hourly flows and unserved demand are separate measures.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Swiss seasonal balances and electricity examples
0.7 TWh · 2024-10-01 to 2025-03-31
Physical imports minus physical exports. A negative value means net exports.
Net physical trade over the season. Hourly flows and unserved demand are separate measures.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Swiss seasonal balances and electricity examples
4.6 TWh · 2025-04-01 to 2025-09-30
Physical exports minus physical imports.
The year runs October–September. Imports can occur within a period that has net exports overall.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Swiss seasonal balances and electricity examples
3.9 TWh · 2024-10-01 to 2025-09-30
Physical exports minus physical imports.
The year runs October–September. Imports can occur within a period that has net exports overall.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Swiss seasonal balances and electricity examples
18.5 TWh · 2024-10-01 to 2025-03-31
Domestic generation in BFE table 5, before deducting storage pumping input.
Domestic generation before subtracting pumping input and network losses. Hydro includes pumped-storage output. Household electricity labels have a different scope.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Swiss seasonal balances and electricity examples
12.6 TWh · 2024-10-01 to 2025-03-31
Domestic generation in BFE table 5, before deducting storage pumping input.
Domestic generation before subtracting pumping input and network losses. Hydro includes pumped-storage output. Household electricity labels have a different scope.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Swiss seasonal balances and electricity examples
1.9 TWh · 2024-10-01 to 2025-03-31
Domestic generation in BFE table 5, before deducting storage pumping input.
Domestic generation before subtracting pumping input and network losses. Hydro includes pumped-storage output. Household electricity labels have a different scope.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Swiss seasonal balances and electricity examples
1.8 TWh · 2024-10-01 to 2025-03-31
Domestic generation in BFE table 5, before deducting storage pumping input.
Domestic generation before subtracting pumping input and network losses. Hydro includes pumped-storage output. Household electricity labels have a different scope.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Swiss seasonal balances and electricity examples
0.1 TWh · 2024-10-01 to 2025-03-31
Domestic generation in BFE table 5, before deducting storage pumping input.
Domestic generation before subtracting pumping input and network losses. Hydro includes pumped-storage output. Household electricity labels have a different scope.
Swiss Electricity Statistics 2025Swiss seasonal balances and electricity examples
4 hours · Illustrative constant-output example
Assumed usable energy of 4 GWh divided by assumed output of 1 GW.
Hypothetical full store with constant output. Recharge, further discharge losses and reserve are set to zero. Charging energy and cost are outside the example.
Method: duration (h) = usable output energy (GWh) / constant power (GW) = 4 / 1
Energy storage for electricity generationSwiss seasonal balances and electricity examples
240 GWh · Project design reviewed 2026-09-17
Additional energy storage associated with the proposed lake enlargement.
Proposed additional storage. Annual new generation is a separate quantity; delivery depends on completing the enlargement.
Method: Operator design estimate; not a WattInfo calculation.
60 GWh · Operator proposal dated 2025-01-16
Approximate production moved from summer into winter.
Annual generation unchanged; delivery and economics conditional.
Method: Operator project estimate.
83 CHF million · Operator estimate dated 2025-01-16
Indicative investment in the proposed dam raising.
Dated operator estimate for the proposed project. Procurement and final expenditure remain to be established.
Method: Operator budget estimate.
168 MW · Investment decision 2026-03-27
Two reversible machines of 84 MW each.
Rated power of the machines. Stored energy and the pumps’ electrical-input rating require separate specifications.
Method: 2 × 84 MW
300 CHF million · 2026-03-27
Approximate budget approved by the operator.
Construction budget at the stated date. Final expenditure depends on project delivery.
Method: Operator investment budget.
21'317.6 kWh/year · Illustrative example
Fuel input for the assumed heating and travel service.
Assumed home and car with the same useful heat and travel in both cases. Compares purchased fuel with purchased electricity. Household representativeness and equipment performance remain unmeasured. Other household uses, upstream and embodied energy, costs and hourly winter peaks are outside the example.
Method: 12000 / 0.85 + 12000 × 0.6
6'400 kWh/year · Illustrative example
Electricity input for the same assumed heat and distance.
Assumed home and car with the same useful heat and travel in both cases. Compares purchased fuel with purchased electricity. Household representativeness and equipment performance remain unmeasured. Other household uses, upstream and embodied energy, costs and hourly winter peaks are outside the example.
Method: 12000 / 3 + 12000 × 0.18 / 0.9
118.4 GWh · 6–12 February, 2012 weather / hypothetical 2050 system
Hourly unmet model-bus demand summed across the selected stress week.
Simulated unmet demand under the specified stress conditions, with imports and batteries excluded. Its probability has not been estimated.
Method: Sum 168 hourly unserved GW × 1 hour.
Visual explanations: seasonal stress, demand and storageHourly system screening: no-battery case
2'497 CHF/kWp · 2025
Installer scope through building grid disconnector
Rooftop survey only; other installation types need separate offers. Excludes external design, roof work, network strengthening, storage, financing and lifetime operation/replacement. Q1–Q3 contains the middle half of surveyed prices. Eastern/central Switzerland is underrepresented, offers may be duplicated, and the largest class has seven records.
1'911 CHF/kWp · 2025
Installer scope through building grid disconnector
Rooftop survey only; other installation types need separate offers. Excludes external design, roof work, network strengthening, storage, financing and lifetime operation/replacement. Q1–Q3 contains the middle half of surveyed prices. Eastern/central Switzerland is underrepresented, offers may be duplicated, and the largest class has seven records.
1'428 CHF/kWp · 2025
Installer scope through building grid disconnector
Rooftop survey only; other installation types need separate offers. Excludes external design, roof work, network strengthening, storage, financing and lifetime operation/replacement. Q1–Q3 contains the middle half of surveyed prices. Eastern/central Switzerland is underrepresented, offers may be duplicated, and the largest class has seven records.
1'102 CHF/kWp · 2025
Installer scope through building grid disconnector
Rooftop survey only; other installation types need separate offers. Excludes external design, roof work, network strengthening, storage, financing and lifetime operation/replacement. Q1–Q3 contains the middle half of surveyed prices. Eastern/central Switzerland is underrepresented, offers may be duplicated, and the largest class has seven records.
800 CHF/kWp · 2025
Installer scope through building grid disconnector
Rooftop survey only; other installation types need separate offers. Excludes external design, roof work, network strengthening, storage, financing and lifetime operation/replacement. Q1–Q3 contains the middle half of surveyed prices. Eastern/central Switzerland is underrepresented, offers may be duplicated, and the largest class has seven records.
660 CHF/kWp · 2025
Installer scope through building grid disconnector
Rooftop survey only; other installation types need separate offers. Excludes external design, roof work, network strengthening, storage, financing and lifetime operation/replacement. Q1–Q3 contains the middle half of surveyed prices. Eastern/central Switzerland is underrepresented, offers may be duplicated, and the largest class has seven records.
46 CHF/MWh · 2026-03-12
Break-even price for additional investment to extend an existing reactor, including operation, fuel and waste costs.
Study of an existing-plant extension. Scheduled cases omit additional decommissioning costs and assume sufficient funding at 60 years. Early closure includes continuing shutdown costs; winter-only operation assumes six months. Approval and actual market prices remain conditions.
Method: Study discounted-cash-flow break-even price; operator best-estimate extension investment, operating costs and 7% nominal pretax finance. See the original report for its scenario-specific cash flows.
78 CHF/MWh · 2026-03-12
Break-even price for additional investment to extend an existing reactor, including operation, fuel and waste costs.
Study of an existing-plant extension. Scheduled cases omit additional decommissioning costs and assume sufficient funding at 60 years. Early closure includes continuing shutdown costs; winter-only operation assumes six months. Approval and actual market prices remain conditions.
Method: Study discounted-cash-flow break-even price; operator best-estimate extension investment, operating costs and 7% nominal pretax finance. See the original report for its scenario-specific cash flows.
134 CHF/MWh · 2026-03-12
Break-even price for additional investment to extend an existing reactor, including operation, fuel and waste costs.
Study of an existing-plant extension. Scheduled cases omit additional decommissioning costs and assume sufficient funding at 60 years. Early closure includes continuing shutdown costs; winter-only operation assumes six months. Approval and actual market prices remain conditions.
Method: Study discounted-cash-flow break-even price; operator best-estimate extension investment, operating costs and 7% nominal pretax finance. See the original report for its scenario-specific cash flows.
44 CHF/MWh · 2026-03-12
Break-even price for additional investment to extend an existing reactor, including operation, fuel and waste costs.
Study of an existing-plant extension. Scheduled cases omit additional decommissioning costs and assume sufficient funding at 60 years. Early closure includes continuing shutdown costs; winter-only operation assumes six months. Approval and actual market prices remain conditions.
Method: Study discounted-cash-flow break-even price; operator best-estimate extension investment, operating costs and 7% nominal pretax finance. See the original report for its scenario-specific cash flows.
72 CHF/MWh · 2026-03-12
Break-even price for additional investment to extend an existing reactor, including operation, fuel and waste costs.
Study of an existing-plant extension. Scheduled cases omit additional decommissioning costs and assume sufficient funding at 60 years. Early closure includes continuing shutdown costs; winter-only operation assumes six months. Approval and actual market prices remain conditions.
Method: Study discounted-cash-flow break-even price; operator best-estimate extension investment, operating costs and 7% nominal pretax finance. See the original report for its scenario-specific cash flows.
104 CHF/MWh · 2026-03-12
Break-even price for additional investment to extend an existing reactor, including operation, fuel and waste costs.
Study of an existing-plant extension. Scheduled cases omit additional decommissioning costs and assume sufficient funding at 60 years. Early closure includes continuing shutdown costs; winter-only operation assumes six months. Approval and actual market prices remain conditions.
Method: Study discounted-cash-flow break-even price; operator best-estimate extension investment, operating costs and 7% nominal pretax finance. See the original report for its scenario-specific cash flows.
103 CHF/MWh · 2026-Q1
Swiss day-ahead prices weighted by actual quarter-hour injection of measured cohort; VAT excluded
Historical wholesale energy-value benchmark for the measured group and period. Capacity/flexibility value, subsidies, supply contracts, retail savings and plant costs are outside its scope. Actual owner revenue and profit depend on those additional terms.
Swiss reference market prices: first two quarters of 2026How Swiss reference market prices are calculated
39 CHF/MWh · 2026-Q2
Swiss day-ahead prices weighted by actual quarter-hour injection of measured cohort; VAT excluded
Historical wholesale energy-value benchmark for the measured group and period. Capacity/flexibility value, subsidies, supply contracts, retail savings and plant costs are outside its scope. Actual owner revenue and profit depend on those additional terms.
Swiss reference market prices: first two quarters of 2026How Swiss reference market prices are calculated
117 CHF/MWh · 2026-Q1
Swiss day-ahead prices weighted by actual quarter-hour injection of measured cohort; VAT excluded
Historical wholesale energy-value benchmark for the measured group and period. Capacity/flexibility value, subsidies, supply contracts, retail savings and plant costs are outside its scope. Actual owner revenue and profit depend on those additional terms.
Swiss reference market prices: first two quarters of 2026How Swiss reference market prices are calculated
93 CHF/MWh · 2026-Q2
Swiss day-ahead prices weighted by actual quarter-hour injection of measured cohort; VAT excluded
Historical wholesale energy-value benchmark for the measured group and period. Capacity/flexibility value, subsidies, supply contracts, retail savings and plant costs are outside its scope. Actual owner revenue and profit depend on those additional terms.
Swiss reference market prices: first two quarters of 2026How Swiss reference market prices are calculated
117 CHF/MWh · 2026-Q1
Swiss day-ahead prices weighted by actual quarter-hour injection of measured cohort; VAT excluded
Historical wholesale energy-value benchmark for the measured group and period. Capacity/flexibility value, subsidies, supply contracts, retail savings and plant costs are outside its scope. Actual owner revenue and profit depend on those additional terms.
Swiss reference market prices: first two quarters of 2026How Swiss reference market prices are calculated
89 CHF/MWh · 2026-Q2
Swiss day-ahead prices weighted by actual quarter-hour injection of measured cohort; VAT excluded
Historical wholesale energy-value benchmark for the measured group and period. Capacity/flexibility value, subsidies, supply contracts, retail savings and plant costs are outside its scope. Actual owner revenue and profit depend on those additional terms.
Swiss reference market prices: first two quarters of 2026How Swiss reference market prices are calculated
117 CHF/MWh · 2026-Q1
Swiss day-ahead prices weighted by actual quarter-hour injection of measured cohort; VAT excluded
Historical wholesale energy-value benchmark for the measured group and period. Capacity/flexibility value, subsidies, supply contracts, retail savings and plant costs are outside its scope. Actual owner revenue and profit depend on those additional terms.
Swiss reference market prices: first two quarters of 2026How Swiss reference market prices are calculated
88 CHF/MWh · 2026-Q2
Swiss day-ahead prices weighted by actual quarter-hour injection of measured cohort; VAT excluded
Historical wholesale energy-value benchmark for the measured group and period. Capacity/flexibility value, subsidies, supply contracts, retail savings and plant costs are outside its scope. Actual owner revenue and profit depend on those additional terms.
Swiss reference market prices: first two quarters of 2026How Swiss reference market prices are calculated
80 CHF/MWh · Illustrative future project; constant CHF assumptions
Partial generation cost for assumed CHF 10,000/kW overnight, 60 operating years and 90% utilization. Same plant and operating allowances in each case.
Partial cost under analyst assumptions; procurement requires project offers. Excludes unresolved dismantling/fund costs, full insurance terms, taxes, grid and backup. Additional site overhead and replacement supply during longer construction are also excluded.
Method: Commissioning capital = overnight cost × mean((1+r)^(T-k-0.5), k=0…T-1). Cost = (commissioning capital × CRF(r,60) + CHF 120/kW-year) / (8.76 × 0.9) + CHF 15/MWh fuel/variable/waste allowance.
84 CHF/MWh · Illustrative future project; constant CHF assumptions
Partial generation cost for assumed CHF 10,000/kW overnight, 60 operating years and 90% utilization. Same plant and operating allowances in each case.
Partial cost under analyst assumptions; procurement requires project offers. Excludes unresolved dismantling/fund costs, full insurance terms, taxes, grid and backup. Additional site overhead and replacement supply during longer construction are also excluded.
Method: Commissioning capital = overnight cost × mean((1+r)^(T-k-0.5), k=0…T-1). Cost = (commissioning capital × CRF(r,60) + CHF 120/kW-year) / (8.76 × 0.9) + CHF 15/MWh fuel/variable/waste allowance.
88 CHF/MWh · Illustrative future project; constant CHF assumptions
Partial generation cost for assumed CHF 10,000/kW overnight, 60 operating years and 90% utilization. Same plant and operating allowances in each case.
Partial cost under analyst assumptions; procurement requires project offers. Excludes unresolved dismantling/fund costs, full insurance terms, taxes, grid and backup. Additional site overhead and replacement supply during longer construction are also excluded.
Method: Commissioning capital = overnight cost × mean((1+r)^(T-k-0.5), k=0…T-1). Cost = (commissioning capital × CRF(r,60) + CHF 120/kW-year) / (8.76 × 0.9) + CHF 15/MWh fuel/variable/waste allowance.
106 CHF/MWh · Illustrative future project; constant CHF assumptions
Partial generation cost for assumed CHF 10,000/kW overnight, 60 operating years and 90% utilization. Same plant and operating allowances in each case.
Partial cost under analyst assumptions; procurement requires project offers. Excludes unresolved dismantling/fund costs, full insurance terms, taxes, grid and backup. Additional site overhead and replacement supply during longer construction are also excluded.
Method: Commissioning capital = overnight cost × mean((1+r)^(T-k-0.5), k=0…T-1). Cost = (commissioning capital × CRF(r,60) + CHF 120/kW-year) / (8.76 × 0.9) + CHF 15/MWh fuel/variable/waste allowance.
117 CHF/MWh · Illustrative future project; constant CHF assumptions
Partial generation cost for assumed CHF 10,000/kW overnight, 60 operating years and 90% utilization. Same plant and operating allowances in each case.
Partial cost under analyst assumptions; procurement requires project offers. Excludes unresolved dismantling/fund costs, full insurance terms, taxes, grid and backup. Additional site overhead and replacement supply during longer construction are also excluded.
Method: Commissioning capital = overnight cost × mean((1+r)^(T-k-0.5), k=0…T-1). Cost = (commissioning capital × CRF(r,60) + CHF 120/kW-year) / (8.76 × 0.9) + CHF 15/MWh fuel/variable/waste allowance.
129 CHF/MWh · Illustrative future project; constant CHF assumptions
Partial generation cost for assumed CHF 10,000/kW overnight, 60 operating years and 90% utilization. Same plant and operating allowances in each case.
Partial cost under analyst assumptions; procurement requires project offers. Excludes unresolved dismantling/fund costs, full insurance terms, taxes, grid and backup. Additional site overhead and replacement supply during longer construction are also excluded.
Method: Commissioning capital = overnight cost × mean((1+r)^(T-k-0.5), k=0…T-1). Cost = (commissioning capital × CRF(r,60) + CHF 120/kW-year) / (8.76 × 0.9) + CHF 15/MWh fuel/variable/waste allowance.
138 CHF/MWh · Illustrative future project; constant CHF assumptions
Partial generation cost for assumed CHF 10,000/kW overnight, 60 operating years and 90% utilization. Same plant and operating allowances in each case.
Partial cost under analyst assumptions; procurement requires project offers. Excludes unresolved dismantling/fund costs, full insurance terms, taxes, grid and backup. Additional site overhead and replacement supply during longer construction are also excluded.
Method: Commissioning capital = overnight cost × mean((1+r)^(T-k-0.5), k=0…T-1). Cost = (commissioning capital × CRF(r,60) + CHF 120/kW-year) / (8.76 × 0.9) + CHF 15/MWh fuel/variable/waste allowance.
159 CHF/MWh · Illustrative future project; constant CHF assumptions
Partial generation cost for assumed CHF 10,000/kW overnight, 60 operating years and 90% utilization. Same plant and operating allowances in each case.
Partial cost under analyst assumptions; procurement requires project offers. Excludes unresolved dismantling/fund costs, full insurance terms, taxes, grid and backup. Additional site overhead and replacement supply during longer construction are also excluded.
Method: Commissioning capital = overnight cost × mean((1+r)^(T-k-0.5), k=0…T-1). Cost = (commissioning capital × CRF(r,60) + CHF 120/kW-year) / (8.76 × 0.9) + CHF 15/MWh fuel/variable/waste allowance.
187 CHF/MWh · Illustrative future project; constant CHF assumptions
Partial generation cost for assumed CHF 10,000/kW overnight, 60 operating years and 90% utilization. Same plant and operating allowances in each case.
Partial cost under analyst assumptions; procurement requires project offers. Excludes unresolved dismantling/fund costs, full insurance terms, taxes, grid and backup. Additional site overhead and replacement supply during longer construction are also excluded.
Method: Commissioning capital = overnight cost × mean((1+r)^(T-k-0.5), k=0…T-1). Cost = (commissioning capital × CRF(r,60) + CHF 120/kW-year) / (8.76 × 0.9) + CHF 15/MWh fuel/variable/waste allowance.
193 CHF/MWh · Illustrative future project; constant CHF assumptions
Partial generation cost for assumed CHF 10,000/kW overnight, 60 operating years and 90% utilization. Same plant and operating allowances in each case.
Partial cost under analyst assumptions; procurement requires project offers. Excludes unresolved dismantling/fund costs, full insurance terms, taxes, grid and backup. Additional site overhead and replacement supply during longer construction are also excluded.
Method: Commissioning capital = overnight cost × mean((1+r)^(T-k-0.5), k=0…T-1). Cost = (commissioning capital × CRF(r,60) + CHF 120/kW-year) / (8.76 × 0.9) + CHF 15/MWh fuel/variable/waste allowance.
243 CHF/MWh · Illustrative future project; constant CHF assumptions
Partial generation cost for assumed CHF 10,000/kW overnight, 60 operating years and 90% utilization. Same plant and operating allowances in each case.
Partial cost under analyst assumptions; procurement requires project offers. Excludes unresolved dismantling/fund costs, full insurance terms, taxes, grid and backup. Additional site overhead and replacement supply during longer construction are also excluded.
Method: Commissioning capital = overnight cost × mean((1+r)^(T-k-0.5), k=0…T-1). Cost = (commissioning capital × CRF(r,60) + CHF 120/kW-year) / (8.76 × 0.9) + CHF 15/MWh fuel/variable/waste allowance.
313 CHF/MWh · Illustrative future project; constant CHF assumptions
Partial generation cost for assumed CHF 10,000/kW overnight, 60 operating years and 90% utilization. Same plant and operating allowances in each case.
Partial cost under analyst assumptions; procurement requires project offers. Excludes unresolved dismantling/fund costs, full insurance terms, taxes, grid and backup. Additional site overhead and replacement supply during longer construction are also excluded.
Method: Commissioning capital = overnight cost × mean((1+r)^(T-k-0.5), k=0…T-1). Cost = (commissioning capital × CRF(r,60) + CHF 120/kW-year) / (8.76 × 0.9) + CHF 15/MWh fuel/variable/waste allowance.
2'856 CHF/MWh discharged · Assumed 15-year service; constant CHF
1 MW / 4 MWh usable AC output; CHF 1.5 million assumed purchase cost, 7% real finance, 85% round-trip efficiency and CHF 40/MWh charging electricity.
Assumed purchase cost and utilisation; project prices and income need verification. Annual 4% upkeep includes augmentation. Unpriced site/grid, tax and insurance items are excluded. Rare-use capacity and reserve value require separate estimates.
Method: LCOS = 1,500,000 × (CRF(7%,15) + 4%) / (4 × annual full cycles) + 40 / 0.85.
609 CHF/MWh discharged · Assumed 15-year service; constant CHF
1 MW / 4 MWh usable AC output; CHF 1.5 million assumed purchase cost, 7% real finance, 85% round-trip efficiency and CHF 40/MWh charging electricity.
Assumed purchase cost and utilisation; project prices and income need verification. Annual 4% upkeep includes augmentation. Unpriced site/grid, tax and insurance items are excluded. Rare-use capacity and reserve value require separate estimates.
Method: LCOS = 1,500,000 × (CRF(7%,15) + 4%) / (4 × annual full cycles) + 40 / 0.85.
272 CHF/MWh discharged · Assumed 15-year service; constant CHF
1 MW / 4 MWh usable AC output; CHF 1.5 million assumed purchase cost, 7% real finance, 85% round-trip efficiency and CHF 40/MWh charging electricity.
Assumed purchase cost and utilisation; project prices and income need verification. Annual 4% upkeep includes augmentation. Unpriced site/grid, tax and insurance items are excluded. Rare-use capacity and reserve value require separate estimates.
Method: LCOS = 1,500,000 × (CRF(7%,15) + 4%) / (4 × annual full cycles) + 40 / 0.85.
201 CHF/MWh discharged · Assumed 15-year service; constant CHF
1 MW / 4 MWh usable AC output; CHF 1.5 million assumed purchase cost, 7% real finance, 85% round-trip efficiency and CHF 40/MWh charging electricity.
Assumed purchase cost and utilisation; project prices and income need verification. Annual 4% upkeep includes augmentation. Unpriced site/grid, tax and insurance items are excluded. Rare-use capacity and reserve value require separate estimates.
Method: LCOS = 1,500,000 × (CRF(7%,15) + 4%) / (4 × annual full cycles) + 40 / 0.85.
9.5 million residents · 2050 model input
People living in Switzerland.
Analyst-selected input for the stated case. Multiple assumptions change together; actual outcomes depend on activity, adoption and equipment performance.
