How much electricity will we need?

Electricity demand and total energy use

Electricity is one form of energy. Replacing an oil boiler or a petrol car changes which energy source we use. It also changes how efficiently we use it. The introductory guide explains this with a heat pump.

Our model asks how much electricity reaches homes, businesses and other users. This is called final consumption. The supply calculation must also cover electricity lost in the grid and electricity used to pump water into storage reservoirs.

Electrification changes demand

The central case models more electric transport and heating. It also changes population, activity and efficiency. The result is a conditional scenario. It is not an official forecast.

The model includes conversion efficiency and charging losses. For heat pumps, it uses seasonal performance rather than a best-case laboratory value. These are model inputs. Their future values are uncertain. The source register includes the equations and full parameter files.

Different assumptions, different demand

These cases use different assumptions in the same model. They are not the lower and upper limits of a statistical forecast. They show why a debate about demand must also be a debate about its inputs.

Demand outside the model

The default model adds no extra demand for data centres, hydrogen, e-fuels or district heating. It does not explicitly model the conversion of aviation to electricity or synthetic fuels. These limits do not mean that these uses will disappear. Their future demand remains outside this model.

Our assessment: use these scenarios to test a supply plan. Do not choose one number and treat it as certain. Before presenting a national plan, specify weather sensitivity, industrial change and any new fuel-production demand.