Method: parameters(config, 'lower_demand')['population_million'] × 1 + (0).
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
10.5 million residents · 2050 model input
People living in Switzerland.
Analyst-selected input for the stated case. Multiple assumptions change together; actual outcomes depend on activity, adoption and equipment performance.
Method: parameters(config, 'central')['population_million'] × 1 + (0).
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
11.5 million residents · 2050 model input
People living in Switzerland.
Analyst-selected input for the stated case. Multiple assumptions change together; actual outcomes depend on activity, adoption and equipment performance.
Method: parameters(config, 'higher_demand')['population_million'] × 1 + (0).
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
5 % versus 2024 · 2050 model input
Assumed change in service-sector floor area and activity, including agriculture. Expressed as an activity index rather than GDP.
Analyst-selected input for the stated case. Multiple assumptions change together; actual outcomes depend on activity, adoption and equipment performance.
Method: parameters(config, 'lower_demand')['services_activity'] × 100 + (-100).
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
25 % versus 2024 · 2050 model input
Assumed change in service-sector floor area and activity, including agriculture. Expressed as an activity index rather than GDP.
Analyst-selected input for the stated case. Multiple assumptions change together; actual outcomes depend on activity, adoption and equipment performance.
Method: parameters(config, 'central')['services_activity'] × 100 + (-100).
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
50 % versus 2024 · 2050 model input
Assumed change in service-sector floor area and activity, including agriculture. Expressed as an activity index rather than GDP.
Analyst-selected input for the stated case. Multiple assumptions change together; actual outcomes depend on activity, adoption and equipment performance.
Method: parameters(config, 'higher_demand')['services_activity'] × 100 + (-100).
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
-5 % versus 2024 · 2050 model input
Assumed change in industrial activity, expressed as an activity index rather than GDP.
Analyst-selected input for the stated case. Multiple assumptions change together; actual outcomes depend on activity, adoption and equipment performance.
Method: parameters(config, 'lower_demand')['industry_activity'] × 100 + (-100).
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
15 % versus 2024 · 2050 model input
Assumed change in industrial activity, expressed as an activity index rather than GDP.
Analyst-selected input for the stated case. Multiple assumptions change together; actual outcomes depend on activity, adoption and equipment performance.
Method: parameters(config, 'central')['industry_activity'] × 100 + (-100).
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
40 % versus 2024 · 2050 model input
Assumed change in industrial activity, expressed as an activity index rather than GDP.
Analyst-selected input for the stated case. Multiple assumptions change together; actual outcomes depend on activity, adoption and equipment performance.
Method: parameters(config, 'higher_demand')['industry_activity'] × 100 + (-100).
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
0 % versus 2024 · 2050 model input
Total distance driven by the covered road vehicles.
Analyst-selected input for the stated case. Multiple assumptions change together; actual outcomes depend on activity, adoption and equipment performance.
Method: parameters(config, 'lower_demand')['road_activity'] × 100 + (-100).
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
15 % versus 2024 · 2050 model input
Total distance driven by the covered road vehicles.
Analyst-selected input for the stated case. Multiple assumptions change together; actual outcomes depend on activity, adoption and equipment performance.
Method: parameters(config, 'central')['road_activity'] × 100 + (-100).
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
35 % versus 2024 · 2050 model input
Total distance driven by the covered road vehicles.
Analyst-selected input for the stated case. Multiple assumptions change together; actual outcomes depend on activity, adoption and equipment performance.
Method: parameters(config, 'higher_demand')['road_activity'] × 100 + (-100).
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
-25 % versus 2024 · 2050 model input
Existing service and industrial uses, excluding separately modelled building heat and cooling. New electric uses are added separately.
Analyst-selected input for the stated case. Multiple assumptions change together; actual outcomes depend on activity, adoption and equipment performance.
Method: parameters(config, 'lower_demand')['services_electric_intensity'] × 100 + (-100). Same input value verified for services_electric_intensity, industry_electric_intensity.
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
-10 % versus 2024 · 2050 model input
Existing service and industrial uses, excluding separately modelled building heat and cooling. New electric uses are added separately.
Analyst-selected input for the stated case. Multiple assumptions change together; actual outcomes depend on activity, adoption and equipment performance.
Method: parameters(config, 'central')['services_electric_intensity'] × 100 + (-100). Same input value verified for services_electric_intensity, industry_electric_intensity.
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
5 % versus 2024 · 2050 model input
Existing service and industrial uses, excluding separately modelled building heat and cooling. New electric uses are added separately.
Analyst-selected input for the stated case. Multiple assumptions change together; actual outcomes depend on activity, adoption and equipment performance.
Method: parameters(config, 'higher_demand')['services_electric_intensity'] × 100 + (-100). Same input value verified for services_electric_intensity, industry_electric_intensity.
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
-40 % versus 2024 · 2050 model input
Heat per resident in homes, or per unit of business activity. Insulation and heating controls can reduce it. Weather stays unchanged.
Analyst-selected input for the stated case. Multiple assumptions change together; actual outcomes depend on activity, adoption and equipment performance.
Method: parameters(config, 'lower_demand')['space_heat_intensity'] × 100 + (-100).
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
-25 % versus 2024 · 2050 model input
Heat per resident in homes, or per unit of business activity. Insulation and heating controls can reduce it. Weather stays unchanged.
Analyst-selected input for the stated case. Multiple assumptions change together; actual outcomes depend on activity, adoption and equipment performance.
Method: parameters(config, 'central')['space_heat_intensity'] × 100 + (-100).
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
-10 % versus 2024 · 2050 model input
Heat per resident in homes, or per unit of business activity. Insulation and heating controls can reduce it. Weather stays unchanged.
Analyst-selected input for the stated case. Multiple assumptions change together; actual outcomes depend on activity, adoption and equipment performance.
Method: parameters(config, 'higher_demand')['space_heat_intensity'] × 100 + (-100).
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
4 kWh heat / kWh electricity · 2050 model input
Heat delivered per unit of electricity over a season. A larger number means less electricity for the same heat.
Analyst-selected input for the stated case. Multiple assumptions change together; actual outcomes depend on activity, adoption and equipment performance.
Method: parameters(config, 'lower_demand')['space_heat_spf'] × 1 + (0).
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
3.3 kWh heat / kWh electricity · 2050 model input
Heat delivered per unit of electricity over a season. A larger number means less electricity for the same heat.
Analyst-selected input for the stated case. Multiple assumptions change together; actual outcomes depend on activity, adoption and equipment performance.
Method: parameters(config, 'central')['space_heat_spf'] × 1 + (0).
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
2.5 kWh heat / kWh electricity · 2050 model input
Heat delivered per unit of electricity over a season. A larger number means less electricity for the same heat.
Analyst-selected input for the stated case. Multiple assumptions change together; actual outcomes depend on activity, adoption and equipment performance.
Method: parameters(config, 'higher_demand')['space_heat_spf'] × 1 + (0).
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
15 kWh / 100 km · 2050 model input
Energy at the battery per 100 km. Charging losses are added separately.
Analyst-selected input for the stated case. Multiple assumptions change together; actual outcomes depend on activity, adoption and equipment performance.
Method: parameters(config, 'lower_demand')['cars_battery_kwh_per_km'] × 100 + (0).
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
18 kWh / 100 km · 2050 model input
Energy at the battery per 100 km. Charging losses are added separately.
Analyst-selected input for the stated case. Multiple assumptions change together; actual outcomes depend on activity, adoption and equipment performance.
Method: parameters(config, 'central')['cars_battery_kwh_per_km'] × 100 + (0).
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
23 kWh / 100 km · 2050 model input
Energy at the battery per 100 km. Charging losses are added separately.
Analyst-selected input for the stated case. Multiple assumptions change together; actual outcomes depend on activity, adoption and equipment performance.
Method: parameters(config, 'higher_demand')['cars_battery_kwh_per_km'] × 100 + (0).
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
100 % · 2050, all three demand cases
Identified household resistance heating and the modelled oil/gas/coal building-heat pool are replaced.
Assumed replacement target requiring suitable installations and adoption. Covered road modes also reach full electric replacement. Aviation and non-road conversion remain outside the model; some fuels remain in other uses.
Method: fossil_heat_conversion = resistance_conversion = 1; × 100.
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
90 % · 2050, all three demand cases
The modelled oil/gas/coal process-heat pool is converted to electricity.
Assumed replacement target requiring suitable installations and adoption. Covered road modes also reach full electric replacement. Aviation and non-road conversion remain outside the model; some fuels remain in other uses.
Method: process_fossil_conversion = 0.9; × 100.
Independent demand model v1What changes between the three demand cases
4 systems · January–April 2026
Systems from different manufacturers compared with calibrated field meters.
January–April comparison in four systems. Main heat-output channels; available compressor comparisons cover three systems. National efficiency requires a representative sample and whole-system measurements.
-34.7 % · January–April 2026
Difference between internal energy data and the calibrated field total: (internal − field) / field × 100.
January–April comparison in four systems. Main heat-output channels; available compressor comparisons cover three systems. National efficiency requires a representative sample and whole-system measurements.
0.1 % · January–April 2026
Difference between internal energy data and the calibrated field total: (internal − field) / field × 100.
January–April comparison in four systems. Main heat-output channels; available compressor comparisons cover three systems. National efficiency requires a representative sample and whole-system measurements.
-10.5 % · January–April 2026
Difference between internal energy data and the calibrated field total: (internal − field) / field × 100.
January–April comparison in four systems. Main heat-output channels; available compressor comparisons cover three systems. National efficiency requires a representative sample and whole-system measurements.
-4.6 % · January–April 2026
Difference between internal energy data and the calibrated field total: (internal − field) / field × 100.
January–April comparison in four systems. Main heat-output channels; available compressor comparisons cover three systems. National efficiency requires a representative sample and whole-system measurements.
-7.7 % · January–April 2026
Monthly internal heat total compared with calibrated field measurements for the same unit whose minute data differ by −34.7%.
One system and data stream. The alternative polynomial heat estimate for another system is outside the main-channel range.
Method: Direct transcription: table 9, PDF p.19 (printed p.18), F017 / Q_dot_H (M).
10.3 million residents · 2050 scenario input
Annual-average permanent resident population input shared by the two published workbook sheets.
BFS reference-scenario input. Electricity demand also depends on activity, equipment, efficiency and weather.
Method: Workbook BC13 = 10,306.5125 thousand; divide by 1,000 to express million residents. Both scenario sheets agree.
Energy Perspectives 2060: demographic input workbookEnergy Perspectives 2060: common assumptions
2.1 TWh · 2024
Rounded estimate of annual electricity use from the report summary.
Study scope excludes small business server rooms and micro data centers from the matched comparison. Baseline electricity already includes these users; reconcile sector growth before adding any increment.
2.5 TWh · 2030
Annual electricity use in the study scenario, on its stated data center scope.
Study scope excludes small business server rooms and micro data centers from the matched comparison. Baseline electricity already includes these users; reconcile sector growth before adding any increment.
Method: Study case reproduced directly from PDF p.3 summary.
0.4 TWh · 2024–2030
Difference from the rounded 2.1 TWh study baseline.
Approximate arithmetic using rounded summary inputs. The increment is a study comparison; its overlap with activity growth in WattInfo’s model remains to be reconciled.
Method: 2.5 − 2.1 = 0.4 TWh. No extrapolation to 2050.
Swiss data-centre electricity use and efficiency potentialDemand and field-trial evidence: selected inputs and calculations
3.2 TWh · 2030
Annual electricity use in the study scenario, on its stated data center scope.
Study scope excludes small business server rooms and micro data centers from the matched comparison. Baseline electricity already includes these users; reconcile sector growth before adding any increment.
Method: Study case reproduced directly from PDF p.3 summary.
1.1 TWh · 2024–2030
Difference from the rounded 2.1 TWh study baseline.
Approximate arithmetic using rounded summary inputs. The increment is a study comparison; its overlap with activity growth in WattInfo’s model remains to be reconciled.
Method: 3.2 − 2.1 = 1.1 TWh. No extrapolation to 2050.
Swiss data-centre electricity use and efficiency potentialDemand and field-trial evidence: selected inputs and calculations
3.5 TWh · 2030
Annual electricity use in the study scenario, on its stated data center scope.
Study scope excludes small business server rooms and micro data centers from the matched comparison. Baseline electricity already includes these users; reconcile sector growth before adding any increment.
Method: Study case reproduced directly from PDF p.3 summary.
1.4 TWh · 2024–2030
Difference from the rounded 2.1 TWh study baseline.
Approximate arithmetic using rounded summary inputs. The increment is a study comparison; its overlap with activity growth in WattInfo’s model remains to be reconciled.
Method: 3.5 − 2.1 = 1.4 TWh. No extrapolation to 2050.
Swiss data-centre electricity use and efficiency potentialDemand and field-trial evidence: selected inputs and calculations
1.4 GWh · End of 2025
Estimated installed stock across the survey’s lithium-ion, salt and other battery categories.
Solar-industry survey and retirement model. Reported stock capacity; deliverable grid energy needs usable-capacity, power, charge-state and participation data.
93'423 systems · End of 2025
Estimated system count using sales and retirement cohorts.
Solar-industry survey and retirement model. Reported stock capacity; deliverable grid energy needs usable-capacity, power, charge-state and participation data.
7.9 TWh · 2025
Annual PV production estimated from a metered sample and the fleet model.
Generation varies through the year. The growing fleet’s year-end capacity is a separate measurement basis.
Method: 7948 × 0.001 = 7.948 TWh; unit conversion from the source value.
9.5 GW · End of 2025
Estimated PV fleet capacity at the end of the reporting year.
End-year capacity differs from capacity available through the year. Use time-weighted capacity for a fleet capacity factor.
Method: 9498.6 × 0.001 = 9.4986 GW; unit conversion from the source value.
50 cars · 2021–2024 trial
Bidirectional cars in the Mobility sharing-fleet demonstration.
Demonstrated grid-service capability under trial conditions. Available vehicles, chargers and driving requirements constrain delivery.
600 CHF/vehicle/year · 2024 final report
Approximate gross potential from ancillary services in the study’s business cases.
Expected revenues fell below the additional V2X costs in the studied cases. Gross revenue still has to cover equipment, operation and other costs.
Method: Study case reproduced directly from PDF pp.3–5 executive summaries.
3 MW in either direction · 2026 final report
Approximately ±3 MW supported by the reported field tests, under the tested hydraulic conditions.
Short-term power adjustment. Duration, inflow, water levels and air-entry risks limit operation; this gives no annual generation increment.
5.7 years · 2015-05-07 to 2021-01-30
Elapsed time between the IAEA PRIS construction-start and commercial-operation dates.
Earlier planning and licensing are outside this interval. Selected examples span designs and jurisdictions, not a representative statistical sample. Olkiluoto’s operator uses a different regular-production milestone.
Method: (2021-01-30 − 2015-05-07) in calendar days / 365.25.
IAEA PRIS country units CNNuclear construction records and conditional Swiss delivery cases
8.7 years · 2012-07-19 to 2021-04-01
Elapsed time between the IAEA PRIS construction-start and commercial-operation dates.
Earlier planning and licensing are outside this interval. Selected examples span designs and jurisdictions, not a representative statistical sample. Olkiluoto’s operator uses a different regular-production milestone.
Method: (2021-04-01 − 2012-07-19) in calendar days / 365.25.
IAEA PRIS country units AENuclear construction records and conditional Swiss delivery cases
9.1 years · 2009-11-18 to 2018-12-13
Elapsed time between the IAEA PRIS construction-start and commercial-operation dates.
Earlier planning and licensing are outside this interval. Selected examples span designs and jurisdictions, not a representative statistical sample. Olkiluoto’s operator uses a different regular-production milestone.
Method: (2018-12-13 − 2009-11-18) in calendar days / 365.25.
IAEA PRIS country units CNNuclear construction records and conditional Swiss delivery cases
9.4 years · 2009-04-19 to 2018-09-21
Elapsed time between the IAEA PRIS construction-start and commercial-operation dates.
Earlier planning and licensing are outside this interval. Selected examples span designs and jurisdictions, not a representative statistical sample. Olkiluoto’s operator uses a different regular-production milestone.
Method: (2018-09-21 − 2009-04-19) in calendar days / 365.25.
IAEA PRIS country units CNNuclear construction records and conditional Swiss delivery cases
10.4 years · 2013-03-02 to 2023-07-31
Elapsed time between the IAEA PRIS construction-start and commercial-operation dates.
Earlier planning and licensing are outside this interval. Selected examples span designs and jurisdictions, not a representative statistical sample. Olkiluoto’s operator uses a different regular-production milestone.
Method: (2023-07-31 − 2013-03-02) in calendar days / 365.25.
IAEA PRIS country units USNuclear construction records and conditional Swiss delivery cases
17.7 years · 2005-08-12 to 2023-05-01
Elapsed time between the IAEA PRIS construction-start and commercial-operation dates.
Earlier planning and licensing are outside this interval. Selected examples span designs and jurisdictions, not a representative statistical sample. Olkiluoto’s operator uses a different regular-production milestone.
Method: (2023-05-01 − 2005-08-12) in calendar days / 365.25.
IAEA PRIS country units FINuclear construction records and conditional Swiss delivery cases
2042 year · Illustrative first Swiss project; preparation begins in 2026
Analyst schedule combining assumed legal availability, overlapping preparation and approvals, construction and commissioning.
A conditional first-unit case, with no assigned probability. Site approval, supplier slots, finance and legal change remain dependencies. Greater delay or cancellation is possible.
Method: 2034 first concrete + 7 years to first grid + 1 commissioning year = 2042. All durations are assumptions.
Nuclear construction records and conditional Swiss delivery cases
2047 year · Illustrative first Swiss project; preparation begins in 2026
Analyst schedule combining assumed legal availability, overlapping preparation and approvals, construction and commissioning.
A conditional first-unit case, with no assigned probability. Site approval, supplier slots, finance and legal change remain dependencies. Greater delay or cancellation is possible.
Method: 2037 first concrete + 9 years to first grid + 1 commissioning year = 2047. All durations are assumptions.
Nuclear construction records and conditional Swiss delivery cases
2053 year · Illustrative first Swiss project; preparation begins in 2026
Analyst schedule combining assumed legal availability, overlapping preparation and approvals, construction and commissioning.
A conditional first-unit case, with no assigned probability. Site approval, supplier slots, finance and legal change remain dependencies. Greater delay or cancellation is possible.
Method: 2041 first concrete + 11 years to first grid + 1 commissioning year = 2053. All durations are assumptions.
Nuclear construction records and conditional Swiss delivery cases
5.6 TWh/year · 2021–2025
Combined net output of Beznau 1 and 2, averaged over five years, including outages.
Historical annual energy sets the scale. Replacement supply must also meet winter and hourly needs; the average is not guaranteed future output.
Method: Sum the ten plant-year net-generation values in GWh; divide by five years and by 1,000.
Nuclear generation and capacity factors, 2016–2025Nuclear construction records and conditional Swiss delivery cases
2032 year · Operator intention announced December 2024
Axpo’s announced operating horizon, recorded in ENSI’s tenth national report, introduction.
An operator intention, distinct from a fixed statutory lifetime. Continued operation remains subject to safety requirements and the owner’s decision.
Method: Use the operator intention recorded by ENSI; no lifetime extrapolation.
2033 year · Operator intention announced December 2024
Axpo’s announced operating horizon, recorded in ENSI’s tenth national report, introduction.
An operator intention, distinct from a fixed statutory lifetime. Continued operation remains subject to safety requirements and the owner’s decision.
Method: Use the operator intention recorded by ENSI; no lifetime extrapolation.
2027 year · DETEC position checked 17 September 2026
DETEC expects the referendum vote in 2027 after parliamentary approval of repeal.
Expected timing and outcome remain conditional. Repeal would allow project applications; it would not approve a station.
Method: Directly reproduce DETEC’s stated expected vote year; no probability assigned.
1'450 MW electrical · 2008 applications, described in ENSI’s 2010 assessment
Proposed electrical power class. Niederamt’s two classes are alternatives for one plant. The common tolerance is recorded separately; no annual generation or capacity factor is inferred.
Historical proposal, never built under these applications. It establishes neither installed capacity nor the capacity of a future Swiss project.
Method: Direct transcription of the applicant’s proposed parameter as reported by ENSI; no output or delivery projection.
ENSI comparison of the three proposed nuclear plantsHistorical nuclear proposals: selected data and reuse assessment
1'450 MW electrical · 2008 applications, described in ENSI’s 2010 assessment
Proposed electrical power class. Niederamt’s two classes are alternatives for one plant. The common tolerance is recorded separately; no annual generation or capacity factor is inferred.
Historical proposal, never built under these applications. It establishes neither installed capacity nor the capacity of a future Swiss project.
Method: Direct transcription of the applicant’s proposed parameter as reported by ENSI; no output or delivery projection.
ENSI comparison of the three proposed nuclear plantsHistorical nuclear proposals: selected data and reuse assessment
1'100 MW electrical · 2008 applications, described in ENSI’s 2010 assessment
Proposed electrical power class. Niederamt’s two classes are alternatives for one plant. The common tolerance is recorded separately; no annual generation or capacity factor is inferred.
Historical proposal, never built under these applications. It establishes neither installed capacity nor the capacity of a future Swiss project.
Method: Direct transcription of the applicant’s proposed parameter as reported by ENSI; no output or delivery projection.
ENSI comparison of the three proposed nuclear plantsHistorical nuclear proposals: selected data and reuse assessment
1'600 MW electrical · 2008 applications, described in ENSI’s 2010 assessment
Proposed electrical power class. Niederamt’s two classes are alternatives for one plant. The common tolerance is recorded separately; no annual generation or capacity factor is inferred.
Historical proposal, never built under these applications. It establishes neither installed capacity nor the capacity of a future Swiss project.
Method: Direct transcription of the applicant’s proposed parameter as reported by ENSI; no output or delivery projection.
ENSI comparison of the three proposed nuclear plantsHistorical nuclear proposals: selected data and reuse assessment
20 % · 2008 applications, described in ENSI’s 2010 assessment
The applications permitted a deviation of plus or minus 20% from each listed electrical power class. This is a design allowance, not a statistical uncertainty interval.
Historical proposal, never built under these applications. It establishes neither installed capacity nor the capacity of a future Swiss project.
Method: Direct transcription of the applicant’s proposed parameter as reported by ENSI; no output or delivery projection.
ENSI comparison of the three proposed nuclear plantsHistorical nuclear proposals: selected data and reuse assessment
5'000 CHF2024/kW · 2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026
Overnight construction cost per unit of electrical capacity, in 2024 Swiss francs. This excludes construction financing.
A model input, distinct from a current executable Swiss project offer. Model-specific construction and operating treatment must also be considered.
Method: Direct transcription from Table 3, p6; section 2.3.3, p12; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation.
ETH–PSI: nuclear white paper modelling documentationETH–PSI study: conditions, model inputs and reading notes
8'000 CHF2024/kW · 2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026
Overnight construction cost per unit of electrical capacity, in 2024 Swiss francs. This excludes construction financing.
A model input, distinct from a current executable Swiss project offer. Model-specific construction and operating treatment must also be considered.
Method: Direct transcription from Table 3, p6; section 2.3.3, p12; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation.
ETH–PSI: nuclear white paper modelling documentationETH–PSI study: conditions, model inputs and reading notes
12'000 CHF2024/kW · 2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026
Overnight construction cost per unit of electrical capacity, in 2024 Swiss francs. This excludes construction financing.
A model input, distinct from a current executable Swiss project offer. Model-specific construction and operating treatment must also be considered.
Method: Direct transcription from Table 3, p6; section 2.3.3, p12; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation.
ETH–PSI: nuclear white paper modelling documentationETH–PSI study: conditions, model inputs and reading notes
5 % real WACC · 2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026
Weighted average cost of capital: the combined return required by debt and equity financing, above inflation.
The study associates 5% with investment de-risking such as public guarantees and 8% with private nuclear finance. Neither rate is a bankable financing offer.
Method: Direct transcription from Table 3, p7; section 2.2.2, p8; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation.
ETH–PSI: nuclear white paper modelling documentationETH–PSI study: conditions, model inputs and reading notes
8 % real WACC · 2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026
Weighted average cost of capital: the combined return required by debt and equity financing, above inflation.
The study associates 5% with investment de-risking such as public guarantees and 8% with private nuclear finance. Neither rate is a bankable financing offer.
Method: Direct transcription from Table 3, p7; section 2.2.2, p8; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation.
ETH–PSI: nuclear white paper modelling documentationETH–PSI study: conditions, model inputs and reading notes
45 TWh/year · 2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026
Hypothetical domestic generation requirement met jointly by non-hydro renewables and new nuclear in the shared-target policy family.
This is a study policy variant. The market-driven family removes the domestic-generation requirement; net-zero constraints and electricity trade remain.
Method: Direct transcription from section 2.3.2, p11; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation.
ETH–PSI: nuclear white paper modelling documentationETH–PSI study: conditions, model inputs and reading notes
2.6 GW · 2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026
Endpoint of the four-model new-nuclear capacity range with CHF2024 5,000/kW overnight cost, 5% real WACC and the shared 45 TWh/year generation target.
Only the low-cost case. Not the capacity range for the CHF2024 8,000/kW case, a statistical confidence interval or a selected reactor fleet. New operation in 2050 is assumed.
Method: Direct transcription from pp21–22, Figure 6; conclusion p27; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation.
ETH–PSI: Nuclear Power and the Future Swiss Energy SystemETH–PSI study: conditions, model inputs and reading notes
4.9 GW · 2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026
Endpoint of the four-model new-nuclear capacity range with CHF2024 5,000/kW overnight cost, 5% real WACC and the shared 45 TWh/year generation target.
Only the low-cost case. Not the capacity range for the CHF2024 8,000/kW case, a statistical confidence interval or a selected reactor fleet. New operation in 2050 is assumed.
Method: Direct transcription from pp21–22, Figure 6; conclusion p27; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation.
ETH–PSI: Nuclear Power and the Future Swiss Energy SystemETH–PSI study: conditions, model inputs and reading notes
2050 year · 2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026
New nuclear enters the study in 2050 by assumption, with existing-plant lifetime extensions excluded.
A scenario boundary rather than a demonstrated licensing or construction schedule. It does not replace WattInfo’s conditional delivery cases.
Method: Direct transcription from section 2.2.1, p10; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation.
ETH–PSI: Nuclear Power and the Future Swiss Energy SystemETH–PSI study: conditions, model inputs and reading notes
300 MW · 2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026
Minimum size within continuous capacity optimisation using generic light-water reactor assumptions.
Continuous model sizes are an approximation of discrete available plants. This input establishes neither SMR prices nor approved Swiss sites.
Method: Direct transcription from section 2.3.3, p12; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation.
ETH–PSI: nuclear white paper modelling documentationETH–PSI study: conditions, model inputs and reading notes
5 TWh/winter · 2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026
The winter net-import goal identified by the authors and explicitly excluded from all four models.
Not a model result or enforced import limit. The authors discuss absent implementation rules and effects on trading and investment decisions.
Method: Direct transcription from Table 3, p7; section 2.3.2, p11; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation.
ETH–PSI: nuclear white paper modelling documentationETH–PSI study: conditions, model inputs and reading notes
52 TWh/year · 2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026
Heat-service demand shared by SES, SES-ETH and STEM. The electricity used to supply this heat depends on the selected equipment and its efficiency.
Different model scope and demand treatment from WattInfo. Heat services must not be added directly to final electricity use. These inputs have not replaced our demand scenarios.
Method: Direct transcription from Table 3, p5, including footnotes 2 and 3; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation.
ETH–PSI: nuclear white paper modelling documentationETH–PSI study: conditions, model inputs and reading notes
9.3 TWh/year · 2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026
Heat-service demand shared by SES, SES-ETH and STEM. The electricity used to supply this heat depends on the selected equipment and its efficiency.
Different model scope and demand treatment from WattInfo. Heat services must not be added directly to final electricity use. These inputs have not replaced our demand scenarios.
Method: Direct transcription from Table 3, p5, including footnotes 2 and 3; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation.
ETH–PSI: nuclear white paper modelling documentationETH–PSI study: conditions, model inputs and reading notes
18.6 TWh/year · 2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026
Heat-service demand shared by SES, SES-ETH and STEM. The electricity used to supply this heat depends on the selected equipment and its efficiency.
Different model scope and demand treatment from WattInfo. Heat services must not be added directly to final electricity use. These inputs have not replaced our demand scenarios.
Method: Direct transcription from Table 3, p5, including footnotes 2 and 3; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation.
ETH–PSI: nuclear white paper modelling documentationETH–PSI study: conditions, model inputs and reading notes
76 TWh/year · 2050 scenario in the ETH–PSI study published 29 June 2026
Externally fixed electricity-demand input for Nexus-e, citing BFE 2020.
Different model scope and demand treatment from WattInfo. Heat services must not be added directly to final electricity use. These inputs have not replaced our demand scenarios.
Method: Direct transcription from Table 3, p5, including footnotes 2 and 3; no model rerun or Swiss supplier quotation.
ETH–PSI: nuclear white paper modelling documentationETH–PSI study: conditions, model inputs and reading notes
47.3 TWh · Reliability plan reviewed 18 September 2026
Cumulative historical-output equivalent from full years after the announced Beznau retirements to the year before first new commercial operation.
Holds 2021–2025 mean generation constant for an illustration. Excludes retirement-year partial effects, demand growth, losses and winter adequacy. Does not assume a new unit replaces the entire gap.
Method: Sum Beznau unit 2 mean from 2033 and unit 1 mean from 2034 through 2041.
Beznau replacement timeline and reserve-supply arithmeticNuclear construction records and conditional Swiss delivery cases
75.1 TWh · Reliability plan reviewed 18 September 2026
Cumulative historical-output equivalent from full years after the announced Beznau retirements to the year before first new commercial operation.
Holds 2021–2025 mean generation constant for an illustration. Excludes retirement-year partial effects, demand growth, losses and winter adequacy. Does not assume a new unit replaces the entire gap.
Method: Sum Beznau unit 2 mean from 2033 and unit 1 mean from 2034 through 2046.
Beznau replacement timeline and reserve-supply arithmeticNuclear construction records and conditional Swiss delivery cases
108.4 TWh · Reliability plan reviewed 18 September 2026
Cumulative historical-output equivalent from full years after the announced Beznau retirements to the year before first new commercial operation.
Holds 2021–2025 mean generation constant for an illustration. Excludes retirement-year partial effects, demand growth, losses and winter adequacy. Does not assume a new unit replaces the entire gap.
Method: Sum Beznau unit 2 mean from 2033 and unit 1 mean from 2034 through 2052.
Beznau replacement timeline and reserve-supply arithmeticNuclear construction records and conditional Swiss delivery cases
5.3 GW · Reliability plan reviewed 18 September 2026
Largest hourly electricity shortfall after the archived generation and storage dispatch.
Post-dispatch overlay on one hypothetical 2050 case using 2011/12 weather. All reserve power is assumed available in each shortage hour, with unlimited activation energy. Existing hydro dispatch is held fixed. No start/ramp constraints, reserve outages, fuel logistics, internal grid or redispatch; no statistical reliability or optimal reserve-size claim.
Method: Maximum hourly unserved GW across 8,784 hours.
80 hours · Reliability plan reviewed 18 September 2026
Modelled hours with unserved power above numerical tolerance.
Post-dispatch overlay on one hypothetical 2050 case using 2011/12 weather. All reserve power is assumed available in each shortage hour, with unlimited activation energy. Existing hydro dispatch is held fixed. No start/ramp constraints, reserve outages, fuel logistics, internal grid or redispatch; no statistical reliability or optimal reserve-size claim.
Method: Count hourly gaps greater than 0.000001 GW.
5.3 GW · Reliability plan reviewed 18 September 2026
The observed model peak rounded upward to 0.01 GW for the overlay.
Post-dispatch overlay on one hypothetical 2050 case using 2011/12 weather. All reserve power is assumed available in each shortage hour, with unlimited activation energy. Existing hydro dispatch is held fixed. No start/ramp constraints, reserve outages, fuel logistics, internal grid or redispatch; no statistical reliability or optimal reserve-size claim.
Method: ceil(model peak GW × 100) / 100.
41.1 hours · Reliability plan reviewed 18 September 2026
Annual reserve energy divided by assumed available reserve power. Different from hours with any operation.
Post-dispatch overlay on one hypothetical 2050 case using 2011/12 weather. All reserve power is assumed available in each shortage hour, with unlimited activation energy. Existing hydro dispatch is held fixed. No start/ramp constraints, reserve outages, fuel logistics, internal grid or redispatch; no statistical reliability or optimal reserve-size claim.
Method: 216.685430632421 GWh / 5.27 GW.
583 MW · Reliability plan reviewed 18 September 2026
Aggregate future contracted capacity described in the June 2026 proposal.
Dated proposal/contractual description. The committee suspended consideration of the main credit on 11 August 2026. Values are not current commissioned supply, final outturn or generic supplier prices.
Method: Published programme total.
Federal Council: reserve-plant financing proposal, June 2026Beznau replacement timeline and reserve-supply arithmetic
15 years · Reliability plan reviewed 18 September 2026
Proposed availability period starting around 2030, subject to project delivery.
Dated proposal/contractual description. The committee suspended consideration of the main credit on 11 August 2026. Values are not current commissioned supply, final outturn or generic supplier prices.
Method: Published contractual duration.
Federal Council: reserve-plant financing proposal, June 2026Beznau replacement timeline and reserve-supply arithmetic
1'880 CHF million · Reliability plan reviewed 18 September 2026
Aggregate construction and 15-year availability estimate before planning contingency.
Dated proposal/contractual description. The committee suspended consideration of the main credit on 11 August 2026. Values are not current commissioned supply, final outturn or generic supplier prices.
Method: Section 3.2.3 published total.
Reserve financing: cost boundaries and fuel obligationsBeznau replacement timeline and reserve-supply arithmetic
300 CHF million · Reliability plan reviewed 18 September 2026
Allowance included for specified project cost increases.
Dated proposal/contractual description. The committee suspended consideration of the main credit on 11 August 2026. Values are not current commissioned supply, final outturn or generic supplier prices.
Method: Section 3.2.3 published allowance.
Reserve financing: cost boundaries and fuel obligationsBeznau replacement timeline and reserve-supply arithmetic
2'180 CHF million · Reliability plan reviewed 18 September 2026
Construction and availability including contingency and VAT; excludes activation fuel and energy-balancing costs.
Dated proposal/contractual description. The committee suspended consideration of the main credit on 11 August 2026. Values are not current commissioned supply, final outturn or generic supplier prices.
Method: 1,880 + 300 = 2,180.
Reserve financing: cost boundaries and fuel obligationsBeznau replacement timeline and reserve-supply arithmetic
100 CHF million · Reliability plan reviewed 18 September 2026
Separate credit bringing forward project work and component payments; the message says this does not increase total costs.
Dated proposal/contractual description. The committee suspended consideration of the main credit on 11 August 2026. Values are not current commissioned supply, final outturn or generic supplier prices.
Method: Section 3.2.2 and the parliamentary record.
Reserve financing: cost boundaries and fuel obligationsBeznau replacement timeline and reserve-supply arithmetic
31 CHF million · Reliability plan reviewed 18 September 2026
Separate transition credit bringing forward work originally planned under the long-term contract, with lower subsequent conversion costs.
Dated proposal/contractual description. The committee suspended consideration of the main credit on 11 August 2026. Values are not current commissioned supply, final outturn or generic supplier prices.
Method: Section 3.2.2 and the parliamentary record.
Reserve financing: cost boundaries and fuel obligationsBeznau replacement timeline and reserve-supply arithmetic
16 days · Reliability plan reviewed 18 September 2026
Fuel-storage obligation described in the federal message.
Dated proposal/contractual description. The committee suspended consideration of the main credit on 11 August 2026. Values are not current commissioned supply, final outturn or generic supplier prices.
Method: Section 3.2.10.
Reserve financing: cost boundaries and fuel obligationsBeznau replacement timeline and reserve-supply arithmetic
10 weeks · Reliability plan reviewed 18 September 2026
Obligation to secure resupply and logistics; not ten weeks of on-site stock.
Dated proposal/contractual description. The committee suspended consideration of the main credit on 11 August 2026. Values are not current commissioned supply, final outturn or generic supplier prices.
Method: Section 3.2.10.
Reserve financing: cost boundaries and fuel obligationsBeznau replacement timeline and reserve-supply arithmetic
73.5 TWh · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Independent central sector-demand calculation at 2035, end-use electricity before grid losses and extra V2X losses, normalized to calendar 2024.
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments.
Method: model.demand.calculate(baseline, parameters, 2035, central). Weather-year totals vary.
2035 day/night supply and vehicle-flexibility modelIndependent demand model v1
26 GWp · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Solar nameplate capacity in the first replacement package.
Delivery requires sites, equipment, network access and viable owner returns; peak capacity differs from dependable night power.
Method: Explicit proposal: 26 GWp.
1.7 GWp/year · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Simple average increase from the estimated end-2025 stock to the proposed end-2035 stock.
Gross stock difference; replacements and changing annual build rates are excluded.
Method: (26 − 9.4986) / 10.
2035 day/night supply and vehicle-flexibility modelSwiss solar and associated storage statistics for 2025
2.2 GW · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Gösgen plus Leibstadt at documented net capacities, conditional on safe, viable continued operation.
Beznau follows announced retirements. No new reactor credited in 2035. Maintenance and outage assumptions reduce modelled generation.
Method: 1.010 + 1.233 = 2.243 GW net.
2035 day/night supply and vehicle-flexibility modelSwiss Electricity Statistics 2025
249'832 cars · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
BFS fleet count at 30 September 2025.
2025 observation, not a future replacement rate.
Method: Published BFS observation.
232'602 cars/year · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
BFS full-calendar-year new registrations.
2025 observation, not a future replacement rate.
Method: Published BFS observation.
22.7 % · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
New registrations; distinct from the electric share of the whole fleet.
2025 observation, not a future replacement rate.
Method: Published BFS observation.
2'100'000 cars · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Battery-electric passenger-car stock in the May 2023 charging-infrastructure study.
Conditional adoption scenario; early new-sales expectations exceeded the observed 2025 outcome. Excludes PHEVs.
Method: BFE/EBP printed page 17.
BFE / EBP: charging infrastructure and vehicle stock to 2050
1'439'084.5 cars · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Simple annual stock recurrence using 2025 registration volume and total car stock, with assumed all-BEV new sales by 2035.
Equal retirement rates, fixed total fleet and sales volume, approximate September/calendar-year boundary. Not an age-cohort forecast. Changes flexibility only; national demand held constant.
Method: BEV[t] = BEV[t−1] × (1 − 232602/4839465) + 232602 × BEV new-sales share[t]; share rises linearly from 0.227 to 1 over 2025–2035.
BFS: vehicle registrations and stock in 20252035 day/night supply and vehicle-flexibility model
210'000 cars · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
A subset of the BFE electric fleet with a compatible car, equipped home and willing owner.
All eligibility fractions are illustrative assumptions. Remaining cars continue to draw their driving electricity in fixed demand.
Method: 2,100,000 × 50% compatible × 50% equipped × 40% participating = 210,000.
147'000 cars · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Illustrative connected homes during local hours 18:00–07:59; the daytime connection fraction is 20%.
Clock window differs from astronomical day/night. Connection behaviour and trip-level readiness are unvalidated.
Method: 210,000 × 70%.
6.3 GWh · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Total battery-side window between protected 20 kWh and maximum 50 kWh per participant.
Includes disconnected cars; not all energy can reach the grid at once. Driving and conversion losses reduce exportable electricity.
Method: 210,000 × (50 − 20) kWh / 1,000,000.
1 GW · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Meter-side power ceiling for cars assumed connected at home.
Requires energy, matching equipment, connection approval, available household/network capacity and viable voluntary participation. Not firm capacity.
Method: 210,000 × 70% × 7 kW / 1,000,000.
2'555.7 GWh · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Additional supply required after the specified generation, storage, imports and vehicle service; hydrological-year weather, 2035 demand.
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments.
Method: Hourly dispatch: minimize total shortfall, then its peak; annual sum or hourly maximum.
2.3 GW · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Additional supply required after the specified generation, storage, imports and vehicle service; hydrological-year weather, 2035 demand.
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments.
Method: Hourly dispatch: minimize total shortfall, then its peak; annual sum or hourly maximum.
2'461.8 GWh · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Additional supply required after the specified generation, storage, imports and vehicle service; hydrological-year weather, 2035 demand.
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments.
Method: Hourly dispatch: minimize total shortfall, then its peak; annual sum or hourly maximum.
2.1 GW · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Additional supply required after the specified generation, storage, imports and vehicle service; hydrological-year weather, 2035 demand.
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments.
Method: Hourly dispatch: minimize total shortfall, then its peak; annual sum or hourly maximum.
2'448 GWh · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Additional supply required after the specified generation, storage, imports and vehicle service; hydrological-year weather, 2035 demand.
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments.
Method: Hourly dispatch: minimize total shortfall, then its peak; annual sum or hourly maximum.
2.1 GW · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Additional supply required after the specified generation, storage, imports and vehicle service; hydrological-year weather, 2035 demand.
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments.
Method: Hourly dispatch: minimize total shortfall, then its peak; annual sum or hourly maximum.
2'448 GWh · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Additional supply required after the specified generation, storage, imports and vehicle service; hydrological-year weather, 2035 demand.
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments.
Method: Hourly dispatch: minimize total shortfall, then its peak; annual sum or hourly maximum.
2.1 GW · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Additional supply required after the specified generation, storage, imports and vehicle service; hydrological-year weather, 2035 demand.
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments.
Method: Hourly dispatch: minimize total shortfall, then its peak; annual sum or hourly maximum.
2'306.2 GWh · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Additional supply required after the specified generation, storage, imports and vehicle service; hydrological-year weather, 2035 demand.
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments.
Method: Hourly dispatch: minimize total shortfall, then its peak; annual sum or hourly maximum.
0.7 GW · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Additional supply required after the specified generation, storage, imports and vehicle service; hydrological-year weather, 2035 demand.
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments.
Method: Hourly dispatch: minimize total shortfall, then its peak; annual sum or hourly maximum.
2'186.4 GWh · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Additional supply required after the specified generation, storage, imports and vehicle service; hydrological-year weather, 2035 demand.
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments.
Method: Hourly dispatch: minimize total shortfall, then its peak; annual sum or hourly maximum.
0.7 GW · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Additional supply required after the specified generation, storage, imports and vehicle service; hydrological-year weather, 2035 demand.
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments.
Method: Hourly dispatch: minimize total shortfall, then its peak; annual sum or hourly maximum.
2'169.5 GWh · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Additional supply required after the specified generation, storage, imports and vehicle service; hydrological-year weather, 2035 demand.
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments.
Method: Hourly dispatch: minimize total shortfall, then its peak; annual sum or hourly maximum.
0.7 GW · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Additional supply required after the specified generation, storage, imports and vehicle service; hydrological-year weather, 2035 demand.
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments.
Method: Hourly dispatch: minimize total shortfall, then its peak; annual sum or hourly maximum.
2'169.5 GWh · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Additional supply required after the specified generation, storage, imports and vehicle service; hydrological-year weather, 2035 demand.
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments.
Method: Hourly dispatch: minimize total shortfall, then its peak; annual sum or hourly maximum.
0.7 GW · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Additional supply required after the specified generation, storage, imports and vehicle service; hydrological-year weather, 2035 demand.
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments.
Method: Hourly dispatch: minimize total shortfall, then its peak; annual sum or hourly maximum.
0 GWh · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Additional supply required after the specified generation, storage, imports and vehicle service; hydrological-year weather, 2035 demand.
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments.
Method: Hourly dispatch: minimize total shortfall, then its peak; annual sum or hourly maximum.
0 GW · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Additional supply required after the specified generation, storage, imports and vehicle service; hydrological-year weather, 2035 demand.
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments.
Method: Hourly dispatch: minimize total shortfall, then its peak; annual sum or hourly maximum.
10'440.4 GWh · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Additional supply required after the specified generation, storage, imports and vehicle service; hydrological-year weather, 2035 demand.
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments.
Method: Hourly dispatch: minimize total shortfall, then its peak; annual sum or hourly maximum.
2.8 GW · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Additional supply required after the specified generation, storage, imports and vehicle service; hydrological-year weather, 2035 demand.
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments.
Method: Hourly dispatch: minimize total shortfall, then its peak; annual sum or hourly maximum.
2'212 GWh · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Additional supply required after the specified generation, storage, imports and vehicle service; hydrological-year weather, 2035 demand.
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments.
Method: Hourly dispatch: minimize total shortfall, then its peak; annual sum or hourly maximum.
0.7 GW · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Additional supply required after the specified generation, storage, imports and vehicle service; hydrological-year weather, 2035 demand.
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments.
Method: Hourly dispatch: minimize total shortfall, then its peak; annual sum or hourly maximum.
0 GWh · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Additional supply required after the specified generation, storage, imports and vehicle service; hydrological-year weather, 2035 demand.
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments.
Method: Hourly dispatch: minimize total shortfall, then its peak; annual sum or hourly maximum.
0 GW · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Additional supply required after the specified generation, storage, imports and vehicle service; hydrological-year weather, 2035 demand.
Conditional national-bus screening; perfect foresight, pooled natural hydro, monthly inflow smoothing, no internal network, probabilistic adequacy or owner-economics test. Fleet and connection assumptions are not commitments.
Method: Hourly dispatch: minimize total shortfall, then its peak; annual sum or hourly maximum.
2.5 TWh · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Largest remaining winter gap among three V2G weather cases, rounded upward to 0.1 TWh.
Preliminary market-assessment quantity, conditional on up to 2 GW imports and optimistic dispatch. No statistical reserve margin. Network, further weather/outages, fuel and contracted availability can raise the requirement.
Method: ceil(max(winter shortfall GWh) / 100) / 10.
2.2 GW · 2035 supply assessment, 18 September 2026
Largest remaining peak among three V2G weather cases, rounded upward to 0.1 GW.
Delivered available power, not equipment nameplate or final contracted capacity. Assumes up to 2 GW imports; the no-import case needs more. No statistical reserve margin.
Method: ceil(max(peak shortfall GW) × 10) / 10.
2.6 TWh · 2035 demand with 2011/12 and 2021/22 weather
Maximum remaining winter energy among the two archived fixed-charging stress cases, rounded upward to 0.1 TWh.
Preliminary supply-offer brief from two fixed-charging weather cases (2011/12 and 2021/22), 2035 demand, up to 2 GW imports and a 90-winter-day Leibstadt outage of unestimated frequency. Perfect foresight, pooled hydro, no internal grid or probabilistic reserve margin. Not routine annual replacement energy, a final procurement volume or a guarantee of adequacy. No fixed-charging 2023/24 result is available in this edition.
Method: ceil(max(2555.6857744809754, 2258.7349184467917) / 100) / 10
2035 day/night supply and vehicle-flexibility modelWattInfo proposed supply path: decisions and supporting calculations
2.3 GW · 2035 demand with 2011/12 and 2021/22 weather
Maximum remaining hourly power gap among the two archived fixed-charging stress cases, rounded upward to 0.1 GW.
Preliminary supply-offer brief from two fixed-charging weather cases (2011/12 and 2021/22), 2035 demand, up to 2 GW imports and a 90-winter-day Leibstadt outage of unestimated frequency. Perfect foresight, pooled hydro, no internal grid or probabilistic reserve margin. Not routine annual replacement energy, a final procurement volume or a guarantee of adequacy. No fixed-charging 2023/24 result is available in this edition.
Method: ceil(max(2.28209526160838, 0.7046165785531138) * 10) / 10
2035 day/night supply and vehicle-flexibility modelWattInfo proposed supply path: decisions and supporting calculations
35.9 TWh/year · 2024 observed baseline to conditional 2050 central case
Additional annual end-use electricity, before grid losses, storage charging and net exports.
Inherits the central model assumptions. Additional data center, hydrogen, e-fuel and district-heat growth beyond sector assumptions is zero; aviation conversion is excluded. Not a forecast or generation-capacity requirement.
Method: 93.36564180546513 − 57.512 = 35.85364180546513 TWh/year.
Independent demand model v1WattInfo proposed supply path: decisions and supporting calculations
47.5 GWh · April–September portion of the 2021/22 weather case, 2035 demand
Remaining annual electricity gap less its October–March winter portion.
Preliminary supply-offer brief from two fixed-charging weather cases (2011/12 and 2021/22), 2035 demand, up to 2 GW imports and a 90-winter-day Leibstadt outage of unestimated frequency. Perfect foresight, pooled hydro, no internal grid or probabilistic reserve margin. Not routine annual replacement energy, a final procurement volume or a guarantee of adequacy. No fixed-charging 2023/24 result is available in this edition. This summer gap is outside the 2.6 TWh winter quantity.
Method: 2306.1959870084297 − 2258.7349184467917 = 47.461068561638 GWh.
2035 day/night supply and vehicle-flexibility modelWattInfo proposed supply path: decisions and supporting calculations
3.8 TWh · 2035 demand; 2011/12–2023/24 weather
Largest winter gap rounded upward to 0.1 TWh.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: ceil(max(winter_shortfall_gwh) / 100) / 10 across thirteen matched long-outage cases.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
2.3 GW · 2035 demand; 2011/12–2023/24 weather
Largest hourly annual power gap rounded upward to 0.1 GW.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: ceil(max(unserved_peak_gw) × 10) / 10 across thirteen matched long-outage cases.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
4.2 TWh · 2035 package and three growth sensitivities
Largest winter requirement across thirteen base weather cases plus three data center sensitivities, rounded upward.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.The growth cases assume the study central 2030 data center total stays at 3.2 TWh through 2035, mapped to retained service demand. Only 2012, 2017 and 2022 receive the added-load test; this is a preliminary offer brief, not a full growth/weather adequacy assessment.
Method: ceil(max(screen winter_shortfall_gwh) / 100) / 10
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
2.5 GW · 2035 package and three growth sensitivities
Largest hourly requirement across the same cases, rounded upward.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.The growth cases assume the study central 2030 data center total stays at 3.2 TWh through 2035, mapped to retained service demand. Only 2012, 2017 and 2022 receive the added-load test; this is a preliminary offer brief, not a full growth/weather adequacy assessment.
Method: ceil(max(screen unserved_peak_gw) × 10) / 10
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
1 TWh/year · 2035 with 2030 central study DC total held constant
Reference-weather annual consumption; either the additional allowance or total including it, as labelled.
The precise allocation across sector/end-use/cooling components is unresolved. These are conditional mappings, not a statistical confidence interval or a calibrated central forecast. Existing small server rooms outside the study remain in the rest of demand. No further data center growth after 2030 is estimated. The 2025 test is a comparison against a newly applied official annual total, not an out-of-sample forecasting claim or validation of 2050 equipment assumptions.
Method: Extra = published DC scenario minus 2.08 × interpolated activity × interpolated retained-electricity intensity. Assign all embedded data center electricity to services or industry separately as mapping sensitivities. Retain the remainder of sector demand.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storageSwiss data-centre electricity use and efficiency potential
74.5 TWh/year · 2035 with 2030 central study DC total held constant
Reference-weather annual consumption; either the additional allowance or total including it, as labelled.
The precise allocation across sector/end-use/cooling components is unresolved. These are conditional mappings, not a statistical confidence interval or a calibrated central forecast. Existing small server rooms outside the study remain in the rest of demand. No further data center growth after 2030 is estimated. The 2025 test is a comparison against a newly applied official annual total, not an out-of-sample forecasting claim or validation of 2050 equipment assumptions.
Method: Extra = published DC scenario minus 2.08 × interpolated activity × interpolated retained-electricity intensity. Assign all embedded data center electricity to services or industry separately as mapping sensitivities. Retain the remainder of sector demand.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storageSwiss data-centre electricity use and efficiency potential
1.5 TWh · 2035 demand; thirteen historical weather years
Maximum winter requirement across the same years without the exceptional long outage.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.Routine still includes scheduled maintenance and the 98% availability allowance.
Method: max(routine winter_shortfall_gwh) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
58.1 GWh · 2035 demand; April–September portions of thirteen weather years
Maximum summer shortfall in the long-outage base cases; outside the winter supply quantity.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: max(summer_shortfall_gwh).
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
2.6 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
0.3 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
2.6 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
0.2 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
0.7 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
0 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
0.6 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
0 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
1.6 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
0 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
3.7 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
1.5 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
2.8 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
0.4 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
1.4 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
0 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
0 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
0 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
1.4 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
0 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
2.3 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
0.1 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
1.2 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
0 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
0 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
0 TWh · 2035 demand and historical hydrological-year weather
Remaining winter electricity after the specified generation, hydro and imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.
Method: sum(hourly unserved electricity in October–March) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
3 TWh · 2035 demand with 2030 study central DC total held constant
Long-outage case adds only demand beyond the already-grown embedded service baseline; extra load spread uniformly.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.All-services mapping and a flat 3.2 TWh after 2030 are assumptions, not a 2035 forecast.
Method: 2035 addition = 3.2 − 2.08 × interpolated services activity × interpolated services intensity; hourly rerun.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
10.8 TWh · 2035 demand and historical weather with zero imports
Remaining annual electricity gap with the long reactor outage and zero cross-border imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.Import limit is zero in this case. No event probability is assigned.
Method: sum(hourly unserved) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
4.2 TWh · 2035 demand with 2030 study central DC total held constant
Long-outage case adds only demand beyond the already-grown embedded service baseline; extra load spread uniformly.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.All-services mapping and a flat 3.2 TWh after 2030 are assumptions, not a 2035 forecast.
Method: 2035 addition = 3.2 − 2.08 × interpolated services activity × interpolated services intensity; hourly rerun.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
12.3 TWh · 2035 demand and historical weather with zero imports
Remaining annual electricity gap with the long reactor outage and zero cross-border imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.Import limit is zero in this case. No event probability is assigned.
Method: sum(hourly unserved) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
2.7 TWh · 2035 demand with 2030 study central DC total held constant
Long-outage case adds only demand beyond the already-grown embedded service baseline; extra load spread uniformly.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.All-services mapping and a flat 3.2 TWh after 2030 are assumptions, not a 2035 forecast.
Method: 2035 addition = 3.2 − 2.08 × interpolated services activity × interpolated services intensity; hourly rerun.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
10.9 TWh · 2035 demand and historical weather with zero imports
Remaining annual electricity gap with the long reactor outage and zero cross-border imports.
Deterministic 2035 fixed-charging scenarios with 26 GWp PV, finite pooled hydro, Gösgen/Leibstadt, scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability. Up to 2 GW imports unless specified. Perfect foresight, smoothed monthly hydro, simplified grid, optimized cyclic starting stocks. No reserve margin, probabilities, owner contracts or full national adequacy proof. The long outage removes Leibstadt for 90 winter days.Import limit is zero in this case. No event probability is assigned.
Method: sum(hourly unserved) / 1000.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
59 TWh · 2025
Existing central path evaluated at 2025, retaining 2024 annual weather assumptions.
One-year comparison; no weather or realized replacement recalibration. The original model was built after 2025.
Method: Run model.demand.calculate at year=2025 with original parameters.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
58 TWh · 2025
National final electricity, after network losses; pumping already removed from generation.
Separate from narrower survey or Swissgrid withdrawal boundaries.
Method: BFE workbook T25!H71 / 1000.
1.7 % · 2025 comparison
Relative difference of unchanged model path and official final electricity.
A close annual total does not validate 2050 end-use assumptions.
Method: (model / observed − 1) × 100.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storageSchweizerische Gesamtenergiestatistik 2025 - Tabellen
93 TWh · 2050
Original central model with only population changed to 10.3065125 million.
Other sector activity, electrification and efficiency assumptions unchanged.
Method: calculate(..., population_million=10.3065125).
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storageEnergy Perspectives 2060: demographic input workbook
-0.4 TWh · 2050
Population sensitivity minus original 93.3656 TWh reference.
Only the household population dependence represented in this model changes.
Method: population_sensitivity_2050_twh − reference_2050_twh.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storageEnergy Perspectives 2060: demographic input workbook
0.4 TWh/year · 2030; high case may arrive later
Increment above the activity-scaled national model under an all-services retained-electricity mapping.
The precise allocation across sector/end-use/cooling components is unresolved. These are conditional mappings, not a statistical confidence interval or a calibrated central forecast. Existing small server rooms outside the study remain in the rest of demand. No further data center growth after 2030 is estimated. The 2025 test is a comparison against a newly applied official annual total, not an out-of-sample forecasting claim or validation of 2050 equipment assumptions.
Method: Extra = published DC scenario minus 2.08 × interpolated activity × interpolated retained-electricity intensity. Assign all embedded data center electricity to services or industry separately as mapping sensitivities. Retain the remainder of sector demand.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storageSwiss data-centre electricity use and efficiency potential
1.1 TWh/year · 2030; high case may arrive later
Increment above the activity-scaled national model under an all-services retained-electricity mapping.
The precise allocation across sector/end-use/cooling components is unresolved. These are conditional mappings, not a statistical confidence interval or a calibrated central forecast. Existing small server rooms outside the study remain in the rest of demand. No further data center growth after 2030 is estimated. The 2025 test is a comparison against a newly applied official annual total, not an out-of-sample forecasting claim or validation of 2050 equipment assumptions.
Method: Extra = published DC scenario minus 2.08 × interpolated activity × interpolated retained-electricity intensity. Assign all embedded data center electricity to services or industry separately as mapping sensitivities. Retain the remainder of sector demand.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storageSwiss data-centre electricity use and efficiency potential
1.4 TWh/year · 2030; high case may arrive later
Increment above the activity-scaled national model under an all-services retained-electricity mapping.
The precise allocation across sector/end-use/cooling components is unresolved. These are conditional mappings, not a statistical confidence interval or a calibrated central forecast. Existing small server rooms outside the study remain in the rest of demand. No further data center growth after 2030 is estimated. The 2025 test is a comparison against a newly applied official annual total, not an out-of-sample forecasting claim or validation of 2050 equipment assumptions.
Method: Extra = published DC scenario minus 2.08 × interpolated activity × interpolated retained-electricity intensity. Assign all embedded data center electricity to services or industry separately as mapping sensitivities. Retain the remainder of sector demand.
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storageSwiss data-centre electricity use and efficiency potential
2.1 TWh/year · 2030
Matched 2.08 TWh estimate multiplied by interpolated model activity and retained-electricity intensity.
The precise allocation across sector/end-use/cooling components is unresolved. These are conditional mappings, not a statistical confidence interval or a calibrated central forecast. Existing small server rooms outside the study remain in the rest of demand. No further data center growth after 2030 is estimated. The 2025 test is a comparison against a newly applied official annual total, not an out-of-sample forecasting claim or validation of 2050 equipment assumptions.
Method: 2.08 × (1 + .25 × 6/26) × (1 − .1 × 6/26).
WattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storageSwiss data-centre electricity use and efficiency potential
3.5 TWh/year · 2030 or later
Study upper sensitivity; printed page 127 explicitly allows arrival after 2030.
Author sensitivity, not a promised commissioning or utilization date.
Method: Published conditional study total, no extrapolation.
Swiss data-centre electricity use and efficiency potentialWattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
3.3 GWh heat · 2024 heat balance; construction 2020–22 cost reported in 2025
Single district-heating store. Thermal energy or project-cost boundary as labelled.
Heat cannot be treated as deliverable electricity. Danish implementation-year costs, no Swiss quote or national savings credit. Capacity calculated from water volume and temperature window.
Method: Thermal evidence field storage_capacity_mwh_th × 0.001.
DTU Høje Taastrup measured 2024 report official repository alternateWattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
34 GWh heat · 2024 heat balance; construction 2020–22 cost reported in 2025
Single district-heating store. Thermal energy or project-cost boundary as labelled.
Heat cannot be treated as deliverable electricity. Danish implementation-year costs, no Swiss quote or national savings credit. Capacity calculated from water volume and temperature window.
Method: Thermal evidence field charge_mwh_th × 0.001.
DTU Høje Taastrup measured 2024 report official repository alternateWattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
29.9 GWh heat · 2024 heat balance; construction 2020–22 cost reported in 2025
Single district-heating store. Thermal energy or project-cost boundary as labelled.
Heat cannot be treated as deliverable electricity. Danish implementation-year costs, no Swiss quote or national savings credit. Capacity calculated from water volume and temperature window.
Method: Thermal evidence field discharge_mwh_th × 0.001.
DTU Høje Taastrup measured 2024 report official repository alternateWattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
3.6 GWh heat · 2024 heat balance; construction 2020–22 cost reported in 2025
Single district-heating store. Thermal energy or project-cost boundary as labelled.
Heat cannot be treated as deliverable electricity. Danish implementation-year costs, no Swiss quote or national savings credit. Capacity calculated from water volume and temperature window.
Method: Thermal evidence field loss_mwh_th × 0.001.
DTU Høje Taastrup measured 2024 report official repository alternateWattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
0.5 GWh heat · 2024 heat balance; construction 2020–22 cost reported in 2025
Single district-heating store. Thermal energy or project-cost boundary as labelled.
Heat cannot be treated as deliverable electricity. Danish implementation-year costs, no Swiss quote or national savings credit. Capacity calculated from water volume and temperature window.
Method: Thermal evidence field inventory_change_mwh_th × 0.001.
DTU Høje Taastrup measured 2024 report official repository alternateWattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
12 million EUR · 2024 heat balance; construction 2020–22 cost reported in 2025
Single district-heating store. Full-project amount before grants.
Heat cannot be treated as deliverable electricity. Danish implementation-year costs, no Swiss quote or national savings credit. Capacity calculated from water volume and temperature window.
Method: Thermal evidence field capex_eur_million × 1.
Danish Energy Agency thermal storage case studyWattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
1.3 million EUR · 2024 heat balance; construction 2020–22 cost reported in 2025
Single district-heating store. Thermal energy or project-cost boundary as labelled.
Heat cannot be treated as deliverable electricity. Danish implementation-year costs, no Swiss quote or national savings credit. Capacity calculated from water volume and temperature window.
Method: Thermal evidence field subsidy_eur_million × 1.
Danish Energy Agency thermal storage case studyWattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
9 months per unit · Operator programme reported 15 July 2026
Approximate duration of a major overhaul for one generating unit; work is staged across the plant.
Maintenance programme at one plant, not a uniform annual hydro-outage assumption.
Method: Operator page 1, duration bullet.
54.4 million CHF · Programme reported 15 July 2026
Reported investment for the complete staged overhaul programme, in nominal CHF.
Ongoing programme amount, not an audited final outturn, annual OPEX or replacement-power cost.
Method: Operator page 1, investment bullet.
1.5 TWh · 2035 demand; thirteen historical weather years
Maximum winter gap across thirteen routine-operation weather cases, before the separate data center allowance.
Includes 30-day scheduled maintenance and 98% other nuclear availability; excludes the additional 90-day outage. Largest tested gap, not expected annual purchases or a final contract size. Routine operation with the separate data center allowance has not been simulated. All cases allow up to 2 GW imports and fixed car charging. Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and simplified grid constraints remain. No statistical reserve margin or owner economics is established.
Method: max(routine winter_shortfall_gwh) / 1000.
WattInfo: regular winter supply, immediate backup and prolonged-outage coverWattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
4.2 TWh · 2035 package and three growth sensitivities
Largest winter gap across thirteen base long-outage cases and three added-demand cases, rounded up to 0.1 TWh.
Includes the routine deficit; do not add routine and contingency totals. An analyst-selected 90-day winter Leibstadt outage has no assigned probability. This is a stress envelope, not regular annual production or an optimized procurement quantity. All cases allow up to 2 GW imports and fixed car charging. Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and simplified grid constraints remain. No statistical reserve margin or owner economics is established.
Method: ceil(max(screen winter_shortfall_gwh) / 100) / 10
WattInfo: regular winter supply, immediate backup and prolonged-outage coverWattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
2.5 GW · 2035 package and three growth sensitivities
Largest hourly annual gap across thirteen base long-outage cases and three added-demand cases, rounded up to 0.1 GW.
An analyst-selected 90-day winter Leibstadt outage has no assigned probability. The maximum power and winter energy occur in different weather years. This hourly gap does not size fast-response reserves or establish an optimized procurement quantity. All cases allow up to 2 GW imports and fixed car charging. Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and simplified grid constraints remain. No statistical reserve margin or owner economics is established.
Method: ceil(max(screen unserved_peak_gw) × 10) / 10
WattInfo: regular winter supply, immediate backup and prolonged-outage coverWattInfo archive-to-model checks: demand, thirteen weather years and heat storage
57.8 TWh/year · 2021–2025
Calculated from the five annual final electricity consumption totals in BFE T25.
Swiss final electricity consumption, excluding network losses and pumping. Annual mean is total / five; daily and power means use the actual 1,826 days and 43,824 hours. No winter peak, hourly profile, city allocation or future demand is inferred. A magnitude comparison does not establish available supply, storage duration at a specified load or firm generation.
Method: sum(T25!H67:H71) / 5 / 1000
Swiss electricity scale: five-year consumption averagesSchweizerische Gesamtenergiestatistik 2025 - Tabellen
158.3 GWh/day · 2021–2025
Calculated from the five annual final electricity consumption totals in BFE T25.
Swiss final electricity consumption, excluding network losses and pumping. Annual mean is total / five; daily and power means use the actual 1,826 days and 43,824 hours. No winter peak, hourly profile, city allocation or future demand is inferred. A magnitude comparison does not establish available supply, storage duration at a specified load or firm generation.
Method: sum(T25!H67:H71) / sum(calendar days in 2021–2025)
Swiss electricity scale: five-year consumption averagesSchweizerische Gesamtenergiestatistik 2025 - Tabellen
6.6 GW · 2021–2025
Calculated from the five annual final electricity consumption totals in BFE T25.
Swiss final electricity consumption, excluding network losses and pumping. Annual mean is total / five; daily and power means use the actual 1,826 days and 43,824 hours. No winter peak, hourly profile, city allocation or future demand is inferred. A magnitude comparison does not establish available supply, storage duration at a specified load or firm generation.
Method: sum(T25!H67:H71) / (sum(calendar days in 2021–2025) × 24)
Swiss electricity scale: five-year consumption averagesSchweizerische Gesamtenergiestatistik 2025 - Tabellen
5 billion CHF2024 · ETH–PSI construction assumptions for 2050; illustrative 1 GW capacity
Scale illustration using the study construction input and an assumed 1 GW station.
Construction cost before financing, in 2024 money. The 1 GW size is an illustrative normalization, not a reactor selection or a Swiss construction offer.
Method: 5000 CHF2024/kW × 1 GW × 1,000,000 kW/GW / 1,000,000,000 = 5 billion CHF2024
ETH–PSI comparison: model scopes, financing and construction-price examplesETH–PSI: nuclear white paper modelling documentation
8 billion CHF2024 · ETH–PSI construction assumptions for 2050; illustrative 1 GW capacity
Scale illustration using the study construction input and an assumed 1 GW station.
Construction cost before financing, in 2024 money. The 1 GW size is an illustrative normalization, not a reactor selection or a Swiss construction offer.
Method: 8000 CHF2024/kW × 1 GW × 1,000,000 kW/GW / 1,000,000,000 = 8 billion CHF2024
ETH–PSI comparison: model scopes, financing and construction-price examplesETH–PSI: nuclear white paper modelling documentation
12 billion CHF2024 · ETH–PSI construction assumptions for 2050; illustrative 1 GW capacity
Scale illustration using the study construction input and an assumed 1 GW station.
Construction cost before financing, in 2024 money. The 1 GW size is an illustrative normalization, not a reactor selection or a Swiss construction offer.
Method: 12000 CHF2024/kW × 1 GW × 1,000,000 kW/GW / 1,000,000,000 = 12 billion CHF2024
ETH–PSI comparison: model scopes, financing and construction-price examplesETH–PSI: nuclear white paper modelling documentation
0.7 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2011/2012 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
3 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2011/2012 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
0.6 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2012/2013 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
3 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2012/2013 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
0 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2013/2014 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
1.1 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2013/2014 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
0 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2014/2015 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
1 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2014/2015 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
0 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2015/2016 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
2 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2015/2016 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
2 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2016/2017 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
4.2 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2016/2017 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
0.9 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2017/2018 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
3.3 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2017/2018 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
0 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2018/2019 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
1.8 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2018/2019 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
0 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2019/2020 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
0 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2019/2020 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
0 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2020/2021 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
1.8 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2020/2021 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
0.6 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2021/2022 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
2.7 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2021/2022 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
0 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2022/2023 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
1.6 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2022/2023 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
0 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2023/2024 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
0 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2023/2024 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
2 TWh · 2035 scenario; thirteen weather years
Largest winter shortfall across thirteen matched weather years with routine reactor operation and the data center allowance.
Conditional calculation under stated assumptions; no probability or delivery guarantee.
Method: max(winter_shortfall_gwh of 2012–2024 dc-routine cases) / 1000
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
2 TWh · Proposed procurement before Beznau retirement
Round the base routine winter maximum up for an initial offer comparison; revise for demand and delivery risk.
A starting service brief, not a contracted quantity, expected annual purchase or all-stress bound.
Method: ceil(1.9552512904960864 TWh × 10) / 10 = 2.0 TWh
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
2.9 TWh · 2050 portfolio; 2011/2012 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
7.2 GW · 2050 portfolio; 2011/2012 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: unserved_peak_gw / 1; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
3.8 TWh · 2050 portfolio; 2016/2017 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
4 GW · 2050 portfolio; 2016/2017 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: unserved_peak_gw / 1; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
2.4 TWh · 2050 portfolio; 2021/2022 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
0.9 GW · 2050 portfolio; 2021/2022 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: unserved_peak_gw / 1; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
6.4 TWh · 2050 portfolio; 2011/2012 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
8.2 GW · 2050 portfolio; 2011/2012 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: unserved_peak_gw / 1; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
7.6 TWh · 2050 portfolio; 2016/2017 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
5.1 GW · 2050 portfolio; 2016/2017 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: unserved_peak_gw / 1; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
6 TWh · 2050 portfolio; 2021/2022 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
2 GW · 2050 portfolio; 2021/2022 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: unserved_peak_gw / 1; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
10.3 TWh · 2050 portfolio; 2011/2012 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
9.4 GW · 2050 portfolio; 2011/2012 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: unserved_peak_gw / 1; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
11.6 TWh · 2050 portfolio; 2016/2017 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
6.2 GW · 2050 portfolio; 2016/2017 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: unserved_peak_gw / 1; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
10 TWh · 2050 portfolio; 2021/2022 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
3.2 GW · 2050 portfolio; 2021/2022 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: unserved_peak_gw / 1; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
6.7 TWh · 2050 portfolio; 2011/2012 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
8.3 GW · 2050 portfolio; 2011/2012 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: unserved_peak_gw / 1; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
8 TWh · 2050 portfolio; 2016/2017 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
5.1 GW · 2050 portfolio; 2016/2017 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: unserved_peak_gw / 1; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
6.5 TWh · 2050 portfolio; 2021/2022 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
2.1 GW · 2050 portfolio; 2021/2022 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: unserved_peak_gw / 1; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
1.1 TWh · 2050 portfolio; 2011/2012 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
6.1 GW · 2050 portfolio; 2011/2012 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: unserved_peak_gw / 1; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
2.1 TWh · 2050 portfolio; 2016/2017 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
2.9 GW · 2050 portfolio; 2016/2017 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: unserved_peak_gw / 1; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
0.7 TWh · 2050 portfolio; 2021/2022 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
0.4 GW · 2050 portfolio; 2021/2022 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: unserved_peak_gw / 1; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
0.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather; routine operation
Unmet winter electricity, split by solar-position daylight bins under routine reactor operation.
Conditional calculation under stated assumptions; no probability or delivery guarantee.
Method: Sum hourly shortfall in the named winter/daylight bin / 1000.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
1.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather; routine operation
Unmet winter electricity, split by solar-position daylight bins under routine reactor operation.
Conditional calculation under stated assumptions; no probability or delivery guarantee.
Method: Sum hourly shortfall in the named winter/daylight bin / 1000.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
94.2 TWh/year · 2050 scenario; reference weather
Central demand reference plus net data center addition after removing the embedded service-sector allocation.
2024 reference weather; actual case totals vary with weather. Holds the published 2030 data center scenario flat through 2050; not a new forecast.
Method: 93.36564180546513 + (3.2 - 2.34)
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
2 units · Proposed 2050 programme
Proposed planning input, conditional on permits, suppliers, financing and construction.
Conditional calculation under stated assumptions; no probability or delivery guarantee.
Method: recommended-inputs.json; delivery-timeline.json; 2050 case definitions; see method and original inputs.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
1.1 GW · Proposed 2050 programme
Proposed planning input, conditional on permits, suppliers, financing and construction.
Conditional calculation under stated assumptions; no probability or delivery guarantee.
Method: recommended-inputs.json; delivery-timeline.json; 2050 case definitions; see method and original inputs.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
2047 year · Proposed 2050 programme
Proposed planning input, conditional on permits, suppliers, financing and construction.
Conditional calculation under stated assumptions; no probability or delivery guarantee.
Method: recommended-inputs.json; delivery-timeline.json; 2050 case definitions; see method and original inputs.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
2050 year · Proposed 2050 programme
Proposed planning input, conditional on permits, suppliers, financing and construction.
Conditional calculation under stated assumptions; no probability or delivery guarantee.
Method: recommended-inputs.json; delivery-timeline.json; 2050 case definitions; see method and original inputs.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
53 GWp · Proposed 2050 programme
Proposed planning input, conditional on permits, suppliers, financing and construction.
Conditional calculation under stated assumptions; no probability or delivery guarantee.
Method: recommended-inputs.json; delivery-timeline.json; 2050 case definitions; see method and original inputs.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
8.1 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2016/2017 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
2.3 GW · 2035 portfolio; 2016/2017 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: unserved_peak_gw / 1; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
12.2 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2016/2017 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
3.3 GW · 2035 portfolio; 2016/2017 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: unserved_peak_gw / 1; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
5.5 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2016/2017 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
1.7 GW · 2035 portfolio; 2016/2017 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: unserved_peak_gw / 1; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
4.3 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2011/2012 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
4.3 GW · 2035 portfolio; 2011/2012 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: unserved_peak_gw / 1; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
6.3 TWh · 2035 portfolio; 2016/2017 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
2.1 GW · 2035 portfolio; 2016/2017 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: unserved_peak_gw / 1; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
6.7 TWh · 2050 portfolio; 2016/2017 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: winter_shortfall_gwh / 1000; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
4.8 GW · 2050 portfolio; 2016/2017 weather
Remaining supply requirement after the assumed resources are dispatched.
Perfect foresight, pooled hydro and unconstrained domestic grid. Maintenance and exceptional outages differ by case; imports capped at the stated level. Power and energy are separate service requirements.
Method: unserved_peak_gw / 1; hourly unmet electricity summed over October–March or maximum one-hour shortfall.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
115 CHF2026/MWh · 60-year illustrative owner life; constant 2026 CHF
Constant received electricity price that gives zero discounted owner cashflow under the stated expenditure, upkeep, fuel, waste and funding assumptions.
Analyst budget; no supplier offer, secured financing rate or household tariff. Uninsured accident exposure remains unpriced.
Method: Discounted owner expenditures / discounted lifetime generation; mid-year real flows valued at commercial operation.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
153 CHF2026/MWh · 60-year illustrative owner life; constant 2026 CHF
Constant received electricity price that gives zero discounted owner cashflow under the stated expenditure, upkeep, fuel, waste and funding assumptions.
Analyst budget; no supplier offer, secured financing rate or household tariff. Uninsured accident exposure remains unpriced.
Method: Discounted owner expenditures / discounted lifetime generation; mid-year real flows valued at commercial operation.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
202 CHF2026/MWh · 60-year illustrative owner life; constant 2026 CHF
Constant received electricity price that gives zero discounted owner cashflow under the stated expenditure, upkeep, fuel, waste and funding assumptions.
Analyst budget; no supplier offer, secured financing rate or household tariff. Uninsured accident exposure remains unpriced.
Method: Discounted owner expenditures / discounted lifetime generation; mid-year real flows valued at commercial operation.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
300 CHF2026/MWh · 60-year illustrative owner life; constant 2026 CHF
Constant received electricity price that gives zero discounted owner cashflow under the stated expenditure, upkeep, fuel, waste and funding assumptions.
Analyst budget; no supplier offer, secured financing rate or household tariff. Uninsured accident exposure remains unpriced.
Method: Discounted owner expenditures / discounted lifetime generation; mid-year real flows valued at commercial operation.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
22 billion CHF2026 · Construction programme; constant 2026 CHF
Two 1.1 GW units at CHF 10,000/kW overnight, with separate 5% development, 5% attributable grid and 1% initial-core allowances.
An analyst allowance before financing, not an EPC offer or total national programme budget.
Method: Sum overnight component for new_1 and new_2 / 1e9; financing excluded.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
2.4 billion CHF2026 · Construction programme; constant 2026 CHF
Two 1.1 GW units at CHF 10,000/kW overnight, with separate 5% development, 5% attributable grid and 1% initial-core allowances.
An analyst allowance before financing, not an EPC offer or total national programme budget.
Method: Sum allowances component for new_1 and new_2 / 1e9; financing excluded.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
24.4 billion CHF2026 · Construction programme; constant 2026 CHF
Two 1.1 GW units at CHF 10,000/kW overnight, with separate 5% development, 5% attributable grid and 1% initial-core allowances.
An analyst allowance before financing, not an EPC offer or total national programme budget.
Method: Sum preoperation component for new_1 and new_2 / 1e9; financing excluded.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
14.7 billion CHF2026 · Constant 2026 CHF
Vary overnight construction input while retaining separate 11% preoperation allowances.
Sensitivity endpoints, not quotes or a confidence interval. Financing excluded.
Method: 2 × 1,100,000 kW × CHF 6000/kW × 1.11 / 1e9
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
36.6 billion CHF2026 · Constant 2026 CHF
Vary overnight construction input while retaining separate 11% preoperation allowances.
Sensitivity endpoints, not quotes or a confidence interval. Financing excluded.
Method: 2 × 1,100,000 kW × CHF 15000/kW × 1.11 / 1e9
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
0.2 TWh · Proposed reserve contracts
Full-load electrical energy equivalent for 583 MW over 16 days.
Future contract requirement, not commissioned capacity or fuel physically stored today. Availability and part-load penalties excluded.
Method: 0.583 GW × 16 × 24 h / 1000
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner financeReserve financing: cost boundaries and fuel obligations
1.1 billion litres · One illustrative severe winter
Illustrative fuel volume at 40% net efficiency and 9.6 kWh per litre lower heating value.
Physical scale example, not a fuel procurement recommendation or logistics assurance; excludes losses beyond the assumed efficiency.
Method: 4.2 × 1e9 kWh / 0.4 / 9.6 kWh/litre / 1e9
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
3.7 TWh/year · 2035 fleet-energy sensitivity
Whole passenger-car electricity from BEV fleet, distance, intensity, charging losses, domestic share and an assumed PHEV term.
Fleet and driving assumptions; no national measurement. Replaces the whole car component; other road modes unchanged.
Method: BEV stock × 12,000 km × 0.18 kWh/km / 0.9 × 0.95 / 1e9 + assumed PHEV electricity.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
5.2 TWh/year · 2035 fleet-energy sensitivity
Whole passenger-car electricity from BEV fleet, distance, intensity, charging losses, domestic share and an assumed PHEV term.
Fleet and driving assumptions; no national measurement. Replaces the whole car component; other road modes unchanged.
Method: BEV stock × 12,000 km × 0.18 kWh/km / 0.9 × 0.95 / 1e9 + assumed PHEV electricity.
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
101.9 GWh · 2035 scenario; thirteen weather years
Summer electricity left unmet after the modelled resources are dispatched.
Conditional calculation under stated assumptions; no probability or delivery guarantee.
Method: max(summer_shortfall_gwh for thirteen data-center/outage cases)
WattInfo electricity programme: 66 hourly cases, delivery dates and owner finance
55 TWh · Illustrative October–March balance
Seasonal example omitting nuclear, wind, biomass and imports, with additional storage losses and curtailment set to zero.
Neither a demand forecast nor secured hydro. Positive contributions from other sources reduce the solar requirement.
Method: 55 TWh demand − 20 TWh hydro = 35 TWh solar.
20 TWh · Illustrative October–March balance
Seasonal example omitting nuclear, wind, biomass and imports, with additional storage losses and curtailment set to zero.
Neither a demand forecast nor secured hydro. Positive contributions from other sources reduce the solar requirement.
Method: 55 TWh demand − 20 TWh hydro = 35 TWh solar.
35 TWh · Illustrative October–March balance
Seasonal example omitting nuclear, wind, biomass and imports, with additional storage losses and curtailment set to zero.
Neither a demand forecast nor secured hydro. Positive contributions from other sources reduce the solar requirement.
Method: 55 TWh demand − 20 TWh hydro = 35 TWh solar.
117.9 GWp · 2050 illustration; October–March energy
Linear scaling of published 2004–2018 weather-based roof and facade portfolios.
No proof of equivalent sites at this scale or supply at every hour. Winter-oriented profile uses different site selection, not an assumed technology improvement.
Method: (55 − 20) TWh / winter kWh/kWp × 1000.
Winter solar: capacity, seasonal costs and paid storageWinterstrom Schweiz
135.8 GWp · 2050 illustration; October–March energy
Linear scaling of published 2004–2018 weather-based roof and facade portfolios.
No proof of equivalent sites at this scale or supply at every hour. Winter-oriented profile uses different site selection, not an assumed technology improvement.
Method: (55 − 20) TWh / winter kWh/kWp × 1000.
Winter solar: capacity, seasonal costs and paid storageWinterstrom Schweiz
88.4 billion CHF2025 · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Deduct end-2025 installed capacity and apply one price to every additional kWp.
Installation only, excluding VAT, finance, ageing/replacements, roof work, off-site networks and storage. All-at-one-price sensitivity, not a feasible national site mix.
Method: (120 − 9.4986) GWp × CHF 800/kWp / 1000.
Winter solar: capacity, seasonal costs and paid storageSwiss rooftop solar installation prices in 2025Swiss solar and associated storage statistics for 2025
104.4 billion CHF2025 · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Deduct end-2025 installed capacity and apply one price to every additional kWp.
Installation only, excluding VAT, finance, ageing/replacements, roof work, off-site networks and storage. All-at-one-price sensitivity, not a feasible national site mix.
Method: (140 − 9.4986) GWp × CHF 800/kWp / 1000.
Winter solar: capacity, seasonal costs and paid storageSwiss rooftop solar installation prices in 2025Swiss solar and associated storage statistics for 2025
157.8 billion CHF2025 · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Deduct end-2025 installed capacity and apply one price to every additional kWp.
Installation only, excluding VAT, finance, ageing/replacements, roof work, off-site networks and storage. All-at-one-price sensitivity, not a feasible national site mix.
Method: (120 − 9.4986) GWp × CHF 1428/kWp / 1000.
Winter solar: capacity, seasonal costs and paid storageSwiss rooftop solar installation prices in 2025Swiss solar and associated storage statistics for 2025
186.4 billion CHF2025 · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Deduct end-2025 installed capacity and apply one price to every additional kWp.
Installation only, excluding VAT, finance, ageing/replacements, roof work, off-site networks and storage. All-at-one-price sensitivity, not a feasible national site mix.
Method: (140 − 9.4986) GWp × CHF 1428/kWp / 1000.
Winter solar: capacity, seasonal costs and paid storageSwiss rooftop solar installation prices in 2025Swiss solar and associated storage statistics for 2025
211.2 billion CHF2025 · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Deduct end-2025 installed capacity and apply one price to every additional kWp.
Installation only, excluding VAT, finance, ageing/replacements, roof work, off-site networks and storage. All-at-one-price sensitivity, not a feasible national site mix.
Method: (120 − 9.4986) GWp × CHF 1911/kWp / 1000.
Winter solar: capacity, seasonal costs and paid storageSwiss rooftop solar installation prices in 2025Swiss solar and associated storage statistics for 2025
249.4 billion CHF2025 · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Deduct end-2025 installed capacity and apply one price to every additional kWp.
Installation only, excluding VAT, finance, ageing/replacements, roof work, off-site networks and storage. All-at-one-price sensitivity, not a feasible national site mix.
Method: (140 − 9.4986) GWp × CHF 1911/kWp / 1000.
Winter solar: capacity, seasonal costs and paid storageSwiss rooftop solar installation prices in 2025Swiss solar and associated storage statistics for 2025
95.7 billion CHF2025 · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Installation difference from the nuclear-inclusive programme solar assumption on the same flat-price basis.
A component difference only; the portfolios have unmatched reliability and other investments.
Method: (120 − 53) GWp × CHF 1428/kWp / 1000.
173.2 billion CHF2025 · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
An output-equivalent target with approximated inherited cohorts, separate from the nameplate cost table.
Undiscounted expenditure; no cost learning or site-mix model. Output-equivalent and nameplate targets differ.
Method: Sum gross 2026–2050 additions × CHF 1428/kWp; 30-year life, 0.5% annual degradation, uniform gross builds.
124.2 billion CHF2025 · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Installation difference from the nuclear-inclusive programme solar assumption on the same flat-price basis.
A component difference only; the portfolios have unmatched reliability and other investments.
Method: (140 − 53) GWp × CHF 1428/kWp / 1000.
203.5 billion CHF2025 · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
An output-equivalent target with approximated inherited cohorts, separate from the nameplate cost table.
Undiscounted expenditure; no cost learning or site-mix model. Output-equivalent and nameplate targets differ.
Method: Sum gross 2026–2050 additions × CHF 1428/kWp; 30-year life, 0.5% annual degradation, uniform gross builds.
302 CHF2025/MWh · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Sixty years, 5% real required return, declared upkeep and replacement; the same summer-value assumption applies to every generator.
Potential winter output assumed fully useful. Component energy price excludes hourly balancing and off-site grid. Budgets/reference inputs differ in evidence strength.
Method: (Discounted plant costs − summer effective value × discounted potential summer MWh) / discounted potential winter MWh.
166 CHF2025/MWh · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Sixty years, 5% real required return, declared upkeep and replacement; the same summer-value assumption applies to every generator.
Potential winter output assumed fully useful. Component energy price excludes hourly balancing and off-site grid. Budgets/reference inputs differ in evidence strength.
Method: (Discounted plant costs − summer effective value × discounted potential summer MWh) / discounted potential winter MWh.
386 CHF2025/MWh · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Sixty years, 5% real required return, declared upkeep and replacement; the same summer-value assumption applies to every generator.
Potential winter output assumed fully useful. Component energy price excludes hourly balancing and off-site grid. Budgets/reference inputs differ in evidence strength.
Method: (Discounted plant costs − summer effective value × discounted potential summer MWh) / discounted potential winter MWh.
250 CHF2025/MWh · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Sixty years, 5% real required return, declared upkeep and replacement; the same summer-value assumption applies to every generator.
Potential winter output assumed fully useful. Component energy price excludes hourly balancing and off-site grid. Budgets/reference inputs differ in evidence strength.
Method: (Discounted plant costs − summer effective value × discounted potential summer MWh) / discounted potential winter MWh.
651 CHF2025/MWh · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Sixty years, 5% real required return, declared upkeep and replacement; the same summer-value assumption applies to every generator.
Potential winter output assumed fully useful. Component energy price excludes hourly balancing and off-site grid. Budgets/reference inputs differ in evidence strength.
Method: (Discounted plant costs − summer effective value × discounted potential summer MWh) / discounted potential winter MWh.
515 CHF2025/MWh · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Sixty years, 5% real required return, declared upkeep and replacement; the same summer-value assumption applies to every generator.
Potential winter output assumed fully useful. Component energy price excludes hourly balancing and off-site grid. Budgets/reference inputs differ in evidence strength.
Method: (Discounted plant costs − summer effective value × discounted potential summer MWh) / discounted potential winter MWh.
482 CHF2025/MWh · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Sixty years, 5% real required return, declared upkeep and replacement; the same summer-value assumption applies to every generator.
Potential winter output assumed fully useful. Component energy price excludes hourly balancing and off-site grid. Budgets/reference inputs differ in evidence strength.
Method: (Discounted plant costs − summer effective value × discounted potential summer MWh) / discounted potential winter MWh.
416 CHF2025/MWh · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Sixty years, 5% real required return, declared upkeep and replacement; the same summer-value assumption applies to every generator.
Potential winter output assumed fully useful. Component energy price excludes hourly balancing and off-site grid. Budgets/reference inputs differ in evidence strength.
Method: (Discounted plant costs − summer effective value × discounted potential summer MWh) / discounted potential winter MWh.
782 CHF2025/MWh · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Sixty years, 5% real required return, declared upkeep and replacement; the same summer-value assumption applies to every generator.
Potential winter output assumed fully useful. Component energy price excludes hourly balancing and off-site grid. Budgets/reference inputs differ in evidence strength.
Method: (Discounted plant costs − summer effective value × discounted potential summer MWh) / discounted potential winter MWh.
707 CHF2025/MWh · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Sixty years, 5% real required return, declared upkeep and replacement; the same summer-value assumption applies to every generator.
Potential winter output assumed fully useful. Component energy price excludes hourly balancing and off-site grid. Budgets/reference inputs differ in evidence strength.
Method: (Discounted plant costs − summer effective value × discounted potential summer MWh) / discounted potential winter MWh.
216 CHF2025/MWh · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Sixty years, 5% real required return, declared upkeep and replacement; the same summer-value assumption applies to every generator.
Potential winter output assumed fully useful. Component energy price excludes hourly balancing and off-site grid. Budgets/reference inputs differ in evidence strength.
Method: (Discounted plant costs − summer effective value × discounted potential summer MWh) / discounted potential winter MWh.
175 CHF2025/MWh · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Sixty years, 5% real required return, declared upkeep and replacement; the same summer-value assumption applies to every generator.
Potential winter output assumed fully useful. Component energy price excludes hourly balancing and off-site grid. Budgets/reference inputs differ in evidence strength.
Method: (Discounted plant costs − summer effective value × discounted potential summer MWh) / discounted potential winter MWh.
173 CHF2025/MWh · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Sixty years, 5% real required return, declared upkeep and replacement; the same summer-value assumption applies to every generator.
Potential winter output assumed fully useful. Component energy price excludes hourly balancing and off-site grid. Budgets/reference inputs differ in evidence strength.
Method: (Discounted plant costs − summer effective value × discounted potential summer MWh) / discounted potential winter MWh.
148 CHF2025/MWh · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Sixty years, 5% real required return, declared upkeep and replacement; the same summer-value assumption applies to every generator.
Potential winter output assumed fully useful. Component energy price excludes hourly balancing and off-site grid. Budgets/reference inputs differ in evidence strength.
Method: (Discounted plant costs − summer effective value × discounted potential summer MWh) / discounted potential winter MWh.
45 CHF2025/MWh · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Equal seasonal recovery price under the same summer effective value, central plant assumptions and 5% real return.
Not a market forecast or an equal reliability comparison. Summer value is net of unsold output, losses and transaction costs.
Method: (PV cost/winter output − nuclear cost/winter output) / (PV summer/winter output − nuclear summer/winter output), using discounted values.
365 CHF2025/MWh · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Cost/delivery sensitivity with no summer credit; operating life and output stay unchanged.
Conditional component or seasonal calculation. Additional hourly balancing and off-site networks remain unpriced.
Method: Discounted nuclear plant costs / discounted winter generation; CHF2024 15000/kW, 15-year construction and 5% real return.
10 billion CHF2025 · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Four hours, 10 GW, 15-year life, 5% return, 300 full cycles yearly and 4% annual O&M including augmentation.
Illustrative size and procurement assumption, not a system requirement or Swiss offer. Off-site grid and construction financing excluded.
Method: 40 million kWh × installed CHF/kWh; service price = annualised capital and O&M / discharged MWh + CHF 30/MWh / 0.85.
149 CHF2025/MWh · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Four hours, 10 GW, 15-year life, 5% return, 300 full cycles yearly and 4% annual O&M including augmentation.
Illustrative size and procurement assumption, not a system requirement or Swiss offer. Off-site grid and construction financing excluded.
Method: 40 million kWh × installed CHF/kWh; service price = annualised capital and O&M / discharged MWh + CHF 30/MWh / 0.85.
20 billion CHF2025 · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Four hours, 10 GW, 15-year life, 5% return, 300 full cycles yearly and 4% annual O&M including augmentation.
Illustrative size and procurement assumption, not a system requirement or Swiss offer. Off-site grid and construction financing excluded.
Method: 40 million kWh × installed CHF/kWh; service price = annualised capital and O&M / discharged MWh + CHF 30/MWh / 0.85.
263 CHF2025/MWh · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
Four hours, 10 GW, 15-year life, 5% return, 300 full cycles yearly and 4% annual O&M including augmentation.
Illustrative size and procurement assumption, not a system requirement or Swiss offer. Off-site grid and construction financing excluded.
Method: 40 million kWh × installed CHF/kWh; service price = annualised capital and O&M / discharged MWh + CHF 30/MWh / 0.85.
108 CHF2025/MWh · Illustrative comparison; constant 2025 CHF
One extra seasonal shift yearly under the stated investment, useful life, cost and income assumptions.
Storage service including opportunity cost, not new annual generation or an unlimited national resource.
Method: CHF307m × capital-recovery factor(5%,60 years) / 240000 MWh + CHF10 upkeep + CHF30 foregone summer sale per MWh.
Winter solar: capacity, seasonal costs and paid storageKWO Grimselsee expansion
1.5 GWh · Owner report or plan reviewed 22 September 2026
Madrisa first partial-winter production; see the source locator.
Owner-reported partial plant, slightly more than 2 MW, one winter. Rounded figures; full-project generation remains a forecast.
Method: Owner release, 31 March 2026
70 million CHF · Owner report or plan reviewed 22 September 2026
Madrisa reported project budget; see the source locator.
Owner budget, not final audited expenditure.
Method: Facts & Figures
34 million CHF · Owner report or plan reviewed 22 September 2026
Grenchen reported project budget; see the source locator.
Owner budget; timing and construction conditional.
Method: Project data and facts
30 GWh/year · Owner report or plan reviewed 22 September 2026
Grenchen expected annual production; see the source locator.
Forecast before operation; approximately two-thirds expected in winter.
Method: Project data and facts
2029 year · Owner report or plan reviewed 22 September 2026
Grenchen planned operation; see the source locator.
Owner chronology reports a construction hold pending the Federal Supreme Court decision.
Method: Current project timetable
307 million CHF2025 · Owner report or plan reviewed 22 September 2026
Grimselsee enlargement budget; see the source locator.
Owner project budget, not final outturn.
Method: Project key data
1'100 kWh/kWp/year · 2024 reference weather
Assumed annual solar yield in the 2024 reference weather.
An assumed 2024-weather calibration, not measured fleet output. Future site mix, annual yield and monthly shape require calibration.
Method: hourly_model/config.json: supply.solar_reference_kwh_per_kwp
820 kWh/kW/year · 2024 observed reference sample
Representative metered yield used in the BFE production estimate; systems above 30 kVA with twelve monthly reports. Location and orientation are not separated.
BFE representative 2024 sample: systems above 30 kVA with production metering and twelve monthly reports. Location and orientation are not separated; this is not a future-site yield forecast.
Method: BFE solar statistics 2025, sections 2.3 and 5.4.1, printed pages 7 and 27.
0 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Difference from the matched 2 GW import case. Other declared inputs unchanged; existing yield and hydro assumptions retained.
Zero by construction: this is the 2 GW reference for the planned maintenance, no prolonged outage comparison.
Method: (2017-dc-routine.winter_shortfall_gwh − 2017-dc-routine.winter_shortfall_gwh) / 1000
0 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Difference from the matched 2 GW import case. Other declared inputs unchanged; existing yield and hydro assumptions retained.
Zero by construction: this is the 2 GW reference for the chosen 90-day Leibstadt outage comparison.
Method: (2017-dc-outage.winter_shortfall_gwh − 2017-dc-outage.winter_shortfall_gwh) / 1000
3.8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Difference from the matched 2 GW import case. Other declared inputs unchanged; existing yield and hydro assumptions retained.
Winter-only difference between matched 1 and 2 GW cases, using 2016/17 weather and planned maintenance, no prolonged outage. Original solar, nuclear, demand and hydro assumptions retained; no alternative-schedule range or final contract quantity.
Method: (2017-dc-import1-routine.winter_shortfall_gwh − 2017-dc-routine.winter_shortfall_gwh) / 1000
3.9 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Difference from the matched 2 GW import case. Other declared inputs unchanged; existing yield and hydro assumptions retained.
Winter-only difference between matched 1 and 2 GW cases, using 2016/17 weather and chosen 90-day Leibstadt outage. Original solar, nuclear, demand and hydro assumptions retained; no alternative-schedule range or final contract quantity.
Method: (2017-dc-import1-outage.winter_shortfall_gwh − 2017-dc-outage.winter_shortfall_gwh) / 1000
7.8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Difference from the matched 2 GW import case. Other declared inputs unchanged; existing yield and hydro assumptions retained.
Winter-only difference between matched 0 and 2 GW cases, using 2016/17 weather and planned maintenance, no prolonged outage. Original solar, nuclear, demand and hydro assumptions retained; no alternative-schedule range or final contract quantity.
Method: (2017-dc-import0-routine.winter_shortfall_gwh − 2017-dc-routine.winter_shortfall_gwh) / 1000
8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Difference from the matched 2 GW import case. Other declared inputs unchanged; existing yield and hydro assumptions retained.
Winter-only difference between matched 0 and 2 GW cases, using 2016/17 weather and chosen 90-day Leibstadt outage. Original solar, nuclear, demand and hydro assumptions retained; no alternative-schedule range or final contract quantity.
Method: (2017-dc-import0-outage.winter_shortfall_gwh − 2017-dc-outage.winter_shortfall_gwh) / 1000
4.4 TWh · October 2016–March 2017, Europe/Zurich
One GW in every model winter hour.
Constant full use of a hypothetical ceiling; not measured imports, secured supply or an alternative-optimum import volume.
Method: 1 GW × 4368 hours / 1000 = 4.368 TWh.
3.8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Four matched steps: 2→1 and 1→0 GW, with planned maintenance or a chosen prolonged outage.
A marginal gap change within saved cases, not the winter import volume. Generation and hydro inputs remain uncalibrated.
Method: min(lower-ceiling winter shortfall − higher-ceiling winter shortfall) / 1000.
266.2 kWh/kWp · 2035 scenario; 13 selected weather years
Potential October–March output per unit of assumed solar capacity, before curtailment.
Uncalibrated model input. Weather-year ranges differ from the published portfolios’ multi-year averages; no equal-site or equal-service comparison.
Method: min(sum(winter hourly solar GW) / solar GWp). Hourly intervals are one hour.
306.7 kWh/kWp · 2050 scenario; 3 selected weather years
Potential October–March output per unit of assumed solar capacity, before curtailment.
Uncalibrated model input. Weather-year ranges differ from the published portfolios’ multi-year averages; no equal-site or equal-service comparison.
Method: min(sum(winter hourly solar GW) / solar GWp). Hourly intervals are one hour.
257.8 kWh/kWp · October–March; published portfolios using 2004–2018 weather
Two modelled portfolios used in the seasonal solar illustration: ZWB and AWS.
Published modelling, not observed national production. Site mix and weather boundary differ from the hourly programme.
Method: min(ZWB 257.8, AWS 296.9), published Table 3, printed page 21.
Import reliance, winter solar inputs and forced shortagesWinterstrom Schweiz
4 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Four matched steps: 2→1 and 1→0 GW, with planned maintenance or a chosen prolonged outage.
A marginal gap change within saved cases, not the winter import volume. Generation and hydro inputs remain uncalibrated.
Method: max(lower-ceiling winter shortfall − higher-ceiling winter shortfall) / 1000.
342.9 kWh/kWp · 2035 scenario; 13 selected weather years
Potential October–March output per unit of assumed solar capacity, before curtailment.
Uncalibrated model input. Weather-year ranges differ from the published portfolios’ multi-year averages; no equal-site or equal-service comparison.
Method: max(sum(winter hourly solar GW) / solar GWp). Hourly intervals are one hour.
342.9 kWh/kWp · 2050 scenario; 3 selected weather years
Potential October–March output per unit of assumed solar capacity, before curtailment.
Uncalibrated model input. Weather-year ranges differ from the published portfolios’ multi-year averages; no equal-site or equal-service comparison.
Method: max(sum(winter hourly solar GW) / solar GWp). Hourly intervals are one hour.
296.9 kWh/kWp · October–March; published portfolios using 2004–2018 weather
Two modelled portfolios used in the seasonal solar illustration: ZWB and AWS.
Published modelling, not observed national production. Site mix and weather boundary differ from the hourly programme.
Method: max(ZWB 257.8, AWS 296.9), published Table 3, printed page 21.
Import reliance, winter solar inputs and forced shortagesWinterstrom Schweiz
1.1 TWh · 2050 fleet; 2016/17 weather; three new units, existing extensions, recorded lake start and up to 2 GW imports
Certified annual unmet-electricity lower bound when the third unit supplies every modelled maintenance hour, keeping its 98% availability allowance and all other resources unchanged.
A certified lower bound, not the optimized result of a new dispatch run. It determines neither winter timing, peak power nor owner revenue. Removing all third-unit maintenance is more generous than rescheduling it.
Method: Original feasible LP dual bound minus bus-marginal-weighted added generation, divided by 1000; maintenance-dual-comparisons.json supplies the certificate and source-case hashes.
5 winters · 2016/17–2025/26
At least this many of the ten October–March winters from 2016/17 to 2025/26 overlapped one of the five documented events.
Observed lower-bound count, not an estimated future probability. Includes planned refurbishment with extensions; no exhaustive hourly event search.
Method: Count distinct winter labels in the selected primary-source event register.
Geschäftsbericht 2016Geschäftsbericht 2017Geschäftsbericht 2018Geschäftsbericht 2021ENSI: ensi-restart-2017-readerENSI: ensi-restart-december-2017-readerENSI: ensi-restart-2018-readerENSI: ensi-annual-2017-readerGösgen restart permission after the extended shutdownNach Revision im KKW Leibstadt: ENSI genehmigt WiederanfahrenKKG hat Stromproduktion wieder aufgenommen
835.3 kWh/kWp · 2024 weather; fit years 2020–2024
Radiation proxy fitted to BFE annual fleet yields for 2020–2024.
A model calibration, not observed plant output. Annual fit does not validate hourly timing, snow, orientation or future site mix.
Method: Least-squares fit of one radiation multiplier to five published annual yields.
23.7 kWh/kWp · 2020–2024
Spread of fitted annual yields around the five BFE values.
In-sample fit error; no probability or complete forecast uncertainty is inferred.
Method: sqrt(mean((fitted yield − published yield)^2)).
48.5 kWh/kWp · 2015–2019
Root mean square difference between the unchanged solar proxy and BFE annual yields for 2015–2019.
Includes weather-proxy error, site-mix changes and statistical-method differences; does not establish a winter correction.
Method: sqrt(mean((fitted yield − published yield)^2)) over five earlier calendar years.
202.1 kWh/kWp · 2035 scenario; thirteen weather years
Potential October–March solar generation per installed GWp, before curtailment.
Calibrated proxy; different weather and sites from the published roof/facade portfolios.
Method: min(sum(winter hourly solar GW) / installed GWp).
260.4 kWh/kWp · 2035 scenario; thirteen weather years
Potential October–March solar generation per installed GWp, before curtailment.
Calibrated proxy; different weather and sites from the published roof/facade portfolios.
Method: max(sum(winter hourly solar GW) / installed GWp).
232.9 kWh/kWp · 2050 scenario; three selected weather years
Potential October–March solar generation per installed GWp, before curtailment.
Calibrated proxy; different weather and sites from the published roof/facade portfolios.
Method: min(sum(winter hourly solar GW) / installed GWp).
260.4 kWh/kWp · 2050 scenario; three selected weather years
Potential October–March solar generation per installed GWp, before curtailment.
Calibrated proxy; different weather and sites from the published roof/facade portfolios.
Method: max(sum(winter hourly solar GW) / installed GWp).
90.4 % · 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024
Selected-year production divided by nominal power times calendar hours.
Conditional operating assumption. Excludes years 2025; prolonged outages are tested separately. The Leibstadt value retains 2018 derating.
Method: Sum generation / sum(year-specific net capacity × calendar hours) × 100.
85.5 % · 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025
Selected-year production divided by nominal power times calendar hours.
Conditional operating assumption. Excludes years 2016, 2017, 2021; prolonged outages are tested separately. The Leibstadt value retains 2018 derating.
Method: Sum generation / sum(year-specific net capacity × calendar hours) × 100.
9.7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
10.7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.2 GW · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-0.5 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.6 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2.2 GW · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
4.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.6 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2.4 GW · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.6 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.2 GW · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.9 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.4 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
12.4 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
13.4 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.4 GW · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-0.5 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2.3 GW · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
4.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.6 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.5 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.6 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2.4 GW · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.9 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.3 GW · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8.2 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
11.4 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
12.4 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.2 GW · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-0.5 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2.2 GW · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
4.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.6 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-coldheat: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-coldheat: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.1 GW · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-coldheat: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8.2 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-coldheat: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-coldheat: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.9 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-outage90-coldheat: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-outage90-coldheat: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.3 GW · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-outage90-coldheat: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-outage90-coldheat: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-outage90-coldheat: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.5 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.6 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2.4 GW · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.9 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.2 GW · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8.2 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
11.5 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
12.4 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.1 GW · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-0.5 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.1 GW · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
4.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.6 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.1 GW · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8.2 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
19.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
20.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
10.3 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-2.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
15.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
16.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
9.3 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
11.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
12.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.3 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
27.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
32.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
12.4 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-1.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
23.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
26 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
11.4 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
19.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
21.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
10.4 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
14.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
16.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
9.2 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-2.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
11.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
11.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.2 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.2 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
23.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
26 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
11.4 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-2.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
19.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
21.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
10.4 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
15.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
16.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
9.4 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
9.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-3.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
0.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.2 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
11.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
12.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-3.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
0.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.2 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
10.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
11.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-3.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
0.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-coldheat: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-coldheat: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.8 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-coldheat: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-coldheat: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-coldheat: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-outage90-coldheat: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-outage90-coldheat: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.9 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-outage90-coldheat: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-outage90-coldheat: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-outage90-coldheat: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.2 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
10.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
11.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
10 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-3.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
9 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
0.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
19 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
20.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
10.3 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-2.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
15.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
16.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
9.3 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
11.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
12.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.3 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-3.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
0.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
0.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
0.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
15.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
16.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
9.2 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-2.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
11.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
12.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.2 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.2 GW · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2011/12 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2012-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
11.2 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
12.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3 GW · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-0.4 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.4 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.9 GW · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
4.2 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.5 GW · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
0.9 GW · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8.2 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.9 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: min(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
3.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: max(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
8.2 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Smallest gross winter import volume with annual unmet energy and the peak shortage held at their optimum; annual imports may change.
Conditional physical minimum. It does not establish foreign generation, cross-border rights or actual trade; annual import volume is allowed to change.
Method: Minimize sum(winter hourly imports GW) / 1000 subject to the annual unmet-energy equality and peak limit.
3.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter unmet energy in the feasible schedule that minimises gross winter imports while holding annual unmet energy and peak power shortage.
The objective holds annual, not winter, unmet energy. Its seasonal allocation may differ from the displayed reference or other equally adequate schedules.
Method: Sum(winter unmet GW) / 1000 in the saved minimum-winter-import endpoint.
13.8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
14.7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.8 GW · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-0.4 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
9.7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
10 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2.7 GW · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
4.2 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.9 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.9 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2.3 GW · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8.4 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.6 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.6 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.7 GW · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.9 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.6 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: min(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
5.6 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: max(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
8.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Smallest gross winter import volume with annual unmet energy and the peak shortage held at their optimum; annual imports may change.
Conditional physical minimum. It does not establish foreign generation, cross-border rights or actual trade; annual import volume is allowed to change.
Method: Minimize sum(winter hourly imports GW) / 1000 subject to the annual unmet-energy equality and peak limit.
5.6 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter unmet energy in the feasible schedule that minimises gross winter imports while holding annual unmet energy and peak power shortage.
The objective holds annual, not winter, unmet energy. Its seasonal allocation may differ from the displayed reference or other equally adequate schedules.
Method: Sum(winter unmet GW) / 1000 in the saved minimum-winter-import endpoint.
12.8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
13.7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.4 GW · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-0.4 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
12.8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: min(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
13 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: max(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
0 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Smallest gross winter import volume with annual unmet energy and the peak shortage held at their optimum; annual imports may change.
Conditional physical minimum. It does not establish foreign generation, cross-border rights or actual trade; annual import volume is allowed to change.
Method: Minimize sum(winter hourly imports GW) / 1000 subject to the annual unmet-energy equality and peak limit.
12.8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter unmet energy in the feasible schedule that minimises gross winter imports while holding annual unmet energy and peak power shortage.
The objective holds annual, not winter, unmet energy. Its seasonal allocation may differ from the displayed reference or other equally adequate schedules.
Method: Sum(winter unmet GW) / 1000 in the saved minimum-winter-import endpoint.
8.7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
9 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2.4 GW · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
4.2 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: min(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
8.9 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: max(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
4.2 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Smallest gross winter import volume with annual unmet energy and the peak shortage held at their optimum; annual imports may change.
Conditional physical minimum. It does not establish foreign generation, cross-border rights or actual trade; annual import volume is allowed to change.
Method: Minimize sum(winter hourly imports GW) / 1000 subject to the annual unmet-energy equality and peak limit.
8.8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter unmet energy in the feasible schedule that minimises gross winter imports while holding annual unmet energy and peak power shortage.
The objective holds annual, not winter, unmet energy. Its seasonal allocation may differ from the displayed reference or other equally adequate schedules.
Method: Sum(winter unmet GW) / 1000 in the saved minimum-winter-import endpoint.
5.9 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-coldheat: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.9 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-coldheat: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.7 GW · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-coldheat: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-coldheat: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.9 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-coldheat: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.2 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-outage90-coldheat: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.2 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-outage90-coldheat: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2.3 GW · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-outage90-coldheat: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8.4 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-outage90-coldheat: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-outage90-coldheat: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.9 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.9 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.9 GW · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8.4 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.6 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.6 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.4 GW · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.9 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.6 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: min(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
4.6 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: max(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
8.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Smallest gross winter import volume with annual unmet energy and the peak shortage held at their optimum; annual imports may change.
Conditional physical minimum. It does not establish foreign generation, cross-border rights or actual trade; annual import volume is allowed to change.
Method: Minimize sum(winter hourly imports GW) / 1000 subject to the annual unmet-energy equality and peak limit.
4.6 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter unmet energy in the feasible schedule that minimises gross winter imports while holding annual unmet energy and peak power shortage.
The objective holds annual, not winter, unmet energy. Its seasonal allocation may differ from the displayed reference or other equally adequate schedules.
Method: Sum(winter unmet GW) / 1000 in the saved minimum-winter-import endpoint.
12.8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
13.7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.4 GW · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-0.4 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
9 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2.4 GW · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
4.2 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.6 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.6 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.4 GW · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.9 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
20.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
23.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
20.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: min(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
22.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: max(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Smallest gross winter import volume with annual unmet energy and the peak shortage held at their optimum; annual imports may change.
Conditional physical minimum. It does not establish foreign generation, cross-border rights or actual trade; annual import volume is allowed to change.
Method: Minimize sum(winter hourly imports GW) / 1000 subject to the annual unmet-energy equality and peak limit.
20.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter unmet energy in the feasible schedule that minimises gross winter imports while holding annual unmet energy and peak power shortage.
The objective holds annual, not winter, unmet energy. Its seasonal allocation may differ from the displayed reference or other equally adequate schedules.
Method: Sum(winter unmet GW) / 1000 in the saved minimum-winter-import endpoint.
16.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
17.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
12.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
13.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
12.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: min(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
13.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: max(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
7.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Smallest gross winter import volume with annual unmet energy and the peak shortage held at their optimum; annual imports may change.
Conditional physical minimum. It does not establish foreign generation, cross-border rights or actual trade; annual import volume is allowed to change.
Method: Minimize sum(winter hourly imports GW) / 1000 subject to the annual unmet-energy equality and peak limit.
12.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter unmet energy in the feasible schedule that minimises gross winter imports while holding annual unmet energy and peak power shortage.
The objective holds annual, not winter, unmet energy. Its seasonal allocation may differ from the displayed reference or other equally adequate schedules.
Method: Sum(winter unmet GW) / 1000 in the saved minimum-winter-import endpoint.
28.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
37 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
9.3 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-1.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
24.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
30.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.3 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
20.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
23.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.3 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
16.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
17.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-2.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
12.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
13 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
24.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
30 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.2 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-1.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
20.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
23.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.2 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
16.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
17.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.2 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
10.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
11.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-2.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: min(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
3.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: max(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
7.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Smallest gross winter import volume with annual unmet energy and the peak shortage held at their optimum; annual imports may change.
Conditional physical minimum. It does not establish foreign generation, cross-border rights or actual trade; annual import volume is allowed to change.
Method: Minimize sum(winter hourly imports GW) / 1000 subject to the annual unmet-energy equality and peak limit.
3.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter unmet energy in the feasible schedule that minimises gross winter imports while holding annual unmet energy and peak power shortage.
The objective holds annual, not winter, unmet energy. Its seasonal allocation may differ from the displayed reference or other equally adequate schedules.
Method: Sum(winter unmet GW) / 1000 in the saved minimum-winter-import endpoint.
13 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
13.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-2.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
9.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
9.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: min(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
5.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: max(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
7.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Smallest gross winter import volume with annual unmet energy and the peak shortage held at their optimum; annual imports may change.
Conditional physical minimum. It does not establish foreign generation, cross-border rights or actual trade; annual import volume is allowed to change.
Method: Minimize sum(winter hourly imports GW) / 1000 subject to the annual unmet-energy equality and peak limit.
5.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter unmet energy in the feasible schedule that minimises gross winter imports while holding annual unmet energy and peak power shortage.
The objective holds annual, not winter, unmet energy. Its seasonal allocation may differ from the displayed reference or other equally adequate schedules.
Method: Sum(winter unmet GW) / 1000 in the saved minimum-winter-import endpoint.
12 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
12.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-2.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
12 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: min(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
12.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: max(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Smallest gross winter import volume with annual unmet energy and the peak shortage held at their optimum; annual imports may change.
Conditional physical minimum. It does not establish foreign generation, cross-border rights or actual trade; annual import volume is allowed to change.
Method: Minimize sum(winter hourly imports GW) / 1000 subject to the annual unmet-energy equality and peak limit.
12.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter unmet energy in the feasible schedule that minimises gross winter imports while holding annual unmet energy and peak power shortage.
The objective holds annual, not winter, unmet energy. Its seasonal allocation may differ from the displayed reference or other equally adequate schedules.
Method: Sum(winter unmet GW) / 1000 in the saved minimum-winter-import endpoint.
8.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: min(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
8.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: max(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
3.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Smallest gross winter import volume with annual unmet energy and the peak shortage held at their optimum; annual imports may change.
Conditional physical minimum. It does not establish foreign generation, cross-border rights or actual trade; annual import volume is allowed to change.
Method: Minimize sum(winter hourly imports GW) / 1000 subject to the annual unmet-energy equality and peak limit.
8.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter unmet energy in the feasible schedule that minimises gross winter imports while holding annual unmet energy and peak power shortage.
The objective holds annual, not winter, unmet energy. Its seasonal allocation may differ from the displayed reference or other equally adequate schedules.
Method: Sum(winter unmet GW) / 1000 in the saved minimum-winter-import endpoint.
5.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-coldheat: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-coldheat: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.5 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-coldheat: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-coldheat: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-coldheat: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-outage90-coldheat: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-outage90-coldheat: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.6 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-outage90-coldheat: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-outage90-coldheat: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-outage90-coldheat: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: min(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
4.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: max(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
7.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Smallest gross winter import volume with annual unmet energy and the peak shortage held at their optimum; annual imports may change.
Conditional physical minimum. It does not establish foreign generation, cross-border rights or actual trade; annual import volume is allowed to change.
Method: Minimize sum(winter hourly imports GW) / 1000 subject to the annual unmet-energy equality and peak limit.
4.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter unmet energy in the feasible schedule that minimises gross winter imports while holding annual unmet energy and peak power shortage.
The objective holds annual, not winter, unmet energy. Its seasonal allocation may differ from the displayed reference or other equally adequate schedules.
Method: Sum(winter unmet GW) / 1000 in the saved minimum-winter-import endpoint.
12 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
12.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.8 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-2.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.8 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.8 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
20.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
23.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
16.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
17.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
12.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
13.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.9 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: min(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
8.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: max(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Smallest gross winter import volume with annual unmet energy and the peak shortage held at their optimum; annual imports may change.
Conditional physical minimum. It does not establish foreign generation, cross-border rights or actual trade; annual import volume is allowed to change.
Method: Minimize sum(winter hourly imports GW) / 1000 subject to the annual unmet-energy equality and peak limit.
8.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter unmet energy in the feasible schedule that minimises gross winter imports while holding annual unmet energy and peak power shortage.
The objective holds annual, not winter, unmet energy. Its seasonal allocation may differ from the displayed reference or other equally adequate schedules.
Method: Sum(winter unmet GW) / 1000 in the saved minimum-winter-import endpoint.
4.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2.9 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
0.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.9 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: min(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
1.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter share of unmet electricity with annual unmet energy, peak gap and annual gross imports held at the saved optimum.
Schedule range, not a confidence interval. A seasonal share can change without changing total annual adequacy. Pumping repairs preserve the endpoint.
Method: max(sum(winter hourly unmet GW)) / 1000 under the recorded objective constraints.
7.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Smallest gross winter import volume with annual unmet energy and the peak shortage held at their optimum; annual imports may change.
Conditional physical minimum. It does not establish foreign generation, cross-border rights or actual trade; annual import volume is allowed to change.
Method: Minimize sum(winter hourly imports GW) / 1000 subject to the annual unmet-energy equality and peak limit.
1.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter unmet energy in the feasible schedule that minimises gross winter imports while holding annual unmet energy and peak power shortage.
The objective holds annual, not winter, unmet energy. Its seasonal allocation may differ from the displayed reference or other equally adequate schedules.
Method: Sum(winter unmet GW) / 1000 in the saved minimum-winter-import endpoint.
16.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
17.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-2.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
12.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
13.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2016/17 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2017-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
9.7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
12.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2.6 GW · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-0.4 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.6 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.9 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.5 GW · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
4.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.9 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.1 GW · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.6 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
0.5 GW · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
12.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
12.9 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.3 GW · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-0.4 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2.2 GW · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
4.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.2 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.7 GW · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.1 GW · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8.2 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
11.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
12.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3 GW · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-0.4 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.9 GW · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
4.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.2 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.4 GW · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
0.8 GW · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8.2 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
11.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
12.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3 GW · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-0.4 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.9 GW · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
4.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.1 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
0.8 GW · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
8.2 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.7 TWh · 2035 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2035-0new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
18.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
23.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.4 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-2.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
14.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
16.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.3 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
10.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
11.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.3 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
26.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
36.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.7 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-1.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
22.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
29.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.6 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
18.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
23.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.6 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-0new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
14.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
16.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.3 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
10.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
11 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.2 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
0.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
22.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
29.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.5 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-2.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
18.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
23.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.5 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
14.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
16.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.4 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-1new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
8.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
10.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2.8 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-3.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-free-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.8 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
0.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-free-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-free-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
0.8 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-free-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
11.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
11.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.5 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-3.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2.4 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
0.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.9 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.3 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-floor-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
10.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
10.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-3.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2.1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
0.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.5 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2-outage90: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
10.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
10.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.6 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-3.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.6 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
0.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2.6 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-lto-observed-power-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
18.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
23.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5.4 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-2.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
14.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
16.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.3 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
10.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
11.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.3 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-2new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
6.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-3.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-0.2 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
0 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
6.6 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
14.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
16.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.3 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
0 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
-2.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import0: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
10.7 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
11.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
3.3 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
3.8 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
0.9 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import1: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.1 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed during October–March.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
7.3 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Additional electricity needed over the full hydrological year.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result unserved_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
2.2 GW · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Largest hourly shortage after the assumed resources have been dispatched.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result peak_unserved_gw / 1; specification in evidence.json.
7.4 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Electricity imported during October–March, before deducting exports.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
4.5 TWh · 2050 scenario; 2021/22 weather
Winter imports minus winter exports in the selected dispatch.
Conditional hourly calculation: five-year solar fit, selected-year reactor factors, perfect foresight, pooled hydro and no internal grid constraints. Winter totals describe the saved feasible schedule; annual unmet energy is the primary minimised objective. No outage probability or reserve margin.
Method: Case 2022-2050-3new-no-lto-observed-import2: saved hourly model result winter_net_imports_gwh / 1000; specification in evidence.json.
1.8 TWh · 2035; 2011/12 weather
Winter gap with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Pooled lakes can start winter almost full and reach zero; no prolonged outage, no statistical margin. With any summer shortage the winter allocation can vary.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW in October–March / 1000.
1.8 TWh · 2035; October 2011–September 2012 weather
Full-year unmet electricity with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Annual adequacy quantity. Its seasonal allocation can vary. Pooled lakes can start nearly full and reach zero; no prolonged outage or statistical reserve margin.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW over the hydrological year / 1000.
1.7 TWh · 2035; 2012/13 weather
Winter gap with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Pooled lakes can start winter almost full and reach zero; no prolonged outage, no statistical margin. With any summer shortage the winter allocation can vary.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW in October–March / 1000.
1.8 TWh · 2035; October 2012–September 2013 weather
Full-year unmet electricity with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Annual adequacy quantity. Its seasonal allocation can vary. Pooled lakes can start nearly full and reach zero; no prolonged outage or statistical reserve margin.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW over the hydrological year / 1000.
0 TWh · 2035; 2013/14 weather
Winter gap with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Pooled lakes can start winter almost full and reach zero; no prolonged outage, no statistical margin. With any summer shortage the winter allocation can vary.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW in October–March / 1000.
0 TWh · 2035; October 2013–September 2014 weather
Full-year unmet electricity with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Annual adequacy quantity. Its seasonal allocation can vary. Pooled lakes can start nearly full and reach zero; no prolonged outage or statistical reserve margin.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW over the hydrological year / 1000.
0 TWh · 2035; 2014/15 weather
Winter gap with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Pooled lakes can start winter almost full and reach zero; no prolonged outage, no statistical margin. With any summer shortage the winter allocation can vary.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW in October–March / 1000.
0 TWh · 2035; October 2014–September 2015 weather
Full-year unmet electricity with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Annual adequacy quantity. Its seasonal allocation can vary. Pooled lakes can start nearly full and reach zero; no prolonged outage or statistical reserve margin.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW over the hydrological year / 1000.
0.8 TWh · 2035; 2015/16 weather
Winter gap with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Pooled lakes can start winter almost full and reach zero; no prolonged outage, no statistical margin. With any summer shortage the winter allocation can vary.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW in October–March / 1000.
0.8 TWh · 2035; October 2015–September 2016 weather
Full-year unmet electricity with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Annual adequacy quantity. Its seasonal allocation can vary. Pooled lakes can start nearly full and reach zero; no prolonged outage or statistical reserve margin.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW over the hydrological year / 1000.
3.1 TWh · 2035; 2016/17 weather
Winter gap with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Pooled lakes can start winter almost full and reach zero; no prolonged outage, no statistical margin. With any summer shortage the winter allocation can vary.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW in October–March / 1000.
3.1 TWh · 2035; October 2016–September 2017 weather
Full-year unmet electricity with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Annual adequacy quantity. Its seasonal allocation can vary. Pooled lakes can start nearly full and reach zero; no prolonged outage or statistical reserve margin.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW over the hydrological year / 1000.
1.9 TWh · 2035; 2017/18 weather
Winter gap with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Pooled lakes can start winter almost full and reach zero; no prolonged outage, no statistical margin. With any summer shortage the winter allocation can vary.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW in October–March / 1000.
1.9 TWh · 2035; October 2017–September 2018 weather
Full-year unmet electricity with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Annual adequacy quantity. Its seasonal allocation can vary. Pooled lakes can start nearly full and reach zero; no prolonged outage or statistical reserve margin.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW over the hydrological year / 1000.
0.6 TWh · 2035; 2018/19 weather
Winter gap with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Pooled lakes can start winter almost full and reach zero; no prolonged outage, no statistical margin. With any summer shortage the winter allocation can vary.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW in October–March / 1000.
0.6 TWh · 2035; October 2018–September 2019 weather
Full-year unmet electricity with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Annual adequacy quantity. Its seasonal allocation can vary. Pooled lakes can start nearly full and reach zero; no prolonged outage or statistical reserve margin.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW over the hydrological year / 1000.
0 TWh · 2035; 2019/20 weather
Winter gap with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Pooled lakes can start winter almost full and reach zero; no prolonged outage, no statistical margin. With any summer shortage the winter allocation can vary.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW in October–March / 1000.
0 TWh · 2035; October 2019–September 2020 weather
Full-year unmet electricity with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Annual adequacy quantity. Its seasonal allocation can vary. Pooled lakes can start nearly full and reach zero; no prolonged outage or statistical reserve margin.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW over the hydrological year / 1000.
0.5 TWh · 2035; 2020/21 weather
Winter gap with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Pooled lakes can start winter almost full and reach zero; no prolonged outage, no statistical margin. With any summer shortage the winter allocation can vary.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW in October–March / 1000.
0.6 TWh · 2035; October 2020–September 2021 weather
Full-year unmet electricity with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Annual adequacy quantity. Its seasonal allocation can vary. Pooled lakes can start nearly full and reach zero; no prolonged outage or statistical reserve margin.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW over the hydrological year / 1000.
1.6 TWh · 2035; 2021/22 weather
Winter gap with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Pooled lakes can start winter almost full and reach zero; no prolonged outage, no statistical margin. With any summer shortage the winter allocation can vary.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW in October–March / 1000.
1.7 TWh · 2035; October 2021–September 2022 weather
Full-year unmet electricity with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Annual adequacy quantity. Its seasonal allocation can vary. Pooled lakes can start nearly full and reach zero; no prolonged outage or statistical reserve margin.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW over the hydrological year / 1000.
0.4 TWh · 2035; 2022/23 weather
Winter gap with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Pooled lakes can start winter almost full and reach zero; no prolonged outage, no statistical margin. With any summer shortage the winter allocation can vary.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW in October–March / 1000.
0.4 TWh · 2035; October 2022–September 2023 weather
Full-year unmet electricity with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Annual adequacy quantity. Its seasonal allocation can vary. Pooled lakes can start nearly full and reach zero; no prolonged outage or statistical reserve margin.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW over the hydrological year / 1000.
0 TWh · 2035; 2023/24 weather
Winter gap with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Pooled lakes can start winter almost full and reach zero; no prolonged outage, no statistical margin. With any summer shortage the winter allocation can vary.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW in October–March / 1000.
0 TWh · 2035; October 2023–September 2024 weather
Full-year unmet electricity with the five-year solar fit and conditional reactor factors; free cyclic lake stocks.
Annual adequacy quantity. Its seasonal allocation can vary. Pooled lakes can start nearly full and reach zero; no prolonged outage or statistical reserve margin.
Method: Sum hourly unserved GW over the hydrological year / 1000.
8.2 TWh · 2035; 2016/17 weather, free cyclic lakes
Endpoint across alternative schedules holding annual unmet energy, peak shortage and annual gross imports at the saved optimum.
Feasible schedule range, not a confidence interval or trade forecast. Annual imports are fixed; this is not the unconstrained minimum of winter imports. Pumping repairs preserve these endpoints.
Method: min(sum(winter gross_imports) / 1000) subject to the recorded constraints.
8.2 TWh · 2035; 2016/17 weather, free cyclic lakes
Endpoint across alternative schedules holding annual unmet energy, peak shortage and annual gross imports at the saved optimum.
Feasible schedule range, not a confidence interval or trade forecast. Annual imports are fixed; this is not the unconstrained minimum of winter imports. Pumping repairs preserve these endpoints.
Method: max(sum(winter gross_imports) / 1000) subject to the recorded constraints.
7.8 TWh · 2035; 2016/17 weather, free cyclic lakes
Endpoint across alternative schedules holding annual unmet energy, peak shortage and annual gross imports at the saved optimum.
Feasible schedule range, not a confidence interval or trade forecast. Annual imports are fixed; this is not the unconstrained minimum of winter imports. Pumping repairs preserve these endpoints.
Method: min(sum(winter net_imports) / 1000) subject to the recorded constraints.
8.2 TWh · 2035; 2016/17 weather, free cyclic lakes
Endpoint across alternative schedules holding annual unmet energy, peak shortage and annual gross imports at the saved optimum.
Feasible schedule range, not a confidence interval or trade forecast. Annual imports are fixed; this is not the unconstrained minimum of winter imports. Pumping repairs preserve these endpoints.
Method: max(sum(winter net_imports) / 1000) subject to the recorded constraints.
94.1 % · 2035; October 2016–March 2017
Minimum gross imports in the reported schedule range divided by continuous use of a 2 GW connection.
Range conditional on the saved annual import total and free cyclic lakes. Import capacity does not establish available foreign supply.
Method: Range minimum TWh × 1000 / (2 GW × 4368 h) × 100.
7.4 TWh · 2050; 2016/17 weather, free cyclic lakes
Endpoint across alternative schedules holding annual unmet energy, peak shortage and annual gross imports at the saved optimum.
Feasible schedule range, not a confidence interval or trade forecast. Annual imports are fixed; this is not the unconstrained minimum of winter imports. Pumping repairs preserve these endpoints.
Method: min(sum(winter gross_imports) / 1000) subject to the recorded constraints.
7.5 TWh · 2050; 2016/17 weather, free cyclic lakes
Endpoint across alternative schedules holding annual unmet energy, peak shortage and annual gross imports at the saved optimum.
Feasible schedule range, not a confidence interval or trade forecast. Annual imports are fixed; this is not the unconstrained minimum of winter imports. Pumping repairs preserve these endpoints.
Method: max(sum(winter gross_imports) / 1000) subject to the recorded constraints.
4.8 TWh · 2050; 2016/17 weather, free cyclic lakes
Endpoint across alternative schedules holding annual unmet energy, peak shortage and annual gross imports at the saved optimum.
Feasible schedule range, not a confidence interval or trade forecast. Annual imports are fixed; this is not the unconstrained minimum of winter imports. Pumping repairs preserve these endpoints.
Method: min(sum(winter net_imports) / 1000) subject to the recorded constraints.
7.5 TWh · 2050; 2016/17 weather, free cyclic lakes
Endpoint across alternative schedules holding annual unmet energy, peak shortage and annual gross imports at the saved optimum.
Feasible schedule range, not a confidence interval or trade forecast. Annual imports are fixed; this is not the unconstrained minimum of winter imports. Pumping repairs preserve these endpoints.
Method: max(sum(winter net_imports) / 1000) subject to the recorded constraints.
85 % · 2050; October 2016–March 2017
Minimum gross imports in the reported schedule range divided by continuous use of a 2 GW connection.
Range conditional on the saved annual import total and free cyclic lakes. Import capacity does not establish available foreign supply.
Method: Range minimum TWh × 1000 / (2 GW × 4368 h) × 100.
131 CHF million · 28 September 2026 vote; status as of 29 September
CHF 100 million preparation/advance work plus CHF 31.3 million Monthey interim operation. Primary amounts paired with SDA reporting of National Council approval.
Approval by the National Council only; Council of States consideration pending in the 28 September report. Credit authorisation is neither cash spent nor operational capacity. Earlier project spending must not be counted again in complete project costs.
Nationalrat spricht Geld für Vorarbeiten für ReservekraftwerkeErdbebenvorsorge: Private und staatliche Ansätze kombinierenReserve financing: cost boundaries and fuel obligations
100 CHF million · 28 September 2026 vote; status as of 29 September
Project planning and advance services
Approval by the National Council only; Council of States consideration pending in the 28 September report. Credit authorisation is neither cash spent nor operational capacity. Earlier project spending must not be counted again in complete project costs.
Nationalrat spricht Geld für Vorarbeiten für ReservekraftwerkeErdbebenvorsorge: Private und staatliche Ansätze kombinierenReserve financing: cost boundaries and fuel obligations
31 CHF million · 28 September 2026 vote; status as of 29 September
Monthey interim reserve arrangement through 2030, turbine revision and added availability periods
Approval by the National Council only; Council of States consideration pending in the 28 September report. Credit authorisation is neither cash spent nor operational capacity. Earlier project spending must not be counted again in complete project costs.
Nationalrat spricht Geld für Vorarbeiten für ReservekraftwerkeErdbebenvorsorge: Private und staatliche Ansätze kombinierenReserve financing: cost boundaries and fuel obligations
10'000 modules · Mid-September 2026
Around 10,000 installed modules connected to the grid, as reported by EKZ.
Rounded owner count, about half the planned modules; module count is not an energy measurement.
6 MWp · Mid-September 2026
EKZ describes the connected module capacity as almost 6 MWp; 6 is the rounded comparison marker, not exact installed capacity.
Preserve the word almost. MWp is rated module power; output varies with weather and daylight.
17 GWh/year · Full commissioning targeted for autumn 2027
Owner forecast of about 17 GWh/year for the completed plant.
Forecast for the full project; not measured output from the partially connected plant.
8.4 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import0-battery40", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
5.7 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import0-battery40", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
11.5 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import0-lake240", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
8.1 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import0-lake240", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
15 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import0-no-new-pv20-battery40", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
6.9 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import0-no-new-pv20-battery40", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
10.7 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import0-pv10", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
8.1 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import0-pv10", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
11.5 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import0-reference", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
8.1 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import0-reference", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
7.1 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import0-third-summer", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
7.1 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import0-third-summer", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
7.8 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import0-winter1", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
7.1 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import0-winter1", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
1.1 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import2-battery40", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
3.1 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import2-battery40", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
6.7 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import2-dc10", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
7 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import2-dc10", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
4.3 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import2-dc5", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
6.4 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import2-dc5", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
3.5 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import2-lake240", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
6.1 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import2-lake240", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
6.7 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import2-no-new-pv20-battery40", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
4.1 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import2-no-new-pv20-battery40", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
3 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import2-pv10", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
6.1 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import2-pv10", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
3.5 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import2-reference", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
6.1 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import2-reference", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
0.2 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import2-third-summer", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
5.1 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import2-third-summer", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
0.2 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import2-winter1", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
5.1 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2012-import2-winter1", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
10 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import0-battery40", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
3.8 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import0-battery40", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
12.7 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import0-lake240", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
5 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import0-lake240", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
16.3 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import0-no-new-pv20-battery40", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
5.8 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import0-no-new-pv20-battery40", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
11.8 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import0-pv10", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
5 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import0-pv10", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
12.7 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import0-reference", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
5 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import0-reference", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
8.1 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import0-third-summer", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
3.9 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import0-third-summer", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
8.9 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import0-winter1", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
4 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import0-winter1", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
2.6 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import2-battery40", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
1.5 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import2-battery40", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
7.7 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import2-dc10", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
3.8 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import2-dc10", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
5.4 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import2-dc5", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
3.2 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import2-dc5", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
4.6 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import2-lake240", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
3 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import2-lake240", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
8.2 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import2-no-new-pv20-battery40", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
3.4 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import2-no-new-pv20-battery40", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
4.1 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import2-pv10", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
3 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import2-pv10", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
4.6 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import2-reference", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
3 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import2-reference", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
1.1 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import2-third-summer", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
1.9 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import2-third-summer", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
1.3 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import2-winter1", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
2 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2017-import2-winter1", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
7.6 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import0-battery40", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
2.3 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import0-battery40", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
10.7 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import0-lake240", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
3.1 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import0-lake240", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
13.8 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import0-no-new-pv20-battery40", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
4.1 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import0-no-new-pv20-battery40", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
9.9 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import0-pv10", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
3 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import0-pv10", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
10.7 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import0-reference", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
3.1 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import0-reference", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
6.5 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import0-third-summer", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
2 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import0-third-summer", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
7 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import0-winter1", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
2.8 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import0-winter1", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
0 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import2-battery40", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
0 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import2-battery40", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
6.1 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import2-dc10", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
1.9 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import2-dc10", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
3.9 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import2-dc5", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
1.2 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import2-dc5", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
3.1 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import2-lake240", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
1 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import2-lake240", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
5.8 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import2-no-new-pv20-battery40", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
1.8 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import2-no-new-pv20-battery40", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
2.6 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import2-pv10", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
0.8 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import2-pv10", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
3.1 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import2-reference", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
1 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import2-reference", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
0 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import2-third-summer", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
0 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import2-third-summer", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
0 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import2-winter1", "divisor": 1000, "metric": "unserved_gwh"}
0.8 GW · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Matched hourly calculation at the generation boundary. The case specification identifies demand, weather, imports and the changed resource.
A screening result, not a procurement quantity or blackout probability. Hydro is pooled, future weather is known and the internal grid is omitted.
Method: {"case": "2022-import2-winter1", "divisor": 1, "metric": "peak_unserved_gw"}
-8.1 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Exports minus imports at the same annual unmet energy, peak gap and reference annual gross imports.
Demand still remains uncovered. This range is neither an annual trade forecast nor proof of energy sovereignty.
Method: {"definition": "exports minus imports", "endpoint": "min", "weather": 2012}
11.6 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Exports minus imports at the same annual unmet energy, peak gap and reference annual gross imports.
Demand still remains uncovered. This range is neither an annual trade forecast nor proof of energy sovereignty.
Method: {"definition": "exports minus imports", "endpoint": "max", "weather": 2012}
-8.1 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Exports minus imports at the same annual unmet energy, peak gap and reference annual gross imports.
Demand still remains uncovered. This range is neither an annual trade forecast nor proof of energy sovereignty.
Method: {"definition": "exports minus imports", "endpoint": "min", "weather": 2017}
8.5 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Exports minus imports at the same annual unmet energy, peak gap and reference annual gross imports.
Demand still remains uncovered. This range is neither an annual trade forecast nor proof of energy sovereignty.
Method: {"definition": "exports minus imports", "endpoint": "max", "weather": 2017}
-7.7 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Exports minus imports at the same annual unmet energy, peak gap and reference annual gross imports.
Demand still remains uncovered. This range is neither an annual trade forecast nor proof of energy sovereignty.
Method: {"definition": "exports minus imports", "endpoint": "min", "weather": 2022}
7.4 TWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Exports minus imports at the same annual unmet energy, peak gap and reference annual gross imports.
Demand still remains uncovered. This range is neither an annual trade forecast nor proof of energy sovereignty.
Method: {"definition": "exports minus imports", "endpoint": "max", "weather": 2022}
159.4 GWh · 2050 fleet under 6–12 February 2012 weather
Demand above fixed generation plus every hydro turbine, pumped store and permitted import running at full power.
An optimistic hourly upper supply limit ignores water depletion. Actual deliverable supply may be lower. No arbitrary dispatch schedule determines these hours.
Method: {"formula": "max(0, bus demand - fixed generation - hydro turbine power - pumped discharge power - imports)", "metric": "energy"}
6.1 GW · 2050 fleet under 6–12 February 2012 weather
Demand above fixed generation plus every hydro turbine, pumped store and permitted import running at full power.
An optimistic hourly upper supply limit ignores water depletion. Actual deliverable supply may be lower. No arbitrary dispatch schedule determines these hours.
Method: {"formula": "max(0, bus demand - fixed generation - hydro turbine power - pumped discharge power - imports)", "metric": "peak"}
50 hours · 2050 fleet under 6–12 February 2012 weather
Demand above fixed generation plus every hydro turbine, pumped store and permitted import running at full power.
An optimistic hourly upper supply limit ignores water depletion. Actual deliverable supply may be lower. No arbitrary dispatch schedule determines these hours.
Method: {"formula": "max(0, bus demand - fixed generation - hydro turbine power - pumped discharge power - imports)", "metric": "hours"}
215 CHF/kW/year · Swiss reserve financing proposal, 2026
The proposed reserve construction and readiness credit divided by contracted power and 15 readiness years.
Excludes activation fuel; contingency distinguishes the endpoints. Scaling this average does not establish a bid for additional capacity.
Method: {"formula": "credit CHF / kW / years", "high_chf": 2180000000.0, "kw": 583000, "low_chf": 1880000000.0, "years": 15}
249 CHF/kW/year · Swiss reserve financing proposal, 2026
The proposed reserve construction and readiness credit divided by contracted power and 15 readiness years.
Excludes activation fuel; contingency distinguishes the endpoints. Scaling this average does not establish a bid for additional capacity.
Method: {"formula": "credit CHF / kW / years", "high_chf": 2180000000.0, "kw": 583000, "low_chf": 1880000000.0, "years": 15}
2.5 TWh · October 2016–March 2017 duration
Electrical power multiplied by all 4,368 hours in the 2016/17 winter.
Assumes continuous full output. It establishes neither fuel availability nor permission for ordinary operation.
Method: {"formula": "GW * 4368 hours / 1000 = TWh"}
4.4 TWh · October 2016–March 2017 duration
Electrical power multiplied by all 4,368 hours in the 2016/17 winter.
Assumes continuous full output. It establishes neither fuel availability nor permission for ordinary operation.
Method: {"formula": "GW * 4368 hours / 1000 = TWh"}
1.2 billion litres · 2050 demand; 2016/17 weather
Liquid fuel needed to generate the matched 2016/17-weather 2050 annual electricity gap at 40% net efficiency.
Illustrative fuel equivalence, not a procurement plan. Delivery, stock rotation, emissions and permissions remain separate.
Method: {"formula": "gap TWh * 1e9 kWh/TWh / .40 / 9.6 kWh per litre / 1e9 litres/billion"}
165 CHF/MWh · 2026 CHF assumptions
Fuel, variable upkeep and an assumed carbon charge per MWh of gas-fired electricity.
Excludes capital, readiness, upstream emissions and fuel logistics. Fuel and carbon prices are scenario assumptions.
Method: {"co2_chf_t": 100, "co2_t_per_mwh_fuel": 0.2016, "efficiency": 0.55, "formula": "65/.55 + 10 + .2016/.55*100", "fuel_chf_mwh": 65, "upkeep_chf_mwh": 10}
1.7 million tonnes CO2 · 2050 demand; 2016/17 weather
Direct combustion CO2 if gas generation supplies the matched annual electricity gap at 55% efficiency.
Excludes upstream methane and other lifecycle emissions. It does not establish which fuel or plant would supply the gap.
Method: {"formula": "gap TWh * .2016 tCO2/MWh fuel / .55 = million tonnes CO2"}
1.2 EUR billion · Law and BFE explanation checked 2 October 2026
BFE stated mandatory nuclear-damage cover, before the additional 10% for interest and legal costs.
Finite cover is distinct from unlimited operator liability. Actual private policies, federal cover and international supplements have separate conditions.
Method: {"key": "nuclear-insurance", "source": "review-nuclear-liability", "value": 1.2}
35 TWh · Energy Act, edition effective 1 January 2026
Energy Act Article 2 target for average domestic annual renewable generation excluding hydro in 2035.
Annual production target; it does not itself guarantee hourly supply or set the solar share.
Method: {"key": "renewables-2035", "source": "review-energy-act", "value": 35}
5 TWh · Energy Act, edition effective 1 January 2026
Energy Act Article 2 winter net-import guide value for October through March.
Net imports subtract exports; gross import reliance and hourly access remain separate. A guide value is not an absolute border limit.
Method: {"key": "winter-import-guide", "source": "review-energy-act", "value": 5}
24 GWh/year · BFE survey, 13 June 2025, Table 5
Added annual generation from surveyed upgrades to existing large hydro plants, grouped by reported profitability.
Surveyed subset, not national potential or winter delivery. A profitable estimate does not establish construction or final investment approval.
Method: {"key": "hydro-profit-no-support", "source": "review-hydro-profitability", "value": 24}
792 GWh/year · BFE survey, 13 June 2025, Table 5
Added annual generation from surveyed upgrades to existing large hydro plants, grouped by reported profitability.
Surveyed subset, not national potential or winter delivery. A profitable estimate does not establish construction or final investment approval.
Method: {"key": "hydro-profit-support", "source": "review-hydro-profitability", "value": 792}
431 GWh/year · BFE survey, 13 June 2025, Table 5
Added annual generation from surveyed upgrades to existing large hydro plants, grouped by reported profitability.
Surveyed subset, not national potential or winter delivery. A profitable estimate does not establish construction or final investment approval.
Method: {"key": "hydro-profit-neither", "source": "review-hydro-profitability", "value": 431}
37.5 GWp · EP2050+ ZERO Basis, 2050 scenario
Published EP2050+ ZERO Basis solar capacity or approximate winter net-import result.
Scenario boundaries and demand differ from the WattInfo programme. The federal study is being updated.
Method: {"key": "ep-pv", "source": "review-bfe-10323", "value": 37.5}
9 TWh · EP2050+ ZERO Basis, 2050 scenario
Published EP2050+ ZERO Basis solar capacity or approximate winter net-import result.
Scenario boundaries and demand differ from the WattInfo programme. The federal study is being updated.
Method: {"key": "ep-winter-imports", "source": "review-bfe-10641", "value": 9}
50 GWp · Swissolar proposal published 2022; horizon 2050
Swissolar proposed solar installed capacity for 2050.
An industry proposal, not a legislated capacity target or a verified complete supply plan.
Method: {"key": "swissolar-pv", "source": "review-swissolar-50gw-2022", "value": 50}
50 Gigawatt Photovoltaik bis 2050 – welche Anlagen braucht es?
35 GBP2015 billion · EDF 2025 consolidated accounts, published February 2026
EDF completion-cost estimate in the stated original currency and 2015 price year.
Hinkley covers two units; Flamanville covers one. Finance and project boundaries differ from Swiss overnight-cost assumptions.
Method: {"key": "hinkley-cost", "source": "review-edf-costs", "value": 35}
13.2 EUR2015 billion · EDF 2025 consolidated accounts, published February 2026
EDF’s EUR 13.2 billion completion estimate in 2015 prices covers construction. Broader owner and financing costs require separate totals.
Construction-cost boundary, not the complete financed investment. Hinkley covers two units; Flamanville covers one. Keep currency, price year and scope explicit.
Method: {"key": "flamanville-cost", "source": "review-edf-costs", "value": 13.2}
10 CHF2026/MWh · 2026 CHF; analyst sensitivity
Additional geological-disposal charge assumed per generated MWh in the owner-cost sensitivity.
No project-specific fund assessment is available. This assumed contribution does not establish the complete liability.
Method: {"key": "disposal-extra", "source": "review-scale-finance", "value": 10}
9.4 GW · Swissgrid 2024 metered-load observations
Maximum hourly mean of Swissgrid metered end-user load in the 2024 archive.
This metering boundary excludes grid losses and pumping and is not the future model generation boundary. It does not validate future cold-weather heating peaks.
Method: {"key": "observed-hourly-peak", "source": "review-scale-finance", "value": 9.401333994875001}
27 TWh · 2035 fleet; selected historical weather years
Solar plus the entire mixed other-generation category, optimistically counted as renewable.
The other category also contains non-renewable generation. This screen cannot establish statutory compliance; it shows that the tested fleet falls short even on generous counting.
Method: {"mixed_other_gwh": 3697.54, "solar_gwh": 23270.5959819539, "weather": 2012}
Matched electricity, peak-power and trade comparisonsEnergy Act
27.5 TWh · 2035 fleet; selected historical weather years
Solar plus the entire mixed other-generation category, optimistically counted as renewable.
The other category also contains non-renewable generation. This screen cannot establish statutory compliance; it shows that the tested fleet falls short even on generous counting.
Method: {"mixed_other_gwh": 3697.54, "solar_gwh": 23779.92042022594, "weather": 2017}
Matched electricity, peak-power and trade comparisonsEnergy Act
29.1 TWh · 2035 fleet; selected historical weather years
Solar plus the entire mixed other-generation category, optimistically counted as renewable.
The other category also contains non-renewable generation. This screen cannot establish statutory compliance; it shows that the tested fleet falls short even on generous counting.
Method: {"mixed_other_gwh": 3697.54, "solar_gwh": 25419.951721238736, "weather": 2022}
Matched electricity, peak-power and trade comparisonsEnergy Act
192 CHF2026/MWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Original owner break-even plus an assumed CHF 10 per generated MWh for geological disposal, divided by the fraction of generated output earning revenue.
Costs are held unchanged when sales fall. This is a sensitivity, not a predicted curtailment allocation, market price or statutory disposal assessment.
Method: {"additional_disposal": 10, "capacity_factor": 0.7, "original_break_even": 182.2543028209942, "saleable_fraction": 1}
256 CHF2026/MWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Original owner break-even plus an assumed CHF 10 per generated MWh for geological disposal, divided by the fraction of generated output earning revenue.
Costs are held unchanged when sales fall. This is a sensitivity, not a predicted curtailment allocation, market price or statutory disposal assessment.
Method: {"additional_disposal": 10, "capacity_factor": 0.7, "original_break_even": 182.2543028209942, "saleable_fraction": 0.75}
163 CHF2026/MWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Original owner break-even plus an assumed CHF 10 per generated MWh for geological disposal, divided by the fraction of generated output earning revenue.
Costs are held unchanged when sales fall. This is a sensitivity, not a predicted curtailment allocation, market price or statutory disposal assessment.
Method: {"additional_disposal": 10, "capacity_factor": 0.85, "original_break_even": 152.73883761728933, "saleable_fraction": 1}
217 CHF2026/MWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Original owner break-even plus an assumed CHF 10 per generated MWh for geological disposal, divided by the fraction of generated output earning revenue.
Costs are held unchanged when sales fall. This is a sensitivity, not a predicted curtailment allocation, market price or statutory disposal assessment.
Method: {"additional_disposal": 10, "capacity_factor": 0.85, "original_break_even": 152.73883761728933, "saleable_fraction": 0.75}
151 CHF2026/MWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Original owner break-even plus an assumed CHF 10 per generated MWh for geological disposal, divided by the fraction of generated output earning revenue.
Costs are held unchanged when sales fall. This is a sensitivity, not a predicted curtailment allocation, market price or statutory disposal assessment.
Method: {"additional_disposal": 10, "capacity_factor": 0.93, "original_break_even": 140.89033545666234, "saleable_fraction": 1}
201 CHF2026/MWh · 2050 screening; selected historical weather years
Original owner break-even plus an assumed CHF 10 per generated MWh for geological disposal, divided by the fraction of generated output earning revenue.
Costs are held unchanged when sales fall. This is a sensitivity, not a predicted curtailment allocation, market price or statutory disposal assessment.
Method: {"additional_disposal": 10, "capacity_factor": 0.93, "original_break_even": 140.89033545666234, "saleable_fraction": 0.75}
62 meters · Winter 2023/24, October–March
Fixed set of installation meters with complete quarter-hour readings throughout the winter.
Selected installation meters with ordinary utility control, not a national or household-weighted sample. No causal control-saving or future-peak claim.
Method: Count selected meters with 100% valid winter intervals.
Swiss residential load profiles 2023–2024, dataset.zipDataset on residential electricity load profiles in Switzerland, v1 21 July 2026Measured heating demand and repository planning boundaries
140.1 kW · Winter 2023/24, October–March
Recorded aggregate winter electricity divided by all 4,392 winter hours.
Selected installation meters with ordinary utility control, not a national or household-weighted sample. No causal control-saving or future-peak claim.
Method: 615306.566 kWh / 4392 h
Swiss residential load profiles 2023–2024, dataset.zipDataset on residential electricity load profiles in Switzerland, v1 21 July 2026Measured heating demand and repository planning boundaries
308.2 kW · Winter 2023/24, October–March
Maximum aggregate hourly mean; each hour sums four interval-start quarter-hour electricity readings.
Selected installation meters with ordinary utility control, not a national or household-weighted sample. No causal control-saving or future-peak claim.
Method: max(hourly aggregate kWh / 1 h)
Swiss residential load profiles 2023–2024, dataset.zipDataset on residential electricity load profiles in Switzerland, v1 21 July 2026Measured heating demand and repository planning boundaries
13.5 % · National GWR building export, 4 October 2026
Share of selected existing residential-use buildings with positive recorded GEBF.
Administrative coverage, not the proportion of heated floor area or energy use. Counts include unknown or absent heating systems.
Method: 244447 / 1808852 * 100
National public GWR building extract, selected complete ZIP membersMeasured heating demand and repository planning boundaries
1'550 m³ · Repository application safety report, May 2025
Application quantity in NTB 24-01, Appendix A.
Proposed unpackaged high-level-waste inventory for the existing fleet. New reactors, packaging volume and heat-driven repository area are separate.
NTB24-01: General licence application safety reportSind neue Kernkraftwerke im Tiefenlager eingerechnet?
550 m³ · Repository application safety report, May 2025
Application quantity in NTB 24-01, Appendix A.
Proposed unpackaged high-level-waste inventory for the existing fleet. New reactors, packaging volume and heat-driven repository area are separate.
NTB24-01: General licence application safety reportSind neue Kernkraftwerke im Tiefenlager eingerechnet?
2'500 m³ · Repository application safety report, May 2025
Application quantity in NTB 24-01, Appendix A.
Proposed unpackaged high-level-waste inventory for the existing fleet. New reactors, packaging volume and heat-driven repository area are separate.
NTB24-01: General licence application safety reportSind neue Kernkraftwerke im Tiefenlager eingerechnet?
2110 year · Illustrative new-reactor service schedule
A reactor starting in 2050 and operating for an assumed 60 years reaches the end of operation around 2110.
Calendar illustration before fuel cooling, packaging and disposal. It is neither a licence nor a guaranteed lifetime or disposal date.
Method: 2050 + 60 = 2110
Measured heating demand and repository planning boundariesNTB22-05 Model radioactive-waste inventory for repository application
11.7 TWh fuel · 2025 industry/services survey
Sum of published estimates across 41 grouped economic sectors, converted to fuel energy in TWh.
Experimental estimates; no joint confidence interval inferred. Includes building and process uses. Other fuels and excluded sectors are outside the total; electric replacement depends on service and efficiency.
Method: 42110 TJ / 3600 TJ per TWh
Energy consumption in Switzerland2025 by NOGA divisions: industry and services surveyIndustry fuel totals, generation price references and delivery gates
4.8 TWh fuel · 2025 industry/services survey
Sum of published estimates across 41 grouped economic sectors, converted to fuel energy in TWh.
Experimental estimates; no joint confidence interval inferred. Includes building and process uses. Other fuels and excluded sectors are outside the total; electric replacement depends on service and efficiency.
Method: 17380 TJ / 3600 TJ per TWh
Energy consumption in Switzerland2025 by NOGA divisions: industry and services surveyIndustry fuel totals, generation price references and delivery gates
16.5 TWh fuel · 2025 industry/services survey
Sum of published estimates across 41 grouped economic sectors, converted to fuel energy in TWh.
Experimental estimates; no joint confidence interval inferred. Includes building and process uses. Other fuels and excluded sectors are outside the total; electric replacement depends on service and efficiency.
Method: 59490 TJ / 3600 TJ per TWh
Energy consumption in Switzerland2025 by NOGA divisions: industry and services surveyIndustry fuel totals, generation price references and delivery gates
103 CHF/MWh · 2026 Q1
Reported generation-weighted Swiss day-ahead price for the measured technology group, excluding VAT.
Group remuneration reference, not total owner receipts, plant cost or profit. No price forecast, storage-arbitrage spread or certificate premium is inferred.
Reference market prices under EnFV Art15How Swiss reference market prices are calculated
39 CHF/MWh · 2026 Q2
Reported generation-weighted Swiss day-ahead price for the measured technology group, excluding VAT.
Group remuneration reference, not total owner receipts, plant cost or profit. No price forecast, storage-arbitrage spread or certificate premium is inferred.
Reference market prices under EnFV Art15How Swiss reference market prices are calculated
85 CHF/MWh · 2026 Q3
Reported generation-weighted Swiss day-ahead price for the measured technology group, excluding VAT.
Group remuneration reference, not total owner receipts, plant cost or profit. No price forecast, storage-arbitrage spread or certificate premium is inferred.
Reference market prices under EnFV Art15How Swiss reference market prices are calculated
117 CHF/MWh · 2026 Q1
Reported generation-weighted Swiss day-ahead price for the measured technology group, excluding VAT.
Group remuneration reference, not total owner receipts, plant cost or profit. No price forecast, storage-arbitrage spread or certificate premium is inferred.
Reference market prices under EnFV Art15How Swiss reference market prices are calculated
93 CHF/MWh · 2026 Q2
Reported generation-weighted Swiss day-ahead price for the measured technology group, excluding VAT.
Group remuneration reference, not total owner receipts, plant cost or profit. No price forecast, storage-arbitrage spread or certificate premium is inferred.
Reference market prices under EnFV Art15How Swiss reference market prices are calculated
133 CHF/MWh · 2026 Q3
Reported generation-weighted Swiss day-ahead price for the measured technology group, excluding VAT.
Group remuneration reference, not total owner receipts, plant cost or profit. No price forecast, storage-arbitrage spread or certificate premium is inferred.
Reference market prices under EnFV Art15How Swiss reference market prices are calculated
117 CHF/MWh · 2026 Q1
Reported generation-weighted Swiss day-ahead price for the measured technology group, excluding VAT.
Group remuneration reference, not total owner receipts, plant cost or profit. No price forecast, storage-arbitrage spread or certificate premium is inferred.
Reference market prices under EnFV Art15How Swiss reference market prices are calculated
89 CHF/MWh · 2026 Q2
Reported generation-weighted Swiss day-ahead price for the measured technology group, excluding VAT.
Group remuneration reference, not total owner receipts, plant cost or profit. No price forecast, storage-arbitrage spread or certificate premium is inferred.
Reference market prices under EnFV Art15How Swiss reference market prices are calculated
133 CHF/MWh · 2026 Q3
Reported generation-weighted Swiss day-ahead price for the measured technology group, excluding VAT.
Group remuneration reference, not total owner receipts, plant cost or profit. No price forecast, storage-arbitrage spread or certificate premium is inferred.
Reference market prices under EnFV Art15How Swiss reference market prices are calculated
117 CHF/MWh · 2026 Q1
Reported generation-weighted Swiss day-ahead price for the measured technology group, excluding VAT.
Group remuneration reference, not total owner receipts, plant cost or profit. No price forecast, storage-arbitrage spread or certificate premium is inferred.
Reference market prices under EnFV Art15How Swiss reference market prices are calculated
88 CHF/MWh · 2026 Q2
Reported generation-weighted Swiss day-ahead price for the measured technology group, excluding VAT.
Group remuneration reference, not total owner receipts, plant cost or profit. No price forecast, storage-arbitrage spread or certificate premium is inferred.
Reference market prices under EnFV Art15How Swiss reference market prices are calculated
131 CHF/MWh · 2026 Q3
Reported generation-weighted Swiss day-ahead price for the measured technology group, excluding VAT.
Group remuneration reference, not total owner receipts, plant cost or profit. No price forecast, storage-arbitrage spread or certificate premium is inferred.
Reference market prices under EnFV Art15How Swiss reference market prices are calculated
5.2 TWh · 2050 published scenario
Difference between Max-E and business as usual in Table 5, converted from PJ to TWh.
Conditional technology adoption, including immature processes. The summary uses about 6 TWh. Boundaries differ from WattInfo’s model; do not add this increment to a forecast already including industrial electrification.
Method: 18.6 PJ / 3.6 PJ per TWh
400 MW · Owner plan checked 23 October 2026; Q1 2031 target
BKW’s planned Mühleberg battery rating, as reported in the owner’s current project pipeline.
Planned nominal ratings. Usable energy, losses, degradation, all-in costs and firm commissioning remain unestablished.
Method: Operator project specification; no operating result.
Operator battery project pipeline and conditional commissioning dates
0.8 GWh · Owner plan checked 23 October 2026; Q1 2031 target
BKW’s planned Mühleberg battery rating, as reported in the owner’s current project pipeline.
Planned nominal ratings. Usable energy, losses, degradation, all-in costs and firm commissioning remain unestablished.
Method: 800 MWh / 1000 MWh per GWh
Operator battery project pipeline and conditional commissioning dates
2 hours · Owner plan checked 23 October 2026; Q1 2031 target
Nominal stored energy divided by planned power. Actual delivery depends on usable capacity and operation.
Planned nominal ratings. Usable energy, losses, degradation, all-in costs and firm commissioning remain unestablished.
Method: 800 MWh / 400 MW = 2 hours
Operator battery project pipeline and conditional commissioning dates
6.4 TWh · 19 October 2026 weekly observation
BFE reported stored electrical-energy equivalent for the Swiss total.
A dated stock observation, not a forecast or an uncommitted national reserve. Historical comparisons use each year’s nearest weekly observation and reported capacity.
Method: 6379 GWh / 1000 GWh per TWh
Reservoir energy and filling levels, official machine-readable history
71.7 % · 19 October 2026 weekly observation
Reported stored energy divided by reported capacity for the same observation.
A dated stock observation, not a forecast or an uncommitted national reserve. Historical comparisons use each year’s nearest weekly observation and reported capacity.
Method: 6379 GWh / 8895 GWh × 100
Reservoir energy and filling levels, official machine-readable history
23.6 billion CHF2026 · KS26 submission, 30 September 2026; 1 January 2026 prices
Published combined lifecycle total including accrued costs and federal waste costs. Post-operation is excluded.
Includes already incurred costs; independent assessment is pending. This is neither remaining cash need nor a fund shortfall. Existing-fleet cases do not price the proposed new reactors or 80-year extensions.
Method: 23602 / 1000
Kostenstudie 2026: MantelberichtKostenstudie 2026 eingereicht
1.6 billion CHF2026 · KS26 submission, 30 September 2026; 1 January 2026 prices
Submitted post-operation lifecycle total, separate from decommissioning and disposal.
Includes already incurred costs; independent assessment is pending. This is neither remaining cash need nor a fund shortfall. Existing-fleet cases do not price the proposed new reactors or 80-year extensions.
Method: 1629 / 1000
15.6 EUR2015 billion · January 2025 audit; 2015 euros
EDF overnight estimate including reported provisions, as reproduced in Table 2 of the audit.
Dated project estimates with overlapping boundaries; do not add the rows. Not final outturns, lifetime electricity prices or Swiss offers. Owner costs, provisions and financing must retain their stated scope.
EPR industry: renewed momentum and persistent risks — full audit report
19.3 EUR2015 billion · January 2025 audit; 2015 euros
EDF total investment estimate at completion in the November 2023 column of Table 2.
Dated project estimates with overlapping boundaries; do not add the rows. Not final outturns, lifetime electricity prices or Swiss offers. Owner costs, provisions and financing must retain their stated scope.
EPR industry: renewed momentum and persistent risks — full audit report
20.4 EUR2015 billion · January 2025 audit; 2015 euros
Auditor’s broader investment estimate at completion after the adjustments discussed on page 28.
Dated project estimates with overlapping boundaries; do not add the rows. Not final outturns, lifetime electricity prices or Swiss offers. Owner costs, provisions and financing must retain their stated scope.
EPR industry: renewed momentum and persistent risks — full audit report
89.3 % · January–December 2024 heat balance
Heat delivered divided by heat charged minus the increase in stored heat, using published annual totals.
Thermal efficiency, not electricity round-trip efficiency. Rounded report totals give about 89%; the separate public-data reconstruction also gives about 89%.
Method: 100 × 29917 / (34044 − 529)
DTU Høje Taastrup measured 2024 report official repository alternateCost boundaries and heat-storage reproduction
90 % · January–December 2025 heat balance
Inventory-adjusted annual heat efficiency reported by DTU for the Danish store in 2025.
Reported measurement with unresolved public-data reproduction. Flow gaps could contribute; the cause and corrected measurements are not established. It is not a Swiss electricity-saving or profit estimate.
Høje Taastrup 2025 measurement report: full originalCost boundaries and heat-storage reproduction
Swiss final electricity use · 2021–2025 average. Includes all seasons and hours; excludes grid losses.